Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to increased net supply and other economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Recent data indicates that while the U.S. dollar has rebounded, short-term depreciation pressure has not been fully released [1] - The CBO estimates that the "Great Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Following the resolution of U.S. debt issues, net issuance of debt may reach around $1.25 trillion between July and September, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. dollar experienced a 13% depreciation during its lowest point this year, which is not particularly significant compared to historical depreciation cycles since 2000 [1] - The report anticipates that the increase in net supply of U.S. Treasuries will lead to a rise in the term premium by 50-60 basis points [1] - It is projected that the U.S. dollar index may decline by 2-3 points as a result of these economic dynamics [1]

2025.06. 04 来源：新华社 特朗普政府扣留资金被认定违法 本文字数：1773，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ：白宫与非党派的财政监管机构爆发争论，揭示特朗普政府的财政困局。 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 一场围绕财政政策的激烈交锋正在美国上演。 当地时间6月3日，白宫预算管理办公室（OMB）在一份内部备忘录中明确指示美国交通部"完全不 必理会"政府问责办公室（GAO）的监管意见，将特朗普政府与独立监管机构的矛盾进一步公开化。 这场冲突的导火索是GAO在5月裁定特朗普政府"非法推迟"电动车基础设施资金的拨付。目前， GAO已对特朗普政府展开近40项调查，重点集中在财政支出削减措施上。 GAO是美国国会的非党 派机构，主要负责审计、评估和调查联邦政府的支出和运营。 同日，白宫与负责为立法提供预算和经济分析的国会预算办公室（CBO）也爆发激烈争论。CBO在 一项分析中预估， 特朗普政府提出的"美丽大法案"（Big Beautiful Bill）可能导致联邦赤字增加数 万亿美元。 当地时间4日，OMB主任沃特（Russell Vought）将出席众议院拨款委员会听证会，将就政府控制 财政支出的一系列举措接受质询。 ...

以10年期美债收益率为例——它是抵押贷款、小企业贷款及其他常见消费和企业借贷的基准。如下图所 示，尽管在全球金融危机前美联储加息阶段以及新冠疫情后通胀飙升时期，该收益率出现过短暂飙升， 但自80年代中期以来，其总体呈稳步下降趋势。 图片来源：Thomas A. Ferrara—Newsday RM/Getty Images 美国共和党"大而美"法案里提出的减税举措，正促使投资者像2007年那样抛售美债。然而，此次长期债 券收益率近期的大幅飙升，或许并非短暂上扬，而是预示着美国借款人未来将面临的利率走势。 不过，摩根士丹利投资管理公司（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）投资组合解决方案部门首席 投资官吉姆·卡隆（Jim Caron）认为，利率不会回落到历史低点。 他对《财富》杂志表示："要适应更高的收益率。我的意思是，我们必须适应更陡峭的（收益率）曲 线，也必须适应通胀率不会长期低于目标水平。" 对物价持续攀升感到厌倦的选民助力唐纳德·特朗普再次入主白宫，这位总统承诺降低美国民众的借贷 成本。尽管特朗普多次批评美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔和美联储维持利率不变的做法，但财政部长 ...

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill with a narrow margin, which has sparked controversy due to significant cuts to social security funding and concerns over increasing federal deficits [1][2][3] - The bill aims to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, provide new tax deductions, increase defense spending, and allocate more funds for immigration enforcement while cutting green energy incentives and raising eligibility thresholds for medical assistance and food aid [1][2] Group 1 - The bill includes a reduction of nearly $800 billion in medical assistance funding, which is expected to have a significant political risk as it affects a large portion of the population relying on this program for health insurance [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the bill becomes law, the lowest 10% of households will see a decrease in resources, while the highest 10% will benefit [2] - The bill is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3 trillion compared to a baseline scenario where Trump's tax cuts would not be extended [3] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenses [3] - The bond market has shown volatility, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.15%, reflecting investor concerns over the federal government's debt issues [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed the need for the government to adhere to fiscal discipline, warning that the current deficit levels are unsustainable [4]

Beneficiaries - High-income individuals will see an average tax reduction of approximately $2,800 by 2026, with over two-thirds of the total tax cuts benefiting those earning $217,000 or more annually. Individuals earning $1.1 million or more will receive nearly a quarter of the total tax cuts [2] - Families with children will have their child tax credit increased by $500 to $2,500 until 2028, but an estimated 4.5 million children may not qualify due to new requirements. Children under 8 will receive $1,000 to help parents open "growth and investment accounts" known as "MAGA" savings accounts [2] - Car buyers will be allowed to temporarily deduct up to $10,000 in auto loan interest when purchasing American-made vehicles [2] - Overtime workers will not be taxed on their overtime pay if the bill passes, aligning it with regular wages that are subject to federal and state income taxes, Social Security, and Medicare withholdings [2] - Service industry workers will benefit as tips will not be taxed under the new legislation, with unreported tip income potentially amounting to $23 billion according to a 2018 report by the Treasury Department's Office of Tax Administration [2] Victims - Individuals earning less than $50,000 will face losses of about $700, with those earning between $17,000 and $51,000 losing more than $1,000 due to cuts in assistance programs such as Medicaid and student loans [3] - Beneficiaries of nutrition and medical assistance programs may see up to 7.6 million Americans lose health insurance over the next decade due to adjustments in Medicaid, with spending reduced by approximately $698 billion [3] - Individuals with student loan debt will be affected as the Biden administration's student loan relief measures will be repealed, limiting repayment plans to only two options and imposing significant caps on loans for parents and undergraduates [3] - The federal government is projected to see an increase in the deficit by $3.8 trillion from 2026 to 2034 due to the provisions of the bill [4] - Undocumented immigrants will face new fees for asylum applications and work permits, along with restrictions on state-funded medical assistance for undocumented children [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, expressed the goal of reducing the federal deficit by approximately 1% annually [1] Group 1 - The administration aims to implement a strategy that focuses on consistent annual reductions in the federal deficit [1] - This approach is part of a broader fiscal policy to ensure long-term economic stability [1] - The emphasis on a gradual reduction indicates a commitment to managing the national debt responsibly [1]