在《 平等是真正的答案么？ （上） 》中，我回顾了《平等之魂》（ The Spirit Level ）的核心论点，并指出它的相关性证据存在局限：平等更多是一种 富裕、安全社会的"奢侈品"，并非普世可行的政策目标。北欧国家的平等是历史、资源与地缘政治环境的产物，而非所有国家都能效仿的蓝图。 那么问题来了：在富裕、安全条件最完备的国家——美国，这一理论为何却失灵？为什么作为全球最富有、最安全的国家，美国仍然是经合组织中最不平等 的成员？这正是我们需要探讨的"美国例外"。 美国是世界上最富有、军事最强大的国家，却也是发达国家中最不平等的。如果财富与安全是实现平等的先决条件，美国本应率先进入"平等成熟期"。但事 实恰恰相反：美国长期容忍巨大的贫富差距。要理解这一点，我们必须从历史、帝国逻辑与文化三个角度来审视美国。 并非历史唯一 美国并不是唯一一个容忍不平等以追求财富的国家。历史上有许多类似案例： 工业革命时期的英国 ：疯狂追求工业化与殖民扩张，城市底层陷于贫困。 改开后的中国 ：明确提出"让一部分人先富起来"，以增长为先。 罗马帝国 ：依赖征服与贡赋维持社会运转，国内贫富悬殊。 美国并不独一无二，它只是延续了大国与 ...

Group 1 - The forum highlighted the importance of the global financial system in mitigating geopolitical risks and ensuring the stability of international trade and supply chains [4] - The discussions emphasized the need for China to enhance its participation in global economic governance and strengthen international cooperation to counter systemic risks [4] - The forum presented various expert analyses on the definition and dimensions of geopolitical economic risks, noting the lack of a unified academic definition [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis revealed that geopolitical economic risks have a multifaceted impact on macroeconomics and financial markets, with positive effects on CPI and negative impacts on PPI, stock markets, exports, and FDI [10] - Research indicated that geopolitical economic risks lead to significant adverse spillover effects on China's financial markets and real economy, with key transmission channels identified as exchange rates, real estate, and credit markets [13][19] - The findings suggested that a moderately accommodative monetary policy could mitigate the negative impacts of geopolitical economic risks, while stabilizing the real estate and bond markets could prevent a ratchet effect [13] Group 3 - The forum discussed the transformation of the global trade and investment system due to geopolitical economic risks, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and a shift in trade structures [18] - Empirical studies showed that trade barriers have reached peak levels since World War II, with significant adjustments in international trade patterns, particularly in U.S.-China trade [18][19] - The analysis pointed out that geopolitical risks have accelerated the restructuring of supply chains towards "nearshoring, friend-shoring, and diversification," emphasizing the need for security in supply chain management [19] Group 4 - The discussions included the impact of financial sanctions and geopolitical economic risks on the global payment system, highlighting the inefficiencies and risks associated with the SWIFT system [22] - The analysis indicated that the rise of geopolitical risks has led to a diversification of reserve currencies, with emerging currencies like the RMB gaining traction, although the USD remains a dominant safe haven [25][29] - The forum underscored the necessity for structural reforms and infrastructure optimization to enhance the RMB's international competitiveness and safe-haven attributes [30]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins is reshaping the global financial landscape in the digital age, reflecting a dual tension between market credit and state credit, and leading to a new equilibrium in monetary functions and governance [1][2][10]. Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins represent a compromise between market and state credit, allowing for the issuance of "quasi-currency" under regulatory frameworks in places like the US and Hong Kong [11]. - The evolution of stablecoins has transitioned from algorithmic stability and collateralized assets to a mainstream model anchored by fiat currencies, indicating a reliance on state credit for stability [10][11]. Group 2: Impact on Global Financial System - Stablecoins may lead to a redefinition of monetary functions, pushing sovereign currencies to reassess their roles and promoting a "functional division" in the global monetary system [12]. - The distribution of financial power could shift, with the potential emergence of a multi-currency system comprising "sovereign currencies + scenario-based stablecoins," challenging the dominance of a single currency [13]. - Stablecoins signify a transformation in the relationship between state, market, and technology, suggesting that monetary power is no longer solely state-controlled but is influenced by technological intermediaries [14]. Group 3: US Interest in Stablecoins - The US's enthusiasm for stablecoins is closely tied to maintaining the dollar's dominance, as stablecoins can convert market credit into monetary power, especially in light of rising national debt [15][16]. - The use of short-term US Treasury bonds as collateral for stablecoins could alleviate liquidity pressures on US debt, reinforcing the dollar's global status [15]. - The US is positioning itself to dominate the "metaverse currency" landscape, with stablecoins potentially becoming the universal currency in digital economies, thereby extending dollar hegemony into the digital realm [18]. Group 4: China's Strategic Response - China should develop a stablecoin strategy that aligns with its economic context, focusing on supply chain advantages and ensuring that stablecoins serve the real economy [19][20]. - Collaboration between stablecoins and the digital yuan is essential, with both aiming to enhance the integration of digital and real economies [20]. - A strategy of "innovation-led + inclusive collaboration" is recommended for developing a stablecoin ecosystem that balances risk and efficiency while leveraging China's manufacturing strengths [21].

Group 1 - The conflict between Trump and Musk is not merely personal but reflects deeper political and economic turmoil in the U.S. that could lead to significant consequences [1][2] - Musk's revelation of Epstein's undisclosed files, allegedly obtained from the White House, indicates a serious power struggle that transcends simple disputes [2] - Trump's aggressive actions against Musk's electric vehicle industry subsidies represent a direct challenge to Musk's influence and the broader economic landscape [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing severe challenges, with April's unemployment rising to 240,000 and imports declining by 16%, while the Federal Reserve refuses to lower interest rates [3] - Trump's removal of trusted economic advisors amid a crisis of confidence exacerbates economic uncertainty, leading to increased pressure from Wall Street and the deep state [3] - Trump's tax cuts are facing funding issues, with a failed proposal for global tariffs, forcing reliance on money printing, which worsens the fiscal crisis [5] Group 3 - Japan's debt crisis poses a significant risk to the U.S. financial system, as a potential sale of $1 trillion in U.S. bonds could lead to a substantial depreciation of the dollar [5] - Trump's foreign policy has led to increased isolation for the U.S., particularly in Europe, as tensions rise over trade and military commitments [6] - The U.S. is accelerating the implementation of stablecoin policies, with global stablecoin transaction volumes reaching $27 trillion, indicating a shift in the financial landscape [7] Group 4 - The issuance of U.S. stablecoins tied to government bonds could enhance demand for U.S. debt, transforming its role in the global financial system [7] - The competition for pricing power in the digital currency market is intensifying, with China also seeking to establish its influence in the next 30 years [7] - The interconnectedness of Japan's debt crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and stablecoin developments suggests that the current U.S. political struggles are part of a larger global shift [7]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns that increasing investor concerns about U.S. assets, following Trump's tariffs, could lead to significant disruptions in the global financial system [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Investors are experiencing heightened risk aversion towards U.S. assets, leading to a "unconventional shift" away from traditional safe havens like the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The unpredictability of U.S. policies is causing investors to demand higher risk premiums for U.S. assets, potentially undermining confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The ECB notes that asset valuations remain high, particularly after market rebounds triggered by policy adjustments from Trump [1] - Concentrated investments in U.S. tech stocks indicate that the market is still vulnerable to sudden volatility [1] Group 3: Risk Assessment - The ECB highlights that investors may be underestimating the likelihood and impact of adverse scenarios, especially as rising uncertainty makes tail risks more apparent [1]