美联储利率决策

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鲍威尔最新表态:都是因为特朗普,所以才没降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 10:00
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing unprecedented complexity due to the impact of tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, which are significantly influencing interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - The announcement of new tariffs in April has led to a comprehensive adjustment of the Federal Reserve's economic forecasting models, necessitating a reevaluation of inflation prospects [3]. - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from June indicate that policymakers discussed the effects of tariffs in depth, ultimately deciding to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time [3][5]. - The policy statement highlighted "changes in the global trade environment" as a new risk factor [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's remarks, the bond market reacted with a 5 basis point drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which later rebounded by 3 basis points, reflecting investor confusion regarding policy outlook [5]. - The U.S. labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate at a historical low of 3.8%, while manufacturing activity indices have been below the neutral level for two consecutive months [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for imported goods increased by 1.2% month-over-month, significantly above historical averages, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Expectations - Despite Powell's current stance against rate cuts, market expectations suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut in September, with uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the cut [6]. - Powell emphasized the need for data reliance and policy flexibility in response to the evolving trade policy landscape, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [8]. - The intertwining of political and economic factors is expected to complicate future monetary policy decisions, as noted by a former Fed official [9].
美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%
news flash· 2025-07-03 22:05
Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is 4.7% [1] - For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 33%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 64% and a 50 basis point cut is 3% [1] Group 2 - The projected interest rate probabilities for the upcoming FOMC meetings are as follows: - 3.25%-3.50%: 0.0% - 3.50%-3.75%: 0.0% (September) 2.6% (October) - 3.75%-4.00%: 0.0% (July) 3.0% (September) 55.8% (October) - 4.00%-4.25%: 4.7% (July) 64.0% (September) 37.1% (October) - 4.25%-4.50% (current rate): 95.3% (July) 33.0% (September) 4.4% (October) [4]
美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人超预期 4、5月合计上修1.6万人 失业率意外降至4.1%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-03 13:23
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market demonstrates strong resilience, with June employment growth exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month and a further decline in the unemployment rate, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in its next interest rate decision [1][5]. Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with April and May's non-farm employment figures revised upward by 16,000 [1][5]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [3][8]. - The significant growth in state and local government employment was a key driver for the better-than-expected data, while private sector employment only increased by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased from 170.51 million to 173.38 million, with the number of unemployed individuals decreasing from 7.237 million to 7.1025 million [9]. - Disparities in unemployment rates were noted among different demographic groups, with the unemployment rate for African Americans rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites decreased to 3.6% [9]. Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.4%, with the annual wage growth rate at 3.7%, also lower than the revised 3.8% [11]. - The moderate wage growth may alleviate some inflationary pressures for the Federal Reserve [11]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the likelihood of a cut during the July 29-30 meeting dropping to near zero, while the probability for a September cut is around 75% [12]. - The market anticipates a total reduction of 50 basis points within the year, down from a prior expectation of 64 basis points [12]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to 4.261% [16].
美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为74.7%
news flash· 2025-07-02 23:18
Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in July is 25.3% [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 7.6% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by September is 69.7% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis points rate cut by September is 22.8% [1]
美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.8%
news flash· 2025-06-30 22:09
美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.8% 金十数据7月1日讯,据CME"美联储观察":美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.8%,降息25个基点的概率为20.2%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为5.3%,累计降息25个基点的概率为75.9%,累计降息50个基点的概率为18.8%。 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 13.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 60.3% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 20.2% | 75.9% | 24.6% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 79.8% | 5.3% | 1.5% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 ...
PCE数据公布前,美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.3%
news flash· 2025-06-27 12:33
Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 20.7% [1] Interest Rate Predictions - For the upcoming FOMC meetings, the probabilities for maintaining or adjusting interest rates are as follows: - 3.25%-3.50%: 0.0% probability for all three meetings [4] - 3.50%-3.75%: 0.0% for July, 12.3% for September [4] - 3.75%-4.00%: 0.0% for July, 18.5% for September, 54.8% for October [4] - 4.00%-4.25%: 20.7% for July, 73.3% for September, 30.1% for October [4] - 4.25%-4.50% (current rate): 79.3% for July, 8.2% for September, 2.7% for October [4]
美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.3%
news flash· 2025-06-26 22:08
Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is 20.7% [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 6% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by September is 74.9% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by September is 19.1% [1]
美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为81.4%
news flash· 2025-06-24 22:07
@ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为81.4% 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 9.8% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 15.2% | 50.4% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 18.6% | 70.0% | 34.6% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 81.4% | 14.8% | 5.3% | 金十数据6月25日讯,据CME"美联储观察":美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为81.4%,降息25个基点的概率为18.6%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为14.8%,累计降息25个基点的概率为70%,累计降息50个基点的概率为15.2%。 ...
特朗普空袭伊朗,却给美联储出了一道“送命题”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-23 09:17
美联储决策者们的不确定性在上周美联储最新的"点阵图"中已显而易见,该图表概述了未来的利率走 向。尽管有八名官员认为2025年仍将有两次降息,但有七名官员预计根本不会降息——这一数字高于此 前持此看法的四名官员。 随着美联储官员们为7月的下一次会议做准备,并衡量特朗普的贸易、税收和移民政策对通胀及经济增 长路径的影响,特朗普上周末对伊朗三个核设施的打击,又为这些讨论注入了新一层未知数。 一些美联储观察人士担心,油价的持续上涨将加剧特朗普关税已在美国国内造成的通胀混乱。 摩根大通的分析师曾警告称,一场持久的冲突以及关键的霍尔木兹海峡可能被关闭,或将油价推高至每 桶120美元,从而将美国通胀率推回到5%左右。 播客:伊朗遇袭难倒美联储 下载mp3 美联储本已在努力应对未来货币政策路径的诸多不确定性,而美国总统特朗普上周末对伊朗核设施的打 击,可能会让这条路径在短期内变得更加扑朔迷离。 在特朗普决定发动袭击前的几天里,美联储内部一位有影响力的理事确实更响亮地支持降息,他驳斥了 关于特朗普关税可能导致长期通胀的担忧。 另一方面,华尔街也流传着一种观点,认为这场冲突可能促使美联储比预期更早地降息。 牛津经济研究院首席美国 ...