Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing political polarization in the United States since Trump's presidency, highlighting his aggressive actions against the Democratic Party and the resulting tensions across the country [1][3][9] - Trump's administration has been characterized by the removal of over 80 regulations from the previous administration and the revocation of security clearances for key Democratic figures, which has intensified the political conflict [3][5] - The article notes that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated due to Trump's trade policies, leading him to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, which has been repeatedly denied by Chairman Powell [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is growing, as he has successfully appointed members who favor interest rate cuts, potentially increasing his power over monetary policy [5][7] - The Democratic Party is actively opposing Trump through legal challenges and public protests, indicating a significant mobilization against his administration's policies [7][9] - The article concludes that the ongoing political strife is overshadowing the concerns of ordinary Americans, with both parties entrenched in a battle for power [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Board member, Kuger, announced his resignation effective August 8, 2023, and will return to Georgetown University as a professor [2][3] - President Trump reiterated his call for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign, criticizing Powell's decisions on interest rates [5] - The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with 9 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [5][7] Group 2 - Kuger was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board in September 2023, with a term originally set to last until January 31, 2024, but his early departure allows President Trump to make new appointments sooner [3] - This marks the first time in over 30 years that two Federal Reserve Board members expressed differing opinions in a vote regarding interest rate decisions [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump has accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director, Erica McEntyre, of artificially inflating employment data ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections and has called for her dismissal [1][2] - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Notably, the employment data for May and June was revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The BLS reported that the revisions were based on subsequent reports from businesses and government agencies, as well as seasonal adjustments [2] Group 2 - Trump claimed that the employment report was compiled by officials appointed by Biden and alleged that McEntyre and the BLS had "falsified" employment data before the last election, suggesting that the job growth for 2023 was overestimated by approximately 818,000 jobs [2] - Following the release of the employment data, Labor Secretary Laura Chavez-Dremer announced that Deputy BLS Director William Wiatrowski would serve as acting director until a successor is found [2][3] - Trump has also criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the Fed's actions, including interest rate decisions, are politically motivated to influence the upcoming elections [4]

Core Viewpoint - The employment data released today is significant but will not alter the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates this week, with expectations for one rate cut later this year [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The employment market is showing signs of slowing down from previously strong levels, as indicated by the substantial revisions in today's employment data [1] - The Federal Reserve needs to further assess the trends in hiring before making any decisions [1] Group 2: Inflation Risks - The greater risk this week lies in inflation rates, which currently face dual risks of either continuing to decline or potentially accelerating again [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - If tariff policies have an impact, the Federal Reserve cannot ignore their effects, and businesses will require time to adjust prices in response to tariff increases [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔在当天举行的记者会上说，"我们有两位反对者"，他们表达了自己的立场。关于 降息，每个人都有其想法和论点。不过，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数成员认为目前的通胀水平略高于 目标，而当前的利率则处于适度限制水平。鲍威尔表示，"仍有很多不确定因素"，如果降息过早，可能 无法完全解决通胀问题。 声明称，在考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以 及风险平衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒两位美联储理事投票反对继续维持利率不变。他们主张 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。此外，阿德里安娜·库格勒理事缺席未投票。 《华尔街日报》报道说，这是自1993年以来首次出现多位美联储理事在联邦基金利率决策过程中投 反对票的情况。美联储利率决策由12名成员组成的联邦公开市场委员会投票决定，其中7人是美联储理 事。 中新社纽约7月30日电 (记者 王帆)美国联邦储备委员会30日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。这是美联储今年连续第五次"按兵不动"。此次决策过程中，有两位理事 罕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, amid significant political pressure for a rate cut, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions and inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to keep interest rates unchanged aligns with market expectations and reflects the Fed's careful consideration of the economic impact of tariffs on inflation and employment [1][2]. - The policy statement showed little change, signaling no immediate intention to lower rates, despite two officials dissenting and calling for a 25 basis point cut [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with Q2 GDP growth at 3.0%, but a slowdown in private sector and consumer demand from 1.9% to 1.2% [4]. - Concerns about inflation persist, as tariffs may push prices higher, potentially keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the fifth consecutive year [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Diverging Opinions - The Fed faces internal divisions regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation, with some officials arguing that current rates are too high for the economic situation [6]. - The potential for a rate cut in September hinges on the influence of tariffs on inflation and signs of weakness in the labor market, with investors estimating a two-thirds probability of a cut [5][6].

美联储FOMC声明：美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼反对维持利率不变。 ...

FOMC声明前，美联储本次按兵不动几成定局，9月降息概率接近60% 金十数据7月31日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储今夜维持利率不变的概率为96.9%，降息25个基点的概率为3.1%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为40.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.8%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.9% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.8% | 28.2% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 3.1% | 57.9% | 49.6% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 96.9% | 40.2% | 21.3% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

钛媒体App 7月30日消息，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.9%(与数据公布前 一致)，降息25个基点的概率为2.1%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为37.9%(数据公布前为34%)，累计 降息25个基点的概率为60.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.3%。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 97.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.1% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Projections - In September, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.0% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 64.7% [1] - The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.4% [1]