热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0656，下调18点。 美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率为75.6% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。到 明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为41.9%，维持利率不变的概率为49.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 8.3%。 哈塞特谈接掌美联储：考虑特朗普意见 但坚持决策独立性 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，如果他被选中领导美联储，他会考虑特朗普的政策意见，但 美联储的利率决定仍将保持独立。哈塞特周日表示："总统对于我们应该做什么，持有非常强烈且有充 分根据的看法。但最终，美联储的职责是保持独立，并与理事会和FOMC的成员们合作，就利率应处于 的水平达成集体共识。"哈塞特表示："就算当了美联储主席，每天也会很乐意与总统交谈，直到我们俩 都去世，因为和他交谈'太有趣了'。"然而，他驳斥了总统的意见将与FOMC有投票权的成员具有同等分 量的说法，称政策制定者可以自由地拒绝他的意见并"以不同的方式投票"。哈塞特说："不，不，他不 会有任 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主席凯文.哈塞特表示，如果被选中领导美联储，他会考虑美国总统特朗普的政策 意见，但央行的利率决策仍将保持独立。 即便担任美联储主席，"我也很乐意每天和总统交谈，直到我们俩都去见上帝，因为和他交谈实在太有 意思了，"哈塞特表示。 白宫首席经济顾问哈塞特上周日称，总统"对我们应当采取的行动有着非常坚定且理由充分的看 法"。"但最终，美联储的职责是保持独立性，并与联邦储备理事会以及联邦公开市场委员会的成员们合 作，就利率应处于何种水平达成集体共识，"他表示。 然而，他驳斥了"总统的意见将与联邦公开市场委员会投票成员具有同等分量"的说法，称政策制定者可 自由拒绝总统意见，并"投出不同的票"。"不，不，他不会有任何分量，"哈塞特称。"只有当他的意见 正确、且基于数据时，才有分量。" 哈塞特是在回应关于特朗普上周五言论的提问。特朗普当时表示，他应该能够就美联储设定的利率提出 建议。 特朗普及其高级顾问数月来一直在敦促美联储主席杰伊.鲍威尔降低利率，同时也在权衡他自己选择接 替鲍威尔的人选——后者将于明年5月结束任期。 哈塞特被视为这一职位的热门人选，不过特朗普上周也与前美联储理事凯文.沃什会面。特朗普在 ...

目前国际金价停在4200美元，国内银行金条报价则在970元到1016元之间，这才是资本对峙的真实场，期货市场的成交量在缓慢增加，显示出大资金在暗中 调整，皆因美联储的利率决策影响深远。 黄金战略价值凸显，但12月14日967元/克报价显回调压力 今天我逛了一家金店，看到一条项链，价格1325元一克，银行的实物金条报价却是1016元，同样一克黄金，价格相差三百多，让我想起买水时，小卖部卖三 块，水库只要一块五，国际金价卡在4200美元附近，恍若暴风雨来临前的平静。 菜百金店的黄金价格为每克1302元，铂金每克560元，银价定在每克13.73元，中国黄金的金价每克基础价为971元，零售价稍高，为987元，回收价为968元 每克。 周大生和潮宏基这两家金店的黄金价格较为接近，均为每克1348元，铂金价格为704元每克，宝庆银楼的黄金报价较低，为每克1258元，铂金价格为368元每 克。 太阳金店和齐鲁金店的黄金价格分别为1149元和1146元每克，铂金价格分别为519元和559元每克，价格反映了不同品牌金店的市场定价策略，以及贵金属的 供需状况。 这三百多块的差价并不新鲜，背后的逻辑往往不易被理解，在金店支付的13 ...

With the Federal Reserve set to announce its final policy decision of 2025 on Wednesday, investors are rotating into defensive positions. More than the rate-cut possibility (which is around 90% as per... ...

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar has shown consolidation against the U.S. dollar during the Asian trading session [1] Group 1 - The Singapore dollar's performance indicates stability in the currency market [1]

The monthly ADP National Employment Report for November is set to be released at 8:15 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with Chairman Powell facing significant internal division regarding the direction of monetary policy [2][3] - Powell is considering two options: either to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy or to maintain current rates to combat inflation, which is currently around 3% [2][3] - The employment market is cooling down, creating a "stagflation" scenario that complicates the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Key allies of Powell, such as New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly, have expressed views that support a balanced approach to interest rate adjustments [2] - Following these comments, market expectations for a rate cut in December surged from 40% to 70% [2] - However, there is notable opposition within the Federal Reserve, with a slight majority of officials supporting further rate cuts, as indicated by the September dot plot [2] Group 3 - Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan highlighted the asymmetrical risks of current interest rates being near neutral, emphasizing the challenges of responding to potential inflation rebounds [3] - The article discusses strategies for Powell, including signaling caution in future rate cuts while potentially waiting for more data after the government shutdown [4] Group 4 - The discussion transitions to the stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors and the value of quantitative data in making investment decisions [7][11] - The article suggests that investors should focus on the underlying data rather than market rumors or subjective feelings, drawing parallels between Powell's challenges and those faced by retail investors [13] Group 5 - The conclusion stresses the uncertainty in financial markets and the necessity of interpreting data accurately to gain a competitive edge [13]

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the gold market will depend on several key factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December and upcoming economic data, particularly the November CPI report scheduled for release on December 18 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 24, the dollar index slightly retreated, trading around 100.120, while gold prices were at $4066.81 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.05% [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $4076.69 and a low of $4039.72 during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. employment data showed a "strong but weak" trend, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly above the expected 50,000, but with downward revisions of 33,000 for July and August [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with probabilities swinging between 40% and 74% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace process and developments in the Middle East are influencing market sentiment. The U.S. proposed a "28-point peace plan" for Ukraine, which has led to a decrease in geopolitical risk [3][4]. - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly following discussions on a ceasefire involving Hamas and the death of a Hezbollah leader, has provided support for gold prices due to increased geopolitical risks [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is at a critical juncture, with $4148 acting as a significant support/resistance level. A stable position above this level could lead to testing above $4200, while a drop below $4040 may trigger a decline towards $4000 or lower [7]. - The demand for physical gold in major Asian markets remains weak, and fluctuations in interest rates are hindering potential buyers, which may limit upward movement in gold prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions ahead of the December policy meeting, with members showing differing stances on interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a rate cut, which increased market expectations for a December rate reduction, with the probability rising from below 30% to over 60% [1]. - Since the October 29 policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell has remained silent, while 5 out of 12 voting members have expressed a preference to keep rates unchanged, indicating a nearly even split among policymakers [1]. - The current situation highlights the Fed's dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [1]. Group 2: Shift in Market Focus - Investors are shifting from a focus on the Fed's overall consensus to calculating individual policymakers' voting tendencies, reflecting the recent volatility in rate cut expectations [2]. - The traditional consensus decision-making model of the Fed, which has been a hallmark since Powell took over in 2018, is now being tested [2]. - Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, noted that Powell's silence allows each committee member to express their views, which is beneficial for healthy debate [2]. Group 3: Increase in Dissenting Votes - The number of dissenting votes has significantly increased this year, breaking records during Powell's tenure, with no unanimous decisions since June [3]. - Research indicates that low dissent levels can convey decision-making confidence, while critics argue that it may suppress important viewpoints due to "groupthink" [3]. - Fed Governor Waller acknowledged the increase in dissenting votes as a sign of reduced groupthink, emphasizing the importance of diverse opinions in decision-making [3]. Group 4: Cautious Stance from Doves - An increasing number of policymakers are expressing caution, with 5 out of 12 voting officials indicating a preference to maintain current rates next month [4]. - Fed Governor Barr stated the need for careful consideration of monetary policy, reflecting a shift among previously dovish members [4]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has not voted dissentingly in three years, indicated he would do so if necessary, highlighting a willingness to diverge from consensus [4][5]. Group 5: Uncertainty Surrounding December Decision - The decision for December is becoming one of the closest votes in years, with uncertainty prevailing in macroeconomic and monetary policy contexts [6]. - Some economists believe Williams' recent comments have solidified expectations for a rate cut, while others remain uncertain, suggesting a 50-50 chance for the outcome [6].

波士顿联储行长Susan Collins在暗示可能倾向于维持利率不变的一天后表示，她尚未决定在美联储下次 政策会议上如何投票。"我还没有做出决定，我不会在真正参加会议之前做出决定，"Collins周六在波士 顿联储年度经济会议间隙对记者表示。"还有数据将公布。"作为今年拥有美联储利率决策委员会投票权 的成员，Collins本周早些时候表示，由于通胀居高不下且当前政策仅具有温和限制性，她对12月降息犹 豫不决。（智通财经） ...