Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Macro and Financial - Treasury Bonds: Bullish (Slightly) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On May 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics released April's major macro - economic data. Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable, with fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12th, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. The 90 - day window period brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain. On Monday, treasury bond futures rose overall, and the news that state - owned banks will cut deposit rates is favorable for the bulls. Treasury bond futures may be bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2506 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Monday, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 43 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 92 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Monday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.54% (1.63% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average was 1.60% (1.64% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 1.04 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year fell 0.98 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year rose 1.00 BP to 1.69%, and the 30 - year fell 1.70 BP to 1.86% [1] - **Housing Market**: In April, the month - on - month price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% (from a 0.2% increase last month). Among them, Shanghai rose 0.1%, Guangzhou remained flat, and Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Second - and third - tier cities' second - hand residential property prices decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline widening by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to last month [1] - **Investment Data**: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation: 4.26%, 4.2% from January to March). General infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% (market expectation: 10.0%, 11.5% from January to March, 9.19% in 2024). Narrow infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% (5.8% from January to March, 4.4% in 2024). Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% (market expectation: 9.1%, 9.1% from January to March, 9.2% in 2024). Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% (9.9% from January to March, 10.6% in 2024) [1] - **Sales Data**: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year (3.0% from January to March), and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% (2.1% from January to March) [2] - **Industrial Data**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.2%, 6.5% in the first quarter, 5.8% in 2024). Manufacturing added value increased by 6.6% (7.1% in the first quarter, 6.1% in 2024). High - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% (slightly lower than 10.7% in March, higher than 8.9% in 2024) [2] - **Consumption and Employment Data**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, 5.9% in March). The national service production index increased by 6.0% (6.3% in March). The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [2] - **Interest Rate Adjustment**: It is reported that many state - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks will lower the listed RMB deposit interest rates again starting from May 20th [2] 3.3 Market Logic - Overall, April's economic growth was relatively stable. Fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than market expectations. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the 90 - day window period brought short - term relief, but long - term uncertainties remain. The release of April's macro - economic data on Monday led to an overall rise in treasury bond futures, and the news of the deposit rate cut is favorable for the bulls, making treasury bond futures likely to be bullish in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth - In April, the industrial added value increased by 0.22% month-on-month, and from January to April, it grew by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - By sector, mining increased by 5.7%, manufacturing by 6.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.1% in April [1] - By ownership type, state-controlled enterprises grew by 2.9%, joint-stock enterprises by 6.6%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 3.9%, and private enterprises by 6.7% [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - In April, 36 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in coal mining (6.3%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (4.3%), and food processing (7.3%) [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a growth of 9.2%, while the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing surged by 17.6% [2] - The production of 623 industrial products showed that 341 products had a year-on-year increase, including steel (12.509 million tons, +6.6%) and automobiles (2.604 million units, +8.5%) [2] Group 3: Sales and Exports - The product sales rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 97.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][5] - The export delivery value reached 1.2469 trillion yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 0.9% year-on-year [3][5]

Core Insights - In April, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.22% [1]. - From January to April, the industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Industrial Growth by Sector - In April, the mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, manufacturing grew by 6.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.1% [3]. - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in added value in April [4]. Group 2: Economic Type Performance - In April, state-controlled enterprises' added value grew by 2.9%, while joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.6%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 3.9%, and private enterprises by 6.7% [4][7]. - High-tech manufacturing within the manufacturing sector experienced a growth rate of 10.0% in April [7]. Group 3: Key Industry Performance - Notable growth in specific industries includes coal mining and washing at 6.3%, petroleum and natural gas extraction at 4.3%, and food processing at 7.3% [4]. - The automotive manufacturing sector grew by 9.2%, with a significant increase in new energy vehicles at 38.9% [5][10]. Group 4: Product Output and Sales - In April, out of 623 industrial products, 341 saw a year-on-year increase in output, including steel at 12,509 million tons (up 6.6%) and cement at 16,530 million tons (down 5.3%) [5][10]. - The product sales rate for industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][10]. Group 5: Export Performance - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises reached 12,469 billion yuan, reflecting a nominal year-on-year growth of 0.9% [6][10].

国家统计局：4月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，环比增长0.22%。 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, the GDP of Zhongshan reached 97.309 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [2] - The primary industry added value was 1.423 billion yuan, growing by 4.3%; the secondary industry added value was 47.405 billion yuan, growing by 5.1%; and the tertiary industry added value was 48.482 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% [2] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 3.233 billion yuan, increasing by 7.0% [2] - Agricultural output value reached 1.238 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%; total vegetable and edible fungus output was 99,300 tons, increasing by 4.1%; and total fruit output was 23,900 tons, growing by 6.8% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.6% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing sector increased by 6.2%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector decreased by 5.9% [3] - High-tech manufacturing grew by 14.3%, accounting for 18.0% of the industrial output [3] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry increased by 3.4% year-on-year [3] - Information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 9.0%, while leasing and business services increased by 7.5% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 16.7% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment fell by 23.5%, and real estate development investment decreased by 24.4% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 0.4% year-on-year [4] - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 62.2%, while communication equipment sales grew by 56.5% [4] Price Levels and Income - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with service prices down by 0.7% and consumer goods prices up by 0.5% [5] - The per capita disposable income reached 19,214 yuan, growing by 2.5% year-on-year [5]

分析师：郝一凡 2、4月16日，国家统计局数据显示，3月份，社会消费品零售总额40940亿元，同比增 长5.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额36610亿元，增长6.0%。 3月份，规模以 上工业增加值同比实际增长7.7%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环 比看，3月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.44%。1—3月份，规模以上工业增加值 同比增长6.5%。 3、以美元计，1-3月，中国进出口总值14343.7亿美元，同比增长0.2%。1-3月，出口 总值8536.7亿美元，同比增长5.8%；其中，3月同比增长12.4%。1-3月，进口总值 5807亿美元，同比下降7.0%；其中，3月同比下降4.3%。 报告正文共计2979字 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾与点评 (4.14-4.20) 1、4月17日，国家统计局公布一季度相关经济数据。初步核算，一季度国内生产总值 318758亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。 链接报告 阅读全文（长按上方二维码） 您也可点击下方"阅读原 ...

Foreign Investment - In January-February 2025, 7,574 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, while the actual use of foreign capital amounted to 171.21 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector attracted 47.82 billion RMB in foreign investment, while the service sector attracted 120.49 billion RMB. High-tech industries received 52.49 billion RMB, with significant growth in e-commerce services (33.5%), biopharmaceutical manufacturing (22.9%), and smart consumer equipment manufacturing (40.7%) [2] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion RMB in January-February, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 768.38 billion RMB, growing by 4.8% [3] - Urban retail sales were 724.62 billion RMB, up 3.8%, while rural retail sales reached 112.69 billion RMB, growing by 4.6% [3] - Online retail sales totaled 227.63 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Physical goods online retail sales were 186.33 billion RMB, growing by 5.0%, accounting for 22.3% of total retail sales [3] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.51% in February [4] - The mining industry saw a 4.3% increase, manufacturing grew by 6.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 1.1% [4] - Among 41 major industries, 36 experienced year-on-year growth, with notable increases in coal mining (5.4%), food processing (8.3%), and automotive manufacturing (12.0%) [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 526.19 billion RMB in January-February, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [7] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 12.2%, the secondary industry by 11.4%, and the tertiary industry by 0.7% [7] - In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 11.5%, with manufacturing investment rising by 9.0% and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply investment growing by 25.4% [8]