淡季逆势回升，结构仍趋分化 12 月 PMI 点评 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 此外，墨西哥本轮关税调整也可能催生新一轮"抢出口"。2025 年 11 月墨西哥曾 宣布推迟对华加征关税，但同年 12 月 11 日突然改口，将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日起对 部分亚洲国家征收关税，涉及纺织等行业。这一政策变动或推动本期纺织品等行业 等开始对墨"抢出口"，这一推测可从两方面得到侧面印证：其一，消费品行业供 应链尤其拥堵。本期中采数据显示，纺织服装业、电子设备制造业（含消费电子） 供应商配送时间大幅下降（供应商配送时间总指数反而上升），反映出个别行业供 应链拥堵，订单生产任务紧迫；其二，企业规模差异导致"抢出口"能力分化，进 而影响 PMI 回升结构。本期 PMI 回升的行业分布与企业规模不完全匹配：一方面 消费品出口订单回升，但小企业PMI反而下滑；另一方面大型企业PMI显著回升， 但原材料行业 PMI 升幅却有限。我们认为，这一结构错配或与企业短期"抢生产" 和"抢出口"能力相关——我们在《如何看待今年的"抢出口"现象？》中曾指 出，企业规模越大，"抢出口"的速度越快，这一结论与本期数据的变化特征相 ...

从进口领域来看，前11个月，进口货物物流总额同比下降0.2%，降幅较前10个月收窄0.3个百分点；11 月份同比增长3.0%，增速较10月份小幅回落0.4个百分点。在外贸多元化支撑作用下，前11个月，我国 与共建"一带一路"国家相关进口同比增长6%。 12月30日，中国物流与采购联合会、中国物流信息中心发布数据显示，前11个月，全国社会物流总额 331.2万亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长5.0%，增速较前10个月小幅回落0.1个百分点；11月份增长 4.5%，增速较10月份回落0.3个百分点。 中国物流信息中心物流信息处处长孟圆对《证券日报》记者表示，今年以来，我国宏观经济运行总体平 稳、稳中有进，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，推动物流需求保持平稳增长态势，工业、消费、进口等 细分领域需求结构持续优化。 从工业领域看，前11个月，工业品物流总额同比增长5.2%，增速较前10个月小幅回落0.1个百分点；11 月份增长4.7%，增速环比回落0.2个百分点。 孟圆表示，从结构看，传统产业升级与新兴产业培育协同推进、驱动作用有所增强。一是改造升级推动 传统产业物流需求回升，如煤炭、化工等行业通过改造升级，生产能力和技术 ...

前11个月北京新能源汽车产量同比增长1.5倍 中新社北京12月16日电 (记者 陈杭)北京市统计局16日公布的数据显示，今年前11个月，北京规模以上 工业战略性新兴产业、高技术制造业增加值同比(下同)分别增长16.5%和8.4%(二者有交叉)，新能源汽 车、锂离子电池、风力发电机组、服务机器人产量分别增长1.5倍、1.1倍、37.0%和21.7%。 北京工业生产较快增长，电子、汽车行业发挥带动作用。前11个月，全市规模以上工业增加值按可比价 格计算，增长6.6%。重点行业中，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长22.3%，汽车制造业增长 17.1%。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：熊思怡 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 前11个月，北京规模以上工业实现销售产值24819.3亿元(人民币，下同)，增长6.7%。其中，内销产值 22893.1亿元，增长6.7%；出口交货值1926.1亿元，增长6.4%。 北京高技术产业投资引领增长。前11个月，全市固定资产投 ...

北京市统计局发布数据显示，1-11月，全市规模以上工业增加值按可比价格计算，同比增长6.6%。重点 行业中，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长22.3%，汽车制造业增长17.1%，电力、热力生产和 供应业增长4.9%，医药制造业下降9.0%，五大装备制造业增长6.3%。规模以上工业战略性新兴产业、 高技术制造业增加值分别增长16.5%和8.4%（二者有交叉），新能源汽车、锂离子电池、风力发电机 组、服务机器人产量分别增长1.5倍、1.1倍、37.0%和21.7%。1-11月，规模以上工业实现销售产值 24819.3亿元，增长6.7%；其中，内销产值22893.1亿元，增长6.7%，出口交货值1926.1亿元，增长 6.4%。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

12月10日，国家统计局公布11月份物价数据。 数据显示，11月物价水平进一步企稳。CPI（居民消费价格指数）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅创2024年3月份以来新高，核心CPI同比涨幅连续3个 月保持在1%以上。PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）环比上涨0.1%，连续第二个月上涨，同比下降2.2%。 其中，食品价格同比由降转涨。鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨。新材料、具身智能等高技术制造业发展带动相关 行业价格上涨。 中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出，展望2026年，随着扩内需等政策措施发力显效，现代化产业体系加 快构建，叠加重点行业产能治理持续推进、市场竞争秩序优化，物价有望低位温和回升。 鲜菜价格"逆袭"，服务价格"遇冷" 11月，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。 温彬表示，部分地区降雨降温，导致蔬菜供应量下降、运输难度与成本增加，价格环比上涨7.2%，远高于历史同期均值0.7%；市场供应充足情况下，猪 肉、鸡蛋、鲜果和水产品价格承压。 猪肉价格何时止跌？ 温彬认为，政策调控和市场倒逼的双 ...

11月份中国大宗商品价格指数为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨1.6%。 中国物流与采购联合会今天（5日）公布11月份中国大宗商品价格指数。从指数运行情况看，连续七个月实现环比上升，且好于去年同期水平。 分行业看，得益于全球新能源产业快速发展，以及国内高技术制造业持续保持扩张，有色金属价格指数继续走高，环比上涨1.4%。随着冬季取暖需求季节 性增长及部分农产品供应偏紧等影响，能源价格指数和农产品价格指数止跌反弹，环比分别上涨1.2%和0.9%。 总体来看，大宗商品市场景气水平继续回升，保持稳中向好态势。这表明在国家各项稳经济措施的协同发力下，国内经济的内生动力和韧性正稳步增强，新 旧动能转换进一步加快，为实现全年经济增长目标提供了有力支撑。 在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，11月价格环比上涨的大宗商品有25种。其中碳酸锂、焦炭和瓦楞纸涨幅居前，较上月分别上涨15%、 7.2%和7.1%。 ...

Group 1: Modern Industrial System Development - Shaanxi has focused on building a modern industrial system as a strategic initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to revitalization of traditional industries and rapid growth of emerging industries [1] - The province has implemented a plan for industrial structure adjustment in the Guanzhong area, promoting the transformation and upgrading of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises [1] - Strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing have seen annual value-added growth rates of 8.7% and 10.3% respectively during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with new energy vehicle production growing at an annual rate of 112% [1] Group 2: Agricultural Modernization - The implementation of the rural industrial integration development demonstration park three-year action plan has resulted in the establishment of 9 national and 65 provincial demonstration parks, with a target of 3.356 billion yuan in central investment for 2025 [2] - In 2024, the total grain production is expected to reach 13.5229 million tons, with a historical high yield of 297.35 kg per mu [2] Group 3: Service Industry Development - By 2024, the service sector's value added is projected to reach 1.84 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.8% of the province's GDP, achieving the 14th Five-Year Plan target ahead of schedule [2] - The combined revenue of scientific research, technical services, and information technology services accounted for 51.3% of the profitable service industry in the first three quarters of this year [2] Group 4: Infrastructure Enhancement - The construction of the China-Europe Railway Express (Xi'an) has seen an increase in annual operations from 3,720 trains in 2020 to 4,985 in 2024, with an average annual growth of 34% [2] - The railway operating mileage has reached 6,030 kilometers, while the total road mileage has reached 190,000 kilometers, and urban rail transit operating mileage has reached 403 kilometers [2]

Core Insights - Chengdu's industrial added value increased by 7.5% year-on-year from January to September this year [1] Industry Performance - Out of 37 major industrial sectors in Chengdu, 24 sectors achieved positive growth, with 11 sectors maintaining double-digit growth [1] - The top ten industries contributed 5.8 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] - The three fastest-growing sectors were general equipment manufacturing (28.5%), automobile manufacturing (20.2%), and computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (14.1%) [1] High-tech Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing in Chengdu saw an added value growth of 11.2% year-on-year [1] - The electronic and communication equipment manufacturing sector grew by 29.8%, while the aerospace equipment manufacturing sector grew by 29.2% [1] Advanced Manufacturing - The five major advanced manufacturing sectors experienced an added value growth of 8.9% year-on-year [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry and electronic information industry grew by 17.0% and 12.9%, respectively [1] Emerging Products - Emerging products showed significant growth, with solar cells increasing by 247.1%, new energy vehicles by 238.0%, smartwatches by 54.4%, and industrial robots by 39.0% [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Shaanxi Province, covering the province's economic and fiscal strength, the economic and fiscal strength of its prefecture - level cities, and the solvency of urban investment enterprises [4] - Shaanxi Province has prominent location advantages, rich cultural and tourism resources, and obvious transportation and mineral resource advantages. In 2024, its economic aggregate and per - capita GDP were at the middle level in the country. The industrial structure is constantly optimized, and new productive forces are developing steadily [4] - The economic strength and general public budget revenue scale of Shaanxi's prefecture - level cities are significantly differentiated. The province has formulated a package of debt - resolution plans, and each city has achieved certain results in debt risk prevention and control [5] - From January to September 2025, the number and scale of bond issuances by Shaanxi's urban investment enterprises exceeded the full - year level of 2024, still mainly in Xi'an [6] Group 2: Shaanxi Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength Economic Development Status - Shaanxi is located in the inland hinterland of China, with obvious transportation location advantages, rich cultural and tourism and mineral resources. It has a large number of universities and research institutions, and a well - developed transportation network [7] - As of the end of 2024, Shaanxi's permanent population was 39.53 million, with a slight increase from the previous year. The urbanization rate reached 66.14%, slightly lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP was 3.553877 trillion yuan, ranking 14th in the country, with a growth rate of 5.3% [10] - Shaanxi is an energy - rich province. The industrial structure has been continuously optimized, with the proportion of the tertiary industry significantly increasing. The new productive forces are developing steadily, and the province is gradually transforming from traditional energy dependence to green and high - tech manufacturing [12][15] - Shaanxi focuses on promoting the development of advanced manufacturing, forming a "one - area, six - base" energy development pattern. In 2024, it focused on strategic emerging industries such as new productive forces [17][19] - Shaanxi promotes coordinated development among Guanzhong, northern Shaanxi, and southern Shaanxi, implementing the "6 + 5+N" modern manufacturing system and the three - region development strategy [20] - Since 2024, Shaanxi has introduced various economic - promotion policies in areas such as opening up international markets, promoting free - trade zone strategies, and building industrial innovation clusters [22] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Shaanxi's general public budget revenue was 339.328 billion yuan, ranking 15th in the country. The tax revenue accounted for about 77%, with good tax quality. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate decreased to 46.50%, showing weak self - sufficiency [26] - Shaanxi's government - funded revenue continued to decline. In 2024, it was 167.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.4%. In the first half of 2025, it was 48.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.6% [27][29] - In 2024, Shaanxi's superior subsidy revenue increased to 349.736 billion yuan, ranking 17th in the country, accounting for 40.85% of the local comprehensive financial resources. The comprehensive financial resources ranked 15th in the country [30] - In 2024, Shaanxi's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 146.87% and 35.39% respectively, ranking 8th and 11th among 31 provincial - level administrative regions, showing a slight increase from the previous year [34] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Shaanxi's Prefecture - level Cities Economic Development Status of Prefecture - level Cities - The economic strength of Shaanxi's prefecture - level cities is significantly differentiated. Xi'an and Yulin have a significant driving effect on Shaanxi's economic growth. Xi'an has obvious industrial advantages, and Yulin's GDP ranks second in the province, with a much higher per - capita GDP than other cities [36] - Each prefecture - level city in Shaanxi develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages. Xi'an has prominent industrial advantages and a significant agglomeration effect, while northern Shaanxi has obvious resource advantages [37] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities Fiscal Revenue - The general public budget revenue scale of Shaanxi's prefecture - level cities is significantly differentiated. Resource - based cities' local fiscal revenues are highly dependent on energy prices, and non - resource - based cities generally have low self - sufficiency rates. Xi'an and Yulin have much larger general public budget revenues than other cities [43][44] - In 2024, the general public budget revenues of Xianyang and Weinan declined significantly. Most prefecture - level cities' government - funded revenues decreased due to the weakening real - estate market. Superior subsidy revenues contribute significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of prefecture - level cities [44][45] Debt - The government debt balance, debt ratio, and debt - to - GDP ratio of Shaanxi's prefecture - level cities have been continuously increasing, with the debt mainly concentrated in Xi'an. The province has formulated a package of debt - resolution plans, and each city has achieved certain results in debt replacement and resolution [51] - Shaanxi and its prefecture - level cities have introduced various debt - resolution measures, including setting up regional stability - development funds, coordinating financial institutions for support, and striving for central government debt - resolution funds. They also actively participate in debt resolution by盘活存量 assets and expanding revenue sources [59] Group 4: Solvency of Shaanxi's Urban Investment Enterprises Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Shaanxi's urban investment enterprises are concentrated in Xi'an. The credit ratings of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly AA and AA+. Some urban investment enterprises have been put on the credit rating watch list due to factors such as debt overdue, high debt - repayment pressure, and operating losses [62] Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number and scale of bond issuances by Shaanxi's urban investment enterprises exceeded the full - year level of 2024, still mainly in Xi'an. The bond issuance scale of AAA - rated urban investment enterprises accounted for a significantly increased proportion year - on - year [65]

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Industry - In the first ten months of the year, the production of new energy vehicles in Beijing increased by 150% year-on-year [1] - The production of lithium-ion batteries also saw a significant increase of 130% during the same period [1] - The overall industrial production value in Beijing grew by 6.9%, with the automotive manufacturing sector specifically growing by 15.9% [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Beijing (excluding rural households) grew by 7.8% in the first ten months [2] - Investment in high-tech industries surged by 48.4%, driven by projects in internet enterprise hardware and the Zhongguancun Science Park [2] - Equipment purchase investments aimed at expanding production capacity increased by 73.7%, accounting for 30.2% of total fixed asset investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales of certain upgraded consumer goods showed positive trends, with jewelry sales increasing by 41.2%, cosmetics by 10.8%, and home appliances by 3.4% [2] - The growth rates for these categories improved compared to the previous three quarters [2]