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《金融》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 03:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views No explicit core views are presented in the reports. The reports mainly provide data on various financial products such as stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, and container shipping, including the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical quantiles, etc. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread is -0.34 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 32.70%, and the IC futures - spot spread is -98.73 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 19.20% [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Such as the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, e.g., for F, the next - month minus current - month is -13.60 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.30% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: For instance, the IC/IF ratio is 1.5448 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 85.20% [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spreads - **Basis**: On October 24, 2025, the TS basis is 1.2902 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 12.50%, and the TF basis is 1.5400 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 40.10% [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For example, the difference between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts for T is 0.3300 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 43.60% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: On October 24, 2025, the TS - TF spread is -3.2830 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 12.80% [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 938.10, down -0.44% from the previous day, and the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4126.90, down -0.39% [3]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is -2.77 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 44.50%, and the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis is -15 with a 1 - year historical quantile of 67.80% [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 85.25, up 0.10% from the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 82.78, up 0.74% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.02, up 0.2% from the previous day, and the US dollar index is 98.94, up 0.01% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 87015 kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the COMEX gold inventory is 38877087, down -0.21% [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: On October 27, 2025, the MAERSK price for Shanghai - Europe in the next 6 weeks is 2364 dollars/FEU, down -0.38% from the previous day, and the CMA CGM price is 3425 dollars/FEU, up 3.54% [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on October 20 is 1140.38 points, up 10.52% from October 13, and the SCFIS (US West route) is 863.46 points, up 0.11% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: On October 24, 2025, the EC2602 contract is 1601.0, up 1.20% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract is -368.6, down 8.89% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on October 27 is 3327.99 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai in August is 42.77, up 133.59% from the previous month [4].
《金融》日报-20251017
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 04:03
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads (including inter - period spreads and basis spreads) on October 17, 2025 [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis Spreads**: For example, the IF basis spread is - 0.20, the IC basis spread is - 169.53, and the IM basis spread is - 196.84. Different contracts have corresponding basis spread values and percentile data [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the "next month - current month", "quarter month - current month", etc. Each spread has its own latest value, change, and percentile information [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various spreads (including basis spreads and inter - period spreads) of Treasury bond futures on October 17, 2025 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis Spreads**: The TS basis is - 0.0217, the TF basis is 1.5010, the T basis is 1.6211, and the TL basis is 0.1552, with corresponding percentile and change data [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads like "current quarter - next quarter", "next quarter - far quarter" have their values, changes, and percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented with their data [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis spreads, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions on October 17, 2025 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 966.42, and foreign COMEX gold closed at 4344.30. Spot London gold was at 4326.48, etc., with corresponding price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis Spreads**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is 0.87, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 36, with historical 1 - year percentile data [3]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, and interest rates of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds, as well as the US dollar index and offshore RMB exchange rate are provided [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Information on inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, and positions of ETFs are given [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Shows the spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis spreads, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on October 17, 2025 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping routes from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies (e.g., MAERSK, CMA) are presented with price changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: Settlement price indices of European and US - West routes, and Shanghai export container freight indices have corresponding price changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., EC2602, EC2604) and the basis spread of the main contract are provided [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators in Shanghai, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are presented [4].
《金融》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:05
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads on September 29, 2025, including price spreads between different contract months and across different varieties [1]. - **Summary by Category**: - **IF Spreads**: The current - spot spread is 6.24, with a 30.30% historical 1 - year quantile and 2.60% all - time quantile. Different inter - period spreads also show specific values and quantiles, such as the next month - current month spread being - 10.80 [1]. - **IH Spreads**: The current - spot spread is - 160.91, and various inter - period spreads have their own values and quantiles, e.g., the next month - current month spread is - 66.80 [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The current - spot spread is - 208.39, and inter - period spreads like the next month - current month are presented with corresponding values and quantiles [1]. - **IM Spreads**: Similar to the above, it shows current - spot and inter - period spreads with specific values and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of different types of spreads for treasury bond futures on September 29, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [2]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.4131, TF basis is 1.3377, T basis is 1.2219, and TL basis is 1.2939, each with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For different contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL, spreads between the current quarter, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts are given with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Core View**: Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, and other related indicators on September 29, 2025, including changes and historical quantiles [4]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 yuan/gram on September 25, with a 0.16% increase from August 26. The AG2512 contract closed at 10411 yuan/kilogram, up 2.12% [4]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold and silver futures show increases, with COMEX gold closing at 3789.80 and COMEX silver at 46.37 dollars/ounce on September 26 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold and silver also increased, with London gold at 3758.78 and London silver at 46.03 dollars/ounce on September 26 [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Differences like gold TD - Shanghai gold and ratios such as COMEX gold/silver are presented, along with changes in yields, exchange rates, inventories, and ETF holdings [4]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Core View**: Analyzes the spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on September 29, 2025 [5]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Spot Quotes**: Shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe for different companies like MAERSK, CMA, etc., show different changes, with CMA having a 3.14% increase [5]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Indexes such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFI composite index decreased, with SCFIS (European route) down 12.87% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 and EC2510 (main contract) show price changes, and the basis of the main contract increased by 443.46% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, while port - related indicators and overseas economic indicators showed various changes, such as the Shanghai port on - time rate decreasing by 43.80% [5].
股指期货价差日报-20250923
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 06:18
Report on Stock Index Futures Price Spread Core Data - **Price Spread of Stock Index Futures**: IF spot - futures spread is -25.58, with a change of 0.0096 from the previous day; IC spot - futures spread is -211.93, with a change of 0.40%; IM spot - futures spread is -259.28, with a change of -11.89 and a historical 1 - year quantile of 0.10%. Different contracts' inter - term spreads also show various values and changes [1]. Summary - The report presents detailed data on the price spreads of different stock index futures contracts, including spot - futures spreads and inter - term spreads, as well as their historical quantiles, which helps investors understand the current price relationships and trends in the stock index futures market [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Price Spread Core Data - **Basis and Inter - term Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, TS basis is -0.0467, TF basis is 1.6521, T basis is 1.6415, and TL basis is 0.6767. Different contracts' inter - term spreads and their changes and historical quantiles are also provided, such as TS inter - term spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter is 0.0660 with a change of -0.0080 and a historical quantile of 38.60%) [2]. Summary - The report offers comprehensive information on the basis and inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures, enabling investors to analyze the price differences and trends in the treasury bond futures market [2]. Report on Precious Metals Spot - Futures Core Data - **Prices and Changes**: On September 22, 2025, the domestic AU2512 contract price is 846.50 yuan/gram, up 1.92% from September 19; the AG2512 contract price is 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 3.47%. The international COMEX gold and silver contracts also show price increases. Spot prices of London gold and silver, as well as domestic gold and silver T + D, also rise. The basis, ratio, interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and holdings data are also presented [4]. Summary - The report provides a detailed overview of the price changes, basis, ratio, and related market data of precious metals in both domestic and international markets, which is useful for investors to assess the precious metals market [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Core Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot freight rates of different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route show different changes. The settlement price indices of shipping routes, such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US - West route), decline. Futures contract prices of container shipping, like EC2602 and EC2604, increase. The basis of the main contract changes significantly. Fundamental data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export volume, and overseas economic data are also provided [6]. Summary - The report presents a comprehensive picture of the container shipping industry, including spot and futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, helping investors understand the industry's market conditions and trends [6].
《金融》日报-20250919
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the reports regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping industry. They provide detailed data on price differences, price changes, and historical percentile rankings, which can help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in these sectors. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: The IF spot - futures price difference is -10.91, with a change of -13.09 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 40.50%. Different IF inter - period price differences also show various values and changes, such as the next - month minus current - month being -11.20 with a change of 0.20 and a historical 1 - year percentile of 34.80% [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The IH spot - futures price difference is -2.03, with a change of -5.45, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 46.40%. IH inter - period price differences have their own values and percentile rankings [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The IC spot - futures price difference is -28.28, with a change of -20.65, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 57.50%. IC inter - period price differences show different characteristics [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The IM spot - futures price difference is -21.60, with a change of -13.79, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 75.00%. IM inter - period price differences are also presented [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as IC/IF, ICMH, IF/IH, and IM/IF are provided, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: The TS basis is 1.5173, with a change of -0.0347, and the percentile since listing is 22.10%. TF, T, and TL bases also have their own values, changes, and percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are given, including values, changes, and percentile rankings since listing [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc. are presented with their values, changes, and percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices of gold and silver are reported, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 824.10 yuan/gram on September 18, down 10.98 yuan or -1.31% from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of gold and silver in different markets are provided, including London, Shanghai Gold Exchange, etc., along with their price changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Basis**: The basis values for gold and silver, such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., are given, along with their changes and historical 1 - year percentile rankings [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver,上期所金/银, and interest rates (10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, etc.) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) are presented with their changes and percentage changes [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and position data for gold and silver in different markets are provided, including上期所黄金库存,上期所白银库存, COMEX gold inventory, etc., along with their changes and percentage changes [4]. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, MAERSK's price on September 19 was 1570 dollars/FEU, up 18 dollars or 1.16% from the previous day [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes such as SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US West route), and Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI) are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Fundamental data including global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators in Shanghai, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [6].
《金融》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 06:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. They offer daily updates on price differentials, historical percentile rankings, and price movements, which can assist investors in understanding market trends and making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Report Type Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differentials**: Provides price differentials for various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 2.78, and the IF inter - period spread (next month - current month) is - 9.40 [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: Presents historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles for each spread, which helps investors assess the relative position of current spreads in historical data. For instance, the historical 1 - year percentile of the IF spot - futures spread is 69.60% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Offers ratios between different stock index futures, like IC/IF, IC/IH, and IF/IH, along with their historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and IRR**: Reports the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) for different treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL). For example, the TS basis on September 16, 2025, is 1.5336, with an IRR change of - 0.0395 [2]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Provides inter - period spreads for different contracts, such as the TS inter - period spread (current quarter - next quarter) of 0.0660 on September 16, 2025 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For example, the TS - TF spread on September 16, 2025, is - 3.3810 [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes for gold and silver. For example, the AU2510 contract price increased by 10.48 (1.26%) on September 16, 2025, compared to the previous day [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Provides basis values and ratios between different precious metal products, along with their historical percentiles. For instance, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 3.98, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 16.00% [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Reports interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory data for precious metals. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 ( - 0.2%) [5]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Reports spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping routes and various shipping indexes, including their changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) decreased by 116.2 ( - 7.47%) from September 8 to September 15 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts. For example, the EC2602 contract price increased by 55.2 (3.64%) from September 15 to September 16, and the basis (main contract) decreased by 155.8 ( - 125.18%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Reports fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic data. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3305.11 million TEU on September 17 compared to the previous day [7].
广发期货《金融》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 03:55
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data - **Price - Spot Spread**: For example, the price - spot spread of IH is 2.78, with a change of 2.99 compared to the previous day, and its historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 69.60% and 73.20% respectively [1]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF is - 9.40, changing by - 1.40 from the previous day, with 1 - year and all - time percentiles of 36.00% and 38.30% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: The ratio of IC/IF is 1.5863, changing by 0.0151, and its 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 99.50% and 96.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data - **Basis**: On September 16, 2025, the basis of TS is 1.5336, changing by - 0.0395 compared to the previous day, and its percentile since listing is 22.80% [2]. - **Inter - period Spread**: For example, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of TS is 0.0660, changing by 0.0060, with a percentile of 38.70% since listing [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The spread of TS - TF is - 3.3810, changing by - 0.1020, and its percentile since listing is 9.80% [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Data - **Futures Closing Price**: The AU2510 contract closed at 842.08 yuan/gram on September 16, 2025, up 10.48 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price of London Gold on September 16, 2025, was 3689.59 dollars/ounce, up 10.70 dollars or 0.29% from the previous day [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of Gold TD - Shanghai Gold main contract is - 3.98, changing by - 0.41, and its 1 - year percentile is 16.00% [5]. - **Ratio**: The ratio of COMEX gold/silver is 86.93, changing by 0.81 or 0.94% [5]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield on September 16, 2025, was 4.04%, down 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold on September 16, 2025, was 53226 kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Data - **Spot Quotation**: On September 12, 2025, the freight rate of MAERSK from Shanghai to Europe was 1705 dollars/FEU, down 81 dollars or 4.54% from September 11 [7]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 15, 2025, was 1440.24, down 116.2 or 7.47% from September 8 [7]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1572.1 on September 16, 2025, up 55.2 or 3.64% from September 15, and the basis of the main contract was - 31.4, down 155.8 or 125.18% [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on September 17, 2025, was 3305.11 million TEU, unchanged from September 16 [7]. - **Overseas Economy**: The Eurozone's composite PMI in August 2025 was 51.00, up 0.10 or 0.20% from July [7].
《农产品》日报-20250916
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and reach 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound and may follow the Malaysian trend to rise later, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to drop by 5.8% compared to July. In China, downstream consumption has increased, but overall demand is down year - on - year, and soybean supply is sufficient, resulting in a situation of both long and short factors. Currently, soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price fluctuates narrowly [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, it will remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar futures may stabilize around 5,500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 2.4 Cotton Industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. 2.5 Egg Industry - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [9]. 2.6 Meal Industry - The supply - weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues to suppress the price. Brazilian premiums are strong, providing cost support for the domestic market. In China, concerns about future supply are alleviated, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level. The cost support for domestic meals is strong, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,050 - 3,150 [11]. 2.7 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is under pressure due to increased slaughter, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. After a short - term rebound, there may be further downside potential, and both futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price of Y2601 increased by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price of P2601 increased by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis of P2601 decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price of Ol601 increased by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis of Ol601 decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; palm oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.2.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 5 yuan/ton, a 135.71% decline [2]. 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 42 yuan/ton, an 82.61% decline [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 9 yuan to 5,517 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 23 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 2,891 lots to 381,607 lots, a 0.75% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 274 lots to 11,325 lots, a 2.36% decline [6]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis decreased by 9 yuan to 364 yuan/ton, a 2.41% decline; the Kunming basis decreased by 9 yuan to 329 yuan/ton, a 2.66% decline [6]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, a 12.03% increase; sales increased by 114 million tons to 1,000 million tons, a 12.87% increase; the national sales ratio increased by 0.66 percentage points to 89.60%; the industrial inventory increased by 5.78 million tons to 116 million tons, a 5.24% increase [6]. 3.4 Cotton Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 22 yuan to 13,882 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase; the 5 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 35 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,295 lots, a 1.60% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 118 lots to 4,899 lots, a 2.35% decline [7]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 15 yuan to 15,167 yuan/ton; the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1 yuan to 15,249 yuan/ton; the FC Index:M: 1% increased by 17 yuan to 13,388 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, an 18.6% decline; industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a 3.5% decline; imports increased by 2 million tons to 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase [7]. 3.5 Egg Industry - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.39% increase; the futures price of the egg 10 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,126 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.41% increase; the basis increased by 19 yuan to 515 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.81% increase [9]. 3.6 Meal Industry 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline; the basis increased by 17 yuan to - 12 yuan/ton, a 58.62% increase [11]. 3.6.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline; the basis increased by 23 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, a 31.94% increase [11]. 3.7 Pig Industry 3.7.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main pig contract increased by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 470 yuan/ton, an 8.05% decline; the main contract's open interest increased by 2,009 lots to 81,062 lots, a 2.54% increase [13]. 3.7.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it decreased by 250 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it decreased by 300 yuan to 13,050 yuan/ton; in Liaoning, it decreased by 200 yuan to 12,900 yuan/ton [13].
债市情绪面周报(9月第2周):债市情绪仍在低位,看震荡者众-20250915
Huaan Securities· 2025-09-15 13:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].
《金融》日报-20250915
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 08:05
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data Summary - **Spot-Futures Spreads**: The IF spot-futures spread was 1.20, down 12.76 from the previous day; the IH was 0.06, down 7.06; the IC was -9.64, down 7.75; the IM was -30.08, down 18.00 [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: For example, the next - near spread of IF was -6.20, up 1.40; the far - near spread of IM was -45.20, up 58.60 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 was 2.4078, up 0.0201; the ratio of CSI 1000 to SSE 300 was 1.6415, up 0.0145 [1]. Report 2: Bond Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report Core Data Summary - **Basis**: The TF basis on September 12, 2025, was 1.1549, up 0.0604; the T basis was 0.9678 [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: The current - next spread of TS was -0.0280, up 0.0300 on September 12, 2025 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between TS and TF was -3.2200, down 0.0400 on September 12, 2025 [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Data Summary - **Futures Closing Prices**: The domestic AU2510 contract closed at 834.22 yuan/gram on September 12, up 3.44; the AG2510 contract closed at 10035 yuan/kg, up 237 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was 3642.64 dollars/ounce on September 12, up 9.10; London silver was 42.16, up 0.66 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - SHFE gold was -3.88, up 0.81; the basis of silver TD - SHFE silver was -1, up 25 [3]. - **Ratios**: The ratio of COMEX gold to silver was 86.24, down 1.09; the ratio of SHFE gold to silver was 83.13, down 1.66 [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core Data Summary - **Spot Quotes**: The Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate of MAERSK was 1705 dollars/FEU on September 12, down 81 [4]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 8 was 1556.46, down 217.1 from September 1 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1497.4 points on September 11, down 26.6; the basis of the main contract was 125.9, down 203.8 [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on September 14 was 3302.99 TEU, down 0.20 [4].