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《金融》日报-20250714
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 09:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views There is no explicit core view presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various financial products, including futures spreads, prices, and related economic indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spread Data**: Presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles, and changes from the previous day for IF, IH, IC, and IM's term - current spreads, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. - **Term - Current Spreads**: For example, the IF term - current spread is 16.62, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 28.60% and a full - history percentile of 20.70% [1]. - **Inter - Term Spreads**: Such as the next - month minus current - month spread of IF is - 14.60, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 26.20% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The ratio of CSI 500 to SSE 50 is 0.0161, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 65.90% [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spread Data**: Provides the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the basis, inter - term spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - **Basis**: The TS basis on July 11, 2025, is 1.5774, with a change of - 0.0001 and a percentile since listing of 23.00% [2]. - **Inter - Term Spreads**: The current - quarter minus next - quarter spread of TS on July 11, 2025, is - 0.1020, with a change of 0.0080 and a percentile since listing of 10.30% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The TS - TF spread on July 11, 2025, is - 3.5790, with a change of - 0.0030 and a percentile since listing of 7.10% [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price and Spread Data**: Covers domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and ratios of precious metals (gold and silver) [6]. - **Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2510 contract closed at 773.56 yuan/g on July 11, 2025, up 0.26 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day [6]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3354.75 dollars/ounce on July 11, 2025, up 31.41 dollars or 0.95% [6]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 4.26, with a change of - 0.18 and a historical 1 - year percentile of 9.20% [6]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 86.25, down 2.33 or - 2.63% from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Includes spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the shipping industry [9]. - **Spot Quotes**: The Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate reference of MAERSK is 3027 dollars/FEU on July 14, 2025, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on June 30, 2025, is 2123.24, up 186.1 or 9.61% from June 23 [9]. - **Futures Prices**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1344.0 on July 11, 2025, down 21.7 or - 1.59% from the previous day [9]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 791.3, up 196.3 or 32.99% from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on July 14, 2025, is 3270.28 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day [9]. 3.5 Trading Calendar - **Data and Information Schedule**: Lists overseas and domestic data sources, time, and economic indicators or financial events for different sectors [11]. - **Overseas Data**: In the agricultural products sector, the US provides USDA export inspection and crop growth data, and Brazil provides the secex weekly report [11]. - **Domestic Data**: For macro - data, China's June trade balance (in billions of yuan) is released at 0:00; in the energy - chemical sector, Shandong's local refinery crude oil arrivals (in million tons) are reported at 14:00 by Longzhong Information [11].
甲醇日报:港口基差持续疲软-20250708
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:30
甲醇日报 | 2025-07-08 港口基差持续疲软 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨(+0),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润690元/吨(-25);内地甲醇价格方面,内 蒙北线1985元/吨(-25),内蒙北线基差193元/吨(-18),内蒙南线2020元/吨(+0);山东临沂2295元/吨(-35),鲁 南基差103元/吨(-28);河南2175元/吨(-30),河南基差-17元/吨(-23);河北2185元/吨(+0),河北基差53元/吨 (+7)。隆众内地工厂库存352280吨(+10730),西北工厂库存223500吨(+18000);隆众内地工厂待发订单233250 吨(-7450),西北工厂待发订单110400吨(-9100)。 港口方面:太仓甲醇2425元/吨(-40),太仓基差33元/吨(-33),CFR中国282美元/吨(-1),华东进口价差-9元/吨 (+15),常州甲醇2420元/吨;广东甲醇2435元/吨(-25),广东基差43元/吨(-18)。隆众港口总库存673660吨(+3160), 江苏港口库存333000吨(-23500),浙江港口库存17 ...
《农产品》日报-20250703
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 02:16
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is potential for the crude palm oil futures to break through previous highs, but beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term. For soybean oil, the US Senate's fiscal expenditure bill may boost consumption and support prices in the long - term, while the domestic soybean oil basis decline is limited due to import cost support [1]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a small rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term, but a bearish view is held after the rebound considering future imports [3]. Eggs - The national egg supply is sufficient, demand is general, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short - term, and remain stable later [7]. Cotton - The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so cotton prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [10]. Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and the basis is stable. The soybean meal market is currently bottom - grinding, and attention should be paid to the 2950 support level [12]. Corn - The spot price of corn is firm, but the futures price has declined due to import auctions. In the medium - term, the supply shortage and increasing consumption may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is pressure on the 09 contract above 14,500 [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, soybean oil spot price was 8260, futures price (Y2509) was 8018; palm oil spot price (Guangdong 24 - degree) was 8460, futures price (P2509) was 8440; rapeseed oil spot price (Jiangsu fourth - grade) was 9730, futures price (OI509) was 9618 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of soybean oil (Y2509) was 242, down 26; the basis of palm oil (P2509) was 20, down 74; the basis of rapeseed oil (OI509) was 111, down 42. The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 44, up 2; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was - 10, up 14; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 32.65% [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of sugar 2601 was 5580, down 16; the price of sugar 2509 was 5766, down 9. The spot price in Nanning was 6070, down 20 [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons [3]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3678, down 6; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3544, down 24. The egg产区 price was 2.60, unchanged [7]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks was 4.00, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.62, up 0.18; the egg - feed ratio was 2.24, down 0.09; the breeding profit was - 33.26, down 5.38 [7]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of cotton 2509 was 13805, up 60; the price of cotton 2601 was 13820, up 65. The ICE US cotton主力 price was 67.96, down 0.08 [10]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 312.69 million tons, down 33.18 million tons; the industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [10]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of soybean meal (Jiangsu) was 2840, unchanged; the price of soybean meal futures (M2509) was 2944, down 17. The price of rapeseed meal (Jiangsu) was 2470, down 20; the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) was 2578, down 8 [12]. - **Industry Data**: The Brazilian 8 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was - 16, down 14.4%; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 107, unchanged [12]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of corn 2509 was 2363, down 20; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2731, down 12 [14]. - **Industry Data**: The import profit of corn was 579, down 1; the import profit of corn starch was - 100, down 5 [14]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 13550, up 160; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14340, up 475. The spot price in Henan was 15100, up 50 [18]. - **Industry Data**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 136895, down 1775; the weekly white - strip price was 20.43, up 0.1 [18].
《金融》日报-20250701
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and shipping futures, along with their price changes, spreads, and related economic indicators. These data can help investors understand the market trends and make investment decisions [1][2][6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Changes**: The latest prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts show different degrees of change compared to the previous day, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: The historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of various spreads are provided, which can help investors evaluate the current spread levels [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts and their inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day and the percentiles since listing [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic and Foreign Prices**: The domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, and price ratios of gold and silver are given, as well as the changes in interest rates and exchange rates [6]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory and position data of domestic and foreign precious metal futures are provided, including the changes in inventory and position compared to the previous period [6]. Shipping Futures - **Freight Rates**: The Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates, settlement price indices, and Shanghai export container freight rates are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [9]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract are given, as well as their changes compared to the previous period [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port berthing conditions, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided [9]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: The economic indicators and financial events of the eurozone and the United States, such as PMI, CPI, and job vacancies, are presented [12]. - **Domestic Data**: The economic indicators and financial events in China, including PMI, port inventories, and product sales rates, are provided [12].
《金融》日报-20250627
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:58
Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents detailed data on stock index futures spreads, including price differences, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles for various futures contracts and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Spread Data**: Displays current and historical quantiles of price differences for multiple futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Quantile Analysis**: Compares current spread values with historical data, showing the position of the current value within the historical distribution [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides information on the basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Basis Data**: Lists the basis values of different treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) and their changes from the previous day, along with historical quantiles [2] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: Presents inter - period spreads for different contract months and their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Cross - variety Spread Data**: Shows cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures contracts and their changes [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Analyzes the prices, basis, ratios, and related market indicators of domestic and foreign precious metals futures and spot markets [7] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Price Data**: Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures and spot markets on different days, showing price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Basis Data**: Calculates the basis between different precious metals contracts and their historical quantiles [7] - **Ratio Data**: Presents the ratios between different precious metals contracts and their changes [7] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Data**: Lists the current and previous values of interest rates and exchange rates and their changes [7] Report 4: Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Analyzes the shipping industry's freight rates, index data, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data [12] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Freight Rate Data**: Compares the shipping freight rates of different shipping companies between different days, showing price changes and percentage changes [12] - **Index Data**: Presents the settlement price indices of different shipping routes and their changes [12] - **Futures Price and Basis Data**: Lists the futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract and their changes [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [12] Report 5: Data/Information Calendar Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicator data and financial events for different time periods [15] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes macro - data, agricultural product - related data, and CFTC position reports from different countries and regions [15] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Contains economic indicators and financial events for different domestic commodity sectors such as black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [15]
广发期货《金融》日报-20250625
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:40
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月25日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 服新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -51.63 | 8.87 | 6.50% | 4.70% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -33.92 | -1.95 | 2.40% | 1.20% | | | IC期现价差 | -39.44 | 8.93 | 27.40% | 30.20% | | | IM期现价差 | -199.67 | 27.36 | 15.00% | 1.80% | | | 次月-当月 | -13.20 | 1.80 | 23.30% | 31.00% | | | 季月-当月 | -19.80 | 6.20 | 36.00% | 40.20% | | | 远月-当月 | -50.40 | 3.20 | 41.30% | 35.70% | | ...
《金融》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:43
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年6月23日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | F期现价差 | -73.04 | -70.35 | 1.60% | 2.40% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -32.00 | 1.60% | -38.32 | 0.60% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -51.11 | -52.08 | 17.60% | 18.80% | IM期到价差 | 1.20% | -211.79 | -213.97 | 5.00% | | -44.80 | 5.80% | 次月-景月 | -2.80 | 0.40% | -75.60 ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:25
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月19日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 服新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -2.77 | -0.99 | 59.8096 | 53.20% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -2.52 | 0.63 | 42.20% | 45.60% | | | IC期现价差 | -7.87 | -5.36 | 81.90% | 72.30% | | | IM期现价差 | -11.19 | 0.28 | 90.00% | 63.40% | | | 次月-当月 | -41.00 | 0.00 | 1.20% | 6.70% | | | 季月-崇月 | -70.60 | -1.20 | 10.6096 | 14.30% | | | 远月-当月 | -99.20 | 2.00 | 17.20% | 19.00% ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:56
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report No overall core view is presented in the reports. The documents mainly offer data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals futures, and container shipping futures, along with some economic indicators and market information. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **IF期现价差**: Latest value -4.00, changed by 50.0096 compared to the previous day, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 3.79 and 55.30% respectively [1]. - **IH期现价差**: Latest value -6.61, changed by 4.62, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 31.10% and 31.90% respectively [1]. - **IC期现价差**: Latest value -11.61, changed by -0.37, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 75.00% and 66.30% respectively [1]. - **IM期现价差**: Latest value 1.75, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 90.00% and 50.20% respectively [1]. - **跨品种比值**: For example, 中证500/沪深300 is 1.4889, changed by 0.0034, with historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of 64.70% and 42.30% respectively [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **基差**: TS基差 is 1.7699, changed by -0.0486, with a 33.80% percentile since listing; TF基差 is 1.6670, changed by 0.0449, with a 45.40% percentile since listing; T基差 is 1.7095, changed by 0.0064, with a 58.60% percentile since listing; TL基差 is 1.7864, changed by 0.3188, with a 63.80% percentile since listing [2]. - **跨期价差**: Different contracts have various values and changes, such as TS当季 - 下季 is -0.1180, changed by 0.0200, with an 8.00% percentile [2]. - **跨品种价差**: TS - TF is -3.6790, changed by 0.0320, with a 3.20% percentile; TS - T is -6.5490, changed by 0.0070, with a 1.40% percentile; TF - T is -2.8700, changed by -0.0250, with a 1.00% percentile [2]. Precious Metals Futures - **国内期货收盘价**: AU2508合约 is 792.30 yuan/gram, down 2.06 yuan (-0.26%) from June 13; AG2508合约 is 8858 yuan/kilogram, up 67 yuan (0.76%) [5]. - **外盘期货收盘价**: COMEX黄金主力合约 is 3404.30 dollars/ounce, down 48.30 dollars (-1.40%); COMEX白银主力合约 is 36.37 dollars, unchanged [5]. - **现货价格**: London gold is 3383.62 dollars/ounce, down 49.73 dollars (-1.45%); London silver is 36.29 dollars, unchanged [5]. - **基差**: 黄金TD - 沪金主力 is -4.37, down 0.87, with a 5.20% historical 1 - year percentile; 白银TD - 沪银主力 is -23, down 25, with a 46.10% historical 1 - year percentile [5]. - **比价**: COMEX金/银 is 93.60, down 1.33 (-1.40%); 上期所金/银 is 89.44, down 0.92 (-1.01%) [5]. Container Shipping Futures - **现货报价**: MAERSK马士基's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate is 2796 dollars/FEU, down 28 dollars (-2.03%); CMA达飞 is 3857 dollars/FEU, up 71 dollars (1.88%) [8]. - **集运指数**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1697.63, up 74.8 (4.61%); SCFIS (US West route) is 2908.68, up 723.6 (33.12%) [8]. - **期货价格及基差**: EC2602 is 1453.6, down 19.2 (-1.30%); EC2508 (主力) is 2030.0, down 38.0 (-1.84%); 基差 (主力) is -236.7, up 78.4 (-24.89%) [8]. - **基本面数据**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3248.57 FILEU, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate is 42.50, up 13.48 (46.45%) compared to April [8]. Data and Information - **海外数据/资讯**: Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, US May import price index monthly rate, US May industrial production monthly rate, etc. are to be released [10]. - **国内数据/资讯**: There is 1820 billion yuan of 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) due today; various inventory and production data of different commodities are to be updated [10].
国债期货周报-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:08
Report Summary 1. Core View - Treasury bond futures maintained a narrow - range oscillation last week with a slight upward movement throughout the week. The overall implementation of broad credit still needs time, while the trend of broad money remains unchanged. Although treasury bond futures have been oscillating higher recently, the overall trend in the future is still expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to arbitrage strategies, as well as allocation and hedging needs [2]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts oscillated upward this week. The TL contract had a relatively large increase due to fluctuations in the overall market's risk appetite, and the yield curve flattened again. In terms of basis characteristics, the basis trend was stable, and the IRR of the main contract was basically between 1.8 - 1.9, still higher than the funding rate but with reduced cost - effectiveness. Regarding the inter - delivery spread, the 09 - 12 combination rebounded slightly, reflecting a decline in market sentiment. Currently, market liquidity is limited and not suitable for operation. In terms of the curve structure, opportunities for the curve to steepen should be noted [3][5]. 2.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific summarized content provided in the report. 2.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.15%; foreign capital increased by 2.86%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.67%. In terms of weekly changes: private funds increased by 1.4%; foreign capital decreased by 3.33%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.86% [9].