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永安期货集运早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:19
기8 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਿੱਚ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持合变动 | | | EC2510 | | 1115.0 | -2.11 | રે રે | 16679 | | 29314 | -3117 | | | EC2512 | | 1756.3 | -1.16 | -635.8 | 11879 | | 20683 | -1012 | | | EC2602 | | 1667.0 | -1.07 | -546.5 | 4011 | | 8852 | 84 | | | EC2604 | | 1253.0 | -1.23 | -132.5 | | 1189 | 9110 | 11 | | 期货 | EC2606 | | 1452.7 | -2.08 | -332.2 | | 97 | 930 | -8 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前兩日 | 前三日 ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports Summary by Related Categories 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IM Spread Data**: IM's current - spot spread is -160.43, up 47.96 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 35.00% and an all - time quantile of 7.00%. Various IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1] - **Other Index Spreads**: Spreads of IF, IH, IC, etc., including current - spot spreads and inter - period spreads, have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, IC's far - month to quarterly - month spread is -173.40, up 0.60 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 2.00% [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, the CSI 500/SSE 50 ratio is 1.5910, down 0.0004 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 96.70% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis Data**: TS basis is 1.4369, down 0.0131 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 18.30%. TF basis is 1.4331, down 0.0116 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 35.70%. T basis is 1.5973, up 0.2089 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 55.00% [5] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, TS's current - quarter to next - quarter spread is 0.0860, with no change from the previous day, and an all - time quantile of 43.30% [5] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, TS - TF is -3.1590, up 0.0390 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 14.40% [5] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 866.52 on September 29, up 10.46 from September 26, a 1.22% increase. AG2512 contract closed at 10939, up 307 from September 26, a 2.89% increase. Foreign COMEX gold and silver also showed price increases [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, and domestic gold and silver spot prices all increased. For example, London gold rose from 3758.78 on September 26 to 3832.94 on September 29, a 1.97% increase [7] - **Basis and Other Data**: Basis data such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., have their values, changes, and quantiles. Inventory and position data of precious metals also showed certain changes [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates of MAERSK, CMA CGM, etc., showed different changes. For example, MAERSK's freight rate increased from 1613 on September 29 to 1645 on September 30, a 1.98% increase [8] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US - West route), and other indexes showed declines. For example, SCFIS (European route) decreased from 1254.92 on September 22 to 1120.49 on September 29, a 10.71% decrease [8] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., all decreased. The basis of the main contract decreased from -228.6 to -332.2, a 45.34% change [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. Shanghai's port on - time rate decreased by 43.80%, while port calls increased by 10.97%. Overseas economic indicators such as the Eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI showed slight increases [8]
集运日报:盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。-20250929
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 08:22
2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)1254.92点,较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)717.36点,较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美西航线)1193.64点,较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线)614.14点,较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(美西航线)868.22点,较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点,较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数)1087.41点,较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...
《金融》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:05
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年9月29日 | 品种 | 長新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | -25.05 | 17,60% | F期现价差 | 6.24 | 30.30% | | | | | | | | | | | HH相邮价案 | 76.40% | 3.38 | 2.52 | 74.1096 | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -160.91 | 13.81 | 2.40% | 0.20% | 16.32 | IM期现价差 | -208.39 | 30.00% | 2.60% | | 次月-当月 | -10.80 | 3.00 | 35.60% | 35,60% | 李月-崇月 | ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:56
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年9月29日 | 品种 | 長新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | -25.05 | 17,60% | F期现价差 | 6.24 | 30.30% | | | | | | | | | | | HH相邮价案 | 76.40% | 3.38 | 2.52 | 74.1096 | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -160.91 | 13.81 | 2.40% | 0.20% | 16.32 | IM期现价差 | -208.39 | 30.00% | 2.60% | | 次月-当月 | -10.80 | 3.00 | 35.60% | 35,60% | 李月-崇月 | ...
《金融》日报-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:35
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倚宁 | 2025年9月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | -31,29 | F期现价差 | 4.78 | 23.30% | 12.00% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 59.00% | 61.50% | 期现价差 | -174.72 | -8.01 | IC期现价差 | 1.60% | 0.10% | IM期现价差 | -224.71 | 6.31 | 25.0096 | 1.70% | | 次月-当月 | -13.80 | 1.00 | 26.60% | 30.30% | 李月-当月 | 47 ...
广发期货《金融》日报-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, such as price differences, basis, ratios, and related fundamental data, but do not explicitly state a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences and Percentiles**: On September 24, 2025, the F and H futures-spot price differences were 35.98 and 5.49 respectively, with changes of 2.63 and 4.66 from the previous day. The IC and IM futures-spot price differences were -240.11 and -281.07, with changes of -28.19 and -21.79 [1]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are various inter - period price differences for IF, H, IC, and IM, such as the "next month - current month" price differences and "far month - current month" price differences, with different historical percentile rankings and changes from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: There are multiple cross - variety ratios, like the ratios of IC/IH, IF/IH, and IM/IF, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: On September 23, 2025, the IRR for TS basis was 1.4835, TF basis was 1.4550, T basis was 1.4427, and TL basis was 1.2299, with corresponding changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are different inter - period price differences for TS, TF, T, and TL, such as "current quarter - next quarter" and "next quarter - far quarter", with historical percentile rankings and changes [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Cross - variety price differences like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are provided, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous day. The AG2512 contract closed at 10349 yuan/kg, up 0.31%. The COMEX gold and silver futures also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis values of gold and silver, such as "gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract" and "silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract", are provided, along with historical percentile rankings. Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver are also given [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Information on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate is provided. Inventory data for gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF holdings, are also presented [5]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The SCFI (US East) and SCFI (US West) had significant price drops. The futures prices of various EC contracts also changed, with the basis of the main contract increasing significantly [9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased, while the number of port calls increased. Some overseas economic indicators, such as the eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI, showed positive changes [9].
《金融》日报-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 03:10
| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月24日 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 全历史分位数 | 最新低 | 较前一日变化 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | | 9.10% | F期现价差 | 35.98 | 2.63 | 18.80% | H期现价差 | 5.49 | 4.66 | 82.70% | 85.80% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -240.11 | -28.19 | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.10% | IM期即价差 | -281.07 | -21.79 | 5.00% | 24.50% | 28.60% | 次月-当月 | -14.80 | -1.80 | | | 36.40% | 출日-景日 | -26 ...
永安期货集运早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the EC futures market is under pressure from spot prices. The price in early October is expected to decline, with a potential rebound in late October (before the National Day), but more likely to stabilize due to the off - season [1]. - From a medium - term perspective, considering multiple upward drivers, the 02 contract has a higher cost - performance for long - position allocation as the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), which may lead to a higher settlement price. The 04 contract, being an off - season contract, is suitable for short - position allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may cause price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the 02 and 04 contracts. Also, be aware of the pre - holiday position - reduction volatility and the capital transfer risk of the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contract Price and Trading Volume - **Contract Prices**: The prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are 1100.0, 1623.4, 1535.6, 1234.6, and 1421.3 respectively, with daily changes of 0.58%, - 1.84%, - 2.41%, - 3.17%, and - 2.28% [1]. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are 28527, 12535, 2521, 1838, and 157 respectively [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are 41508, 22118, 7601, 8854, and 961 respectively, with changes of - 4522, 162, 203, - 68, and 11 [1]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spreads - **EC2510 - 2512**: The spread is - 523.4, with a daily increase of 36.8 and a weekly increase of 38.9 [1]. - **EC2512 - 2602**: The spread is 87.8, with a daily increase of 7.5 and a weekly decrease of 5.4 [1]. 3.3 Spot Freight Rate Indexes - **TCI**: Updated every Monday, as of September 15, 2025, it is 1440.24 points, down 8.06% from the previous period and 11.68% from the period before that [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of September 19, 2025, it is 1052 dollars/EU, down 8.84% from the previous period and 12.24% from the period before that [1]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, as of September 19, 2025, it is 1470.97 points, down 4.31% from the previous period and 6.19% from the period before that [1]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, as of September 19, 2025, it is 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period and 14.78% from the period before that [1]. 3.4 European Line Spot Quotations - **Week 39**: The average quotation is 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk). MSK's quotation is 1500 dollars (later rising to 1570), PA Alliance's is 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance's is 1600 - 1720 dollars [2]. - **Week 40 - 41**: The average quotation is 1450 dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the disk). MSK's is 1400 dollars; PA's is 1300 - 1500 dollars, with YML's 1300 dollars being the lowest price of the year; OA's is 1400 - 1600 dollars [2]. 3.5 Related News - On September 23, the Polish Prime Minister decided to reopen the border crossing with Russia. The Polish Interior Minister is expected to issue a relevant order, and border traffic is expected to resume between Wednesday and Thursday midnight [3]. - On September 23, Trump expected the meeting on the Gaza issue to be successful and hoped for an end to the war in Gaza [3]. - A UN investigation report showed that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control in the Gaza Strip [3].
异动点评:现货遇冷,集运期货盘面持续下跌
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 11:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]