ચીટ | | | | | A B A 1 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/18 | | | ਵਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 選 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1632.0 | 0.03% | -121.4 | 390 | | 2218 | -348 | | | EC2602 | | 1699.8 | 0.77% | -189.2 | 24199 | | 31971 | -512 | | | EC2604 | | 1124.1 | 1.02% | 386.5 | 4585 | | 19059 | -869 | | | EC2606 | | 1283.7 | -0.49% | 226.9 | 223 | | 2306 | 1 | | | EC2608 | | 1448.1 | -0.98% | 62.5 | ਦੇ ਰੇ | ...

填运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਦੇ ਹੋ EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1653.1 | 涨跌 -0.12% | 基差 -144.0 | 昨日成交量 241 | | 昨日持仓量 3031 | 持仓变动 -138 | | | EC2602 | | 1689.0 | 1.43% | -179.9 | 18659 | | 31623 | 241 | | | EC2604 | | 1092.7 | 1.11% | 416.4 | 2137 | | 19277 | ਦਿੱਤ | | | EC2606 | | 1227.0 | 0.11% | 282.1 | 159 | | 2296 | 22 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1381.8 | 0.21% | 127.3 | 80 | | 1551 | 2 | | | EC2610 | | 1021.6 | -0.33% | 487.5 | 259 | | 4291 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide data and statistics on various financial instruments and industries, such as stock index futures spreads, futures spreads, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: The report provides data on the spreads of various stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IE spot - futures spread was 15.97 with a change of -3.12 compared to the previous day, and the 1 - year and all - time quantiles were 52.40% and 28.60% respectively [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: It details inter - period spreads like the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, and the far - month and next - month contracts for different futures varieties. For instance, in IF, the next - month - current - month spread was -18.40 with a change of -2.40, and the 1 - year and all - time quantiles were 22.10% and 24.70% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 1000/SSE 300, and IC/IF are presented. For example, the IC/IF ratio was 1.5413 with a change of 0.0030 [1]. Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: Information on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of different futures contracts is given. For example, for the 15 - year bond futures, the IRR was 0.0663 on 2025 - 12 - 04 with a change of 0.0054, and the TF basis was 0.9011 on the same date [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different maturities of futures contracts (TS, TF, T, and TL) are provided. For example, the TS next - quarter - current - quarter spread was 0.0340 on 2025 - 12 - 04 with a 1 - year quantile of 25.90% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are presented. For example, TS - TF was -3.2270 on 2025 - 12 - 04 with a 1 - year quantile of 16.50% [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices of precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) are reported. For example, the AU2602 contract closed at 953.42 yuan/gram on December 4, 2025, down 0.34% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold futures) and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) are provided. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold futures basis was -4.98 with a change of 2.18 and a 1 - year quantile of 7.20% [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Information on interest rates (10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield), exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate), and inventories (上期所 and COMEX gold and silver inventories, ETF holdings) is included. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.11% on December 4, 2025, up 1.2% from the previous day [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes (SCFIS for European and US - West routes), Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI comprehensive index, SCFI for different routes) are presented. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1483.65 points on December 1, 2025, down 9.50% from November 24 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping contracts (EC2602, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided. For example, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1585.0 points on December 4, 2025, up 2.92% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was -101.4, down 79.54% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), export amounts, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI) are included. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3349.44 million TEU on December 4, 2025, with no change from the previous day [5].

12逐步走向交割逻辑, 跟随现货, P1大约在1600点左右，P2和P3对标12月下半月，观察船司宣涨与落地情况 ગઢ | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 台钓 | | 昨日收卷公 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | FC2512 | | 1650.0 | -7.29% | -10.6 | 6884 | | 6454 | -403 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.5 | -7.34% | 185.9 | 51412 | | 48279 | 4946 | | | EC2604 | | 1126.4 | -1.37% | 513.0 | 5004 | | 17016 | 920 | | | EC2606 | | 1338.0 | -1.49% | 301.4 | 272 | | 1629 | 95 | | | EC2608 | | 1464.0 | -1.62% | 175. ...

Market Overview - As of November 14, gold prices fell by 2.20% to $4080.04 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.98% from $3998.67 to $4245.23 before the decline [1] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.70% to $4081.00 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 1.75% [1] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, Nasdaq up 0.13%, and S&P 500 down 0.05% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 1.6%, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and JD.com and Xpeng Motors down over 4% [1] U.S. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. government has removed certain agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list as per a new executive order signed by President Trump [3] - The adjustments are based on domestic product demand and capacity assessments, with the updated tariff exemptions effective from November 13, 2025 [3] Geopolitical Tensions - Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova warned NATO against any potential attacks, stating that Russia is prepared to respond with all necessary force [5] - The situation remains tense with ongoing military activities near the Russian border [5] Shipping and Freight Market - The shipping futures market is under pressure due to spot market conditions and the situation in the Red Sea, with near-term freight rates showing weakness [10] - Several shipping companies have lowered their quotes for the second half of November, with Maersk reducing its Week 48 opening price to $2000-$2100 per FEU [11] - The overall sentiment for December pricing remains uncertain, with some companies announcing price increases while others maintain a cautious approach [12][13] - The potential for resuming shipping routes through the Red Sea is increasing, but most companies remain cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the EC2602 contract's price rose due to early rumors of the 02 pricing index, and other contracts were also driven up. However, in the afternoon, the EC2512 contract dropped significantly because MSK opened cabins and lowered prices. The EC2512 contract has a neutral valuation and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation of the price - holding strategy in December. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term following the spot price and shipping companies' announcements. The EC2602 contract's valuation is harder to determine and is expected to mainly follow the EC2512 contract in the short - term. If the shipping volume during the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is a slack - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term during the peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure and the slack season in April next year, a short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1746.1, down 1.81%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1690.5, up 5.33%; the EC2604 contract closed at 1187.8, up 1.86%; the FC2606 contract closed at 1423.9, up 2.06%; the EC2608 contract closed at 1545.0, up 3.33%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1137.5, up 0.30% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of the EC2512 contract decreased by 1475 to 25205; the EC2602 contract increased by 4654 to 29350; the EC2604 contract increased by 279 to 14730; the FC2606 contract decreased by 23 to 1423; the EC2608 contract decreased by 73 to 1213; the EC2610 contract increased by 122 to 1607 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.3, down 56.8 from the previous day and 109.0 from the previous week; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 55.6, down 117.7 from the previous day and 203.9 from the previous week; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 502.7, up 63.9 from the previous day and 94.9 from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot Indices - **SCEIS**: Updated every Monday, as of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80 points, up 24.50% from the previous period and down - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down - 1.56% from the previous period and up 7.87% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period and up 2.37% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down - 5.58% from the previous period and up 17.43% from two periods ago [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Freight Quotes - **45th Week**: The average freight rate was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **46th Week**: The average freight rate was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **Shipping Companies' Quotes**: Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for mid - to - late November, but MSK opened cabins at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week and may announce a price increase for December. OOCL lowered its online quote for November by 300 US dollars to 2600 US dollars. MSK's cabin - opening quote for the 48th week was 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 US dollars on the futures disk [2]. 3.4 Related News - **Geopolitical News**: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has expired. Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the agreement, and the second - stage cease - fire negotiation is still "far from sight" [3]. - **Policy News**: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant regulations on charging special port fees for US ships for one year, synchronizing with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - contract has multiple price increase announcements in the follow - up, driven by positive factors such as long - term agreement signing from November to December, but the valuation is not low. It is recommended to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy, following the spot market [3][16]. - The valuation of the 02 - contract is difficult to determine with high uncertainty. It is expected to mainly follow the 12 - contract in the next month, and also adopt a "buy on dips" strategy [3][16]. - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract. It maintains a wide - range oscillation in the current peak - season logic. Considering greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of flights, a "short - selling on highs" strategy is recommended [3][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Closing Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1848.2 with a - 5.03% change; EC2602 at 1601.0 with - 3.09% and - 1.80% changes; EC2604 at 1178.0; EC2606 at 1414.2 with a - 0.83% change; EC2608 at 1484.0 with a - 0.88% change; EC2610 at 1140.0 with a - 0.25% change [2][15]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: EC2512 had a volume of 35518 and an open interest of 28412 with a change of - 5560; EC2602 had a volume of 9591 and an open interest of 22625 with a change of 273 - 3749; EC2604 had a volume of 2051 and an open interest of 14208; EC2606 had a volume of 132 and an open interest of 1455 with a change of - 9; EC2608 had a volume of 120 and an open interest of 1306 with a change of - 31; EC2610 had a volume of 269 and an open interest of 1432 with a change of 156 [2][15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: EC2512 - 2504 spread was 670.2 with a day - on - day change of - 76.2 and a week - on - week change of - 6.4; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 247.2 with a day - on - day change of - 46.8 and a week - on - week change of - 17.8; EC2502 - 2604 spread was 423.0 with a day - on - day change of - 29.4 and a week - on - week change of 11.4 [2][15]. Index Information - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Mondays and the ninth day of the week. On 2025/11/3, it was 1208.71 points with a - 7.92% change from the previous period; on 2025/10/31, it was 1344 dollars/TEU with a 7.87% change [2][15]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly on the ninth day of the week. On 2025/10/31, it was 1323.81 points with a 2.37% change [2][15]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly on the ninth day of the week. On 2025/10/31, it was 965.62 points with a 17.43% change [2][15]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream is booking cabins for early November (week 45 - 46). In week 46, PA slightly improved, and shipping companies could fill all cabins, but the capacity was very low. After week 45's cargo - booking ended, the pressure increased in the second half of November. The average price was about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures). In the first half of November, PA had the largest price cut. Shipping companies mostly announced price increases to 2500 - 3100 dollars in the second half of November, and MSK quoted 2250 dollars [4][17]. Shipping Company Price Announcements - On Monday, the freight rate remained unchanged. MSC and HPL announced price increases for the second half of November to 3000 and 3100 dollars/FEU respectively. MSK's opening price for the second half of November was 2250 (+50) dollars/FEU, lower than the previous market expectation of 2400 - 2500 dollars. MSK also announced a price increase to 3200 dollars for December on the European line, while MSC's price dropped to 2365 dollars [5][18]. - On Thursday, ONE opened at 2600 dollars, and YML opened at 2550 dollars [6][19].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports are a collection of daily market data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, precious metals, container shipping, and bond futures. They present the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical percentile rankings, and other relevant information, which can help investors understand the current market conditions and trends of these products. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF, IH, IC, IM期现价差**: IF期现价差 is -29.70, down 11.10 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 27.80% and an all - time percentile of 13.60%. Similar data is provided for IH, IC, and IM期现价差 [1]. - **IF, IH, IC, IM跨期价差**: Multiple spread data between different contract months are given for each of these futures types, showing their latest values, daily changes, and historical percentile rankings [1]. - **跨品种比值**: Ratios such as 中证500/沪深300, 中证500/上证50, IF/IH, and IM/IF are presented with their latest values, daily changes, and historical percentile rankings [1]. Bond Futures - **基差 and IRR**: IRR and basis data for different bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) are provided, including their latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile rankings since the contract's listing [4]. - **跨期价差**: Spread data between different contract months for TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile rankings [4]. - **跨品种价差**: Spreads between different bond futures (TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T, etc.) are given with their latest values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [4]. Precious Metals - **期货收盘价**: Domestic (AU2512, AG2512) and foreign (COMEX gold and silver) futures closing prices are presented for November 4th and November 3rd, along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **现货价格**: Spot prices of London gold and silver, and Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D products are given for November 4th and November 3rd, with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **基差**: Basis data for gold and silver (TD - futures, London - COMEX) are provided, including their latest values, changes, and historical 1 - year percentile rankings [5]. - **FRA and Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX金/银 and 上期所金/银 are presented with their latest values, changes, and percentage changes [5]. - **利率与汇率**: Interest rates (10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS) and exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate) are given with their latest values, changes, and percentage changes [5]. - **库存与持仓**: Inventory and position data for domestic and foreign precious metals are provided, including their latest values, changes, and percentage changes [5]. Container Shipping - **现货报价**: Spot freight rates for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies (MAERSK, CMA, MSC, etc.) are presented for November 4th and November 3rd, with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **集运指数**: Settlement price indices for European and US - West routes (SCFIS), and Shanghai export container freight indices (SCFI) are given with their changes and percentage changes over different time periods [7]. - **期货价格及基差**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2512, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are presented for November 4th and November 3rd, with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **基本面数据**: Data on container shipping supply (global container shipping capacity) and foreign - trade - related indicators (port punctuality rate, port calls, monthly export value) are provided, along with overseas economic data (eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) [7].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM for both spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **IF Spreads**: IF spot - futures spread is - 18.60, down 9.34 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 40.90% and an all - time percentile of 24.70%. For inter - period spreads, differences exist among different contract combinations [1]. - **IH Spreads**: IH spot - futures spread is 0.25, down 3.40 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 57.30% and an all - time percentile of 57.90%. Inter - period spreads also show various values and changes [1]. - **IC Spreads**: IC spot - futures spread is - 94.00, down 5.40 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 22.50% and an all - time percentile of 4.00%. Inter - period spreads have significant differences in different combinations [1]. - **IM Spreads**: IM spot - futures spread is - 140.12, down 1.64 from the previous day, with a 1 - year percentile of 65.00% and an all - time percentile of 11.30%. Inter - period spreads vary across different contracts [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous day, and percentiles since listing of basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis**: For TS, TF, T, and TL, the basis values are 1.7072, 1.8596, 1.7662, and 1.3845 respectively on November 3, 2025, with corresponding changes and percentiles [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Each type of treasury bond futures has different inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - far quarter) with their own values, changes, and percentiles [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads between different types of treasury bond futures (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) are presented with their values, changes, and percentiles [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, FRA, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver), along with their changes and percentiles [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Domestic Futures**: AU2512 contract closed at 922.58 yuan/gram on November 3, up 0.66 yuan (0.07%) from the previous day. AG2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan/kg, up 14 yuan (0.12%) [4]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold and silver futures prices decreased on November 3 compared to the previous day, with COMEX gold down 0.62% and COMEX silver down 0.99% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold and silver, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + D prices also changed, with London gold down 0.04% and London silver down 1.21% [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 1.48, with a 1 - year percentile of 55.80%. The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract increased by 18, with a 1 - year percentile of 71.40% [4]. - **FRA and Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio increased by 0.37%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio decreased by 0.05% [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.5%, the US dollar index increased by 1.52%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories decreased, such as COMEX gold inventory down 0.44% and COMEX silver inventory down 0.02%. SPRD gold ETF position decreased by 0.11% [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report includes spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry, showing their changes and related percentage changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Spot Quotes**: Spot freight rates from Shanghai to Europe of different shipping companies changed on November 4, 2025. For example, MAERSK increased by 8.81%, while CMA decreased by 0.58% [6]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) decreased by 7.92%, while SCFIS (US West route) increased by 14.43%. Shanghai Export Container Freight Index also had different changes in different routes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: All futures contracts of EC series increased on November 3 compared to the previous day. The basis of the main contract (EC2512) decreased by 12.4 (4.73%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. Port on - time rate in Shanghai increased by 133.59%, while port calls decreased by 9.59%. Monthly export volume increased by 2.15%. Overseas economic indicators also changed, such as the eurozone's composite PMI increasing by 1.95% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and partial profit-taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and for the US West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% [2]. - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% [2]. - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sentiment [3]. - In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the Service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Service PMI in October was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52, and the previous value was 52; the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3]. Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - lovers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it has been recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5].