Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, and it is necessary to observe whether there are opportunities for basis repair. Although historically, the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads have appropriate valuations, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation [2] 3. Detailed Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Futures Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2604 closed at 1915.0 with a 0.51% increase, EC2605 at 2168.0 with a 1.45% increase, EC2606 at 2386.2 with a 1.89% increase, EC2607 at 2530.0 with a 2.22% increase, EC2608 at 2366.0 with a 2.16% increase, EC2609 at 1712.0 with a 1.10% increase, EC2610 at 1561.6 with a 2.37% increase, and EC2612 at 1742.8 with a 1.40% increase [2] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2604 decreased by 1272, EC2605 decreased by 3, EC2606 decreased by 95, EC2607 increased by 36, EC2608 decreased by 30, EC2609 decreased by 14, EC2610 decreased by 175, and EC2612 increased by 3 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 471.2, with a daily decrease of 34.5 and a weekly decrease of 1.3; the spread of EC2604 - 2605 was - 253, with a daily decrease of 21.3 and a weekly decrease of 245.4; the spread of EC2606 - 2610 was 824.6, with a daily increase of 8.0 and a weekly decrease of 34.4 [2] Spot Information - **SCFIS and SCFI**: The SCFIS (European line) index on March 9, 2026, was 1545.46 points, with a 5.61% increase from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on March 13, 2026, was 1618 dollars/TEU, with an 11.43% increase from the previous period [2] - **European Line Spot Quotes**: In Week 12, the average spot price was 2450 dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market. In Week 13, the average spot price was equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points on the futures market. COSCO announced a price increase for the European line in April to 5100 dollars, and CMA announced a price increase to 3500 dollars [2][3] News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would suspend attacks on Iran's main gas fields, but still sought "regime change" in Iran and hinted at a possible ground operation. He also said that the war would end faster than expected [4]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S.-Iran conflict has significant impacts on various sectors, with prices in energy, precious metals, chemicals, and container shipping likely to be affected [8][9]. - The development of the conflict has three scenarios, each with different impacts on the market [8][27]. - Different sectors will respond differently to the conflict, with some being more directly affected and others being more indirectly affected [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Development Progress - On February 28 local time, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, and Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was reported killed in an attack on the same morning [21][23][59]. - As of March 1, most vessels around the Strait of Hormuz remained congested and awaiting passage [22][59]. - Three scenarios for subsequent event development are envisioned: symbolic Iranian retaliation and rapid regime transition; stable Iranian regime and intensified retaliation; prolonged but contained conflict [27][62]. Crude Oil - Crude prices have been supported by U.S.-Iran tensions since January, and after the February 28 military escalation, the market will test whether geopolitical risks translate into actual supply disruptions [9][31][63]. - If conflicts remain limited to military targets and end quickly, Brent crude is expected to trade between $70–$78/bbl before retreating. If production or transport is impacted, short-term price elasticity will increase [9][31][63]. - China's domestic crude futures may see additional support from rising tanker costs and increased demand for alternative crudes, widening the spread between domestic and international benchmarks [9][31][63]. Chemicals - Chemicals like methanol, MEG, fuel oil, and LPG may rise short-term due to geopolitical, cost, and transport concerns, but major facilities in the region remain largely undamaged [10][50]. - Continued attention is needed on conflict duration and strait accessibility [10][50]. Natural Gas - The impact of the Iran situation on the global natural gas market depends primarily on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [11][38][69]. - A phased slowdown in trade flows following a conflict escalation would provide bullish support to gas prices in Europe and Asia. If a sustained and significant drop in Middle Eastern LNG exports emerges later, it would further stimulate price increases in Eurasian gas markets [11][38][69]. Precious Metals - Precious metals may benefit from rising safe-haven demand in the short term, but the sustainability of rallies depends on the severity and longevity of geopolitical tensions [12][39][70]. - Gold and silver prices could challenge recent highs in March [13][40][70]. Container Shipping - Freight rates on Middle Eastern container routes have already increased, and war surcharges are a key focus. Other routes may follow [14][41][71]. - The Middle East accounts for ~5% of global container volume, with ~3% transiting the Strait of Hormuz [14][41][71]. - The April contract highs could reach 1,450–1,500 points [14][41][72]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The U.S.-Iran military conflict is likely to intensify concerns over potential supply shocks in the near term, providing upward impetus to base metal prices [15][42][73]. - In the medium term, base metals are expected to continue to exhibit a volatile but bullish trend [15][42][73]. Ferrous Metals - The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on ferrous metals is primarily sentiment-driven, with minimal direct supply or cost transmission [16][44][74]. - Higher oil prices may raise seaborne iron ore transport costs, but with a lag [16][44][74]. Agriculture - The U.S.-Iran conflict affects the agriculture sector mainly through oil price volatility, with synthetic rubber being the most sensitive [17][45][75]. - Traditional crops may see mild gains from higher fertilizer costs, but historical data shows low sensitivity in agricultural markets [18][45][75]. U.S. Treasuries - A prolonged conflict could erode the safe-haven appeal of U.S. assets [19][46][76]. - Treasury yields are more tied to domestic fundamentals than geopolitics [19][46][76]. Chinese Government Bonds - Risk-off sentiment may support bond markets, but policy uncertainty looms [20][48][78]. - Short-term, bonds may see upward momentum, but pre-meeting policy speculation could lead to range-bound trading. Medium-term, potential RRR/cut cuts may support a bullish bias [20][48][78].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - There is no obvious trend in the recent market, and the futures market fluctuates widely around the MSK cabin opening news. For contracts after 02, the focus is on the spot price trend. The contradiction lies in the peak height and time of freight rates in January. Historically, freight rate highs often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival, but high capacity in January may suppress the increase. Currently, the profit - loss ratio for both short and long positions is not high, so it is recommended to wait and see. For contract 04, the short - term downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities when it follows the spot price or recovers the basis. For far - month contracts, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for contract 10 [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On December 18, 2025, EC2512 closed at 1632.0 with a 0.03% increase; EC2602 closed at 1699.8 with a 0.77% increase; EC2604 closed at 1124.1 with a 1.02% increase; EC2606 closed at 1283.7 with a 0.49% decrease; EC2608 closed at 1448.1 with a 0.98% decrease; EC2610 closed at 1045.2 with a 0.38% increase [2][12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 390, and the open interest was 2218 with a decrease of 348; EC2602 had a trading volume of 24199, and the open interest was 31971 with a decrease of 512; EC2604 had a trading volume of 4585, and the open interest was 19059 with a decrease of 869; EC2606 had a trading volume of 223, and the open interest was 2306 with an increase of 1; EC2608 had a trading volume of - (not clear), and the open interest was 1325 with a decrease of 26; EC2610 had a trading volume of 417, and the open interest was 4795 with an increase of 84 [2][12] - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 507.9, a decrease of 10.9 compared to the previous day and 83.2 compared to the previous week; EC2512 - 2602 was - 67.8, a decrease of 12.5 compared to the previous day and 112.7 compared to the previous week; EC2502 - 2604 was 5/5.7, an increase of 1.6 compared to the previous day and 29.5 compared to the previous week [2][12] Spot Market - **European Line Spot Freight Rates**: In Week 51, MSK opened at 2400 (a month - on - month increase of 200), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars. The current central price was 1760 US dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market. In Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (a month - on - month decrease of 100), and other companies mainly followed the prices in Week 51. MSC opened at 2864 US dollars (a month - on - month increase of 200), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures market. MSK's opening quotes for the China - Europe line to London were 2700 US dollars/FEU (2800 for 40 - foot high - cube containers), and 2500 US dollars/FEU for European base ports such as Rotterdam (2600 for 40 - foot high - cube containers) [4][14] - **Spot Freight Rate Indexes**: As of December 15, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was 1510.56 points, a 0.10% increase from the previous period; the freight rate was 1538 US dollars/TEU, a 9.86% increase. As of December 12, 2025, the CCFI was 1470.55 points, a 1.59% increase; the NCFI was 1064.13 points, a 9.98% increase [2][12] Related News - On December 17, the head of the Mossad claimed that Iran still desired to build nuclear weapons, increasing the possibility of further conflict between the two countries [5][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic with little deviation and low positions. MSK lowered the freight rate for the last week to $2300, weaker than the previous flat - expected view, but the PA remained relatively firm at $2400 in the second half of the month [3]. - The 02 - contract has a moderately high valuation, showing short - term sideways movement. In the future, the driving force is upward due to strong and recovering cargo volume. Historically, the freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (corresponding to mid - to late January 2026), but the high capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. It is recommended to wait and see at the current valuation [3]. - The short - term downside space of the 04 - contract is small. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities on rallies that may occur when the 04 - contract follows the near - month contract's rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Quotes - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For example, EC2512 closed at 1653.1 with a decline of 0.12%, EC2602 at 1689.0 with an increase of 1.43%, etc. [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: EC2512 had a trading volume of 241 and an open interest of 3031 with a decrease of 138; EC2602 had a volume of 18659 and an open interest of 31623 with an increase of 241 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2512 - 2504 was 560.4, showing a daily decrease of 14.0 and a weekly decrease of 10.0; EC2512 - 2602 was - 35.9, with a daily decrease of 25.8 and a weekly decrease of 149.3 [2]. Spot Freight Rates - **Week 50**: MSK's opening rate dropped to $2200, setting the tone. Other shipping companies followed suit, with OA at $2300 - 2400 and PA at $1900 - 2100. The current central rate is $2200, equivalent to 1550 points on the disk [3]. - **Week 51**: MSK opened at $2400, OA at $2500 - 2600, and PA at $2400 [3]. - **Week 52**: MSK's opening quote was $2300 (down $100 from the previous week), OA at $2500 - 2600, PA at $2400, and the central rate was $2500 (equivalent to 1700 points on the disk) [3]. - **Thursday**: ONE, HMM, and YML all lowered their rates to $2400 [4]. - **January**: MSK issued a price - increase letter for January, raising the freight rates of 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers on the European route to $2275 and $3500 respectively [4]. Index Data - **SCFI (European Route)**: Updated weekly. On December 8, 2025, it was 1483.65 points, up 1.72% from the previous period and down 9.50% from two periods ago; in terms of dollars/TEU, it was $1404, down 0.28% from the previous period and up 2.71% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly. On December 5, 2025, it was 1447.56 points, down 0.12% from the previous period and up 1.14% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly. On December 5, 2025, it was 967.55 points, down 5.57% from the previous period and up 7.67% from two periods ago [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the reports. The documents mainly provide data and statistics on various financial instruments and industries, such as stock index futures spreads, futures spreads, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: The report provides data on the spreads of various stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IE spot - futures spread was 15.97 with a change of -3.12 compared to the previous day, and the 1 - year and all - time quantiles were 52.40% and 28.60% respectively [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: It details inter - period spreads like the difference between the next - month and current - month contracts, and the far - month and next - month contracts for different futures varieties. For instance, in IF, the next - month - current - month spread was -18.40 with a change of -2.40, and the 1 - year and all - time quantiles were 22.10% and 24.70% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 300, CSI 1000/SSE 300, and IC/IF are presented. For example, the IC/IF ratio was 1.5413 with a change of 0.0030 [1]. Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: Information on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of different futures contracts is given. For example, for the 15 - year bond futures, the IRR was 0.0663 on 2025 - 12 - 04 with a change of 0.0054, and the TF basis was 0.9011 on the same date [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different maturities of futures contracts (TS, TF, T, and TL) are provided. For example, the TS next - quarter - current - quarter spread was 0.0340 on 2025 - 12 - 04 with a 1 - year quantile of 25.90% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are presented. For example, TS - TF was -3.2270 on 2025 - 12 - 04 with a 1 - year quantile of 16.50% [2]. Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices of precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) are reported. For example, the AU2602 contract closed at 953.42 yuan/gram on December 4, 2025, down 0.34% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold futures) and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) are provided. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold futures basis was -4.98 with a change of 2.18 and a 1 - year quantile of 7.20% [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Information on interest rates (10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield), exchange rates (US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate), and inventories (上期所 and COMEX gold and silver inventories, ETF holdings) is included. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.11% on December 4, 2025, up 1.2% from the previous day [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes (SCFIS for European and US - West routes), Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI comprehensive index, SCFI for different routes) are presented. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1483.65 points on December 1, 2025, down 9.50% from November 24 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of container shipping contracts (EC2602, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided. For example, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1585.0 points on December 4, 2025, up 2.92% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was -101.4, down 79.54% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), export amounts, and overseas economic indicators (eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI) are included. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3349.44 million TEU on December 4, 2025, with no change from the previous day [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the price cut in week49 and Maersk's low - opening expectation for week50, the near - month contract disk dropped significantly. The FC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic and follows the spot price, with P1 around 1600 points, and P2 and P3 corresponding to the second half of December. Observe the shipping companies' price increase announcements and implementation [2][13]. - The valuation of the EC2602 contract is moderately low. It's difficult to prove or disprove the off - peak season in the short term, especially when the price support in early December was not ideal. This year, the Chinese New Year is late, and pre - Spring Festival shipments have not fully started, so it's normal that the price has not significantly recovered. The overall cargo volume on the European route this year is good. Although the shipping capacity is high from December to January, if the peak season is gradually realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential, and an overly pessimistic outlook is not given. Subsequently, observe the cargo - booking situation [2][13]. - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling approach on rallies is still recommended [2][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of FC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on the previous day were 1650.0, 1453.5, 1126.4, 1338.0, 1464.0, and 1108.0 respectively, with price changes of - 7.29%, - 7.34%, - 1.37%, - 1.49%, - 1.62%, and - 0.18% respectively [2][13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The previous trading volumes of FC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 6884, 51412, 5004, 272, 171, and 563 respectively, and the open interests were 6454, 48279, 17016, 1629, 1399, and 2556 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 403, 4946, 920, 95, 74, and 65 respectively [2][13]. - **Month - spread Data**: The month - spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 on the previous day were 523.6, 196.5, and 327.1 respectively, with daily changes of - 114.0, - 14.6, and - 99.4 respectively, and weekly changes of - 81.0, 130.2, and - 211.2 respectively [2][13]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Spot Indexes**: The SCHI (European route) index on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37 US dollars/TEU, with a period - on - period increase of 20.75% and a previous - period decrease of - 9.78%. The CCFI index on November 21, 2025, was 1432.96 points, with a period - on - period increase of 2.09% and a previous - period increase of 2.69%. The NCFI index on November 21, 2025, was 951.65 points, with a period - on - period decrease of - 2.83% and a previous - period increase of 7.42% [2][13]. - **Recent Spot Situation**: The overall average price of week48 was about 2200 US dollars (equivalent to about 1540 points on the disk). In week49, the offline quotes of the GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2300 - 2500 US dollars, and that of the OA alliance was between 2300 - 2600 US dollars, with an average of about 2400 US dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the disk). Subsequently, OOCL reduced the price to 2530 US dollars, CMA to 2645 US dollars, HPL to 2300 US dollars, and OOCL to 2300 US dollars. Maersk opened the cabin at 2200 US dollars for week50 [3][14]. 3.3 Related News - On November 25, local time, the Egyptian Intelligence Bureau Director and the Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire. They agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation and coordination with the US to maintain the cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [4][15]. - Maersk's CEO stated that due to the significant progress in Gaza and the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, Maersk will take measures to resume shipping through the Suez Canal. Maersk's spokesperson said that the previous statement by the Suez Canal Authority about resuming navigation in December was false [4][15].

Market Overview - As of November 14, gold prices fell by 2.20% to $4080.04 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.98% from $3998.67 to $4245.23 before the decline [1] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.70% to $4081.00 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 1.75% [1] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, Nasdaq up 0.13%, and S&P 500 down 0.05% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell over 1.6%, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and JD.com and Xpeng Motors down over 4% [1] U.S. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. government has removed certain agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariff" list as per a new executive order signed by President Trump [3] - The adjustments are based on domestic product demand and capacity assessments, with the updated tariff exemptions effective from November 13, 2025 [3] Geopolitical Tensions - Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova warned NATO against any potential attacks, stating that Russia is prepared to respond with all necessary force [5] - The situation remains tense with ongoing military activities near the Russian border [5] Shipping and Freight Market - The shipping futures market is under pressure due to spot market conditions and the situation in the Red Sea, with near-term freight rates showing weakness [10] - Several shipping companies have lowered their quotes for the second half of November, with Maersk reducing its Week 48 opening price to $2000-$2100 per FEU [11] - The overall sentiment for December pricing remains uncertain, with some companies announcing price increases while others maintain a cautious approach [12][13] - The potential for resuming shipping routes through the Red Sea is increasing, but most companies remain cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the EC2602 contract's price rose due to early rumors of the 02 pricing index, and other contracts were also driven up. However, in the afternoon, the EC2512 contract dropped significantly because MSK opened cabins and lowered prices. The EC2512 contract has a neutral valuation and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation of the price - holding strategy in December. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term following the spot price and shipping companies' announcements. The EC2602 contract's valuation is harder to determine and is expected to mainly follow the EC2512 contract in the short - term. If the shipping volume during the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is a slack - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term during the peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure and the slack season in April next year, a short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1746.1, down 1.81%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1690.5, up 5.33%; the EC2604 contract closed at 1187.8, up 1.86%; the FC2606 contract closed at 1423.9, up 2.06%; the EC2608 contract closed at 1545.0, up 3.33%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1137.5, up 0.30% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of the EC2512 contract decreased by 1475 to 25205; the EC2602 contract increased by 4654 to 29350; the EC2604 contract increased by 279 to 14730; the FC2606 contract decreased by 23 to 1423; the EC2608 contract decreased by 73 to 1213; the EC2610 contract increased by 122 to 1607 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.3, down 56.8 from the previous day and 109.0 from the previous week; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 55.6, down 117.7 from the previous day and 203.9 from the previous week; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 502.7, up 63.9 from the previous day and 94.9 from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot Indices - **SCEIS**: Updated every Monday, as of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80 points, up 24.50% from the previous period and down - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down - 1.56% from the previous period and up 7.87% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period and up 2.37% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down - 5.58% from the previous period and up 17.43% from two periods ago [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Freight Quotes - **45th Week**: The average freight rate was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **46th Week**: The average freight rate was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **Shipping Companies' Quotes**: Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for mid - to - late November, but MSK opened cabins at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week and may announce a price increase for December. OOCL lowered its online quote for November by 300 US dollars to 2600 US dollars. MSK's cabin - opening quote for the 48th week was 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 US dollars on the futures disk [2]. 3.4 Related News - **Geopolitical News**: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has expired. Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the agreement, and the second - stage cease - fire negotiation is still "far from sight" [3]. - **Policy News**: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant regulations on charging special port fees for US ships for one year, synchronizing with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - contract has multiple price increase announcements in the follow - up, driven by positive factors such as long - term agreement signing from November to December, but the valuation is not low. It is recommended to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy, following the spot market [3][16]. - The valuation of the 02 - contract is difficult to determine with high uncertainty. It is expected to mainly follow the 12 - contract in the next month, and also adopt a "buy on dips" strategy [3][16]. - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract. It maintains a wide - range oscillation in the current peak - season logic. Considering greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of flights, a "short - selling on highs" strategy is recommended [3][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Closing Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1848.2 with a - 5.03% change; EC2602 at 1601.0 with - 3.09% and - 1.80% changes; EC2604 at 1178.0; EC2606 at 1414.2 with a - 0.83% change; EC2608 at 1484.0 with a - 0.88% change; EC2610 at 1140.0 with a - 0.25% change [2][15]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: EC2512 had a volume of 35518 and an open interest of 28412 with a change of - 5560; EC2602 had a volume of 9591 and an open interest of 22625 with a change of 273 - 3749; EC2604 had a volume of 2051 and an open interest of 14208; EC2606 had a volume of 132 and an open interest of 1455 with a change of - 9; EC2608 had a volume of 120 and an open interest of 1306 with a change of - 31; EC2610 had a volume of 269 and an open interest of 1432 with a change of 156 [2][15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: EC2512 - 2504 spread was 670.2 with a day - on - day change of - 76.2 and a week - on - week change of - 6.4; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 247.2 with a day - on - day change of - 46.8 and a week - on - week change of - 17.8; EC2502 - 2604 spread was 423.0 with a day - on - day change of - 29.4 and a week - on - week change of 11.4 [2][15]. Index Information - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Mondays and the ninth day of the week. On 2025/11/3, it was 1208.71 points with a - 7.92% change from the previous period; on 2025/10/31, it was 1344 dollars/TEU with a 7.87% change [2][15]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly on the ninth day of the week. On 2025/10/31, it was 1323.81 points with a 2.37% change [2][15]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly on the ninth day of the week. On 2025/10/31, it was 965.62 points with a 17.43% change [2][15]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream is booking cabins for early November (week 45 - 46). In week 46, PA slightly improved, and shipping companies could fill all cabins, but the capacity was very low. After week 45's cargo - booking ended, the pressure increased in the second half of November. The average price was about 2050 dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures). In the first half of November, PA had the largest price cut. Shipping companies mostly announced price increases to 2500 - 3100 dollars in the second half of November, and MSK quoted 2250 dollars [4][17]. Shipping Company Price Announcements - On Monday, the freight rate remained unchanged. MSC and HPL announced price increases for the second half of November to 3000 and 3100 dollars/FEU respectively. MSK's opening price for the second half of November was 2250 (+50) dollars/FEU, lower than the previous market expectation of 2400 - 2500 dollars. MSK also announced a price increase to 3200 dollars for December on the European line, while MSC's price dropped to 2365 dollars [5][18]. - On Thursday, ONE opened at 2600 dollars, and YML opened at 2550 dollars [6][19].