Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, is advancing its plans for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having submitted its application and received acceptance from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, amidst challenges in the snack food industry and a shift in its business model [1][4][14]. Company Development - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels quickly capitalized on e-commerce trends, achieving significant sales growth and market recognition, particularly in the nut category [4][6]. - The company expanded its product range beyond nuts to over 600 SKUs and attempted to establish a multi-channel presence through offline stores [6][9]. - However, the company faced challenges such as reliance on contract manufacturers leading to food safety issues and a high dependency on a single product category, nuts, which accounted for over 60% of revenue [8][9]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels experienced a decline in revenue from 101.73 billion yuan in 2019 to 71.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a nearly 70% drop in market capitalization [9]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.62 billion yuan, a 49.3% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 407.74 million yuan, an 85.51% increase [10][12]. - The company initiated a strategic transformation in 2022, focusing on self-production and a shift to a "D+N" model, which contributed to a "V-shaped rebound" in 2024 [10][12]. Market Challenges - The snack food industry is experiencing intense competition from low-cost brands, forcing Three Squirrels to consider mergers and acquisitions to maintain market share [18][21]. - The company's sales expenses increased significantly, with a 50.92% rise to 1.868 billion yuan, impacting profit margins [20][21]. - The company is also facing challenges in expanding its offline presence, with only 3% of its store expansion plan realized [9][18]. Future Outlook - The IPO aims to raise funds for supply chain upgrades (40%), channel expansion (30%), product innovation (20%), and strategic acquisitions (5%) [14]. - The company has set an ambitious target of reaching 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, which could position it as a leader in the global snack food market if successful [21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a forward-looking investment value in Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group, anticipating an acceleration in profitability for the leading players in the industry during 2025-2026 [5][61]. Core Insights - Mingming Hen Mang has emerged as a leader in the snack retail sector through a strong merger with Zhao Yiming, resulting in a combined entity with 14,394 stores across 28 provinces in China and a GMV of 55.5 billion [3][7]. - The company's rapid growth is attributed to the expansion of franchise stores and increased sales volume, with a projected revenue of 39.34 billion and adjusted net profit of 9.13 billion for 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 203% and 235% respectively from 2022 to 2024 [3][18]. - The Chinese snack and beverage market is valued at 3.7 trillion, with significant growth potential in the down-market and discount channels, where Mingming Hen Mang holds a market share of 1.5% [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang is recognized as a leading food and beverage retailer in China, formed by the merger of "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming" in November 2023, with a focus on operational efficiency and brand integration [3][7]. Industry Trends - The report highlights the ongoing penetration of the discount model in the snack market, with a fragmented retail landscape where the top five players hold only 6% market share [4][11]. Performance Metrics - Revenue and profit growth are driven by the rapid expansion of franchise stores, with a significant increase in store count from 1,902 in 2022 to 14,394 in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 175% [28][29]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve, with a stable gross margin of 7.6% and an adjusted net profit margin of 2.3% for 2024 [22][21]. Future Outlook - Key future drivers include operational efficiency improvements, upgrades in discount supermarket formats, and steady expansion into Southeast Asia, with initial steps taken in Vietnam [42][52]. - The report anticipates that the domestic discount sector has room for growth, aiming to match the overseas penetration rates of over 15% [5][61].

Group 1: Store Performance and Growth - The company has signed over 15,000 stores as of the end of Q1 2025, with the "Good Idea" brand exceeding 10,000 stores [5][6] - The company aims to maintain stable growth in single-store performance, influenced by brand effect and local consumer demand [2][3] - The company plans to continue healthy growth of its store network, balancing quality and quantity [6] Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - Revenue has increased from several hundred million to 30 billion in the past two years [3] - The net profit margin for the bulk snack business is projected to be 2.7% in 2024, with strategies to enhance profitability through supply chain collaboration and logistics management [5][6] - The company is focused on optimizing product structure and extending categories to improve profitability [6] Group 3: Food Safety and Quality Control - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system for product quality management, emphasizing food safety as a critical issue [3] - There is a mechanism in place for reporting and responding to food safety emergencies [3] Group 4: Future Plans and Market Position - The company is exploring various business plans, including potential acquisitions and market expansions, with details to be disclosed in future announcements [5][6] - The company is leveraging digital platforms like Douyin for marketing while maintaining a core focus on offline store operations [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124%, and a net profit of 215 million yuan, significantly up from 6 million yuan in the same period last year. The snack wholesale business generated 10.69 billion yuan in revenue, and the net profit, excluding stock payment expenses, was 412 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.85%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][2] - The company is positioned as the purest player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the snack wholesale market. The Q1 net profit margin exceeded expectations, and there is potential for performance growth to surpass forecasts [1][2] - The gross profit margin for the snack wholesale business continued to improve, reaching 11% in Q1 2025, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased to 3.3% and the management expense ratio to 2.5%. With the expansion of store categories, there is still room for improvement in gross profit margins [1][3] Financial Summary - The company’s Q1 2025 sales cash receipts were 11.971 billion yuan, up 122%, with inventory at 1.453 billion yuan, an increase of 110%, resulting in an inventory turnover period of 17 days. The company has established 50 warehousing centers nationwide, ensuring rapid delivery [3] - The company has 3 billion yuan in cash, a 76% increase, and operating net cash flow of 714 million yuan, up 159%. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 17.74%, with a debt ratio of 72.74% [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 936 million yuan, 1.292 billion yuan, and 1.602 billion yuan, with growth rates of 219%, 38%, and 24% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" stores in Jiangsu, focusing on a multi-category discount retail model that combines snacks, fresh fruits, and baked goods, aiming to cater to the upgrading consumption in lower-tier markets [1][2][4] - The store's product mix includes a significant focus on high-quality items, with a clear emphasis on customer service, such as offering free fruit cutting and washing services, indicating a shift from merely price-based competition to quality and service enhancement [2][11][15] - The report suggests that the head of the snack retail system is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with the potential for further differentiation in store types and a robust supply chain to support this growth [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its store types and product categories, with plans for rapid franchise growth [1][10] - The store has opened six locations in Jiangsu, focusing on community-centric locations with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][13] 2. Product and Service Quality - The store's product categories have expanded to include fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a variety of dairy and beverage products, while maintaining a selective SKU approach [2][15] - The overall product quality is high, with pre-packaged fruits and well-known brand household products, enhancing customer loyalty through superior service [15][20] 3. Store Layout and Pricing Strategy - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, with a focus on larger single product displays [20] - Pricing remains competitive, with discounts on various categories compared to traditional supermarkets and online platforms, maintaining a value proposition for consumers [21][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the snack retail sector, with established players poised to leverage their supply chain advantages and expand into new product categories [4][26] - The ongoing franchise model and the introduction of new store types are expected to enhance market coverage and operational efficiency [4][26]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of retail through the expansion of multi-category discount formats, particularly focusing on the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" in Jiangsu, which combines various store types and aims for rapid franchise expansion [1][4][10] - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" has successfully opened six stores in Jiangsu, emphasizing a community-centric approach with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][24] - The product mix includes fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a selection of daily necessities, positioning the store more as a food supermarket rather than a simple discount retailer [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its franchise model with multiple store types, aiming to adapt to various market needs and consumer preferences [1][10] - The company has introduced a diverse range of products, including fresh produce and baked goods, while maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness and quality [2][11] 2. Store Layout and Customer Experience - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, enhancing the shopping experience and encouraging cross-selling among different product categories [3][20] - The stores feature a significant display area for selected SKUs, which contrasts with the dense layout of traditional supermarkets, thereby improving visibility and accessibility [20] 3. Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy continues to emphasize value, with many products priced significantly lower than competitors like Hema and traditional supermarkets, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [21][23] - The report provides specific pricing comparisons, showing that many items are offered at discounts ranging from 50% to 80% compared to other retailers [23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the industry is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with leading companies like Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang poised to capitalize on their established supply chains and operational efficiencies [4][26] - The potential for further market penetration and the introduction of additional store formats is highlighted as a key growth driver for the industry [4][26]

作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 过去几年间，零食行业经历了一次巨大调整。 上市之初接连几个涨停板的三只松鼠，如今股价已跌去 60%；来伊份在经历上市之初的高光之后，一路震荡下行，市值腰斩。 曾几何时狂飙猛涨的零食巨头们，都免不了高开低走的命运，与此同时，量贩零食正悄然起飞。 自去年 7月底以来，量贩零食连锁品牌"好想来"的母公司——万辰集团，股价已上涨6倍，是近9个月来，沪深上市公司中涨幅最高的公司。 | | | 万辰集团股价近9月涨6倍，领涨沪深两市 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 記始交易日期] 2024-7-24 [截止交易日期] 最新收盘目 [車位] ％↓ | | | 1 | 300972.SZ | 万辰集团 | | 624.6288 | | 2 | 300100.SZ | 双林股份 | | 560.9858 | | 3 | 300718.SZ | 长盛轴承 | | 517.8868 | | ব | 688068.SH | 热景生物- | 股大数据 | 45 ...

Core Viewpoint - The snack industry has undergone significant adjustments in recent years, with traditional giants facing declines while new players like Wanchen Group are rapidly rising [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wanchen Group's stock price has surged sixfold since July 2022, making it the top performer among listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [4][5]. - Wanchen Group's market capitalization has surpassed 20 billion, overtaking established players like Three Squirrels to become the industry leader [7]. - The snack industry is experiencing a stark contrast, with traditional giants like Three Squirrels and Laiyifen struggling, while Wanchen Group has reported a revenue increase of 247.9% to 32.33 billion in 2024 [12][11]. Group 2: Business Model and Expansion - Wanchen Group has transitioned from a mushroom cultivation business to a major player in the bulk snack sector, launching its brand "Lvxiaochan" in August 2022 [14][15]. - The company has aggressively acquired multiple snack brands, consolidating them under the "Haoxianglai" brand to streamline operations and expand its market presence [20]. - By 2024, Wanchen Group's store count reached 14,196, nearly doubling from the previous year, with plans to exceed 15,000 stores by March 2024 [20][21]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Wanchen Group's revenue from bulk snacks accounted for 98.33% of its total revenue in 2024, highlighting its focus on this segment [19]. - Despite significant revenue growth, Wanchen Group's gross margin was only 10.76%, well below the industry average of 20.35% [28]. - The company reported a net profit of 294 million in 2024, recovering from a loss of 82.93 million the previous year [12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The bulk snack market is characterized by intense competition, with brands engaging in price wars to attract cost-sensitive consumers [37][42]. - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top two brands controlling 70% of the market share by late 2024 [48]. - Wanchen Group and its competitor Mingming Hen Mang are leading the market, but both face challenges with low profit margins, hovering around 2% [52]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bulk snack industry is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating the number of stores will reach 45,000 by 2025 and the market size will hit 123.9 billion [33]. - Companies are exploring new formats, such as discount supermarkets, to adapt to changing consumer preferences and enhance profitability [60][61]. - Wanchen Group's valuation has reached 84.95 times earnings, significantly higher than industry averages, raising concerns about sustainability amid increasing competition [65].