智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予鸣鸣很忙(01768)"增持"评级。看好公司作为 量贩零食头部公司的增长潜力，未来几年公司盈利弹性有望逐步释放。预计2025/2026/2027年，公司收 入分别为634.8/816.8/965.7亿元，同比增速分别为61.3%、28.7%、18.2%;归母净利润分别为 23.1/30.4/40.0亿元，同比增速分别为177.5%、31.6%、31.3%。预计鸣鸣很忙2026E的PE倍数为25.3。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 公司的核心竞争力体现为四道环环相扣、彼此强化的竞争壁垒 1)强势门店网络：依托成熟加盟体系，公司已构筑起兼具广度与深度的全国性门店网络。截至2025年11 月30日，公司门店总数达21041家;截至2025年9月30日，门店覆盖全国28省、1341个乡镇，位于县城乡 镇的门店比例达59%;截至2024年12月31日，公司门店在中国所有县城中覆盖率约66%。 2)供应链壁垒：公司通过"直连厂商"的扁平化采购和高效的仓配物流网络(截至2025年11月30日共55个 数智化仓配中心)，实现了对供应链成本与运营效率的极致控制，2025年前三季度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities initiates coverage on Mingming Hen Mang (01768) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's growth potential as a leading snack retailer, with expected earnings elasticity to be gradually released in the coming years [1] Group 1: Competitive Advantages - Strong Store Network: The company has established a comprehensive national store network through a mature franchise system, with a total of 21,041 stores expected by November 30, 2025, covering 28 provinces and 1,341 towns, with 59% of stores located in county towns [1] - Supply Chain Barrier: The company has achieved extreme control over supply chain costs and operational efficiency through a flat procurement model and an efficient logistics network, with inventory turnover days as low as 13.4 days in the first three quarters of 2025, and product prices approximately 25% lower than traditional supermarkets [2] - Digitalization Barrier: The company integrates digital technology throughout the supply chain, managing over 20,000 stores with the largest digital team in China's snack retail sector, enhancing various core processes [2] - Product Matrix Barrier: The company has built a dynamic product matrix with a rich variety of high-quality products, responding quickly to market demands, with over 2,500 quality manufacturers and 3,997 SKUs in stock as of September 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - Market Expansion: The company sees potential for store density increase in regions like Northwest China, accelerating supply chain layout through a "warehouse-first, store-later" strategy [2] - Product Structure Optimization: The company is optimizing its product matrix to improve profitability, supported by vast user data for accurate product forecasting, with a market-validated potential for customized hit products [2] - New Business Exploration: The company is actively exploring a new business model centered around "snacks +", promoting "Zhao Yiming's Money-Saving Supermarket," which combines snacks with essential goods, enhancing shopping choices and profitability [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - Rapid Revenue Growth: From 2022 to 2024, the company achieved a compound annual growth rate of 203% in revenue, with 2025's first three quarters showing revenue of 46.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.2%, and adjusted net profit rising by 240.9% [3] - Franchise Revenue Dominance: Franchise store revenue accounted for 98.9% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on expanding the store network and improving supply chain efficiency [3] - Excellent Supply Chain Management: The company maintains a cash cycle of only 4.3 days and accounts payable turnover days of 9.6 days, significantly lower than traditional retailers, establishing a win-win relationship with suppliers [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, single-store revenue in 40 stores fell by approximately 5% YoY, but gross profit margin increased YoY[2] - During the Chinese New Year, single-store revenue grew nearly 20% YoY, particularly in towns and rural markets, with over 65% of consumers being children and students aged 6-18[2] - The decline in single-store revenue slowed quarter by quarter in 2025, turning positive by Q4 due to factors like the exit of local brands and adjustments in product structure[2] Group 2: Brand Expansion and Operations - Leading snack brands plan to add 6,000 and 10,000 new stores in 2026, with a conservative estimate of at least 5,000 new stores each[9] - The store closure rates for the two leading brands were both below 5%, indicating stable operations[9] - Haoxianglai opened nearly 1,000 stores in January 2026 alone, with expansion expected to accelerate after March[9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Penny-saving supermarkets have a gross profit margin higher than bulk snack stores, with initial investments ranging from Rmb 0.8 to 1.5 million depending on the city tier[10] - Convenience stores launched by Yummy Snack have higher gross and net profit margins than both penny-saving supermarkets and bulk snack businesses[11] - The product structure in penny-saving supermarkets includes 65% snacks, with higher margins on daily necessities and fresh foods[10] Group 4: Product Strategy - Increasing the proportion of private label and own-brand products can improve gross margin levels, with own-brand products having the highest margins[12] - Both leading companies have private label product ratios above 30%, but own-brand product ratios remain below 5%[12] - Plans are in place to increase the proportion of own-brand products to enhance gross margins and benefit franchisees[12]

Core Insights - The rise of discount snack stores, represented by brands like "Hao Xiang Lai" and "Zhao Yi Ming," is becoming a new choice for young consumers during the Chinese New Year, offering more affordable prices and a concentrated product range compared to traditional supermarkets [1][3] - The discount snack store model relies on direct sourcing from manufacturers and streamlined supply chains, allowing for lower prices and a combination of well-known brands for traffic and private label products for profit [3][4] - The infrastructure improvements in county-level markets, including cold chain logistics and digital management systems, have enabled the rapid expansion of discount snack stores [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the discount snack industry is characterized by two dominant players: Wanchen Group with brands "Hao Xiang Lai" and "Lao Po Da Ren," and "Ming Ming Hen Mang" with brands "Liang Shi Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming" [1] - The shift in consumer behavior among young people reflects a desire for control over their purchasing decisions, moving away from the fixed specifications and prices set by manufacturers in traditional supermarkets [4] - The current growth of discount snack stores may face challenges, including quality control risks associated with private label products and the sustainability of price wars driving expansion [4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for the economy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth [5][11] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards promoting stable economic growth as a key consideration for monetary policy, indicating that a weakening economic fundamental may trigger further monetary easing [5] - The report discusses the impact of "deposit outflow" on liquidity, noting that while it affects the structure of bank liabilities, it does not significantly alter the overall liquidity situation in the financial system [5] Group 2: Price Trends - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate fell to 0.2%, influenced by seasonal factors, while the core CPI showed improvement, reaching its highest level in six months [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking four consecutive months of growth [3] - The report anticipates a rebound in CPI readings for February, with an expected annual average around 0.7%, while core CPI is projected to remain strong, driven by factors such as gold prices and consumer services [3] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The average interest rate for new loans in Q4 2025 was reported at 3.15%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating a continued downward trend in overall interest rates [8][11] - The report suggests that the banking sector will experience a significant repricing of deposits in 2026, which is expected to optimize funding costs and support a narrowing of interest margins [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support for key sectors to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on maintaining a stable lending environment [11] Group 4: Industry Performance - The report identifies the top-performing industries in January, with the oil and petrochemical sector leading at 17.3%, followed by construction materials at 14.5% and basic chemicals at 7.7% [1] - Conversely, the report notes the underperforming sectors, including defense and military, which saw a decline of 12.7% in January, and the computer sector, which fell by 8.2% [1]

Group 1 - The store involved in the incident with two middle school girls issued an apology and stated it would implement thorough reforms following the wrongful detention of the girls, who were suspected of shoplifting [1][5] - The incident occurred on February 2, when the girls were detained for 20-30 minutes after the store received a video alert from headquarters, leading to a confrontation with the girls' parents and police involvement [7] Group 2 - Meituan announced a $717 million acquisition of Dingdong Fresh, with the deal allowing Dingdong to withdraw up to $280 million from its group while ensuring a minimum net cash of $150 million [7] - Dingdong's founder emphasized that the company's core competitive advantages would remain intact post-merger, and the business and team would continue to operate stably [8] Group 3 - Xiaomi announced a reduction in the safety mileage threshold for its assisted driving feature from 1,000 km to 300 km to help users gradually familiarize themselves with the technology [11] - Tencent Games released a notification limiting gameplay for minors during the winter vacation period, allowing only 15 hours of playtime over 29 days [12] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission initiated an investigation into the actual controller of Beiliqingsong, Ma Xuejun, for suspected market manipulation, although it is stated that this will not significantly impact the company's operations [15] - Sony raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 1.54 trillion yen, up from a previous estimate of 1.43 trillion yen, following a strong performance in the third quarter [24] Group 5 - Volvo reported fourth-quarter revenue of 94.4 billion Swedish Krona, down from 112.1 billion Swedish Krona year-on-year, with operating profit also declining [25] - NIO projected an adjusted operating profit of between 700 million to 1.2 billion RMB for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its first quarter of adjusted operating profit [26]

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving two middle school girls being wrongfully accused of theft at a snack store highlights serious concerns regarding customer treatment and store policies, particularly towards minors [3][4][11]. Group 1: Incident Details - On February 2, around 1 PM, two girls were accused of stealing after leaving the "好想来" snack store, based on a monitoring video alert received by the store [3][10]. - The girls were held in the store for approximately 20 to 30 minutes without being allowed to contact their parents, which caused significant distress [3][10]. - The store staff claimed it was a misunderstanding and offered an apology, but refused to provide video evidence of the incident when requested by the parents [10][11]. Group 2: Parental Response and Police Involvement - The mother of one of the girls expressed her outrage at the store's handling of the situation, emphasizing that the girls, being only 14 years old, should not have been detained without parental contact [4][11]. - The store called the police, who confirmed that the girls had not stolen anything, indicating a lack of proper protocol in handling such accusations [4][12]. - The police were involved after the store reported the incident, and they confirmed that the girls were innocent, further complicating the store's response to the situation [12]. Group 3: Emotional Impact - The emotional toll on the girls was significant, with one girl expressing feelings of shame and distress, fearing judgment from peers [8]. - The incident has raised questions about the treatment of minors in retail environments and the responsibilities of store employees in such situations [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and misconceptions of expanding China's snack retail model into Southeast Asia, emphasizing that the unique conditions that allowed for the success of this model in China do not exist in Southeast Asia, leading to potential failures if the model is blindly replicated [1]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - The core formula for China's snack retail (hard discount) is based on extreme low prices achieved through supply chain overflow, low fulfillment costs, and high turnover efficiency [3]. - The success of this model in China relies on a surplus of mature production capacity, which is absent in Southeast Asia [7]. - Southeast Asia's food industry is dominated by large corporations, making it difficult for new entrants to negotiate low prices or establish a competitive edge [10]. Group 2: Cost and Logistics Challenges - Importing products from China to Southeast Asia incurs high logistics and tariff costs, which can increase procurement costs by 30%-50% [11]. - The fragmented geography of Southeast Asia, with numerous islands, leads to high fulfillment costs and slow inventory turnover, making it difficult to maintain profitability [29]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Differences - Southeast Asian consumers prefer small packaging and low prices due to their financial constraints, which contrasts with the bulk purchasing behavior seen in China [20][21]. - The low average transaction value in Southeast Asia can hinder the ability of snack retail stores to cover operational costs, as the model relies on high turnover and sales volume [22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Entry Barriers - The requirement for Halal certification in Indonesia and Malaysia presents significant barriers to entry for foreign snack retailers, complicating the process of introducing new products [30][32]. - The lengthy certification process can hinder the ability to quickly adapt to market trends, reducing the attractiveness of stores to consumers [36]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on brand expansion rather than channel expansion, leveraging existing local distribution networks to introduce high-quality products [40]. - Local manufacturing should be prioritized to create products that cater to local tastes and price points, utilizing local resources and production techniques [41]. - Companies should be cautious of drawing parallels between different business models, as the operational dynamics of snack retail differ significantly from those of other sectors like beverage retail [43].

Group 1 - The incident involved two girls being accused of shoplifting at a snack store in Liyuan County, Shaanxi Province, leading to emotional distress for the children and their parents [2][4] - The store staff detained the girls for 20-30 minutes without allowing them to contact their parents, which raised concerns about the treatment of minors in such situations [5][6] - The police confirmed that the girls did not steal anything, highlighting the need for proper handling of such accusations and the importance of parental involvement [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities reported that Three Squirrels is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million to 175 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 57.1% to 66.9% [1] - The fourth quarter net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between -26 million to 14 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 78.5% to 138.6%, indicating a phase of profit pressure [1] Company Strategy - The company, as a comprehensive snack retailer, has a deep insight into consumer demand and is driving growth through differentiated new products [1] - It maintains an advantage in the online market and plans to accelerate the distribution network layout in 2025, exploring multi-category private label supply systems in lifestyle stores and tapping into incremental opportunities in instant retail [1] - Based on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, the company is upgrading towards high-end, quality, and differentiated products while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]