Market Overview - The U.S. equity markets are experiencing a mixed performance with a divergence between growth-oriented technology shares and defensive sectors as traders return from the Presidents Day holiday [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is up approximately 28 points, or 0.1%, near the 49,500 level, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is down about 0.2% at 22,546 [2] - The S&P 500 (SPX) remains virtually unchanged, oscillating around its 100-day moving average of 6,836 [2] Sector Performance - The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is under pressure as investors de-risk from high-multiple software names, while defensive and cyclical sectors are providing support [3] - The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) has gained 1.5%, indicating strong performance in defensive sectors, while Financials are also outperforming due to stabilizing comments from Federal Reserve officials [3] Technology Sector Developments - Concerns about "AI disruption" are prevalent, with fears of a "SaaS-pocalypse" affecting software giants; Salesforce (CRM) fell 2.6%, Intuit (INTU) declined 5%, and Oracle (ORCL) dropped 4% [4] - Nvidia (NVDA) remains a focal point in the semiconductor space, trading up 1.3% ahead of its critical earnings report next week, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron (MU) are down 2% and 2.6%, respectively [5] Consumer Sector Insights - General Mills (GIS) stock plunged 6.9% after cutting its full-year profit forecast due to "uneasy" customers and a slowdown in household spending [6] - Medtronic (MDT) slipped 2.5% despite beating quarterly estimates, as management warned of potential headwinds from upcoming tariff implementations [6] Mergers and Acquisitions - Danaher (DHR) shares dropped 6% following the announcement of a nearly $10 billion acquisition of Masimo (MASI), whose shares surged 35% on the news [7] - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) rose 2.9% amid reports of seeking a "best and final" buyout offer from Paramount (PARA) [7] Economic Data and Upcoming Events - January retail sales were flat, indicating a cautious outlook from major retailers, while the Empire State Manufacturing Index for February reached +7.1, slightly missing expectations but remaining in expansionary territory [8] - Upcoming earnings reports from Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Devon Energy (DVN) are anticipated to provide insights into cybersecurity spending and energy demand [9] - The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its recent policy meeting, which may offer clues regarding future rate cuts following a moderation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.4% [9]

Economic Indicators - December capital goods new orders (nondefense ex-aircraft and parts) are expected to increase by +0.4% month-over-month, indicating potential growth in capital spending [1] - January manufacturing production is anticipated to rise by +0.4% month-over-month [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are projected to decline by -2,000 to 225,000 [1] - The December trade deficit is expected to widen to -$86.0 billion [1] - Q4 GDP is expected to expand by +3.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized [1] - The December core PCE price index is expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year [1] Corporate Earnings - Nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, with 76% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is projected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6% [7] Stock Market Movements - Major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones, reversed earlier losses to trade higher, with the S&P 500 Index up +0.29%, Dow Jones up +0.18%, and Nasdaq 100 Index up +0.38% [6] - Software stocks are experiencing declines amid speculation of AI disruption, with Crowdstrike Holdings down more than -6% and Intuit down more than -5% [12] - Silver and gold mining stocks are falling, with gold prices down more than 3% and silver prices down more than 6% [13] Company-Specific News - Genuine Parts Co is down more than -12% after reporting Q4 net sales of $6.01 billion, weaker than the consensus of $6.06 billion [15] - General Mills is down more than -8% after lowering guidance on its full-year organic net sales forecast [15] - Vulcan Materials is down more than -7% after forecasting full-year adjusted EBITDA below consensus [16] - Danaher is down more than -2% after reports of a nearly $10 billion acquisition deal for Masimo [17] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services is up more than +30% after Hapag-Lloyd AG announced a cash deal to buy the company [18]

Core Viewpoint - Cisco (CSCO) experienced a 9.4% decline in stock price over the past week despite beating earnings expectations, attributed to market fears regarding AI disruption. Analysts maintain a target price of $88.81, indicating a potential upside of 16% from current levels [1]. Financial Performance - Cisco reported earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.02, with revenue of $15.35 billion, reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year increase, although it slightly missed the target of $15.42 billion [1]. - Operating cash flow fell 19% year-over-year to $1.82 billion, raising concerns about financial health [1][2]. Market Sentiment - The stock's decline is linked to a shift in investor valuation of networking and software companies, with fears of a "SaaSpocalypse" where AI could disrupt traditional business models [1]. - Seven senior executives, including the CEO, sold $3.05 million in stock on earnings day, which negatively impacted market perception [1]. Analyst Outlook - Despite the recent selloff, 17 out of 26 analysts maintain a Buy or Strong Buy rating for Cisco, with no Sell ratings. The average target price of $88.81 suggests significant upside potential [1]. - KeyBanc has a Buy rating with a target of $87, while a bullish analyst projects a target of $182 based on AI infrastructure refresh cycles [1]. Growth Catalysts - Cisco secured $2.1 billion in AI infrastructure orders, indicating strong demand from hyperscalers [1]. - A campus networking refresh cycle is underway, with product orders increasing by 18% year-over-year, and the next-generation firewall market is projected to grow at a 12% annual rate through 2031 [1]. Valuation Metrics - Cisco's forward P/E ratio is 18x, significantly lower than its trailing P/E of 28x, suggesting expectations of earnings growth. The PEG ratio stands at 1.3, indicating reasonable valuation relative to its 31% year-over-year earnings growth [1]. - The company offers a 2.2% dividend yield and is engaged in aggressive buybacks, appealing to value-oriented investors [1].

The CNBC app, global market news in one place. Customizable sections and personalized alerts, stocks tracking, interactive charts and market insights, all in your hands. Stay connected, stay informed, download the CNBC app today.Uh, >> a very warm welcome to this Tuesday edition of Squawk Europe European. I'm Steve Sedick with Ben Bulos. Risk Gup will join us as well.Okay, these are your headlines. European equity futures point lower as Wall Street comes back online after the President's Day holiday with th ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is reacting negatively to software firms perceived as losers in the AI boom, with credit markets expected to face similar disruptions soon [1][2] Group 1: AI Disruption Impact - Tens of billions in corporate loans are projected to default over the next year, particularly affecting software and data services firms owned by private equity due to AI threats [1] - UBS analysts have updated their forecasts rapidly in response to accelerated AI disruption expectations from new models by Anthropic and OpenAI [2] - The market has been slow to react to the speed of AI disruption, necessitating a recalibration in credit evaluation methods [3] Group 2: Default Projections - UBS analysts estimate that borrowers of leveraged loans and private credit could see $75 billion to $120 billion in new defaults by the end of this year [4] - Default rates for leveraged loans and private credit are expected to increase by up to 2.5% and 4% respectively by late 2026, with these markets valued at $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion [4]

Group 1 - The recent decline in financial services and software stocks has created bargain opportunities, suggesting a potential for value investing in these sectors [2] - The focus is on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1][2] - The investment group iREIT®+HOYA Capital targets high-yield, dividend growth investment ideas, with portfolios aiming for dividend yields up to 10% [2] Group 2 - The investment research covers various asset classes including REITs, ETFs, closed-end funds, preferreds, and dividend champions [2] - The service emphasizes the importance of a medium- to long-term investment horizon, particularly in defensive stocks [2]

Group 1: Auto Industry Challenges - The American auto industry is facing significant challenges, including competition from China, legacy costs, chip shortages, and regulatory changes, particularly regarding electric vehicles (EVs) and emissions standards [4][5] - General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Stellantis (STLA) have collectively incurred $53 billion in write-offs since late 2025 related to their EV strategies and restructuring efforts [4] - The Trump administration's recent deregulation is expected to eliminate over $1.3 trillion in regulatory costs, which the administration claims will help reduce car prices [4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - While greenhouse gas standards for CO2 will be canceled, federal laws against smog, soot, and nitrogen oxides will remain in effect, along with fuel economy rules governed by the Department of Transportation [5] - A legal battle continues with states like California seeking to maintain stricter regulations than those set by the federal government, complicating the market for automakers [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The current market shows a decline in major indices, with the Dow down 0.4%, S&P down 0.3%, and Nasdaq down 0.4% [7] - Crude oil prices have increased by 0.2% to $62.97, while gold prices have also risen by 0.2% to $4,959.90 [7]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a sell-off, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declining by more than 1% on Thursday [1] - Concerns about AI disruption are affecting various industries, including software, financials, office real estate, and logistics [1] Company Insights - Alphabet's stock increased after announcing a significant upgrade to its Gemini 3 Deep Think reasoning model, which can now tackle modern science and engineering challenges, indicating its leadership in AI development [1] - The company made a small purchase of Alphabet shares and is considering further investments during market weakness [1] Housing Market Data - Existing home sales in January fell by 8.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.91 million, which is 4.4% lower than January 2025 [1] - The January report may dampen expectations for a housing market recovery, but the impact of unusually cold weather is noted as a complicating factor [1] - The downtick in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to around 6.1% in January from 6.19% in December is not expected to significantly influence sales trends [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming earnings reports are expected from several companies, including Coinbase, Arista Networks, and Moderna [1] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to be released on Friday [1]

Group 1 - Wall Street's tech sector experienced a significant decline, erasing over $500 billion in market value across 10 major companies, with both software and legacy hardware firms affected [1] - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) fell more than 3% on Thursday, marking a year-to-date decline of over 20% [2] - Cisco's earnings report was a key catalyst for the broader tech slump, as the company saw an 11% drop in stock price despite reporting earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding the $1.02 consensus, and revenue of $15.35 billion, above estimates of $15.11 billion [2] Group 2 - Cisco's gross margin guidance for the fiscal third quarter was 65.5%-66.5%, which fell short of the 68% consensus, attributed to a heavier hardware mix and rising commodity costs [3] - Cisco's networking revenue grew 21% year over year, with orders accelerating above 20%, indicating strong demand despite margin pressures [3] - Lenovo, a major player in the tech industry, acknowledged the risk of declining PC shipments due to worsening memory shortages, with the CEO stating the company aims to maintain profitability amid these challenges [4]

Core Insights - A new investment trend is emerging on Wall Street, focusing on stocks with significant real-world assets and low obsolescence risk, termed the Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence strategy [2][3] - This strategy has gained traction as investors shift their focus from enterprise software companies to businesses with hard assets, such as refineries and airlines, which are perceived as less likely to be disrupted by AI technologies [2][4] Investment Strategy - The Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence strategy is characterized by a preference for companies that rely on physical goods, infrastructure, or services, making them less vulnerable to technological disruption [4] - Examples of companies fitting this strategy include energy giants like Exxon, retailers such as Walmart, fast-food chains like McDonald's and Starbucks, and industrial firms like Caterpillar [4] Market Performance - The most popular energy fund, XLE, has increased by 23% year to date, while materials and consumer staples funds, XLB and XLP, have risen by 18% and 14% respectively [5] - In contrast, the iShare's Expanded Tech-Software Sector (IGV) has experienced a decline of 22% in value this year, highlighting the shift in investor sentiment [5]