CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the robotaxi race heating up. ...

Group 1 - Ark Invest has set a price target of $2,600 for Tesla by 2029, based on a Monte Carlo simulation that considers various market scenarios [2][5] - The simulation indicates a 25% chance that Tesla's stock price could be $2,000 or less, and a 25% chance it could exceed $3,100, with the expected value being $2,600 [2][4] - Tesla's current stock price is significantly below previous bearish forecasts, indicating the challenges in predicting long-term stock values for speculative growth stocks like Tesla [3][4] Group 2 - The success of Tesla's stock price is highly dependent on the success of its robotaxi service, which is projected to account for 88% of its enterprise value by 2029 [7][10] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and robotaxi concept remain unproven, with regulatory and safety challenges yet to be addressed [9][11] - If Tesla successfully develops its robotaxi technology, there could be significant upside potential for the stock, as the company has the necessary resources and market position to succeed [13]

Group 1: Cheniere Energy and LNG Industry - The U.S. has become the largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, exporting 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, surpassing Qatar and Australia [2] - Cheniere Energy exported 2.33 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) in 2024, equating to 6.37 Bcf/d, and has a total production capacity of 45 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) across its terminals [3] - The current administration supports LNG growth, and Cheniere's CEO believes there is a strategic imperative to secure permits for future capacity expansion to over 90 mtpa [5] Group 2: GE Aerospace and Aerospace Industry - GE Aerospace is a market leader in commercial aerospace and defense engines, with its joint venture CFM International producing the LEAP engine, which powers the Boeing 737 MAX and is one of two options for the Airbus A320neo family [7] - GE's GE9X engine is the sole option for the Boeing 777X, and its GEnx engine dominates orders for the Boeing 787, indicating strong market presence [8] - The next generation of engines, RISE, is expected to achieve a 20% improvement in fuel efficiency over the LEAP, potentially ensuring GE's leadership in commercial aerospace engines for decades [9] Group 3: Tesla and Electric Vehicle Industry - Tesla's Model Y is the best-selling car globally and is set to improve sales with refreshed production lines in 2025 [10] - Upcoming catalysts for Tesla include the launch of its robotaxi in June 2025 and the mass production of the Cybercab in 2026, alongside lower-cost models [11] - Tesla has significantly reduced its cost of goods per vehicle, falling below $35,000 by the end of 2024, which enhances profit margins and competitiveness in the EV market [12][13] - CEO Elon Musk has positioned Tesla as a leader in the SUV market, and the company's advancements in EVs and robotaxis suggest a strong future in the industry [15]

Core Viewpoint - Federal safety investigators are scrutinizing Tesla's upcoming robotaxi service and its "Full Self-Driving (Supervised)" software, particularly its performance in low-visibility conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is seeking additional information from Tesla to understand how the company plans to evaluate its vehicles and driving automation technologies for public road use [2]. - NHTSA's investigation into Tesla's FSD software was initiated after four reported crashes in low-visibility situations, highlighting concerns about the software's ability to handle such conditions [4][5]. - The agency has sent Tesla a series of questions to determine if the automated driving system in the planned robotaxis is similar to the FSD Supervised product, including inquiries about fleet size and vehicle models [7]. Group 2: Robotaxi Service Plans - Tesla plans to launch a paid ride-hailing robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, using its own fleet vehicles starting in June [3]. - The company has already begun a supervised ride-hailing service for employees in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, completing over 1,500 trips and 15,000 miles of driving [4]. - CEO Elon Musk indicated that the robotaxis will utilize a yet-to-be-released "unsupervised" version of the Full Self-Driving software [5]. Group 3: Safety Concerns - Investigators are particularly focused on whether the FSD software can effectively detect and respond to reduced roadway visibility conditions, such as sun glare, fog, and airborne dust [5][8]. - The NHTSA has requested Tesla to describe its plans to ensure the safety of robotaxi operations in various low-visibility conditions, including rain and snow [8].

Group 1 - Tesla reported a weak first quarter but saw a significant stock increase of 5.7% today, resulting in a nearly 30% return since the quarterly results were announced on April 22 [1] - The optimism surrounding Tesla's fully autonomous driving technology launch in June and CEO Elon Musk's increased focus on the company contributed to investor confidence [2] - Despite a decline in sales in Europe, with year-over-year April sales dropping by 50% or more in several countries, the stock price surged due to positive sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade talks [3][5] Group 2 - China is a crucial market for Tesla, with its Shanghai plant being the largest and potentially most profitable [4] - The thawing relations between the U.S. and China are seen as beneficial for Tesla, although the resolution of trade disagreements may still be distant [5]

Core Business Challenges - Tesla's core electric vehicle (EV) business is facing pressure due to weakening demand and increased competition, impacting sales [1] - CEO Elon Musk's political involvement is negatively affecting Tesla's brand image [1] - The company is focusing on AI and robotaxi developments as long-term growth drivers, although these initiatives are still in early stages [1] Energy and Storage Business Growth - Tesla's energy and storage business is thriving, driven by strong demand for Megapack and Powerwall products, which are lithium-ion battery energy storage solutions [2] - Energy storage deployments have surged at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 180% over the past three years, with a 113% year-over-year increase in 2024 [3] - In Q1 2025, Tesla deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage, marking a 156% year-over-year increase, with expectations for a further 50% increase in 2025 [3] Financial Performance - The Energy Generation and Storage division has the highest gross margins among all Tesla segments, achieving 26% in 2024 due to low material and operating costs [4] - This high-margin unit is considered a pillar of strength for Tesla amid various challenges [4] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in the energy and storage sector include Fluence Energy and Enphase Energy [5] - Fluence is a leader in utility-scale energy storage, offering advanced battery systems and AI-driven software, with plans to launch a new platform in late 2025 [6] - Enphase focuses on home energy solutions, competing closely with Tesla's Powerwall by providing integrated solar-plus-storage solutions [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Tesla shares have declined approximately 42% year to date, compared to a 37.5% decline in the industry [8] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.82, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla's earnings has been trending downward over the past 30 days [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced significant volatility, with shares falling approximately 40% from their peak in December, primarily due to challenges in sales growth despite being a profitable electric vehicle manufacturer [2][5]. Company Performance - Tesla is among the top 10 most profitable car manufacturers globally, with a net income comparable to major players like Honda, General Motors, and Ford [3]. - In the last fiscal year, Tesla reported total sales of $97.69 billion, with over $77 billion derived from electric vehicle sales [4]. - The company has struggled with sales growth, achieving sub-4% growth in four of the last five quarters [5]. Market Challenges - Tesla's sales in Europe have declined sharply, with a 45% drop in sales despite a 37% year-over-year increase in overall EV sales across the continent [6]. - Public sentiment towards Elon Musk has worsened, with 73% of Germans deeming his political involvement unacceptable, which may be impacting Tesla's brand perception [7]. - Increased competition from established automakers and new entrants like BYD Co. is posing additional challenges, as BYD has surpassed Tesla in U.K. sales for the first time [7]. Future Prospects - Tesla is exploring various future opportunities, including a potential global "robotaxi" service and advancements in autonomous driving technology [8]. - The company's current valuation reflects significant market expectations for future transformations, despite the majority of its revenue still coming from car sales [9]. Valuation Concerns - There are concerns regarding Tesla's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 142, which is considered excessive for a car manufacturer, especially when compared to Nvidia's P/E of 52 [10]. - The current stock price may be overly reliant on future promises rather than present performance, leading to skepticism about its status as a "millionaire-maker" [11].