出口吞吐维持韧性，价格走势分化 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收视角 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 8 月第三周，外需方面，吞吐量同比维持高位，但运价整体偏弱运行，且跌幅有所走阔。地产方面，新房成交基本持 平，二手房热度有所回落，两者同比延续负增，销售中枢不及前期，房价有待企稳，土地溢价率有所上行。生产端来 看，工业方面，货运量表现较好，煤炭价格继续上涨，生产维持韧性分化，焦化、地炼略有上行，纺 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.5 times, positioned at the historical 86th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.5 times, at the historical 60th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 36.2 times, at the historical 23rd percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 147.1 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][3] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, and Light Industry Manufacturing [2][3] - The Electronic industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][3] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the upstream polysilicon futures price increased by 4.1%, while downstream battery and silicon photovoltaic module prices showed weak price increases [2][3] - In the battery sector, lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 15.9% and lithium hydroxide by 13.1% [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.49% in Q2 2025, down by 2.2 basis points from Q1 [2][3] - The net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 1.3 basis points from Q1 [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The national commodity housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a gradual end to the previous backlog of demand [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.4%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.8% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to July 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with July's growth rate of 3.7% falling short of expectations [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 6.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, from January to July 2025 [2][3] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Technology TMT - The domestic integrated circuit output grew by 10.4% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.3%, closing at $66.13 per barrel [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%, closing at 698 yuan per ton [2][3]

Group 1: Autonomous Driving and AI in Pharmaceuticals - LoBo Fast Run has partnered with Lyft to provide autonomous driving services in Europe, with plans to deploy its sixth-generation autonomous vehicles in Germany and the UK by 2026, expanding to thousands of vehicles across Europe [1] - LoBo Fast Run has deployed over 1,000 autonomous vehicles in 15 cities, achieving over 170 million kilometers of safe driving and serving over 11 million users globally [1] - Crystal Technology has signed a cooperation order with DoveTree worth approximately HKD 47 billion, marking a record in the AI and new drug development sector [2][3] Group 2: Renewable Energy and Storage Solutions - Sungrow Power Supply has secured a new order to provide PowerTitan 2.0 solutions for Galp's energy storage projects in Spain and Portugal, totaling approximately 74MW/147MWh [3] - Galp is constructing five battery energy storage systems (BESS) projects, with four in Portugal totaling 60.5MW/120.4MWh, partially funded by a €100 million EU subsidy [3] Group 3: International Expansion and Retail - Zhuanzhuan Group has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Dubai Airport Free Zone to establish a regional headquarters, aiming to create a cross-border supply chain center for second-hand goods in the Middle East [4] - Lingji has opened three overseas stores and signed contracts for 18 more, expanding its presence in the US, Malaysia, and Cambodia [4] - Meituan's Keeta has launched a founding partner program in the UAE, offering strategic advantages to early restaurant and retail partners [5] Group 4: Technology and Media - Bilibili has launched an AI original voice translation feature to enhance overseas user experience, currently supporting English and aiming to expand to other languages [6][7] - The technology aims to accurately preserve original styles and match voice lengths, addressing challenges in translating specialized terms in gaming and anime [6] Group 5: Manufacturing and Investment - Sungrow Power Supply plans to build a hydrogen electrolyzer factory in Oman to support the country's green energy transition [8] - Crystal Group plans to establish a 1.5 million square meter textile factory in Egypt, leveraging local raw materials to create a high-value supply chain [9] - Tencent has co-led a $65.5 million funding round for Uzbekistan's e-commerce company Uzum, which has over 17 million monthly active users [10][11] - XGIMI Technology is planning to list in Hong Kong to enhance its international brand recognition and competitiveness [12]

Core Insights - The U.S. gig economy is demonstrating strong profitability, with major platforms Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, and Airbnb collectively generating $4.2 billion in free cash flow, exceeding expectations [1][10] Group 1: Company Performance - Uber leads the industry with $2.475 billion in free cash flow, a 44% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $12.7 billion, up 18% [2][3] - DoorDash's revenue grew 25% to $3.28 billion, surpassing expectations, with a total market value of orders reaching $24.2 billion, a 23% increase [6][7] - Airbnb reported a 13% revenue increase to $3.1 billion and a net profit of $642 million, with a new $6 billion stock buyback plan announced [8][9] - Lyft's revenue of $1.59 billion was slightly below expectations, but it achieved a free cash flow of $329 million, indicating a higher profitability level than Uber [4][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The gig economy is experiencing deep expansion, with non-employer businesses growing at an average rate of 2.7% annually from 2012 to 2023, significantly outpacing traditional employer businesses at 1.1% [11][12] - The transportation and warehousing sectors are primary drivers of this growth, with over 200,000 new non-employer businesses added between 2022 and 2023 [11] - Despite some sectors like retail contracting, non-employer businesses contribute approximately $1.8 trillion to GDP, accounting for 6.4% of the U.S. economy [12]

「Going Global 出海周报」 是创业邦推出的出海系列栏目，旨在为出海领域的创业者和投资人精选 出海大事件、海外大公司、投融资消息，本篇为栏目第 294 篇报道。 整理丨薛皓皓 本周（ 2025.07. 28 -2025.0 8 . 03 ）出海大事件包 括： Shein 今年一季度营收超 100 亿美元， 官方称数据不准 ； TikTok 合并核心产品与信任安全团队；宇 树科技王兴兴回应机器人跳舞没用； 小米 AI 眼镜项目负责人： 目标 3 年内年出货量超 5 百万；库克"罕见"召开全员大会，暂言抓住 AI 机遇： 苹果必须这么做，也将会这么做；传奇投资家 Jim Rogers： 已清空所有美国股票。 出海四小龙 Shein 今年一季度营收超 100 亿美元，官方称数据不准 据外媒报道， Shein 在 2025 年第一季度实现了超 100 亿美元的收入和超过 4 亿美元的净利润， 利润率达到约5% 。这一表现得益于美国消费者在新一轮关税生效前集中采购 Shein 的产品，可 谓"抢在税前下单，血赚不亏"。 Shein 对此回应称："该数据不准确"，但并未进一步解释。 长期以来， Shein 一直 ...

Grab (GRAB) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 30, 2025 08:00 PM ET Speaker0Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today. My name is Faith, and I'll be your conference operator for this session. Welcome to Grab's Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Results Call. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I will turn it over to Douglas to start the call.Speaker1Good day, everyone, and welcome to Grab's Second Quarter Earnings Call. I'm Douglas Yu, Director, Investor Rela ...

Core Insights - Jiangsu Province's economic and social development report for the first half of 2025 indicates a significant growth in service revenue, reaching 37.96 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [1] Group 1: Service Revenue Breakdown - The combined service revenue from five monitored sectors—tourism, travel, dining, accommodation, and sports—amounted to 37.96 billion yuan [1] - Among the total service revenue, the share of payments from out-of-province tourists in the travel and dining sectors accounted for 28.8% and 19.7%, respectively [1]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2%, slightly above market consensus, with mixed economic activity data in June [1] - The average GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, leading to an upward adjustment of GDP growth forecasts for 2025/26 to 4.7% and 3.9% respectively [1] Focus Stocks - Didi received a "Buy" rating, with expectations of strong growth in its mobility business and advancements in autonomous driving, projecting a 12-month target price of $7.20 [4] - Anta's retail sales for 2025 are expected to align with forecasts, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year, maintaining a target price of HKD 117 [11] - MakeMy Trip is viewed as an attractive buy opportunity, with expectations of over 20% revenue growth starting in September, and a target price of $123 [12] - JD Health is favored over Alibaba Health due to higher sales growth trends and a target price of HKD 45.80, with a focus on its capital allocation strategy [13] Industry Focus - The market size for China's autonomous taxi sector is projected to reach $14 billion by 2030 and $61 billion by 2035, reflecting a 20% and 31% increase from previous estimates [5] - Improvements in chip supply are expected to positively impact China's cloud computing and data center sectors, with a cautious outlook on capital expenditures for 2025 [8]

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Sales of basic living goods and certain upgraded consumer goods showed strong growth, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture increasing by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [1] - The rapid growth of upgraded consumer goods reflects consumers' pursuit of quality of life and increased purchasing power, supported by the "old-for-new" policy [1] Group 2: Local Life Services - Douyin announced a significant platform subsidy to support chain brand hotels through live streaming and promotional activities, with discounts starting at 60% for hotel bookings [2] - This subsidy strategy is expected to enhance Douyin's market share in the local life service sector, particularly in hotel reservations, by offering competitive prices and services [2] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - JD Technology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Whale Robot Technology to promote the "AI + education robot" industry through product and technology collaboration [3] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths to enhance product competitiveness and accelerate the development of the education robot market [3] - Didi announced a strategic cooperation with Haidilao, enabling mutual membership benefits and exploring new value-added services in the "transportation + dining" scenario [4] - The membership integration is expected to enhance market competitiveness and user engagement for both Didi and Haidilao [4]