线控底盘：解锁高阶智驾，迈入放量周期 20260302 摘要 线控底盘行业正经历从"技术导入"到"放量落地"的关键阶段，预计 市场规模将从百亿级增长至千亿级，渗透率持续提升，主要增长点集中 在线控制动与线控转向。 线控底盘通过电子电气架构升级，实现多系统电控互联与协同，响应速 度显著提升至毫秒级，更适配高阶智驾对系统响应能力、协同控制与安 全冗余的需求。 政策层面，2020 年以来陆续出台政策鼓励线控系统开发，2025 年制动 与转向相关新国标发布，为线控关键部件上车提供明确规范与依据，并 明确 L3 及以上自动驾驶定义。 市场空间方面，预计 2025 年线控底盘相关市场规模约为 400 多亿，到 2030 年有望达到接近 1,200 亿水平，行业处于高速生长期，渗透率持 续提升。 线控制动主要分为 EHB 与 EMB/EMV 两种技术路线，当前主流为 EHB，其中 One Box 方案因集成度高、成本相对较低且能量回收能力 强而占据主导地位，市场集中度较高。 Q&A 为什么在 2026 年这个时点发布线控底盘行业深度报告，核心产业判断是什么？ 2026 年预计将成为智能驾驶显著加速的关键年份，产业端有望从 ...

Q&A 伯特利 20260302 摘要 线控转向行业正处于爆发初期，具备产业趋势性配置价值，自 2025 年 以来，L3 级测试在更多城市快速路展开，行业热度与资本市场关注度同 步提升，预示着未来 3-5 年的产业周期。 全球转向系统市场由博世、捷太格特、采埃孚等外资寡头垄断，占据 70%-80%的份额，产品结构升级带来 ASP 弹性，单车价值从 CEPS 的 1,000 元提升至线控转向的 4,000 元，后轮转向新增 2000 元价值。 伯特利以不超过 22 亿元的估值收购豫北转向 51%股权，交易对价 11.2 亿元，完成后豫北转向纳入伯特利合并报表范围，预计将显著提升伯特 利转向业务的整体规模和市场竞争力。 豫北转向在转向器结构件领域处于国内龙头地位，2021 年销量约 500 万台，国内市占率约 20%，已完成 CEPS、PEPS 产品体系，并攻克 REPS 研发，客户覆盖比亚迪、长安、一汽等国内主机厂及福特、日产 等海外客户。 完成豫北转向并表后，伯特利转向业务收入预计接近 40 亿元，占整体 业务的 30%-40%，业务弹性显现，同时，转向与制动在核心零部件上 存在共通性，预计将带来成本与研发端 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华金证券发布研报称，根据亿欧智库预计，2025年中国乘用车智能底盘市场规模将 达到466亿元，2030年将达到1171亿元，2025-2030CAGR为20.24%，呈现快速渗透态势。2025年，国标 添加制动新规，EMB上车有法可依，量产进程开始加速。多家企业已完成产线建设，规划量产时间集 中在2025年底到2026年上半年。展望2026年，线控底盘迈入产业化关键阶段，目前行业渗透率还较低， 在智驾催化下，线控底盘将加速渗透，市场规模将进一步扩张，相关企业有望受益。 华金证券主要观点如下： 线控底盘是实现高阶智驾的必备技术之一，在智驾加速渗透中放量在即 在线控底盘的五大系统中，线控制动、转向、悬架开发难度高，外资占据主导地位。从市场渗透率看， 线控驱动已经接近标配水平，线控转向、线控悬架渗透率尚处起步阶段，线控制动、线控换挡正处于大 规模商业化前夜。从技术开发难度看，线控驱动、线控换挡技术相对成熟；线控制动、线控转向技术门 槛最高，内外资企业基本处于同一起跑线，国内供应商潜力巨大。 投资建议 2026年线控底盘迈入产业化关键阶段，目前行业渗透率还较低，在智驾催化下，线控底盘将加速渗透， ...

本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 证券研究报告 汽车/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） 线控底盘：解锁高阶智驾，迈入放量周期 智能驾驶专题系列（一） 分析师：黄程保 SAC执业证书编号：S0910525040002 2026年2月27日 u 线控底盘是实现高阶智驾的必备技术之一，在智驾加速渗透中放量在即。线控底盘成为智能电动汽车实现差异化体验与 技术迭代的关键，推动汽车从机械向线控驱动变革，其核心价值在于突破传统机械底盘的性能边界，借助传感器实时感 知、算法动态决策与执行机构精准响应，为高阶智能驾驶提供精准可靠的执行能力。根据亿欧智库预计，2025年中国乘 用车智能底盘市场规模将达到466亿元，2030年将达到1171亿元，2025-2030CAGR为20.24%，呈现快速渗透态势。 u 在线控底盘中，重点关注线控制动/转向。在线控底盘的五大系统中，线控制动、转向、悬架开发难度高，外资占据主导 地位。从市场渗透率看，线控驱动已经接近标配水平，线控转向、线控悬架渗透率尚处起步阶段，线控制动、线控换挡 正处于大规模商业 ...

Summary of Bertli's Conference Call Company Overview - Bertli is a significant player in the Electromechanical Brake (EMB) product market, particularly in areas where traditional giants like Bosch do not hold absolute advantages, indicating potential for substantial market share expansion [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - EMB technology allows for direct mechanical control via electricity, achieving response times as fast as 50 milliseconds, which is superior to mainstream Electronic Hydraulic Brake (EHB) systems. This technology effectively shortens braking distances, enhances safety, and supports advanced autonomous driving features [2][4]. - The Ideal L9 model, priced at approximately 550,000 yuan, is one of the first mass-produced vehicles to utilize Bertli's EMB technology, marking a significant breakthrough for the company in this field [2][4]. - By 2030, EMB is expected to capture 10% of the passenger vehicle market, providing Bertli with considerable market opportunities to offset limitations in the domestic market share of its One Box products [2][5]. - Bertli has made progress in lightweight solutions in collaboration with overseas clients, with limited impact from rising aluminum prices. The company has also achieved system designations in online control steering and air suspension, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2][5]. - Despite high penetration rates for products like One Box and EPP, the domestic production rate is only 40%, indicating ample room for domestic substitution and growth potential for Bertli [2][5]. Financial Outlook - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bertli's performance is projected to approach 25% over the next two years. The current valuation is approximately 20 times earnings (including convertible bonds), which is considered low, maintaining a positive outlook for the company [3][5]. - Risks to this outlook include potential economic growth falling short of expectations and significant increases in raw material prices [3][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a mandatory national standard for automotive steering systems, which will enhance safety and promote the development of new technologies like steer-by-wire [2][5] - The new standard, effective from July 1, clarifies technical requirements and testing methods for automotive steering systems, particularly for steer-by-wire technology, which offers significant advantages in response speed and control precision [2][5] - NIO, as one of the leaders in the development of this standard, has already applied steer-by-wire technology in its ET9 model, indicating a trend towards broader adoption among other brands [5] Group 2 - The current number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 43.97 million, with 30.22 million being pure electric vehicles, accounting for 68.74% of the total new energy vehicle ownership [6] - The data indicates that the market share of new energy vehicles is approaching parity with traditional fuel vehicles, with pure electric vehicles becoming mainstream, accelerating the trend towards electrification [6][7] - By 2025, the total number of motor vehicles in China is projected to reach 469 million, with nearly half of the population holding a driver's license, reflecting the country's commitment to becoming a major automotive power [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The development of intelligent chassis technologies, such as fully active suspension and steer-by-wire systems, is becoming a key indicator of vehicle intelligence levels. Zhejiang Shibao is advancing its steer-by-wire technology, aiming for mass production by the second half of 2026, which aligns with the introduction of L3 autonomous driving standards [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhejiang Shibao's stock price reacted positively to the news, achieving four consecutive trading limits from December 16, with a closing price of 21.22 yuan per share by December 25, marking five limit-up closures in eight trading days [1]. - In the 2024 annual report, Zhejiang Shibao reported a revenue of 2.693 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, up 93.15% year-on-year. Revenue from steering systems and components accounted for 94.18% of total revenue [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The automotive steering system industry has high entry barriers, requiring manufacturers to pass multiple standards and trials before becoming qualified suppliers for automakers. Zhejiang Shibao has established close relationships with major automakers, with its top five customers, including Chery, Geely, NIO, and Li Auto, contributing 1.778 billion yuan, or 66.01% of total sales [2]. - The recent favorable developments in L3 autonomous driving and the push for commercialization have attracted institutional funds to related concept stocks, leading to a strong market performance for Zhejiang Shibao, characterized by an "8 days 5 boards" trend [3]. Group 3: Challenges - Despite its focus on vertical integration within its main business, Zhejiang Shibao faces challenges such as high accounts receivable, which stood at 1.181 billion yuan as of September 30 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest from institutional investors in Zhejiang Shibao due to the favorable developments in L3-level autonomous driving and the company's strong stock performance, achieving "5 limit-up in 8 days" [1] - Zhejiang Shibao's stock price has shown a rapid response, with a continuous rise leading to a closing price of 21.22 yuan per share by December 25, following five limit-up closures in eight trading days [2] - The company reported a revenue of 2.693 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 48.04%, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, which is a 93.15% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Zhejiang Shibao specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of automotive steering systems and components, with a significant portion of its revenue (94.18%) coming from this sector in 2024 [2] - The automotive steering system industry has high entry barriers, requiring manufacturers to pass multiple standards and trials before becoming qualified suppliers for automakers [2] - The company maintains close relationships with major automotive manufacturers, with its top five clients, including Chery, Geely, NIO, and Li Auto, accounting for 66.01% of total sales [2] - As of September 30, Zhejiang Shibao faced challenges with high accounts receivable, totaling 1.181 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development and commercialization of L3-level autonomous driving technology have attracted institutional investment towards related concept stocks, particularly Zhejiang Shibao, which has experienced a strong market performance with "5 limit-up in 8 days" [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhejiang Shibao's stock price has shown a significant increase, with four consecutive limit-up days starting from December 16, reaching a closing price of 21.22 yuan per share by December 25 [2]. - In the 2024 annual report, Zhejiang Shibao reported a revenue of 2.693 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, up 93.15% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from steering systems and components accounted for 94.18% of the total revenue in 2024, indicating a strong focus on this segment [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The automotive steering system industry has a relatively high entry barrier, requiring manufacturers to pass multiple standards and trials before becoming qualified suppliers for automakers [2]. - Zhejiang Shibao maintains close relationships with major automakers, with its top five customers, including Chery, Geely, NIO, and Li Auto, contributing a total sales amount of 1.778 billion yuan, which accounts for 66.01% of total sales [2]. - The company is actively advancing its development of steer-by-wire technology, with plans to achieve mass production conditions by the second half of 2026, aligning with the push for higher-level autonomous driving [1]. Group 3: Financial Challenges - Despite its strong performance, Zhejiang Shibao faces challenges such as high accounts receivable, which amounted to 1.181 billion yuan as of September 30 [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the advancements in the autonomous driving industry, particularly focusing on Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving and Robotaxi developments in China and Tesla's initiatives abroad [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **L3 Autonomous Driving License Issuance**: China has issued L3 autonomous driving licenses for the first time, allowing preliminary commercial testing, indicating strong governmental support for the autonomous driving industry. Previously, only Germany permitted L3 testing under specific conditions [1][2]. - **Tesla's Robotaxi Testing**: Tesla has advanced its Robotaxi testing overseas, demonstrating instances of fully autonomous driving, suggesting that its technology is reaching a mature evaluation stage, which may accelerate the commercialization process of Robotaxi [1][2][6]. - **Human-Machine Collaboration**: L3 represents a critical phase of human-machine collaboration, where vehicles handle issues and alert drivers, who must take over if not done within a specified time (usually 8 seconds). This makes L3 more suitable for consumer users, especially in stable driving conditions [3][4]. - **Market Potential for L3 Development**: The development of L3 will enhance algorithms and computing power. Key systems like steer-by-wire are crucial for freeing up driver time, indicating a broad market potential. Additional redundancy in actuators, such as brake-by-wire, is also necessary [5]. Industry Beneficiaries - **Nexteer Automotive**: As a leading domestic player, Nexteer is expected to benefit from the steer-by-wire trend and has already secured numerous customer orders [5]. - **China Automotive Technology & Research Center (CATARC)**: As a top enterprise, CATARC is poised to gain from the increased testing business volume and value brought by the upgrade in autonomous driving technologies [5]. Additional Important Insights - **CyberCab Hardware**: Tesla's CyberCab, designed specifically for Robotaxi, is a significant development, and related hardware manufacturers are worth monitoring from an investment perspective [6][7]. - **Supply Chain Opportunities**: The supply chain associated with CyberCab and applications in steer-by-wire technology are highlighted as important areas for investment consideration [7]. This summary encapsulates the key developments and insights from the conference call records, focusing on the advancements in L3 autonomous driving and the implications for the industry and potential investment opportunities.