Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Uncertainty - The market perceives the Federal Reserve (Fed) as divided and cautious due to uncertainties surrounding inflation, labor market, government shutdown, and tariffs [1][2] - The Fed's debate needs resolution, which is a key focus for markets [3] - The Fed faces challenges in justifying policy moves without reliable economic data, especially given its data-dependent stance [5][6] - The Fed is considering a pause in policy adjustments due to data limitations caused by events like government shutdowns [5][6] - The Fed is aware of the debate surrounding the concentration of GDP growth in the AI sector but considers overall growth from consumers [12][13] - The Fed acknowledges the AI sector's contribution to GDP growth but questions its sustainability, which is unlikely to drive major decisions at this stage [14] Data & Economic Indicators - The Fed can use alternative data sources like state data and private sector indices to compensate for missing official economic reports [5][9] - Bank of America research indicates credit card spending is up over 2% for the week ending October 4th [8] - Earnings reports from companies like Delta Airlines and PepsiCo can provide insights into inflation and consumer spending [9] - Private sector economic reports may also be affected by the lack of incoming government data [9] - Atlanta Fed GDPNow tool estimates GDP growth at 38% [11]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is expected to be around 4.8%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters[3] - The manufacturing investment growth rate from January to September is projected to be 4.0%, which is the first time since 2021 that it may fall below the GDP growth rate[1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of around -0.2% in September[11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to decline by approximately -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year improvement from -2.9% to -2.5%[12] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to drop to -0.2% for the first nine months, with real estate investment declining by 13.2%[18] - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 3.2% in September, influenced by high base effects from durable goods[21] Policy Adjustments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to real estate purchase restrictions in major cities and the introduction of new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan to support project capital[2][5] - The government aims to enhance economic monitoring and timely policy adjustments based on economic conditions[1]

The circular flow model of economics shows how money moves through an economy in a constant loop from producers to consumers and back again, factoring into a nation’s GDP. https://t.co/vg80yepUZw ...

Learn which countries are among the top 25 economies in the world. The United States has had the largest GDP for over a century, but China's has grown rapidly. https://t.co/u2gOQ8Yk6J ...

For the first time in over a decade, a key monthly jobs report has been postponed as employees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics face furls. This due to the government shutdown. Amid the hold out, Trump officials are warning mass layoffs at the federal level are coming in just a few days.Meanwhile, Americans are voicing their frustrations with the Trump administration's economic policies. Joining me now is Courtney Brown, economics reporter at Axio. So, Courtney, welcome.Uh many employees are still reportin ...

Core Insights - The ranking of China's top 25 cities by GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 reveals a new regional economic landscape, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen leading the pack [1] - Suzhou has become the first ordinary prefecture-level city to surpass 2 trillion yuan in GDP, showcasing strong growth resilience [1][3] - Emerging cities like Jinan and Xi'an are making significant strides, with Jinan breaking the 1 trillion yuan mark for the first time [1][4] Group 1: Top Cities and Growth Rates - Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen maintain the top three positions with GDPs of 40,515 billion yuan, 38,413.2 billion yuan, and 27,480.62 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth rates of 17.81%, 14.80%, and 5.96% [5] - Suzhou ranks sixth with a GDP of 20,016 billion yuan and a growth rate of 8.29%, leading among core cities in the Yangtze River Delta [3][5] - Jinan's GDP is projected at 10,531.87 billion yuan, ranking 17th nationally, with a notable growth rate of 8.86% [6][7] Group 2: Economic Contributions and Sector Performance - Suzhou's manufacturing sector continues to show unique advantages, with significant contributions from industrial value-added and emerging industries like biomedicine and nanotechnology [3] - Jinan's high-speed rail economic effect is evident, with over 3,000 enterprises gathered around the Jinan East Station, and a daily passenger volume exceeding 200,000 [4] - Xi'an leads the growth among cities in the northwest with a GDP of 9,645.41 billion yuan and a growth rate of 11.05%, driven by investments in high-tech industries [6][7] Group 3: Regional Economic Dynamics - The competition among cities is diversifying, with the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Pearl River Delta regions showing strong performances [1][6] - The "strong provincial capital" strategy in Jinan has led to over 20% growth in the new generation information technology sector [4] - The development of a "double center" city in Xi'an is supported by policy incentives and significant growth in hard technology investments [6]

There's a lot of questions right now in AI about whether we're in this sort of gold rush or whether we're in some kind of sugar rush. I think a lot of people even looked at the investment that Nvidia made uh in open AI both on as a a good investment on one end and on another people said well maybe this is a little bit like vendor financing in the in the late 90s uh where a lot of these companies ultimately don't have the cash to actually buy all the chips and do all the things that they've committed to do. ...

Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...

Time for money, power, politics. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett warned today that US growth could take a hit. He says because of the government shutdown.Remember, the US economy has been on an upward climb for the last couple of quarters despite growing anxiety about inflation, tariffs, and what's gotten to be a more fragile labor market. Unfortunately, we might not know for some time whether Bessin is right or wrong because the shutdown has triggered an economic data blackout. With me now to discuss, Nat ...

we were left with a mess. It was the largest deficit uh when we weren't in a recession, weren't at war, and we are fixing the deficit. And um you know, there could be a a discussion, but this isn't the way to have a discussion.Shutting down the government and lowering the GDP. They they you have a 3.8% 8% GDP and the Democrats shut down the government that you we could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working Americans. The Democrats want to negotiate uh you know in the you know like terro ...