Core Insights - Meta's online advertising business is projected to face a $7 billion decline in 2025 due to the impact of President Trump's tariffs on China, affecting retailers like Temu and Shien [1][3][5] - The company's revenue from China was reported at $18.35 billion in 2024, accounting for over 11% of total sales, indicating the significant role of Chinese advertisers in Meta's revenue stream [3][5] - Analysts suggest that if Chinese retailers reduce their advertising budgets, it could severely impact Meta's ad sales, with potential losses reaching $23 billion if a recession occurs alongside ongoing trade tensions [5][6] Impact of Trade Dispute - The MoffettNathanson research highlights that the U.S.-China trade dispute is leading to a reduction in advertising spending from Chinese retailers, which is crucial for Meta's revenue [2][4] - There are already indications of reduced ad spending, as seen with Temu's cutback in U.S. advertising and a drop in its app rankings [4][5] Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a Buy rating on Meta but have lowered their target price from $710 to $525, reflecting concerns over the potential impact of reduced ad spending and economic downturns [6] - The company is particularly vulnerable to a decline in advertising from Chinese sources, which could compound the effects of a broader economic recession [6]

Chevron is not seeing signs that the U.S. is close to a recession even as President Donald Trump's tariffs weigh on expectations for oil demand, CEO Mike Wirth said Tuesday. "There's no signs that we see at this point that we are in or close to a recession," Wirth told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "There are signs that growth may be slowing and we have to always be prepared for that." "The effects that we feel are likely to be more the macroeconomic effects as they flow through the economy," Wirth said. "The bigger ...

So far, 2025 has proven to be a terrible year in the stock markets, and nearly all of it has to do with the economic fallouts of the start of President Trump's second term in the White House: tariff escalations, a possible coming recession, andWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regula ...

The stock market dropped sharply on Monday as tariff concerns, a falling dollar, and rising yields hit the stock market. Consumer goods companies look like they're facing a very uncertain year. The most notable moves on Monday came in home improvement retail, consumer retail, and fashion. Home Depot (HD -2.22%) dropped 3.6% on Monday, Lowe's Companies (LOW -2.83%) was down 2.8%, Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT -2.23%) fell 2.6%, and Deckers Outdoor (DECK -1.93%) had dropped 2% by market close. The bond market is e ...

Group 1: U.S. Credit Ratings - In 2011, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the U.S. long-term credit outlook from AAA to AA+ due to budgetary issues, with Fitch downgrading U.S. credit again in 2023 and Moody's considering a similar move [1] - The 2024 fiscal deficit has ballooned to over $1.8 trillion, exacerbating debt and fiscal issues [1] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft holds AAA and Aaa ratings from S&P and Moody's, respectively, and has seen its stock fall about 12% this year, outperforming peers in the "Magnificent Seven" [4][6] - The company has a diverse business model across various tech sectors, including cloud, video games, and AI, and was an early investor in OpenAI [4] - Microsoft has a strong balance sheet with over $71.5 billion in cash and equivalents, approximately $40 billion in long-term debt, and equity exceeding $302 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio [6] Group 3: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson is the only other U.S. company with top credit ratings and recently announced an acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion, which may impact its credit rating due to increased debt [7] - The stock has performed well, up nearly 9% this year, and the company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $91.4 billion from $89.4 billion [8] - Johnson & Johnson's CFO indicated that the guidance includes a $400 million impact from tariffs, which could affect stock performance if trade tensions with China persist [9] - At the end of 2024, Johnson & Johnson had over $24 billion in cash, about $30.6 billion in long-term debt, and over $71 billion in total equity, maintaining a strong balance sheet despite the recent acquisition [10]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix co-CEO Gregory Peters expresses confidence in the company's resilience amid economic concerns, highlighting the entertainment industry's historical stability during tough times [1][2]. Financial Performance - Netflix reported revenue of $10.54 billion for Q1, surpassing analysts' estimates of $10.52 billion [7]. - Diluted per-share earnings reached $6.61, exceeding consensus estimates of $5.71 [7]. - The company projects revenue to rise to $11.04 billion for Q2, above the analyst consensus of $10.90 billion, driven by membership growth and higher pricing [8]. User Engagement - Netflix has achieved 70 million monthly active users on its ad-supported plan, which starts at $7.99, contributing to 55% of new sign-ups in available markets [4]. - Customer retention has been described as "stable and strong," with engagement levels remaining healthy [6]. Market Outlook - Peters notes that Netflix's low-cost ad plan provides additional resilience against economic pressures [4]. - The company is closely monitoring consumer sentiment and broader economic trends but has not identified any significant negative impacts [5].

Core Viewpoint - Netflix reported strong first-quarter results, outperforming revenue and earnings targets, amidst a challenging earnings season for many companies due to economic uncertainties [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company solidly beat its revenue and earnings targets for the first quarter [2]. - Netflix maintained its full-year projection provided three months ago, indicating confidence in its business outlook despite external challenges [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The earnings season is characterized by uncertainty from tariffs, trade wars, and potential recession risks affecting various companies [2].

Core Viewpoint - Netflix reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with stable demand despite macroeconomic challenges, supported by a low-cost ad-supported plan [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Netflix's first-quarter net income was $2.89 billion, or $6.61 per diluted share, compared to $2.33 billion, or $5.28 per share in the same quarter last year [7] - Revenue for the quarter reached $10.54 billion, up from $9.37 billion, aligning with Wall Street's expectations of $10.5 billion [7] Subscriber Growth and Market Position - The company has 302 million subscribers, leading the online streaming market, followed by Prime Video with over 200 million and Disney+ with 125 million [6] - Subscriber growth was described as "healthy," although specific numbers were not disclosed for the first time [8] Macroeconomic Context - Netflix executives noted no significant impact from macroeconomic factors, including tariffs, on their business outlook [2][3] - The company believes that entertainment remains resilient during economic downturns, as people continue to consume content regardless of economic conditions [4][5] Future Aspirations - Netflix aims for a $1 trillion market cap by 2030, with plans to double revenue to around $80 billion and achieve $9 billion in global ad sales [10][11] - The company also targets to triple its operating income to $30 billion and increase subscriber count to 410 million by 2030 [11] Strategic Insights - Netflix's strategy focuses on organic growth rather than costly acquisitions, avoiding overspending on major sports programming [14][15] - This approach allows Netflix to avoid managing a declining legacy business and expensive sports contracts, positioning it for future growth [15]

Thursday, April 17, 2025Considering the blue-chip Dow face-planted ahead of the open on a disappointing Q1 report from UnitedHealth (UNH) , which results in a -22% tanking by Thursday’s close, this was a pretty flat day. The S&P 500 closed +0.13% and the Nasdaq finished the session -0.13% — hard to get flatter than that. And the small-cap Russell 2000 quietly put together a decent +0.92% showing.UnitedHealth has now swung to a -10% loss year to date, just as investors were coming around to putting their mon ...

ToplineNetflix had its best quarter ever, according to earnings results announced Thursday afternoon, setting the stakes for Netflix stock moving forward after it emerged as a perhaps surprising stock market safe haven during the recent slump.Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos attends a Netflix premiere in February.Getty Images for NetflixKey FactsIn its Q1 report released shortly after 4 p.m. EDT market close, Netflix reported its best-ever quarterly earnings per share and revenue numbers. Netflix scored $6.61 E ...