制作日期： 2025/05/08 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品多数下跌，玻璃跌 2.96%，纯 碱跌 2.7%，原油跌 1.52%，PVC 跌 1.37%，乙二醇跌 1.14%，甲醇跌 1.11%，苯 乙烯跌1.04%。黑色系全线下跌，焦煤跌2.57%，焦炭跌2.45%，铁矿石跌1.12%。 农产品多数下跌，豆一跌 1.58%，白糖跌 1.09%。基本金属全线下跌。沪铝跌 1.55%，沪锡跌 0.94%，沪铜跌 0.74%，沪铅跌 0.57%，沪锌跌 0.49%。沪金涨 0.07%，沪银跌 1.15%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.47%报 3372.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 2.31%报 32.61 美元/盎司。美联储维持利率政策，通胀和经 济前景不确定性加剧市场波动，同时贸易政策的不确定性继续影响避险资产需 求。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 ...

Industry Overview - The auto industry is facing significant challenges due to a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and another 25% duty on non-compliant auto parts, which could increase costs for automakers by tens of billions of dollars [1] - Demand for vehicles is expected to soften, and supply chain disruptions are likely to worsen, leading several automakers to cut back or pause their guidance [1] Case for Ford - Ford reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $1 billion in EBIT, exceeding expectations, driven by cost-cutting and strong pricing in North America [3] - U.S. pickup sales reached their highest first-quarter levels in over 20 years, and the Model e division saw a 15% year-over-year increase in retail sales [4] - Ford is on track for $1 billion in net cost reductions this year, despite anticipating a $2.5 billion impact from new tariffs [5] - The company has paused full-year guidance due to tariff uncertainty but plans to provide updates in the second-quarter earnings call [6] - Ford's financial position is strong, with over $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in total liquidity, and it aims to return 40-50% of free cash flow to shareholders [7] Earnings Estimates for Ford - Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's current year EPS is $1.22, with a year-over-year growth estimate of -33.70% [9] Case for Tesla - Tesla is experiencing a decline in deliveries amid increased competition and missed earnings expectations in the first quarter of 2025 [10] - The company is implementing price cuts to stimulate sales, which is negatively impacting automotive margins [10] - Tesla's energy generation and storage segment is growing but is not yet large enough to offset pressures on vehicle sales [11] - The company held $37 billion in cash as of March 31, 2025, with a low debt-to-capital ratio of 7% [11] - Tesla is focusing on next-generation technologies, including robotaxi services and autonomous vehicles, but these projects face significant execution risks [12] Earnings Estimates for Tesla - Tesla's near-term outlook is uncertain, hinging on stabilizing its EV operations and progress on long-term innovations [13] Valuation Comparison - Tesla is trading at a forward sales multiple of 8.38X, significantly above the industry's 2.3 and its own median of 7.73X, while Ford has a forward sales multiple of 0.26X, below its 5-year average of 0.31 [16] Conclusion - Both Ford and Tesla are facing industry headwinds, but Ford appears to be in a better position due to its focus on cost reductions and commercial fleet strength [19] - Tesla is under pressure in its core EV business while pursuing ambitious long-term projects, making its stock vulnerable in the near term [20]

Key Takeaways Uber and Lyft will report earnings this week. Uber Leads the ride-sharing market due to its market share, performance, and diverse business. Robotaxis are a crucial focus for both companies. Uber, Lyft to Report Earnings This WeekLater this week, the two ride-share leaders,Uber Technologies ((UBER) and Lyft ((LYFT) ), will report first-quarter 2025 earnings.Lyft generates almost its entire revenue from ridesharing and owns roughly a quarter of the ride-sharing market in the United States. Me ...

Core Business Challenges - Tesla's stock has fallen approximately 30% this year, with first-quarter deliveries of around 337,000 being the lowest since 2022 [1] - Sales in Europe reportedly dropped nearly 50% year-over-year in January and February, despite overall EV sales in Europe growing by 28% during that period [3] - In China, Tesla's sales have also declined significantly, with BYD capturing over 30% market share and surpassing Tesla in annual revenue [4] New Initiatives - Tesla plans to begin production of a lower-cost model in June, although details on pricing remain unclear and the launch may be slower than initially expected [8] - The company is set to launch a new software system with unsupervised full self-driving capabilities and aims for a robotaxi launch in Austin as early as June [9] - Optimus robots are still in development, with significant production expected towards the end of the year, but they are not yet contributing to revenue [10] Valuation Concerns - Tesla is trading at 147 times forward earnings, indicating a valuation heavily reliant on future initiatives and the leadership of Elon Musk [12] - The increasing competition in the EV market raises concerns about whether Tesla's future initiatives will meet expectations, which could negatively impact its high valuation and stock price [13]

Core Insights - The company predicts that it will achieve breakeven around 2028 with a vehicle scale of approximately 50,000 units [1] - The development of L4-level autonomous driving technology is seen as a long-term endeavor requiring collaboration across the industry [2] Group 1: Company Developments - The seventh-generation automotive-grade autonomous driving hardware and software system was launched, with overall costs reduced by 70% compared to the previous generation [1] - The company is collaborating with BAIC, GAC, and Toyota on mass production models, which are currently in trial production and expected to begin regular production in the second half of this year [2] - The partnership with automakers is characterized by a close collaborative model rather than a simple supplier relationship, focusing on joint research and development [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The financing environment for autonomous driving companies has improved since mid-last year, with increased investment activity in specific segments like Robotaxi and low-speed heavy-duty vehicles [1] - The overall investment situation in the autonomous driving industry is better this year compared to last year, indicating a potential recovery from previous downturns [1] - The commercial progress of L4-level autonomous driving technology requires further accumulation and improvement, including legal regulations, user experience, cost reduction, and a complete industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - Mobileye Global Inc. reported strong first-quarter revenue growth of 83% year-on-year, reaching $438 million, surpassing analyst expectations, while adjusted EPS met consensus estimates [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - First-quarter revenue increased by 83% year-on-year to $438 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $435.2 million [1]. - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was 8 cents, aligning with analyst consensus [1]. - FY25 earnings per share projected at 27 cents, while FY26 EPS estimate was lowered from 40 cents to 35 cents [5]. Group 2: Partnerships and Contracts - Strong design win momentum highlighted, including Mobileye's first Surround ADAS win and a significant ADAS contract with a Korean automaker [2]. - Progress noted in robotaxi partnerships with Uber and Lyft, with potential for meaningful contributions by 2027 [2]. - Lyft collaboration is advancing, with initial rollouts expected in Dallas by 2026, operated by Marubeni [3]. Group 3: Business Model and Forecast Adjustments - Partnerships will follow a business model involving a one-time upfront system fee and recurring licensing fees based on mileage, providing solid average selling prices and favorable margins [4]. - 2025 estimates remain mostly intact, with slight adjustments to gross margin and operating expenses; however, 2026 forecasts were reduced due to anticipated delays in SuperVision and CAV unit volumes [4]. - Porsche identified as the only driver of incremental SV volume in the near term [5].

⑤2025年1月：马斯克预计今年将在美国多个地区推出无监管FSD。4月，马斯克在财报电话会议上预 测，今年底前，完全自动驾驶系统将实现个人使用的无监督模式。 2. 经济型电动汽车 ①2020年9月：马斯克承诺将打造一款定价2.5万美元的电动车。 金十整理：从自动驾驶到"火星梦"，马斯克的承诺兑现率如何？ 1. 全自动驾驶（FSD） ①2013年：特斯拉早在2013年即提出开发自动驾驶系统Autopilot，次年2014年推出HW1.0。 ②2015年：马斯克称自动驾驶汽车将在三年内面世；2016年10月，马斯克宣称到2017年年底，特斯拉电 动车就能从洛杉矶开到纽约，其间不需要用手触摸方向盘。 ③2021年：特斯拉向监管部门表示年底前可能无法实现全自动驾驶。 ④2022年11月：FSD Beta向所有购买该选项的北美车主开放。2024年4月，特斯拉推送有监管的FSD版 本，去掉了beta测试版字样。 ②2021年：马斯克表示，2.5万美元的电动车将在2023年开始生产。此后2022年、2023年，马斯克多次 调整时间表。 ③2024年初：有报道称特斯拉已取消Model 2的开发计划，将专注于自动驾驶出租车。马 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report appears disappointing at first glance, but it contains underlying improvements, particularly in vehicle sales margins and pricing stability [1][5]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $19.34 billion, falling short of market expectations but slightly better than revised estimates of around $20 billion for automotive revenue [1][12]. - Automotive revenue reached $14.2 billion, with actual vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) at $12.9 billion, slightly below the latest market expectations [12][15]. Vehicle Sales and Margins - The gross margin for vehicle sales, excluding carbon credits, was 12.5%, exceeding market expectations of 12.2% and reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][19]. - The average selling price per vehicle remained stable at $40,000, showing a slight increase from $39,800 in the previous quarter [2][21]. Future Sales Guidance - Tesla did not reiterate its previous guidance for positive year-over-year sales growth in 2025, but confirmed plans to launch the lower-cost Model 2.5 in the first half of 2025, alleviating market concerns about its cancellation [2][45]. Operating Profit and Costs - Operating profit for the quarter was $400 million, down nearly $1.2 billion from the previous quarter and below market expectations of $700 million, resulting in an operating margin of 2.1% [3][55]. - Increased operating expenses contributed to the decline in operating profit, with R&D expenses at $1.41 billion, exceeding market expectations [50][55]. Market Conditions and Risks - The market has lowered its 2025 sales expectations to 1.81 million units, with some analysts projecting even lower figures due to various regional challenges [7][47]. - In the U.S., potential cuts to the IRA subsidies could raise vehicle prices by approximately 12%, impacting demand [6][46]. - In Europe, recent policy changes regarding carbon emissions targets may create uncertainty for electric vehicle sales [6][46]. - In China, Tesla faces increasing competition and declining attractiveness of its models, particularly the Model Y Juniper [6][47].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings report appears disappointing at first glance, but it contains underlying improvements, particularly in vehicle sales margins and pricing stability [3][7]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $19.34 billion, which fell short of market expectations but was slightly below the revised estimates of around $20 billion from major banks [3][14]. - Automotive revenue reached $14.2 billion, with actual vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) at $12.9 billion, slightly below the latest expectations of $13.1 billion [14][15]. Vehicle Sales Margins - The gross margin for vehicle sales (excluding carbon credits) was 12.5%, which, despite a 1.1 percentage point decline from the previous quarter, exceeded market expectations of 12.2% [3][20][25]. - The decline in margins was anticipated due to lower sales volumes and production halts related to the Model Y Juniper update, which raised per-unit costs to historical highs [7][20]. Vehicle Pricing Stability - The average selling price per vehicle remained stable at $40,000, showing a slight increase from $39,800 in the previous quarter [4][27]. - The stability in pricing was attributed to the high starting price of the Model Y Juniper, which offset promotional financing measures and negative impacts from changes in vehicle mix [4][29]. Future Sales Guidance - Tesla did not reiterate its previous guidance for positive year-over-year sales growth in 2025, indicating that further guidance will be provided in Q2 [4][51]. - The launch of the lower-cost Model 2.5 is still on track for production in the first half of 2025, alleviating market concerns about potential delays [4][51]. Operating Profit and Margin Trends - Operating profit for the quarter was only $400 million, a decline of nearly $1.2 billion from the previous quarter and below market expectations of $700 million [5][61]. - The operating margin fell to 2.1%, down 4 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenue and increased operating expenses [5][61]. Market Environment and Risks - The overall market environment for 2025 remains challenging, with significant risks in the U.S. related to potential cuts in IRA subsidies, which could increase vehicle prices by approximately 12% [8][52]. - In Europe, the recent easing of carbon emission targets may lead to uncertainty in electric vehicle sales, while in China, Tesla faces increasing competition from new entrants [8][52][53]. Sales Volume Expectations - Current market expectations for Tesla's 2025 sales have been lowered to 1.81 million units, reflecting a modest year-over-year growth of 1.3%, with some analysts projecting even lower figures around 1.7 million [9][51]. - The success of the Model 2.5 is critical for stabilizing sales volumes, with production expected to ramp up in June [9][53].

Tesla saw a 9% drop in revenue year over year in the first quarter of 2025. The company brought in $19.3bn in revenue, well below Wall Street expectations of $21.45bn. The company reported an earnings per share of 27 cents, also well under investor expectations of 43 cents in earnings per share. Company sales plummeted in the first three months of the year. The company suffered a 13% drop in sales, making it the company's worst quarter since 2022. Tesla closed the quarter with 336,681 vehicles delivered. De ...