Group 1 - The Romanian government plans to implement a tax increase and salary freeze to reduce the budget deficit below 6% of GDP by 2026 [1] - As of January to May 2025, Romania's budget deficit is projected to be 3.4% of GDP, with an expected increase to 7% by the end of the year, which is higher than other EU member states [1]

Group 1 - Russia's financial reserves have significantly decreased from 10 trillion rubles to 6 trillion rubles in just two months, indicating a severe fiscal crisis [1] - The average daily expenditure of Russia in the ongoing conflict is over 400 million USD, approximately 30 billion RMB, highlighting the financial strain of military operations [3] - The energy export sector, previously a major revenue source for Russia, is under pressure due to Western sanctions, with the IMF predicting a mere 0.3% GDP growth for Russia this year, suggesting economic stagnation [5][7] Group 2 - Russia is actively seeking to enhance energy cooperation with China, with the Russian Energy Minister frequently visiting China to discuss potential projects [9] - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project is a focal point for Russia, aiming to transport natural gas to China, but the financial terms proposed by Russia may be seen as excessive by China [11][13] - China is shifting from emotional cooperation to interest-based cooperation, emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial agreements rather than one-sided concessions [15][25] Group 3 - Russian energy companies are facing a significant decline in net profits, dropping from 1.445 trillion rubles to 789.5 billion rubles year-on-year, reflecting a severe downturn in the energy sector [20] - High domestic interest rates and a rapidly increasing debt burden are exacerbating Russia's financial challenges, with 20% benchmark interest rates and a 14% annual debt growth rate [21] - The reliance on Chinese markets for energy exports is seen as a potential lifeline for Russia, but sustainable cooperation must be based on shared interests and risk-sharing [23][27]

Core Viewpoint - Despite Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government bond credit rating, foreign investors are unlikely to abandon the U.S. bond market due to a lack of suitable alternatives [1] Group 1 - The number of countries with an AAA sovereign credit rating is very limited, approximately 11, and their bond markets are significantly smaller compared to the U.S. bond market [1] - The U.S. market possesses unique depth and breadth that other markets do not have [1] - If long-term government bond yields remain above 5%, a critical point may be reached where the hedging effect, particularly the yield spread, becomes attractive [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly last week and remains at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upward space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Moody's decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The international community warns that global governments must curb the rise of public debt due to the unsustainable fiscal path caused by rising interest rates [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, the interest rate is in a low range, and the upward space is limited in the medium and long term. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures showed a weak downward trend. The TS2509 contract rose 0.03%, the TF2509 contract rose 0.14%, the T2509 contract rose 0.18%, and the TL2509 contract rose 0.26% [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [10] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage of Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of long-term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [13] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [14] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 20th, and medium and long-term yields have risen [19]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt and tariff policies are pushing the country towards a financial crisis, with increasing inflation and loss of investor confidence in debt management [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Economic Policies - The U.S. government is promoting a massive tax cut bill, which is seen as disastrous and likely to increase inflation [1]. - Investors are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, leading to concerns about the potential for a debt sell-off [1][2]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenditures [1]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The U.S. Treasury had to sell 20-year bonds at high interest rates, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields reaching levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis [1]. - By the end of 2026, the U.S. will need to restructure $9 trillion in debt, replacing low-interest old debt with high-interest new debt, which is becoming increasingly unattractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Consequences of Debt Management - A potential sell-off of U.S. Treasuries could lead to significant wealth evaporation, particularly affecting U.S. savers [2]. - Central banks may shift reserves from U.S. Treasuries to gold, resulting in a substantial increase in gold prices [2]. - Continued escalation of trade wars and unreliability of the U.S. could lead to a complete loss of confidence in the dollar, signaling a systemic collapse [2].

Group 1 - The Central Committee and State Council of China issued opinions on improving the modern enterprise system, emphasizing the need for state-owned enterprises to optimize their equity structure for better operational efficiency [1] - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook, which the Ministry of Finance interpreted as a positive reflection of China's economic prospects [2] - The State Council and Central Military Commission announced regulations for the protection of important military facilities, effective from September 15, 2025, aimed at enhancing national defense modernization [3] - The National Film Administration encouraged service providers from Hong Kong and Macau to invest in film production companies in mainland China [4] - A pilot program for credit bond ETFs is set to launch a general pledge-style repurchase business, with several public fund institutions' credit bond ETFs meeting the criteria for inclusion in the repurchase pledge library [5] - Zhongyida announced a significant stock price increase of 299.26% from March 10 to May 26, 2025, despite no major changes in the company's fundamentals [6] Group 2 - Longi Green Energy announced the resignation of its general manager and legal representative, Li Zhenguo [7] - Zijin Mining Group plans to spin off Zijin Gold International for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - Dongxin Co., Ltd. reported that Shanghai Lishuan received its first batch of packaged G100 chips and completed major functionality tests [9] - Jiadu Technology announced the disposal of part of its equity in Cloudwalk Technology, resulting in a post-tax investment loss of 16.2877 million yuan [10] - Huide Technology, which has seen a four-day stock price increase, announced that its subsidiary's polyurethane new materials project has obtained construction land and is currently in the administrative approval stage [11] - Foton Motor plans to jointly invest 500 million yuan with EVE Energy to establish a new energy technology company to expand its new energy heavy truck business [12] - Rongsheng Environmental Protection announced that its controlling shareholder and actual controller, Feng Ronghua, has been taken into custody by law enforcement [13] - Hahantong announced that its products can be used in controllable nuclear fusion projects, although revenue from this sector is currently minimal [14] - Huarui Precision stated that it has received small batch orders following preliminary sample testing in collaboration with Yushu Technology [15] - Meituan reported first-quarter revenue of 86.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.95 billion yuan, up 46.2% year-on-year, with CEO Wang Xing emphasizing a commitment to compete aggressively against rivals [16] - European stock indices rose, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index up 0.99% and the DAX 30 index up 1.68% [17] - The EU has agreed to accelerate negotiations with the US to avoid a transatlantic trade war, with positive discussions reported between EU and US trade officials [18]

Market Overview - European stock markets opened higher, with Germany's DAX index rising by 1.76%, France's CAC40 increasing by 1.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.64% [1] - As of 19:45, the DAX index was up 1.70%, CAC40 was up 1.18%, and Euro Stoxx 50 was up 1.50% [1] Gold and Currency Trends - Spot gold prices fell below $3,330 per ounce, trading at $3,330.71 per ounce as of 19:45 [2] - The COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,329.80 per ounce [2] - The US dollar index weakened, reported at 99.0539, down 0.07% as of May 26, 19:45 [3] US Debt Market Concerns - The US national debt reached $36.89 trillion, with interest payments projected to rise from $564.24 billion in 2019 to $1.11 trillion by 2025, becoming the second-largest budget item after Social Security [7] - The recent tax and spending bill passed by the House is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US government debt [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.507%, down 0.46%, indicating rising bond prices amid market fears [7] Bond Market Reactions - On May 21, the US Treasury auctioned $15.78 billion in 20-year bonds with a high yield of 5.047%, causing market panic and raising concerns about a potential collapse in the US bond market [8] - The yield on 20-year bonds has significantly increased compared to previous rates, reflecting investor anxiety over inflation due to ongoing tariff negotiations [8] Tariff Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has led to market volatility, with President Trump's threats of increased tariffs causing significant declines in major stock indices and fluctuations in other asset classes [6][10] - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index may reveal different insights compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), potentially affecting market expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance views Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook as a positive reflection of the improving economic prospects in China [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Indicators - Since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a series of macroeconomic adjustment policies, leading to a recovery in economic indicators and stabilization of market expectations and confidence [1] - The sustainability of debt in the medium to long term has improved, contributing to Moody's decision to keep China's sovereign credit rating stable [1] Group 2: Global Economic Context - The global economy is facing multiple risks and challenges, including insufficient growth momentum, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and instability in international trade [1] - Despite these uncertainties, China's economy has shown a strong start, with high-quality development trends and stable growth in production and consumption demand [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work in synergy to support high-quality economic development [1] - Regardless of changes in the external environment, China will maintain confidence and focus on its internal affairs [1]

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...

穆迪下调美国主权信用评级对美国股市、债市的冲击依然在延续，目前看其对美债的负面影响最为显著。截至今日发稿前，美国20年期国债收益率升至 5.105%左右，30年期国债收益率升至5.086%左右，均为2023年10月以来最高位置。 来源：Choice 数据 "卖出美国"音量再起 本周三，20年期美债的公开市场拍卖发行的最高中标利率达到了5.047%，这是史上第二次得标利率超过5%，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57下降至 2.46，惨淡收场。这是本次美国主权信用评级被下调后的直接结果之一：美债市场受到冲击，价格出现疲软，吸引力出现下降。 长期以来，5%的水平一直被认为是一个重要的心理阈值——一旦越过这个阈值，可能会带来更多的抛售和更高的收益率。 美债价格的高低将直接关系到美元的地位以及美国股市的波动，吸引力下降的美债可能会导致部分避险资金流出美国，从而影响美元地位。而美联储为了 支撑美债而采取的增持行动，从结果看也可近似看做增发美元，引发美元汇率下降。 据新华社报道，美国桥水投资公司创始人瑞·达利欧近日警告，穆迪对美国主权信用评级的下调文件描述中，对美国债务风险"轻描淡写"，穆迪未计入可 能因为超印美元自购美 ...