全球持有美债的总规模已经冲上了9.36万亿美元的高位，乍一看，这仿佛是一场全球资本的饕餮盛宴。 然而，在这虚假繁荣的泡沫之下，曾稳坐美国最大债主交椅的中国，其持仓量却已悄然滑落至6826亿美元。 这一数字，不仅不仅击穿了心理防线，更是创下了自2008年金融危机以来的历史新低，面对这一决绝的去库存行动，美国财政部前官员惊呼："他们用了一 种新方式，我们想拦都拦不住。" 一边是全球看似疯狂的买入浪潮，一边是中国头也不回的离场背影，这高达万亿级别的债务缺口背后，究竟暗藏着怎样惊心动魄的金融博弈？ 2013年，彼时中国手中的美债规模还是1.3万亿美元的庞然大物，傲视群雄，而截至2025年11月，这一数字已定格在6826亿美元。 十年光阴，资产腰斩，这绝非简单的减持套现，而是一场经过精密计算、步步为营的战略大撤退，更让华尔街精英们坐立难安的，是那如同鬼魅般难以捉摸 的数据波动。 2025年2月，中国短暂增持，仿佛给市场吃了一颗定心丸；然而3月风云突变，立马掉头狂抛189亿；到了7月，更是单月挥刀狠砍257亿。 这种"进一退二、虚实相生"的战术手法，直接导致美联储引以为傲的监测系统彻底失灵，真正让大洋彼岸的专家们感到脊背 ...

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 美国股市连续第四个交易日上涨，通信服务和科技板块领涨，本周将公布重要的科技公司财报。 日元走强导致日本出口商和汽车制造商股价下跌，日经指数和东证指数均下跌约2%。 由于日元波动对企业盈利的影响存在不确定性，日元波动对股市整体而言是负面因素。欧洲股市小幅上 涨，材料和公用事业板块领涨，与大宗商品市场的强劲表现相呼应。 债券 美国国债上涨，两年期国债拍卖需求强劲，表明市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期仍然是美国政府 债券潜在收益的动力。地缘政治新闻减少也帮助推低了收益率。 欧洲债券市场上涨，法国债券领涨，持续的预算谈判进展推动法国和德国主权债券利差降至18个月以来 的最低水平。 上周日本国债市场的动荡引发了关于货币（日元干预）、全球政府债券（市场普遍担忧以及当前日本国 债收益率下的需求）以及日元套利交易可行性的进一步讨论。 外汇和大宗商品 大宗商品普遍上涨，彭博商品指数在过去五个交易日上涨7%（全部为上涨日）。白银和黄金的涨幅被 天然气近80%的年初至今涨幅所超越，这归因于严寒天气影响了供暖需求。 尽管当日白银上涨了6%，但由于获利回吐，白银价格较盘中高点下跌了近8%。受市场猜测日 ...

Group 1 - France's sovereign credit rating was downgraded by S&P Global from AA- to A+, highlighting the country's fiscal challenges and increasing the risk of forced selling of French bonds by some funds [1] - The downgrade follows a previous downgrade by Fitch, resulting in France losing two out of three major rating agencies' AA ratings within a month, with Moody's set to announce its assessment soon [1] - The report from S&P indicates high uncertainty regarding public finances ahead of the 2027 presidential election, exacerbated by severe political instability since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958 [1] Group 2 - The downgrade may reduce the attractiveness of French bonds to risk-averse asset owners, such as central bank reserve management departments and certain pension funds, which typically target assets rated AA or above [4] - Despite remaining in the investment-grade category, the downgrade could lead to forced sales during fund rebalancing, and investor sentiment has already been negatively impacted, with French borrowing costs exceeding those of lower-rated countries like Greece and Portugal [4] - The focus is now shifting to the French budget negotiations, with the Prime Minister having abandoned the use of constitutional provisions to bypass parliamentary votes, complicating the path to agreement on the 2026 budget [4]

Group 1 - Japanese investors sold foreign stocks for the third consecutive month, withdrawing approximately 536.4 billion JPY (about 3.64 billion USD) in July, following a 1.99 trillion JPY sale in June due to high valuations after a significant stock market rise [1] - In contrast, Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds worth 3.63 trillion JPY in July, marking the third month of net buying, driven by a depreciation of the yen that increased yields [1] - The yen depreciated by about 4.5% against the dollar in July, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Japanese trust accounts (pension funds) also net sold foreign stocks for the third month, with a net sale of 1.52 trillion JPY in foreign equities and a net purchase of 419.6 billion JPY in long-term bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan, investment trust management companies, and insurance companies had net inflows into foreign stocks of 445.5 billion JPY, 333.5 billion JPY, and 207.1 billion JPY respectively in July [4] - The overseas bond market received 3.82 trillion JPY in Japanese long-term bond investments, while short-term notes saw a net withdrawal of 196.6 billion JPY [4]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields continue to rise, indicating a trend in the fixed income market [1] - The yield on German 10-year government bonds increased by 6 basis points to 2.625% [1] - The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points to 3.555% [1] - The yield on French government bonds increased by 8 basis points to 3.328% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].