智通财经APP获悉，法国债券期货小幅走低，此前标普全球评级突发下调法国主权信用评级，从AA-下调至A+，凸显该国财政困境，并使部分基金面临被迫 抛售法国债券的风险。亚洲早盘，10年期法国债券期货下跌21个跳动点至122.94，德国同期合约跌幅相对温和。欧元在周五晚些时候承压，但基本走平。 此次降级使法国在一个多月内已失去三大评级机构中两家(惠誉9月已下调)的AA评级，穆迪将于周五公布其评估结果。 标普在报告中指出："2027年总统大选前公共财政不确定性仍然很高。"法国正经历自1958年第五共和国成立以来最严重的政治不稳定，"财政整顿计划缺乏 可见性，对经济增长构成压力。" 降级还可能降低法国债券对最规避风险的资产所有者(如央行储备管理部门及部分养老金基金)的吸引力。贝莱德、先锋集团和法通集团等公司管理的产品目 标为平均评级达AA及以上，此类产品在欧债危机期间因避险需求而广受欢迎。 法国债券仍稳居投资级区间，绝大多数持有者仍可继续持有。但基金再平衡时可能出现部分强制出售，且评级下调对投资者情绪的广泛打击已显现：自马克 龙去年提前举行立法选举导致悬浮议会以来，法国借贷成本持续高于欧元区同行，政治僵局已将国债收益率 ...

Group 1 - Japanese investors sold foreign stocks for the third consecutive month, withdrawing approximately 536.4 billion JPY (about 3.64 billion USD) in July, following a 1.99 trillion JPY sale in June due to high valuations after a significant stock market rise [1] - In contrast, Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds worth 3.63 trillion JPY in July, marking the third month of net buying, driven by a depreciation of the yen that increased yields [1] - The yen depreciated by about 4.5% against the dollar in July, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Japanese trust accounts (pension funds) also net sold foreign stocks for the third month, with a net sale of 1.52 trillion JPY in foreign equities and a net purchase of 419.6 billion JPY in long-term bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan, investment trust management companies, and insurance companies had net inflows into foreign stocks of 445.5 billion JPY, 333.5 billion JPY, and 207.1 billion JPY respectively in July [4] - The overseas bond market received 3.82 trillion JPY in Japanese long-term bond investments, while short-term notes saw a net withdrawal of 196.6 billion JPY [4]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields continue to rise, indicating a trend in the fixed income market [1] - The yield on German 10-year government bonds increased by 6 basis points to 2.625% [1] - The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points to 3.555% [1] - The yield on French government bonds increased by 8 basis points to 3.328% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].