主权财富基金

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中金:美国流动性冲击、重启QE与主权财富基金
中金点睛· 2025-04-09 23:31
点击小程序查看报告原文 当地时间4月8日,美国市场出现股债汇三杀,两个交易日内10年期美债利率从低点3.9%附近一度拉升至4.5%,市场开始担忧对冲基金基差交易(basis trade)去化带来的流动性风险。我们在 《特朗普"大重置":债务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值》 《美债季报:第二个流动性拐点》 中持续提示, 对冲基金 通过基差交易可能积累了1-1.5万亿美元规模的美债现货持仓。贸易摩擦带来的波动很有可能 促使基 差交易快速去化,进而导致债杀。 美债居于美元流动 性派生的核心(参见 《新宏观范式下的金融裂缝》 ),债杀易导致短端融资的核心抵押品快速缩水,造成流动性紧缩。而今年5-6月如果债务上限问题得 到解决,美债发行量增加,可能进一步吸收流动性。 我们提示,美国系统性金融风险的概率和美联储开启QE的概率在提升。 什么是基差交易? 基差交易横跨美国国债现货、期货和回购三个市场,利用现货与期货市场价差实现套利[1]。 由于国债期货较现货往往存在溢价,且溢价水平随着期货到 期日接近而减小(图表1),投资者可以通过做多国债现货(价格较低)并做空国债期货(价格较高),并等待期货交割。做多现货的资金可从回购市场 获得 ...
美国财长亲述:美国的困境是什么?特朗普的策略是什么?
华尔街见闻· 2025-03-22 12:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic challenges facing the United States, emphasizing the growing debt and deficit issues, and critiques the Biden administration's fiscal policies as unsustainable, potentially leading to increased taxes and reduced economic vitality [2][4][28]. Group 1: Debt and Deficit Concerns - The U.S. is facing urgent issues related to expanding debt and deficits, with criticism directed at the Biden administration for its unchecked spending during stable economic times [2][4]. - The article suggests that the government should gradually reduce spending to address debt and deficit issues without triggering an economic recession, noting that a $300 billion cut in spending could lead to a 1% decline in GDP [4][50]. Group 2: Inflation and Inequality - Current economic policies are contributing to rising inflation, disproportionately affecting the bottom 50% of wage earners, while asset owners benefit from stock market gains, exacerbating social inequality [2][35]. - The "ordinary person index" has reportedly increased by over 30% to 35%, indicating that the cost of living for lower-income groups is rising faster than the general consumer price index (CPI), which has risen by about 22% [35][36]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - The article outlines several plans to address these economic challenges, including reducing government spending, adjusting the international trade system to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., and utilizing tariffs to incentivize domestic production [5][50][52]. - A sovereign wealth fund is proposed to better manage national assets and create wealth for citizens, alongside the idea of "baby bonds" for newborns to promote long-term wealth accumulation [6][52]. Group 4: Regulatory and Tax Policy - Lowering energy prices and easing financial regulations are seen as essential for stimulating private sector growth and economic recovery [3][54]. - Tax cuts and regulatory relief are expected to boost GDP growth, with projections suggesting an increase from 1.8% to 3% or higher, which could alter the economic trajectory [58][59]. Group 5: Government Spending and Efficiency - The article emphasizes the need for government efficiency rather than merely cutting services, suggesting that reforms can lead to better outcomes with fewer resources [91][99]. - It highlights the importance of transparency in government spending and the need to address inefficiencies within federal programs, particularly in agencies like the IRS [100].