Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1534，下调28点；上一交易日中间价7.1506，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1747， 上日夜盘报收7.1750。 ...

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1535，下调12点；上一交易日中间价7.1523，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1611， 上日夜盘报收7.1717。 ...

人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升41点至7.1586，中间价升值至2024年11月8日以来最高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB to USD exchange rate closed at 7.1750, a decrease of 38 points from the previous night, with a trading volume of 39.718 billion USD, indicating significant market activity and potential implications for purchasing power and business operations [3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Impact - The depreciation of the RMB affects the purchasing power of consumers, making foreign goods more expensive for those planning to travel abroad or shop internationally [3]. - Export businesses may benefit from increased competitiveness in pricing, potentially leading to higher sales and foreign exchange earnings, while import businesses face rising costs, adding financial pressure [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Exchange rates are influenced by various factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, global economic conditions, and international political situations, suggesting a complex interplay that can lead to fluctuations [3]. - Continuous monitoring of financial news is essential for individuals to make informed decisions regarding spending and investment, helping to safeguard their financial interests amid economic changes [4].

6月23日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1710，调贬15个基点。前一交易日中间价报7.1695，在岸人民币 16:30收盘价报7.1837，夜盘收报7.1820。 ...

人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升31点至7.1772，中间价升值至2025年3月28日以来最高。 ...

6月10日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1840，调升15个基点。前一交易日中间价报7.1855，在岸人民币 16:30收盘价报7.1838，夜盘收报7.1785。 ...

从汇率折算因素来看，美元汇率的波动对外汇储备规模产生了影响。5月，美元指数出现一定程度的下跌，而非美元货币相对美元升值。5月美元指数由4月 底的99.64下行0.20%至 99.43，英镑兑美元升值0.92%至1.345，欧元兑美元升值0.2%至1.13。我国外汇储备中包含了一定比例的非美元货币资产，当这些非美 元货币兑换成美元时，由于汇率的变化，其价值相应增加，从而推动了外汇储备规模的上升。 资产价格变化也是重要原因之一。全球金融市场在5月出现了一定的波动，但整体上，债券、股票等资产价格有所上涨。我国外汇储备投资于多种资产，资 产价格的上涨使得外汇储备的账面价值增加，进而导致外汇储备规模上升。 浙商证券分析师测算：资产价格对本月储备是负向拖累，主要国家国债利率全面上行，5月末5年期美债收益率较4月末上行24BP至3.96%，5年期英债收益率 上升24BP至4.05%，5 年期德债收益率上升7BP至2.08%，债券收益率波动对外储的综合影响约-231.79亿美元。 近日，国家外汇管理局最新发布的统计数据显示，截至5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元，升幅为0.11%。 业内人士指 ...

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1865，上调21点；上一交易日中间价7.1886，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1890， 上日夜盘报收7.1760。 ...