在著名经济学家宋清辉看来，创纪录的政府「停摆」，进一步凸显美国经济衰退风险。受政府「停摆」影响，非农、 通胀等数据延迟或暂停发布，数据缺失使美联储失去对经济形势判断的基准，增加了政策决策的难度与不确定性。他 续称，美国的国际声誉同样受损，国际社会对美国政府的稳定性、财政治理能力产生忧虑，「政府『停摆』虽不会引 发系统性衰退，但暴露了美政府财政治理的结构性失灵。」 ●美国政府「停摆」43天，终于上周结束。 彭博社 香港文汇报讯（记者 倪巍晨 上海报道）美国总统特朗普在当地时间（下同）11月12日在白宫签署了国会两院通过的联邦政府临 时拨款法案，由此终结持续43天的史上最长政府「停摆」。分析师称，是次创纪录政府「停摆」，进一步凸显美国经济衰退风 险。短期看，由「停摆」引发的负面冲击将进一步显现，「停摆」对美国经济的利淡扰动恐难完全消除。 创纪录停摆突显美衰退风险 停摆成斗争筹码 削政策灵活性 宋清辉提醒，特朗普签署的「法案」属于临时性，由于美国保守派与温和派之间的斗争仍将继续，未来美国政府仍有再次「停 摆」的风险。他说：「明年是美国财政预算博弈高峰期，政治层面的博弈风险更高，『停摆』将成为美国政治斗争的筹码，并削 ...

罗默警告，受关税政策不确定性、人工智能领域投资过热等因素影响，美国经济近期面临衰退风险，巴 西应提前做好应对准备。 近期，美方对巴西输美产品加征40%关税，大部分巴西输美产品面临的关税税率高达50%。巴西总统卢 拉10日强调，巴西不会依附于任何国家，也不会受制于某位外国总统的情绪，国家间交往应建立在相互 尊重的基础上。 新华财经圣保罗10月14日电（记者陈昊佺）2018年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、美国经济学家保罗·罗默14 日在巴西圣保罗发表讲话，批评美国对巴西加征关税，并警告关税政策带来的不确定性可能使美国经济 陷入衰退。 巴西《圣保罗报》、247新闻网、环球网等主流媒体报道，罗默当天在一场活动中指出，美国总统特朗 普将关税作为惩罚巴西的手段，试图借此影响对巴西前总统博索纳罗相关案件的审理，这种做法侵犯了 巴西主权及其民众的权利。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

实际上，特朗普总统的一系列经济政策已经使美国经济面临着巨大的不确定性，美国国内的党争更加剧了这种 经济不确定性带给美国社会的动荡。如果再叠加可能出现的"黑天鹅事件"给美国经济带来的负面冲击，那么美 国经济的前景确实堪忧。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准 确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 作为美国重要的贸易伙伴的欧盟经济景气度也在下降。同日公布的欧元区10月ZEW经济景气指数也从前值26.1 大幅下降至22.7。如果欧盟经济出现萎缩，那么这也会间接波及到美国经济。 近期的一系列经济数据表明，美国经济的内外部环境都出现了不同程度的下行压力。在这样的背景下，如果特 朗普总统还要一意孤行地加剧与全球主要经济体的经贸摩擦，那么美国经济将面临衰退风险。 10月14日公布的数据显示，美国9月NFIB小型企业信心指数从前值100.8大幅下降至98.8。这反映出与美国就业 和消费关系甚密的小型企业经营出现了不振的信号。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting a target price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural increases in central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have risen 6% since August 26, breaking out of a trading range of $3,200 to $3,450, currently trading around $3,650 [1]. - The recent price increase is attributed to increased ETF holdings, enhanced speculative positions, and expectations of a resurgence in central bank demand after the summer lull [1][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to continue for three years, driven by emerging market central banks' gold allocation being significantly lower than that of developed markets [5]. - In July, global central bank and institutional demand for gold in the London over-the-counter market was 48 tons, below Goldman Sachs' forecast of an average of 80 tons per month for 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [4]. Group 3: ETF and Speculative Positions - The increase in ETF holdings contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to the recent 6% price rise, while speculative positions added about 1.2 percentage points [3]. - The report highlights that the anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy and a 30% risk of recession in the next 12 months will support ETF inflows [4]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Banks - The structural shift in global central bank gold purchases has increased nearly fivefold since 2022, with emerging market central banks actively diversifying their reserve assets [5]. - For instance, China's official gold reserves account for about 8% of its total reserves, significantly lower than the approximately 70% held by the U.S. and Germany, indicating room for growth [5].

Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% after seasonal adjustment, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, exceeding both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected 235,000 [1] - The market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, indicating a strong expectation for monetary easing [1][7] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Trends - Inflation data shows that CPI and core CPI growth rates align with expectations, suggesting limited impact from tariffs on overall prices, while certain goods like new and used cars and housing still exhibit price stickiness [2][3] - Despite stable overall inflation, specific categories such as clothing and energy have shown price increases, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market is cooling, with non-farm payrolls only increasing by 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI and jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs, reflecting investor concerns over employment data [9] - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario exists if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a deteriorating job market, which could limit the Federal Reserve's policy options [8] - The performance of financial markets post-rate cuts will depend heavily on the U.S. economy's ability to achieve a soft landing; otherwise, significant market adjustments may occur [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The main driver for the recent rise in gold prices is the increased certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside rising risks [8][13] - The steel industry is expected to see enhanced mid-term price support due to interest rate cut expectations and policy initiatives [17] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - Companies with self-owned gold mines are likely to see greater profit elasticity during rising gold prices, ensuring sustained performance growth. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zhuhai Group (600961, Buy) [3] - The recent gold price increase is attributed to the shift in dominant investors to U.S. domestic institutions, with a focus on economic recession risks, stock market volatility, and credit risks associated with the dollar [8][14][15] Steel Sector - Demand for steel is under pressure during the off-season, with a need to validate expectations for the peak season [17] - Overall inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have risen, indicating a need for structural improvement in demand [23] - Short-term steel prices are under downward pressure, but policy and demand improvements are expected to support a mid-term recovery [38] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply dynamics [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with July 2025 production and sales showing year-on-year growth of 22.53% and 19.30%, respectively [46] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel are showing divergence, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 4.21% week-on-week [51]

Group 1 - The Trump team is concerned about the potential consequences if the Supreme Court rules against them regarding large-scale tariffs, fearing significant economic repercussions [1][2] - Trump's tariffs are primarily borne by American importers, not foreign companies, leading to increased costs for U.S. consumers and businesses [1][4] - The core issue of the lawsuit involves the separation of powers in the U.S. Constitution, questioning the extent of presidential authority in imposing tariffs [1] Group 2 - If Trump loses in the Supreme Court, the U.S. Treasury may face over $210 billion in refund pressures from tariffs, creating a substantial fiscal burden [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that most regions report little economic change, with only a few showing moderate growth, highlighting a stagnating economy [4][6] - UBS warns of a 93% risk of recession in the U.S., describing the current economic situation as stable but high-risk, akin to high blood pressure [4][6] Group 3 - The Beige Book emphasizes price increases related to tariffs across all Federal Reserve districts, with rising input costs reported by nearly all businesses [6] - The U.S. economy is in a high-risk, low-growth "stagnation" state, with multiple indicators signaling increased recession probabilities [6] - The U.S. national debt is substantial, with interest payments being a significant burden that cannot be easily mitigated by external countries [8]

Market Movements - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.04%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] - European indices also saw positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.81%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.17%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.39% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.92% to $63.38 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.93% to $66.97 per barrel [3][4] Economic Concerns - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising as President Trump attempts to influence the Fed and push for interest rate cuts, leading to increased inflation trading [5] - UBS warned of a 93% risk of recession in the US, describing the current economic state as "stable but high risk" [5] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, complicating the Fed's goal of achieving a 2% inflation rate [6] Company News - Tesla announced the public launch of its Robotaxi service, expanding from a limited user base to a broader audience [9] - Apple plans to launch an AI-driven search tool next year to compete with OpenAI, integrating it into Siri and potentially other platforms [9] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue growth of 9.8% to $10.2 billion, but its Q3 revenue outlook is slightly below Wall Street expectations, causing a nearly 7% pre-market drop [10] - C3.ai's Q1 revenue fell to $70.3 million, down from $87.2 million year-over-year, leading to a pre-market drop of over 13% [11] - Figma's Q2 revenue growth of 41% to approximately $249.6 million was below analyst expectations, resulting in a pre-market decline of over 14% [11]

Group 1 - The recent A-share market rally is primarily driven by internal factors, particularly the phenomenon of residents moving their deposits, which is expected to continue [1] - The low interest rate environment, coupled with a calming global situation and supportive domestic policies, has led to a recovery in risk appetite within the A-share market [1] - The upcoming economic data releases, such as industrial output and retail sales, will be crucial in assessing the market's performance in September [2] Group 2 - The A-share market's risk appetite has rebounded ahead of the fundamental economic indicators, indicating a positive cycle [2] - The performance of various sectors in August, including semiconductors, energy metals, and software development, showcased a theme rotation driven by multiple factors [3] - Future investment opportunities can be identified through thematic growth rotation, focusing on domestic demand policies and technological trends [3] Group 3 - There is a belief that the global market is underestimating the risk of a U.S. economic recession, suggesting a cautious approach towards U.S. assets [4] - The current market conditions indicate that U.S. equities may be overvalued, with asymmetric risks involved [4] - A recommendation is made to differentiate between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with a more favorable view on short-term bonds [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin on the 15th of this month in Alaska is expected to discuss the Ukraine crisis, with market expectations being neutral to optimistic, potentially putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that recent US employment growth data has been significantly revised downward, suggesting a weak labor market that outweighs future inflation risks, leading to considerations for interest rate cuts, which could support higher gold prices [1] - Current market trading is primarily focused on the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a greater likelihood of gold prices maintaining an upward trend [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to remain weak due to an anticipated increase in production from oil-producing countries, which is likely to hinder price increases [3] - Although the US is currently in its demand peak season, it is nearing the end of this period, coupled with risks of an economic recession, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran's arrest of alleged Israeli intelligence agents, may influence oil prices, necessitating close monitoring of Middle Eastern developments [3] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is currently experiencing low-level fluctuations, with expectations of continued adjustment in the short term [5] - A recent rebound tested the 62-day moving average but failed to break through, indicating potential short-term downward risks [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index showed a significant increase in the previous trading day, closing with a bullish signal, suggesting a strong short-term outlook [6] - The index previously tested the 62-day moving average as support before rising, indicating a higher likelihood of further gains [6]