美联储理事米兰：不继续降息，美国经济或被推入衰退 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）最新表示，除非央行明年继续降低利率，否则美国将面临经济衰退的风险。当地时间周一（12月22日），米兰在 接受采访时说道："如果我们不下调政策立场，我认为确实会面临风险。"并补充称，他并不预期短期内会出现经济下行，但失业率上升应当促使美联储官员 继续降息。 12月23日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升49点至7.0523，中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 来源：新浪网 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月23日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升49点至7.0523，中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）最新表示，除非央行明年继续降低利率，否则美国将面临经 济衰退的风险。当地时间周一（12月22日），米兰在接受采访时说道："如果我们不下调政策立场，我 认为确实会面临风险。"并补充称，他并不预期短期内会出现经济下行，但失业率上升应当促使美联储 官员继续降息。 责任编辑：郭建 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月23日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升49点至7.0523，中间价升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 美联储理事米兰：不继续降息，美国经济或被推入衰退 美联储理事米兰：不继续降息，美国经济或被推入衰退 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）最新表示，除非央行明年继续降低利率，否则美国将面临经 济衰退的风险。当地时间周一（12月22日），米兰在接受采访时说道："如果我们不下调政策立场，我 认为确实会面临风险。"并补充称，他并不预期短期内 ...

美联储理事米兰警告称，如果美联储明年不继续降息，美国经济将面临日益严重的衰退风险。他认为失 业率可能已升至超出预期的水平，这些数据应促使美联储决策者转向鸽派。 米兰表示尚未决定在下次美联储会议上支持降息25个基点还是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息； 他此前已三次在FOMC会议上投票反对25个基点降息，主张50个基点。米兰辩护称全年CPI存在严重的 向上偏差，住房CPI受到政府关门的扭曲，认为剔除"幻影通胀"后，"潜在"通胀水平已接近美联储目标 2%的"噪音范围"内。 米兰一方面肯定鲍威尔在降息上的努力，另一方面又批评美联储在平衡物价与就业市场方面做得不够 好。 12月FOMC会议降息25个基点的决议遭到三票反对，暴露了决策层内部的巨大分歧。分歧主要源于一些 决策者更担心劳动力市场降温，另一些人则认为美联储应优先控制高于目标的通胀。会后预测显示，多 数官员预计明年仅再降息一次，六位官员倾向于维持利率不变。 ...

美联储理事米兰警告称，如果美国央行在明年不继续下调利率，可能会增加经济陷入衰退的风险。 他周一在接受采访时表示，尽管短期内并不预期经济会立刻下行，失业率上升的趋势，理应促使政策制 定者继续采取更偏鸽派的立场。 在谈及后续政策节奏时，米兰表示，自9月以来，美联储已累计降息75个基点，因此在下次会议上再度 一次性降息50个基点的必要性有所下降，但他尚未作出最终判断。"政策可能会从大幅调整，逐渐进入 更精细的微调阶段，只是目前是否已经到达这一阶段，还需要再观察几次降息效果。" 本月，美联储再次降息25个基点，但内部对未来路径分歧明显。多数官员预计明年仅再降息一次，近期 多位官员的公开讲话也释放出短期内按兵不动、等待经济前景更清晰的信号。 与此同时，部分地区联储主席对通胀仍高于2%目标近一个百分点表示担忧，而失业率上行又加剧了市 场对劳动力市场可能快速走弱的忧虑，使美联储在稳增长与控通胀之间面临更复杂的权衡。 米兰指出，近期就业数据已显示失业率"可能高于此前市场预期"，这类信号足以推动美联储政策继续向 宽松方向调整。自9月加入美联储理事会以来，米兰一直主张更大幅度的降息。他的任期将于明年1月结 束。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures products across multiple industries, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each product's market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends are detailed, with corresponding investment strategies proposed based on these analyses. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Tin: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in some areas like South China shows resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips. [2][36][39] - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening, and trading is fair. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market has rebounded from an oversold position. Short - term rebound is expected. [3][61][63] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils like palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have their own market characteristics and price trends. [4][80][82] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: A - share markets showed a mixed trend. Index futures declined, and the basis of expiring contracts converged naturally. [8][9] - News: Domestic fiscal revenue data was released, and overseas trade frictions emerged. [9][10] - Capital Flow: A - share trading volume was stable, and the central bank conducted net reverse - repo withdrawals. [10] - Investment Strategy: Given the unclear market trend, it is advisable to wait and see. [10] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with long - term bonds experiencing significant gains. [11] - Capital Flow: The central bank conducted reverse - repo operations, resulting in net withdrawals. [12] - Investment Strategy: The short - term upward trend is not solid. It is recommended to treat the market as a shock, with short - term trading being cautious. [13] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market: Fed officials signaled a dovish stance, driving the price of precious metals higher. Silver reached a new high. [14][15] - Outlook: Gold is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, while silver may face regulatory risks due to over - buying. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the long term. [16][17] 3.4 Shipping Index (European Routes) - Index: SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. [18] - Fundamentals: Container shipping capacity increased, while demand in some regions was weak. [18] - Logic: The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [18][19] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Inventories increased, and spot trading was average. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Alumina: The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with a reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. [23][25] - Aluminum: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support at 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [25][28] - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with a reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [29][31] - Zinc: The price center has adjusted downward, and the supply pattern is gradually tightening. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 22850 - 22950 yuan/ton. [32][35] - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions. [36][39] - Nickel: The price is expected to recover slightly in the short term, with a reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [39][42] - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [43][45] - Lithium Carbonate: The price rose significantly due to news, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions. [47][50] - Polysilicon: The futures price rose to a new high, but the supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a reference range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. [53][54] 3.6 Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with 5 - month contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils focusing on the 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton ranges respectively. [55][57] - Iron Ore: The price is expected to rebound, with a recommended long - position strategy for the 2605 contract in the 730 - 800 yuan/ton range. [58][60] - Coking Coal: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [61][63] - Coke: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [64][66] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybean market lacks highlights, and the domestic soybean meal market has pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of a decline in the 1 - 5 positive spread. [67][69] - Live Pigs: The market has a sentiment of withholding sales, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the epidemic. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to adjust narrowly. [70][71] - Corn: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and downstream replenishment. [72][74] - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to be weak. [75] - Cotton: The US cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price increase is expected to slow down. It is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 14050 - 14100 yuan/ton. [76][78] - Eggs: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [79] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils have their own market characteristics. [4][80][82] - Red Dates: The new - year supply has a slight reduction, and the demand needs to be released. The futures price is expected to be weak, and the spot price is stable. [84] - Apples: The market is light, and it is recommended to close long positions. [85] 3.8 Energy Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at a low level. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton range. [87][88] - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the medium - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton range and consider a long - position strategy for the TA5 - 9 spread. [89][90] - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. It is recommended to take a similar strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies. [91][92] - Bottle Chip: The inventory decline supports the processing margin. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart and commissioning of devices. It is recommended to sell the PR2602 - P - 5500 option on rallies. [93][94] - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell the EG2605 - C - 4100 option on rallies. [95][97] - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has limited downward space. It is expected to fluctuate in the 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton range. [98] - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price has limited upward drive. It is expected to fluctuate in the 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton range. [99][100] - LLDPE: The trading has weakened, and it is recommended to wait and see. [101][102] - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit. [102] - Methanol: The spot and basis are strengthening, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3][103][104] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. [104][105] - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news, but the supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [106] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, and the price has no continuous upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies after a rebound. [107][109] - Glass: The spot price has stabilized, but the market still has pressure. It is recommended to close long positions. [107][110] - Natural Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate in the 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton range, and it is recommended to wait and see. [110][113] - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 11200 yuan/ton for the BR2602 contract. [113][115]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is experiencing a paradox where official data shows an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, while there is a simultaneous surge in layoffs, indicating underlying economic issues [1][3][5]. Employment Data Discrepancies - The ADP report indicates a net addition of 42,000 jobs in October, ending a two-month decline, but reveals an average weekly layoff of 11,250 workers, totaling 45,000 layoffs for the month [5][9]. - The quality of jobs is deteriorating, with high-paying positions being cut in sectors like automotive and finance, while low-wage, unstable part-time jobs are increasing in areas like Amazon warehouses and gig platforms [5][7]. Structural Adjustments in the Job Market - Major companies like Ford and Citigroup are laying off thousands of high-salaried employees due to pressures from electric vehicle transitions and poor investment banking performance [5][9]. - The government shutdown has led to a reliance on non-official data sources like ADP, which may not accurately reflect the employment situation, particularly for small businesses and the gig economy [7][9]. Economic Implications of High Interest Rates - The current employment crisis is a direct result of high interest rate policies, with planned layoffs reaching a 20-year high, raising concerns about a potential recession [9][11]. - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: maintaining high rates could lead to a significant rise in unemployment, while lowering rates too soon could reignite inflation [11][13]. Future Projections - Market pressures may force the Federal Reserve to shift its stance, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by Q1 2026 as investors seek safety in U.S. Treasury bonds [11][13]. - A mild recession is anticipated in the first half of 2026 due to the lagging effects of previous rate hikes, which could further increase unemployment and put pressure on the stock market [13][14]. - Ongoing political and geopolitical risks, including a prolonged government shutdown and international conflicts, could exacerbate economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures [14][16].

Core Insights - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings by major countries, particularly China, is gaining attention as it reflects a shift in global economic strategies [1][3]. Group 1: China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's U.S. Treasury holdings have decreased to approximately $1 trillion as of April this year, marking a historical low [3]. - In April alone, China significantly reduced its holdings by $46.2 billion, and from December last year to March this year, the total reduction reached $31.3 billion [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Reducing Holdings - The aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve since 2022 have raised concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, with the two-year Treasury yield rising to 3.22% and the ten-year yield reaching 3.31% [7]. - The total U.S. national debt has surged past $30 trillion, exceeding the country's GDP, raising alarms about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [7]. - High inflation rates in the U.S., which fluctuated from 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April and rebounded to 8.6% in May, are prompting countries to reduce their Treasury holdings to mitigate potential default risks [9]. Group 3: Global Trends in Treasury Holdings - Japan has also been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings, selling $73.9 billion in March and another $14.9 billion in April, bringing its total holdings down to approximately $1.2 trillion [5]. - The UK reduced its holdings by $22.2 billion in April, contributing to a total reduction of $83.5 billion among China, Japan, and the UK in that month [5].

Core Viewpoint - The record government shutdown in the U.S. has highlighted the risk of economic recession, with significant negative impacts expected on economic data and policy decision-making [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The government shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history, and has been estimated to cause a loss of approximately $1.5 trillion [3][4]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the shutdown would result in a net loss of about $11 billion, with some canceled travel plans and federal contractors unable to recover all losses [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted signs of economic weakness in the U.S., predicting that GDP growth for the current quarter may fall below the previously forecasted 1.9% due to the impacts of the shutdown [7][8]. Group 2: Policy and Governance - The shutdown has raised concerns about the stability and fiscal governance of the U.S. government, with international observers expressing worries about its ability to manage fiscal policies effectively [1][7]. - The temporary funding bill signed by President Trump is seen as a stopgap measure, with ongoing political struggles between conservative and moderate factions suggesting a risk of future shutdowns [8]. - The shutdown has been characterized as a tool for political bargaining, potentially undermining the flexibility of fiscal policy in the future [8].

Core Viewpoint - Paul Romer, the 2018 Nobel Prize winner in Economics, criticized the U.S. for imposing tariffs on Brazil and warned that such tariff policies could lead to economic recession in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Policies - The U.S. has recently imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian products, with many facing tariffs as high as 50% [1] - Romer stated that these tariffs are being used as a punitive measure against Brazil, particularly in relation to the legal cases involving former President Bolsonaro [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Romer warned that the uncertainty stemming from tariff policies and overheating investments in artificial intelligence could pose a recession risk for the U.S. economy [1] - He advised Brazil to prepare for potential economic impacts due to these U.S. policies [1] Group 3: Brazil's Response - Brazilian President Lula emphasized that Brazil will not be dependent on any country and that international relations should be based on mutual respect [1]

Core Points - The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index in the U.S. dropped significantly from 100.8 to 98.8 in September, indicating weak performance among small businesses closely tied to employment and consumption [2] - The Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index also fell from 26.1 to 22.7 in October, suggesting a decline in economic sentiment in the EU, which could indirectly impact the U.S. economy [2] - Recent economic data indicates that both the internal and external environments for the U.S. economy are facing downward pressure, raising concerns about potential recession risks if trade tensions escalate under President Trump's policies [2] Economic Indicators - The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index decreased by 2 points, reflecting a concerning trend for small businesses [2] - The Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index saw a decline of 3.4 points, highlighting a decrease in economic optimism within the EU [2] Political and Economic Context - President Trump's economic policies have contributed to significant uncertainty in the U.S. economy, exacerbated by domestic political strife [2] - The potential for "black swan" events could further negatively impact the U.S. economic outlook, raising alarms about future economic stability [2]