特朗普称："我认为会有一次大幅降息。"若成真，这将是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息。 美联储将于9月16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储届时将开启新一轮降息。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣 布"大幅降息"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, aims to reassure concerns about potential government pressure on the Fed's independence during his upcoming Senate Banking Committee hearing [2][3] Group 1: Miran's Position and Responsibilities - Miran emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence in preventing economic downturns and inflation, stating that he will work to maintain this independence if appointed [2] - He commits to making policy decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and the long-term health of the economy, adhering to Congress's goals of low inflation and a healthy labor market [2] - Miran raises questions about the Fed's regulatory activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly regarding the composition of its balance sheet [2] Group 2: Context and Implications - Miran's potential appointment comes at a sensitive time for the Fed, which has faced pressure from Trump for not significantly lowering interest rates as expected [2][3] - If confirmed, Miran will fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, who resigned, and his term may be short-lived, potentially lasting only a few months [3] - There are speculations that Trump may be seeking to appoint a "shadow chairman" to influence the Fed's direction, as he has expressed a desire for a board majority that aligns with his views [3]

Core Viewpoint - Economists Marc Sumerlin and Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos are candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for significant interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Sumerlin suggests a 50 basis point rate cut is an "obvious choice" given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [1] - Zervos argues for decisive monetary policy easing to prevent labor market slowdown and potentially create more jobs, asserting that current monetary policy is too tight [1] Group 2: Political Context - The positions of both candidates align with President Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that a significant interest rate cut next month does not seem appropriate [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects the Fed's cautious approach towards monetary policy adjustments [1] - The comments suggest a focus on economic stability rather than aggressive rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "dollar up, everything down" pattern, leading to a potential rise in risk assets that ignore fundamentals [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen has called for significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, suggesting a 50 basis point cut in September and a total reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [2] - Trump's stance is even more aggressive, advocating for a reduction of 300 to 400 basis points, which would effectively bring rates to zero [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September are now at 100%, with a total anticipated reduction of 62 basis points over the remaining meetings this year [3] - The Federal Reserve has pushed back against the idea of significant rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicating that a rate cut is not expected until 2025 [4] - The interplay between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve resembles a scripted performance, where the Treasury raises expectations while the Fed moderates them to prevent market overheating [4] Group 3 - Gold is showing signs of preparing for a new round of volatility, with recent price movements reflecting market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with three additional cuts anticipated due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and concerns surrounding Trump's latest Federal Reserve appointments [2] - The poor non-farm payroll data for July, along with significant downward revisions for May and June, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to increased recession fears and uncertainty regarding trade policies [2][3] - Trump's push for substantial rate cuts aims to reduce U.S. debt risks and stimulate exports, but such cuts could lead to high inflation, a depreciating dollar, and increased import prices, complicating the economic landscape [3][4] Group 2 - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in September and the fourth quarter is higher, but the probability of three cuts remains uncertain unless employment data worsens significantly [4] - The strength of the U.S. stock market is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as evidenced during the subprime and COVID-19 crises [4][5] - High interest rates from the Federal Reserve are currently restraining inflation and suppressing stock market bubbles, while also attracting international arbitrage funds, thus maintaining liquidity in the U.S. market [5]

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：美国总统6月30日发函给美联储主席鲍威尔。 在"全球央行利率"文件中，特朗普向鲍威尔谈及全球利率现状。 特朗普告诉鲍威尔"你（行动）太迟缓了……应该大幅降息"。 ...