Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil products, released on May 9, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is dominated by the supply - surplus pressure brought by OPEC+ production increases. Although the announced June production increase by the OPEC+ meeting meets market expectations, the clearer production - increasing tendency for the future has a significant impact on market sentiment, intensifying the medium - to - long - term crude oil surplus expectation. It is expected that oil prices will operate weakly after the holiday [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From April 29 to May 8, WTI crude oil price changed from $60.42 to $59.91, with a change of $1.84; BRENT crude oil price changed from $64.25 to $62.84, with a change of $1.72; DUBAI crude oil price changed from $67.78 to $63.00, with a change of $1.47 [3] - **Related Product Prices**: SC price change was - 7.20; OMAN price changed from $66.10 to $63.24, with a change of $1.76. Domestic gasoline price remained at 7800 yuan, with a change of 0 yuan; domestic gasoline - BRT changed by - 107 yuan. Japan naphtha - BRT changed by - 20.14; Singapore fuel oil 380CST changed by 0.8 [3] 2. Daily News - **Price Forecast Adjustment**: Citi lowered its short - term price forecast for Brent crude to $55 per barrel due to the potential US - Iran nuclear deal. The probability of a final agreement is estimated at 60%. If the agreement is reached, the price may fall to $50 per barrel; otherwise, it may rise to $70 per barrel or higher [3] - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's crude oil daily production in April decreased by 30,000 barrels to 26.6 million barrels per day compared to March [4] - **Company Decision**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion due to falling oil prices while keeping its production forecast unchanged. WTI crude has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60 [4] - **Sanctions**: The US Treasury added two individuals, several entities, and vessels to the new round of Iran - related sanctions [4] - **Production Plan**: Kazakhstan has no plan to cut oil production in May, with a daily production of 277,000 tons, the same as in April [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decrease; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 558,000 barrels per day to 6.056 million barrels per day. EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 0.937 million barrels) [5] - **China Market**: From April 24, the main refinery operating rate generally decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate rebounded. China's gasoline production decreased, and diesel production increased. The production and sales rate of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased and exceeded the balance. Gasoline and diesel prices dropped significantly, and middle - and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.06%, and diesel inventory decreased by 0.69%. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries declined [6] 4. Weekly Views - **Saudi Policy Change**: Saudi Arabia is reluctant to further cut supply to support the oil market and can handle long - term low oil prices, indicating a possible shift towards increasing production and expanding market share [6] - **OPEC+ Production Plan**: At the OPEC+ meeting on May 3, eight participating countries announced a production increase of 414,000 barrels per day in June. Considering compensation for production cuts, the actual increase in June may be 359,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate oil production increases before October and may gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day before November if the production cut situation of member countries does not improve [6]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Market Sentiment - The market's concerns over trade tensions have slightly diminished following Trump's announcement of a trade framework agreement with the UK, boosting optimism for future trade agreements [1][2] - The agreement includes expedited customs processes for US products and reduced barriers for billions of dollars worth of US agricultural, chemical, energy, and industrial goods, although a 10% baseline tariff remains [2][3] - This limited agreement has enhanced investor confidence, leading to expectations of more complex trade negotiations potentially reaching successful outcomes [2][3] Group 2: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices rebounded, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing at $59.91 per barrel, up 3.17%, and Brent crude oil at $62.84 per barrel, up 2.81% [1] - The tightening supply expectations due to US sanctions on Iranian exports have contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices [1][4] - Citigroup analysts have adjusted their short-term Brent oil price forecast from $60 to $55 per barrel, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $60 per barrel, indicating potential price fluctuations based on geopolitical developments [2][5] Group 3: Soft Power and Market Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in international oil prices reflect the critical role of soft power in shaping market expectations and resource pricing [3][6] - The limited trade agreement with the UK signals the US's ability to reshape trade rules through soft power, despite retaining some tariffs [3][4] - The strategic use of soft power in energy sanctions against Iran demonstrates a combination of hard and soft power dynamics, influencing market perceptions and geopolitical alliances [4][6] Group 4: Market Predictions and Financial Analysis - Analysts at Citigroup have highlighted the importance of their predictive models in influencing market sentiment, quantifying geopolitical uncertainties into tradable financial variables [5][6] - The establishment of a price range of $50 to $70 per barrel for oil serves to create trading opportunities and provide a reference for policymakers [5][6] - The narrative framing around the potential outcomes of trade agreements simplifies complex geopolitical relationships, reinforcing the analytical authority of financial institutions [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has lowered its short-term price forecast for Brent crude oil to $55 per barrel due to the potential for a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement to be reached [1] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - Citigroup revised its three-month forecast for Brent crude oil from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel [1] - The potential easing of sanctions through a U.S.-Iran agreement could lead to increased market supply, potentially pushing Brent crude prices down to $50 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Implications - If the U.S.-Iran agreement is not reached and tensions regarding Iran's nuclear program escalate, oil prices could rise to $70 per barrel or higher [1] - Citigroup estimates a 60% probability that a final agreement will be reached [1]