Group 1 - The delayed employment report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates a complex labor market in early autumn, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while the August data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, marking the first negative value since January 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The September employment report presents conflicting signals, with strong job growth reported but an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September [5] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers seeking full-time employment, slightly decreased to 8% [5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7% [5] Group 3 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs in September, continuing a stable growth trend over the past year [7] - The restaurant and drinking places sector saw an increase of 37,000 jobs, while social assistance added 14,000 jobs [7] - Conversely, the transportation and warehousing sector lost 25,000 jobs, and federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a loss of 97,000 jobs since January [7] Group 4 - There is increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to lower interest rates in December, with some officials suggesting a rate cut may be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [9] - Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations for a rate cut in December significantly decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates rising to 67.2% [9] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve will face challenges due to the lack of key economic data, as the employment reports for October and November will be combined and released after the December meeting [11] - The absence of October unemployment data due to the government shutdown adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision-making process [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of recent U.S. employment data and market sentiment on gold prices, while emphasizing the importance of profit in investment analysis [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold is currently trading in a range-bound pattern, with prices around $4076 per ounce, influenced by strong U.S. employment data and a rising dollar index [1] - The U.S. September non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, indicating resilience in the job market [1] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, but a broader measure of unemployment decreased to 8%, reflecting a complex labor market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold's recent price action has been characterized by volatility, with key resistance at $4110 and support around $4030-4000 [2][4] - The article suggests a bearish outlook for gold, recommending short positions if prices fail to break above $4110 [2][4] - The trading strategy includes selling on rebounds near $4100-4105 and buying on dips around $4030-4035, with strict stop-loss measures advised [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenge in bridging internal divisions on interest rate paths without new economic data to reference [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Internal Divisions - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's recent speech highlights the dilemma of balancing persistent inflation risks against weakening employment [4]. - There is a significant divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to maintain or lower interest rates, with potential for at least three dissenting votes in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [8]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with implied probabilities dropping to approximately 45%, down from 60% a week prior and significantly lower than 90% during the October meeting [4][5]. - Jefferson reiterated that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," which may hinder U.S. economic growth, yet recent cuts have brought rates closer to a neutral zone [4]. Economic Data and Decision-Making - The absence of significant economic data due to government shutdowns has exacerbated divisions among policymakers, with some officials indicating they will oppose further cuts unless employment worsens or inflation improves [5][6]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with some officials fearing that new price pressures from tariffs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the next two years [6]. Diverging Perspectives - One faction of officials, including those appointed by Trump, is more focused on labor market conditions and believes that the risks of high inflation are overstated [7]. - Another group, including several regional Fed presidents and Governor Michael Barr, is increasingly worried about inflation risks and the implications of further easing monetary conditions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that companies are cautious about hiring and layoffs, with signs of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish wage growth suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8].

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos撰文指出，无论结果如何，美联储12月会议至少可能出现三张反对票—— 如果决定维持利率不变，特朗普任命的三位理事将投反对票；如果美联储降息25个基点，也至少会有三 人异议。 在缺乏新经济数据指导复杂决策的情况下，美联储官员们正面临一项挑战：解决利率设定方面的分歧。 "风险平衡的演变凸显出降息需循序渐进的必要性，"杰斐逊在堪萨斯城联储的一次讲话中表示。 除了这一观点，杰斐逊的言论既未支持长期暂停降息，也未为下月会议降息提供依据——这一决策正变 得异常具争议性。 作为美联储领导层成员，杰斐逊通常会强化主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的观点，鲍威尔预计 将在调和下月分裂的政策制定委员会方面发挥关键作用。 近几周，市场对美联储在12月9日至10日会议上降息的预期稳步下降，这在没有重大经济指标发布的时 期实属罕见。 芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）数据显示，周一早盘，市场隐含的降息概率约为45%，低于一周前的 60%，也低于10月28日至29日会议时的90%。 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）周一用实例展现了该央行的困境，他承认 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown, leading to a backlog of economic data that will be released starting next week, which is crucial for assessing the economic situation and informing the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1][2] - Key economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and third-quarter GDP, will be published, but the October CPI may be permanently missing due to data collection challenges [1][4] Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm employment report on November 20, followed by the September real wage data on November 21 [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce will publish the revised third-quarter GDP on November 26, along with personal income, spending, and PCE price index data for October [2][3] Impact on Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The unprecedented data void caused by the 43-day government shutdown has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding economic conditions [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that the absence of data may affect the committee's decisions, emphasizing a cautious approach in light of the data gaps [5] Challenges in Data Recovery - While the September employment data is expected to be released, the October data faces significant challenges, with warnings that some key indicators may never be published [6][7] - The collection of consumer price data is particularly problematic, as two-thirds of the price data requires in-person visits to stores, making it impossible to accurately report October CPI [7] Broader Economic Implications - The data void will impact social security payments linked to inflation and influence corporate hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season [8] - Businesses are already navigating uncertainties related to trade policies and consumer spending, and a return to normal data reporting may take several months [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly has indicated that a final decision regarding interest rates for December has not yet been made [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing economic conditions before making a decision on December's interest rates [1]

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is expected to end, leading to the release of official economic data, although this data may not be entirely reliable [1][4] Economic Data Release - Delayed data is anticipated to be released gradually, with Morgan Stanley economists predicting the September non-farm payroll report may be published shortly after the shutdown ends, as the data has already been collected [4] - The release of October data will take longer and may lack critical indicators such as the unemployment rate, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [4][9] Employment Trends - Current U.S. employment data is concerning, with Goldman Sachs economists estimating a decrease of 50,000 in non-farm payrolls for October, marking the second monthly decline since December 2020 and the largest drop in over five years [4] - A report from a job placement company indicated that planned layoffs in October exceeded 150,000, the highest level for that month since 2003 [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The incomplete and potentially unreliable official employment and other data may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts [9] - CPI and consumer data are also expected to be unclear, with Morgan Stanley economists suggesting that October CPI and consumption data may not be available before the Fed's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 [9] Inflation Data Concerns - UBS economists expressed pessimism regarding the release of the October CPI data, which was scheduled for November 13, as the Labor Statistics Bureau was closed for the entire month, resulting in no price data collection [12] - The October CPI data is crucial for calculating subsequent months' inflation indices, meaning that inflation data for November, December, and even April of the following year could be distorted [12] - There is a possibility that the October unemployment rate and CPI data may never be accurately published due to partial or complete data collection failures [12]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold futures opened at $3,992.40 per ounce, nearly unchanged from the previous day's close of $3,992.90, with prices rising above $4,000 in early trading [1] - The price of gold futures has increased by 62.4% compared to one year ago, with a 0.8% increase from the previous week and a 1.6% increase from the previous month [4][8] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report indicated that the U.S. economy added 42,000 private jobs in October, following a decline of 29,000 jobs in the prior month [2] - A report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, the highest for that month since 2003, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] Group 3: Interest Rates and Gold Demand - Gold demand typically increases when interest rates fall, as gold does not earn interest [3] - Current projections show a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again in December [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on October 30, aligning with market expectations, but the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is significantly disrupting monetary policy formulation [1] - The shutdown has led to the inability to release key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which hampers the Fed's decision-making process due to a lack of complete information [1] - If the government shutdown does not cause further disruptions, the Fed may resume receiving employment and inflation data, which could influence their decision to maintain interest rates if the job market improves or inflation rebounds significantly [1] - There remains a possibility of a rate cut in December despite the current situation [1]