EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.4% | 32.5% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.1% | 64.7% | 49.6% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.9% | 34.0% | 17.3% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ADP数据公布前 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为34% 金十数据7月30日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.9%，降息25个基点的概率为2.1%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为34.0%，累计降息25个基点的概率为64.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.4%。 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD exchange rate at 7.1441, an increase of 70 points [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 2.6% [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 34.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 63.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 1.7% [4]

按常理而言，这种异议通常会被视为美联储立场转鸽的信号，预示下一次会议可能降息。但Sevens Report Research编辑Tom Essaye在周二的一份报告中指出："现在并非正常时期。" 尽管美股在夏季强劲反弹，周二略有回落，标普500指数结束连续六个创历史新高的交易日，微跌 0.30%；道琼斯指数下跌0.46%，仍接近去年12月创下的历史高点。 他表示，如果沃勒或鲍曼投出反对票，市场可能不会给予太多关注，原因在于这两位理事都被视为鲍威 尔可能的继任者。鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年5月结束，而沃勒和鲍曼此时表态支持降息，容易被市场 解读为是为争取总统好感而做出的"政治举动"，而非真正基于经济数据的判断。 "他们投反对票的真实动机是否是政治操作其实并不重要，"Essaye指出，"重要的是市场如何看待这个 行为。"他还强调："如果有媒体报道称这些异议代表美联储开始转向鸽派，或者9月降息的可能性上 升，那就不必当真，它既不令人意外，也不会改变市场预期。" 事实上，自鲍威尔担任主席以来，美联储一直保持高度团结。据Pictet资产管理公司日本分部的策略师 Steve Donze在X平台发文称，从数据来看，FOMC在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the US dollar is unlikely to be sustained following the US-EU trade agreement, as potential risks loom ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Monex Europe analysts suggest that the US Treasury's quarterly refinancing plan announced this week could lead to a bond market crash, which may weaken the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this Wednesday, but officials Bowman and Waller may cast dissenting votes, marking the first time in over 30 years that two officials disagree [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Given the upcoming risk events, there is a cautious outlook on the potential for a stronger dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged this week is 96.9%, indicating a strong likelihood of no immediate rate changes [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 3.1% [1] - For September, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 35.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 62.6% and a 50 basis point cut at 2.0% [1]

美联储本周持利率不变的概率为97.4% 金十数据7月28日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为35.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为62.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | | 0.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | | 1.6% | 28.9% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.6% | 62.4% | 50.5% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.4% | 35.9% | 19.8% | 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unusual visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve, where he urged Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting the tension between the two [1][3][4] - This visit marks the first time in nearly 20 years that a sitting U.S. president has officially visited the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the tradition of the Fed's independence from the White House [1] - During the visit, Trump expressed concerns over the $3.1 billion renovation costs of the Fed building, using it as a platform to criticize the Fed's management and budgetary decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Trump reiterated his desire for interest rate cuts, stating that he hopes to see rates come down, indicating a focus on monetary policy during his discussions with Powell [3][4] - Despite the tension, Trump described the conversation with Powell as "good" but did not disclose specific details due to the Fed's pre-meeting silence period [3] - The article notes that there is widespread expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year, although Powell remains cautious due to inflation concerns linked to Trump's tariff policies [4]

在全球金融市场的密切关注下，美联储主席鲍威尔于近日深夜发表了一席重要讲话，与此同时，中国资产展现出强劲的市场表现，共同编织出一幅复杂多变 的市场图景。 在市场层面，美股三大指数呈现出震荡分化的态势。纳指在盘初一度跳水跌超1%，但随后跌幅逐渐收窄。与此同时，中国资产却逆势走强，成为市场关注 的焦点。纳斯达克中国金龙指数直线拉升，涨幅显著。三倍做多富时中国ETF也大涨超3%，表现出色。 中概股方面同样呈现出全面上涨的态势。大全新能源大涨超16%，领涨中概股市场。蔚来汽车涨幅超过9%，百度和小鹏汽车也分别涨超3%。拼多多和唯品 会等企业的股价也实现了显著上涨，多只个股表现抢眼。 尽管市场对中国资产的表现充满期待，但掉期市场显示，美联储下周降息的可能性仍然很低。交易员们的定价押注显示，美联储在今年剩余时间内将总共降 息46个基点，这一水平与上周五相比几乎没有变化。对于美联储9月的利率决策，市场认为维持利率不变的概率为41.4%，而累计降息25个基点的概率则高 达57.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率则相对较低。 来源：http://www.cnu.com.cn/cellphone/202507/105971.html ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%；美联储9 月维持利率不变的概率为41.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.5%。 ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%；美联储9 月维持利率不变的概率为46.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.3%。（新华财经） ...