Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of global assets and identifies the best-performing safe-haven assets based on historical data analysis over the past 20 years, emphasizing the importance of risk-adjusted returns in investment strategies [4][21]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The recent market fluctuations have been more significant compared to previous years, with the A-share market performing relatively well, while the US stock market has experienced a notable decline of over 20% in the last two months [4][6]. - Long-term investors may view recent downturns as mere corrections, but those who entered the market in January may feel the impact of a 2.6%+ decline over a month [6]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Safe-Haven Assets - Important metrics for evaluating safe-haven assets include maximum drawdown, recovery time from drawdowns, and the probability of positive returns over various holding periods [11][12][13]. - The analysis includes various global stock markets, bond markets, commodities, and cash-like investments to determine their performance as safe-haven assets [14][15]. Group 3: Performance of Safe-Haven Assets - The analysis reveals that Chinese money market funds are the top-performing safe-haven asset, with only a 0.03% maximum drawdown and a 100% probability of positive returns over one year [19][21]. - In contrast, US short-term government bonds have a lower positive return probability of only 40% during low-interest periods, indicating their limited effectiveness as a safe haven [21]. Group 4: Comparison of Bonds and Gold - Chinese bonds exhibit a maximum drawdown of 14.52% with a high probability of positive returns over five years, while US bonds have a maximum drawdown of 51.76% and a less than 50% probability of positive returns annually [24]. - Gold has shown significant price increases recently but has also experienced substantial drawdowns in the past, highlighting the need for caution regarding its volatility [25]. Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The Indian stock market demonstrates the highest risk-return efficiency, with a 97.89% probability of positive returns over five years, outperforming US and Chinese markets [26][28]. - Emerging markets, such as Vietnam, show extreme volatility, with a maximum drawdown of 79.35%, indicating high risk for investors [29][30]. Group 6: Multi-Asset Strategy - A balanced risk parity strategy combining A-shares, Taiwanese stocks, US bonds, gold, and Chinese money market funds yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.134, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns compared to individual assets [34][35]. - This multi-asset approach provides stability and a high probability of positive returns over various holding periods, making it a viable long-term investment strategy [35].

作者：戴皇冠的小恐龙 来源：雪球 这个回顾分析文章 ， 本应该是在清明节期间发布的 ， 因为本大类资产配置组合创建于2024年4月3号 ， 到清明节正好1年 ， 但是在节日期间看到特朗普发起的关税贸易战 ， 就决定延期发布 ， 看看本策略在全 球激烈的贸易冲突中的表现如何 ， 用真金实银验证一下它的成色 ； 过去2周了 ， 情况大家也看到了 ， 现 在可以更好地看看该策略在突发黑天鹅事件的时候的表现了 ， 这也是该策略的目标之一 ： 对抗黑天鹅事件 ； 下文中 ， 整个时间区间为2024年4月3号至2025年4月18号 ， 不再另外说明 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 01 整个组合前后一共运行了13个月 ， 只有2个月的收益为负 ， 分别是24年的7月和25年的2月 ， 分别 是-0.3%和-0.09% ， 其他均为正收益 ， 胜率非常高 ， 持有体验非常好 。 截止到4月18号 ， 当天组合各资产权重如下 ： 1 ， A股 ： 9.00% ， 以红利低波资产为主 收益表现 。 先看收益 （ 组合收益计算为基金净值法 ） ： | | 创 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 鑫选ETF组合新高， 推荐关注消费ETF ——指数基金投资+ 2025年3月16日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 4. 市场表现复盘 PAGE 3 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 0 1 推 荐 关 注 消 费 E T F 1.1 鑫选ETF绝对收益策略 鑫选ETF策略样本外表现出色 数据来源：wind，华鑫证券研究 PAGE 5 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】本周市场成交依旧活跃，宽基指数中上证50和中证红利表现靠前，科创50跌幅较大- 1.76%，风格上大盘、红利占优。恒生科技收跌-2.59%，哑铃策略另一端港股高股息占优+1.38%。一级 行业中内需及顺周期大涨，科技主线回调，食品饮料、煤炭、有色、非银涨幅靠前，电子、计算机调整。 生育补贴政策密集出台，表征政策从前期过度关注制造业企业向关注居民部门需求、提振内需的 ...