花旗：将泰国2025年GDP增长预测从2.2%下调至2%，预计随着关税的实施，泰国今年下半年的GDP增 长将放缓至1%；预计泰国央行10月份将降息25个基点。 ...

据报道，花旗将泰国2025年GDP增长预测从2.2%下调至2%。 ...

智通财经5月20日电，花旗将泰国2025年GDP增长预测从2.2%下调至2%。 ...

巴西经济学家预测2025年GDP将增长2.02%，此前预估为2%；预测2026年为1.70%，此前预测为 1.70%。 ...

智通财经5月19日电，野村认为，近期中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展对中国经济而言是一大利好，尤其 是对第二季度经济而言。野村将中国第二季度GDP同比增长预测从3.7%上调至4.8%，并略微将第三季 度和第四季度增长预测分别从3.6%上调至4.0%，将全年GDP增长预测从此前的4.0%上调至4.5%。具体 而言，野村将2025年中国出口增长预测从-2.0%上调至0.0%，零售增速预测从3.5%上调至3.7%。 野村上调中国GDP增长预测 ...

欧盟委员会：将2025年欧元区GDP增长预测从11月的1.3%下调至0.9%，并预计2026年增长1.4%，此前 为1.6%。 ...

China and the US both lowered the "reciprocal" tariff rates significantly and agreed to continue discussions and negotiations (see our earlier report), possibly with the framework of Phase One Deal as the starting point. We estimate that the weighted average incremental US tariff rate on Chinese goods in 2025 YTD is around 30% (ad valorem, vs 96% before the de-escalation), which is still very damaging for China's exports and growth. There is still significant uncertainty around future US-China negotiations, ...

英国央行：预测2025年GDP增长为1%（2月预测为0.75%），2026年为1.25%（2月预测为1.5%），2027 年为1.5%（2月预测为1.5%）。 ...

英国央行预测2025年GDP增长为1%，2月预测为0.75%；2026年为1.25%，2月预测为1.5%；2027年为 1.5%，2月预测为1.5%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and the anticipated economic growth in 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Growth**: The second quarter growth in China may slow down by over 1 percentage point due to tariffs, with a projected GDP growth rate of below 4.5% for Q2, down from 5.4% in Q1 [1][18]. 2. **Stimulus Measures**: Beijing is expected to implement cautious and uneven stimulus policies, focusing on emerging industries and urban renewal investments, while gradually shifting towards consumer spending in the medium term [1][12]. 3. **Tariff Levels**: Current tariffs between the U.S. and China are deemed unsustainable, with effective U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 45% (up from 11% before 2025) [3][4]. 4. **Potential for Tariff Reduction**: There is a possibility of gradual tariff reductions as negotiations between the U.S. and China progress, which could alleviate some economic pressures [2][3]. 5. **GDP Forecast Adjustments**: If tariffs remain at current levels, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 may be adjusted downwards by 0.5 percentage points, with significant impacts on exports [4][11]. 6. **Investment Focus**: The Chinese government is likely to maintain a focus on investment-driven growth, despite calls for a shift towards consumption, due to perceived uncertainties regarding the multiplier effects of consumption policies [12][14]. 7. **Economic Stimulus Plans**: A total of 2 trillion RMB in central bank-approved stimulus measures is anticipated, although the implementation remains passive and reactive to external shocks [11][19]. 8. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The government aims to achieve high-quality growth through regulated local government investments and infrastructure upgrades, despite a decline in overall investment returns [15][16]. Other Important Content - **Employment and Domestic Spending**: The high tariffs are expected to have secondary effects on domestic employment and consumer spending, contributing to ongoing deflationary pressures [11][19]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and the effectiveness of stimulus measures [11][12]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Certain sectors, particularly those reliant on exports to the U.S., may face significant challenges due to the high tariffs and potential for further trade disruptions [4][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic growth, and government policy in China.