Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and the anticipated economic growth in 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Growth**: The second quarter growth in China may slow down by over 1 percentage point due to tariffs, with a projected GDP growth rate of below 4.5% for Q2, down from 5.4% in Q1 [1][18]. 2. **Stimulus Measures**: Beijing is expected to implement cautious and uneven stimulus policies, focusing on emerging industries and urban renewal investments, while gradually shifting towards consumer spending in the medium term [1][12]. 3. **Tariff Levels**: Current tariffs between the U.S. and China are deemed unsustainable, with effective U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 45% (up from 11% before 2025) [3][4]. 4. **Potential for Tariff Reduction**: There is a possibility of gradual tariff reductions as negotiations between the U.S. and China progress, which could alleviate some economic pressures [2][3]. 5. **GDP Forecast Adjustments**: If tariffs remain at current levels, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 may be adjusted downwards by 0.5 percentage points, with significant impacts on exports [4][11]. 6. **Investment Focus**: The Chinese government is likely to maintain a focus on investment-driven growth, despite calls for a shift towards consumption, due to perceived uncertainties regarding the multiplier effects of consumption policies [12][14]. 7. **Economic Stimulus Plans**: A total of 2 trillion RMB in central bank-approved stimulus measures is anticipated, although the implementation remains passive and reactive to external shocks [11][19]. 8. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The government aims to achieve high-quality growth through regulated local government investments and infrastructure upgrades, despite a decline in overall investment returns [15][16]. Other Important Content - **Employment and Domestic Spending**: The high tariffs are expected to have secondary effects on domestic employment and consumer spending, contributing to ongoing deflationary pressures [11][19]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and the effectiveness of stimulus measures [11][12]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Certain sectors, particularly those reliant on exports to the U.S., may face significant challenges due to the high tariffs and potential for further trade disruptions [4][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic growth, and government policy in China.

巴西经济学家：预测2025年GDP增长2%，此前预测为2%；预测2026年GDP增长率为1.70%，此前预测 为1.70%。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（4月29日） 6. 路透调查：2025年墨西哥经济增长预期为0.2%，2026年为1.4%（较一月调查的1.2%和1.8%有所下 降）。 1. 印度卢比兑美元升至年内最高点。 2. 美国财长：针对债务上限问题的"X日"将于近期公布。 3. 欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：利率路径取决于通胀。全球经济存在很多不确定性。 4. 欧洲央行管委雷恩：将密切监测市场以确保价格稳定和金融体系的稳定。 5. 新西兰财政部长：财政部门下调了2025年和2026年的GDP增长预测。 ...

新西兰财政部长：财政部门下调了2025年和2026年的GDP增长预测。 ...