利率预测

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美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari:预计今年将两次降息 首次可能在9月
news flash· 2025-06-27 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, suggests that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, with the first potentially occurring in September, while cautioning about the lagging effects of tariffs on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Kashkari has not adjusted his interest rate forecast for 2025 since December of last year [1] - He believes there is a possibility of two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in September [1] - Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is currently insufficient evidence to show that tariffs have impacted prices [1] - Kashkari expresses concern that there may still be a potential impact on inflation later this year due to tariffs [1]
挪威央行:预测利率在2025年底将降至4%以下,至2028年底将接近3%。预计通胀率将下降并在2028年接近2%。
news flash· 2025-06-19 08:13
Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank predicts that interest rates will fall below 4% by the end of 2025 and approach 3% by the end of 2028, with inflation expected to decline and near 2% by 2028 [1] Interest Rate Forecast - Interest rates are expected to decrease to below 4% by the end of 2025 [1] - By the end of 2028, interest rates are projected to be close to 3% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation rate is anticipated to decline and approach 2% by 2028 [1]
美联储主席鲍威尔:随着我们获得更多数据,利率预测的差异将会缩小。
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:53
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that as more data becomes available, the discrepancies in interest rate forecasts will narrow [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data to adjust its interest rate predictions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of data in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement suggests potential shifts in interest rate strategies based on upcoming economic indicators [1]
会前再“放风”?新美联储通讯社:今夜美联储点阵图或将巨变
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-18 13:14
Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on whether the median rate forecast from the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates one or two rate cuts in 2025, especially as the upcoming meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates [1][2] - The dot plot's predictions are based on economic forecasts that are highly uncertain, and small changes in these predictions can significantly reshape the Federal Reserve's policy narrative [2][3] - The Federal Reserve officials recognize the limitations of the dot plot and may consider reforms to their communication tools, potentially moving away from median predictions to provide a full range of forecasts [1][4] Group 2 - The dot plot's overemphasis reflects the lack of suspense in the current meeting, but this obsession has reached an absurd level given the inherent uncertainty in the economic forecasts [2][3] - A small number of officials adjusting their predictions can lead to significant shifts in the median forecast, which can create confusion when unexpected economic results occur [3][4] - The debate over the dot plot's effectiveness centers on whether it provides transparency or leads to confusion, with some suggesting a compromise of discontinuing the dot plot while still sharing a range of predictions [5][6] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly those from the Trump administration, complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to make accurate predictions, as higher tariffs introduce new inflation risks [6] - The labor market appears slightly weaker than a few months ago, contributing to the challenges in maintaining confidence in rate cut predictions [6]
今夜,美联储“点阵图”或将巨变
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-18 03:04
Core Insights - The focus on the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" reflects uncertainty regarding interest rate predictions for 2025, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates during the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The dot plot, which represents individual policymakers' predictions for year-end rates, may not accurately reflect economic conditions or the Fed's response to data [1][3] Group 1: Dot Plot Significance - The dot plot's median prediction for rate cuts could significantly influence market narratives, with a potential shift from two cuts to one if just two officials adjust their forecasts [2] - The dot plot has been criticized for creating confusion during unexpected economic conditions, as it cannot fully convey the inherent uncertainties faced by policymakers [3] Group 2: Potential Reforms - There is a growing sentiment among officials to reassess the dot plot's effectiveness as a communication tool, with suggestions to stop publishing it in favor of a broader range of predictions [3][4] - A compromise could involve discontinuing the dot plot while still providing a range of rate predictions and a "central tendency" value, which could mitigate overemphasis on median predictions [4] Group 3: Economic Considerations - Recent tariff policies have introduced variability into the Fed's predictions, with rising import tariffs posing new inflation risks and affecting confidence in rate cut timelines [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and labor market conditions has led to a cautious approach in maintaining rate predictions, as any adjustments could misrepresent the rapidly changing economic landscape [5]
新西兰联储主席霍克斯比:委员会成员对利率预测感到满意,但在时间点上存在差异。
news flash· 2025-05-28 03:37
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor, Hawkesby, indicated that while committee members are satisfied with the interest rate forecasts, there are differences in the timing of these predictions [1] Group 1 - The committee members express satisfaction with the overall interest rate predictions [1] - There is a noted divergence among members regarding the timing of the interest rate changes [1]
新西兰联储主席霍克斯比:利率预测范围足够宽泛,使我们在下一次会议的下一步行动方面没有偏向任何一方的倾向。
news flash· 2025-05-28 03:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate forecast range is broad enough to avoid bias in the next meeting's actions [1]
高盛:宏观概览_最新观点与预测
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-22 05:50
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report raises end-2025 US 2y/10y yield forecasts to 3.9%/4.5% from 3.3%/4.0% due to a larger-than-expected decline in US-China tariffs [3]. - It anticipates global real GDP growth to slow to 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs [3]. - The report expects US real GDP growth to decelerate to 1.0% in 2025, with a 35% probability of entering a recession within the next 12 months [3]. - In China, real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% year-on-year in 2025, despite ongoing challenges from higher US tariffs and domestic issues [3][13]. - The Euro area is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, amid elevated trade policy uncertainty [3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.3% for 2025, with US GDP growth at 1.0% and China at 4.6% [15]. - Core inflation in the US is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year by the end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs [3]. - The unemployment rate in the US is projected to increase to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue rate cuts until the policy rate reaches 1.75% in July 2025 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US policy and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding US-China relations and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East [13]. - It notes that uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy poses significant risks to both the US and global economies [13].