Market Overview - Japanese stocks reached a new record, with the Nikkei 225 index soaring almost five percent on Monday and continuing its rise on Tuesday, driven by the election of pro-stimulus advocate Sanae Takaichi as the expected new prime minister [1][2] - The yen weakened as investors speculated on the likelihood of the Bank of Japan continuing its interest rate hikes, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2] Economic Policy Implications - Takaichi's election is seen as a positive development that removes uncertainty regarding Japan's policy direction, with expectations of continued fiscal support and ultra-easy monetary policy [2][3] - Analysts believe that this continuity will prevent abrupt tightening and promote ongoing coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan [3] Technology Sector Developments - The announcement of a partnership between Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and OpenAI to develop AI data centers contributed to positive market sentiment, following a significant contract between OpenAI and Nvidia worth over $100 billion [3] - OpenAI also secured deals with South Korean semiconductor companies Samsung and SK hynix for chips and equipment for its Stargate project, further boosting the tech sector [4] Regional Market Performance - Gains in Japanese stocks contributed to positive performance across most of Asia, with markets in Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila, and Jakarta all showing increases [5] - The tech sector led the global market advance, with notable gains in Tokyo-listed companies such as Advantest and Renesas, as well as SoftBank and TSMC [4] Precious Metals and Commodities - Gold prices reached a new peak of $3,977.44, nearing the $4,000 mark, amid concerns over the US government shutdown and political instability [5][6] - The allure of gold as a safe-haven asset is heightened by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing political crises in the US [6] Cryptocurrency Market - The positive sentiment in equity markets extended to the cryptocurrency sector, with Bitcoin hitting a record high of $126,251 [7]

Macro Economic Context - U.S. services activity unexpectedly slowed in September, with the ISM services PMI dropping to 50, indicating a potential for near-term Fed rate cuts [1] - The labor market is also showing signs of weakness, with Core PCE inflation at 2.9%, the highest level in 30 years, increasing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts [2] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - The shift in macroeconomic expectations is seen as a bullish catalyst for risk assets, including Bitcoin, with analysts discussing a potential rally to $150K [2][3] - Bitcoin has already rallied to a 50-day high of $123,841, gaining over 11% in October [2] Institutional Interest and Market Structure - Major banks and research desks have turned bullish on Bitcoin, with Standard Chartered predicting a potential rise to $135K soon and possibly $200K by year-end [4] - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $1.08 billion in volume over four days, indicating robust institutional inflows, while Bitcoin Open Interest reached an all-time high of $45.3 billion [6] Long-term Holding Trends - There is a rising share of long-term holders in the Bitcoin market, with many having held their assets for 18 months to two years, shifting market structure towards more durable demand [5][6]

Market Overview - European stocks closed positively, with the pan European Stoxx 600 climbing 0.78%, Germany's DAX gaining 1.28%, and France's CAC 40 ending up 1.14% [1] - Optimism regarding potential monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and advancements in artificial intelligence outweighed concerns about a partial U.S. government shutdown [1] Country-Specific Performance - In the UK market, Tesco's shares rallied by 5.3% after raising its full-year profit forecast, while 3i Group surged 4.7% [2] - In Germany, Siemens, Siemens Energy, and Zalando saw gains between 3.4% and 4.3%, while other major companies like Beiersdorf and Infineon climbed 1.3% to 2.4% [5] - French automaker Stellantis jumped nearly 8% due to stronger-than-expected U.S. sales figures, easing tariff concerns [6] Company-Specific Movements - Rentokil Initial, Croda International, and several others gained between 1.5% and 2.7% [3] - Experian's shares tumbled 4.2% following a new program announcement by Fair Isaac that could impact credit bureaus' profitability [4] - Worldline shares increased by 7.3% after entering a strategic partnership with Chinese payment provider YeePay [8] Sector Performance - In the chemicals sector, BASF moved up after confirming its 2028 financial targets, while other companies like LVMH and Schneider Electric gained between 2% and 4% [7] - Several companies, including BT Group and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, saw declines of 2% to 3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Vanguard has launched a new low-cost emerging markets ETF, the Vanguard Emerging Markets ex-China ETF (VEXC), which is timely given the increasing investor interest in emerging markets and potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Fund Details - VEXC is offered with a low expense ratio of 0.07%, significantly lower than the ETF Database Category Average of 51 basis points and the FactSet Segment Average of 46 basis points for similar funds [2] - The fund tracks the FTSE Emerging ex China Index, providing a comprehensive measure of performance for large and mid-cap companies in emerging markets, excluding China [3] - The fund is designed to complement existing U.S. equities exposure and can work alongside other international funds for broader diversification [2] Group 2: Market Context - The current market environment, characterized by global de-dollarization and monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, makes emerging market exposure appealing, especially as these assets are often linked to the strength of local currencies [3] - Investors are increasingly seeking tailored exposure to emerging markets without the risks associated with Chinese equities, which are facing economic and geopolitical challenges [4] Group 3: Management and Advisory - The fund is advised by the Vanguard Equity Index Group (EIG), known for its leadership in equity indexing, with portfolio managers including Michael Perre, Jeffrey Miller, and John Kraynak, CFA [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the monetary policy and bond market in China, specifically focusing on the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Government Bond (CGB) market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **PBOC's Easing Bias**: The PBOC maintained an easing bias during the Q3 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, emphasizing the effective implementation of existing measures. This aligns with the Q2 Monetary Policy Report, indicating limited appetite for near-term easing [1][2][2]. 2. **Economic Assessment Downgrade**: The PBOC downgraded its economic assessment, changing its language from "showing positive momentum" to "making strides while maintaining stability." This shift has led to increased expectations for monetary easing in Q4, particularly around the late-October Politburo meeting [2][2][2]. 3. **Expected Policy Cuts**: The baseline expectation is for a dual cut in Q4, consisting of a 10 basis point policy rate cut and a 50 basis point reduction in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), as year-over-year growth is projected to decelerate sharply towards 4% [1][2][2]. 4. **Data-Dependent Decision Making**: The PBOC's emphasis on data dependency leaves open the possibility of no action if full-year growth remains on track for the "around 5%" target [1][2][2]. 5. **CGB Market Dynamics**: The recent sell-off in the CGB market is attributed to technical and regulatory factors rather than a shift in macro fundamentals. Temporary pressures from potential tax and redemption rule changes have pushed yields above fair-value anchors [1][2][2]. 6. **Potential for CGB Purchases**: There is a lower bar for the PBOC to resume CGB purchases, but there is still little urgency. The PBOC had initiated CGB purchases last August to expand its liquidity management toolkit [3][3][3]. 7. **Regulatory Changes Impacting CGB**: Speculation regarding changes in tax treatment and new redemption fee rules for bond funds has contributed to the recent CGB sell-off. The removal of VAT exemptions on interest income from newly issued government bonds has raised concerns among investors [7][7][7]. 8. **Redemption Fee Structure**: Proposed draft rules would impose tiered redemption fees on bond funds, which could further reduce the appeal of these funds for institutional investors [9][9][9]. 9. **Market Stabilization Expectations**: If the sell-off in the CGB market continues, it is anticipated that the PBOC would intervene to prevent an abrupt rise in bond yields [7][7][7]. Other Important Considerations - The PBOC's performance evaluation for primary dealers, mainly large banks, is expected to help stabilize the bond market [7][7][7]. - About 80% of this year's government bond quota has already been issued, indicating less funding pressure in Q4 compared to the 2023-24 period [7][7][7]. - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions [5][5][5].

Core Insights - September 2025 marks a significant period for precious metals, with gold surpassing $3,700 per ounce and silver reaching $46.04 per ounce, driven by Federal Reserve monetary easing, inflation concerns, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions [1][2][35] Market Performance Overview - Gold has seen a remarkable rally, trading at approximately $3,796.90 on September 23, 2025, representing a 44% increase from September 2024 [2] - Silver has outperformed gold, reaching a 14-year high of $44.11 on September 22, 2025, with a year-to-date gain of over 50% [4][5] Gold and Silver Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio is currently around 86:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued compared to gold, with potential for significant appreciation if the ratio normalizes to historical averages [6][7][38] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and projected future cuts are expected to support precious metals prices, as gold typically performs well during periods of monetary easing with inflation above 2% [8][10][11] Central Bank Activity - Central banks added 166 tonnes of gold in Q2 2025, reflecting a 33% decline from Q1 but still 40% higher than the 2010-2021 average, with Poland being the largest net purchaser [14][15][16] - The shift towards gold by central banks is driven by geopolitical concerns and a desire to diversify away from traditional currency holdings [16][17] Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial applications are expanding, with the electric vehicle industry accounting for 2.9% of global silver demand and the solar industry for 16%, growing at 14% annually [18][19] - Supply constraints in silver production are expected to lead to a shortage, as major mining operations face challenges in increasing output [21][22] Mining Stocks and ETF Performance - Precious metals mining stocks have significantly outperformed the underlying metals, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index returning 52.65% year-to-date [23] - Despite strong performance, precious metals ETFs have seen outflows, indicating that many investors remain under-allocated to precious metals [25][26] Technical Analysis and Price Forecasts - Analysts have revised precious metals forecasts upward, with expectations for gold to reach $4,000 per ounce in 2026 and silver potentially testing all-time highs [32][40] - Key technical levels for gold are being monitored closely, with resistance at $3,750 and $3,850, and support at $3,550 and $3,450 [31] Investment Implications - Experts recommend a portfolio allocation of 10% to 15% in silver and no more than 20% in total for precious metals to provide diversification and inflation protection [34] - The current environment suggests a compelling contrarian opportunity for investors, as the sector remains under-owned despite strong fundamentals [39]

Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank maintained a slower pace of monetary easing by cutting its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point [1] Economic Conditions - Economic growth in Mexico remains sluggish [1] - Trade tensions with the US persist [1]

Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been rangebound for over ten weeks, influenced by long-term holders distributing and institutions accumulating, creating a deadlock [1][2][3] - Long-term holders (LTHs) started distributing Bitcoin when it broke above $110,000, but this distribution has decelerated recently [4][5] - Institutions, including ETF buyers and treasury companies, are aggressively buying Bitcoin, offsetting the supply from long-term holders [6] - Seasonality favors Bitcoin, with October and November historically being its two strongest months, averaging returns of +22.9% and +35.7% respectively [1][7] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun an easing cycle, cutting policy rates, which historically benefits Bitcoin as investors venture out on the risk curve [1][8] - Loosening credit conditions and a resilient economy are likely to drive another explosive leg higher for Bitcoin in Q4 [8][10] Technical Analysis - Long-term holder distribution is cooling, with net outflows from LTH supply slowing down [6] - Bitcoin's consolidation period suggests a potential for a violent breakout, with the odds favoring another leg higher in Q4 [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated its first rate cut of 2025, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, with indications of two more cuts by year-end, which may enhance growth prospects for quantum computing companies [1][3] - The Trump administration is reportedly developing a comprehensive quantum computing mandate to promote federal adoption of quantum systems and cryptographic advancements [2] - Companies like IonQ and Quantum Computing Inc. are expected to benefit from the combination of monetary easing and supportive policies, encouraging selective investment in these firms [3] IonQ Highlights - IonQ is enhancing its quantum computing capabilities through strategic acquisitions, including Oxford Ionics and Vector Atomic, aiming to scale to 40,000–80,000 logical qubits by 2030 while maintaining low costs and strong intellectual property [4] - The company is achieving practical quantum advantages across various sectors such as drug discovery and national security, with partnerships with major firms like AstraZeneca and AWS, which bolster revenue generation and market trust [5] - IonQ is developing a secure quantum Internet through Quantum Key Distribution products and partnerships, expanding its revenue streams into quantum networking and space integration [6] Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) Developments - QUBT is gaining traction in commercial applications, securing orders for quantum technologies from institutions like Delft University of Technology and a top U.S. bank, indicating real-world deployment of its products [10] - The company’s thin-film lithium niobate photonic chip foundry has become operational, enhancing the integration of photonic chips into quantum machines and creating new revenue opportunities across various sectors [11] - Despite progress, QUBT faces challenges related to the successful integration of its technologies and high cash burn, which may impact its execution and adoption [13] Comparative Analysis - IonQ has shown a significant stock performance increase of 94.3% recently, outperforming QUBT's 40.8% rise, indicating stronger market confidence in IonQ [15] - IonQ is viewed as a more compelling investment due to its diversified roadmap and tangible revenue opportunities, while QUBT is considered more speculative with execution risks and a high cash burn [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Sweden's central bank has reduced its key policy rate to 1.75%, indicating that this cut may represent the final monetary easing of the current cycle [1] Group 1 - The key policy rate has been lowered to 1.75% [1] - The central bank suggests that this rate cut could signify the end of the current cycle of monetary easing [1]