Economic Indicators - US Q2 Core PCE price index (年化季度环比初值) 为 2.5%，低于预期的 2.3%，前值为 3.5% [1] - US Q2 实际 GDP (年化季度环比初值) 为 3%，高于预期的 2.4%，前值为 -0.5% [1]

每经AI快讯，7月30日，德国第二季度未季调GDP同比持平，预期增长0.1%，前值为下降0.20%。 ...

每经AI快讯，7月30日消息，意大利第二季度GDP初值环比降0.1%，同比升0.4% ...

德国第二季度未季调GDP同比持平，预期增长0.1%，前值为下降0.20%。 ...

RT Daniel Priestley (@DanielPriestley)Billionaire hedge fund manager @RayDalio has said the UK is in a debt doom loop.The government has 101% of debt to GDP ratio. It spends 45% of GDP. It borrows to pay interest payments. This is wildly unsustainable and irresponsible.The doom loop bit happens when the government raises taxes to fund debt, higher taxes reduce growth, reduced growth reduces investment, reduced investment causes wealth creators to leave and the 1% who pay 30% of the taxes pull away from the ...

SHMET 网讯：美国经济第二季度增速可能反弹，但进口波动扭曲数据真相，消费者支出仅温和增长，企业设备投资停滞，这些迹象显示经济健康度被 严重高估。 美国商务部将于周三发布的GDP初值报告将再现一季度（1-3月）的贸易数据失真现象——当时GDP出现三年来首次萎缩。经济学家指出，美国总统特 朗普的保护主义贸易政策（包括全面加征关税与暂缓提高税率）导致经济脉搏难以准确捕捉。 桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利（Stephen Stanley）直言："连续两个季度的GDP总体数据都无法反映真实经济图景，特朗普政府不可 预测的关税策略已产生广泛涟漪效应，企业界因此陷入集体谨慎。" 路透调查显示，美国二季度GDP年化增速或达2.4%（一季度为下降0.5%），经济总量有望首次突破30万亿美元（未通胀调整）。但周二最新数据促使 部分经济学家将预测上调至3.3%——6月商品贸易逆差收窄至近两年最低，库存微增。 贸易在第一季度使GDP减少了创纪录的4.61个百分点。尽管预计会出现逆转，但部分增长可能被低库存所抵消，而低库存是外国商品流入减少的结果。 贸易和库存是GDP中最不稳定的组成部分。库存曾在今年第一季度为GDP ...

Group 1 - The upcoming GDP data may show a rebound, but trade policy disruptions and structural weaknesses are masking true growth momentum [1] - A survey indicates that after a 0.5% contraction in Q1, the annualized GDP growth for April to June could reach 2.4%, with some institutions raising expectations to 3.3% due to revised trade and inventory data [1] - The contribution of trade to GDP saw a record decline of 4.61 percentage points in Q1, and while some reversal is expected in Q2, low inventory levels due to decreased import flows are dampening the positive effects of trade growth on GDP [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, is expected to show only a modest recovery after stagnation in Q1, while business investment is likely to remain weak [2] - The "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over ten years, with only a 0.5% average annual increase in real GDP, raising questions about the effectiveness of the policy [2] - The labor market is a critical observation point, with expectations that as long as layoffs do not significantly increase, the economy may maintain growth in the second half of the year, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of final sales to domestic private buyers is expected to be lower than Q1's 1.9%, indicating weak terminal demand [3] - Balancing trade protection with economic growth presents a challenge for policymakers and businesses alike [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, reaching $86 billion [1] - In June, total U.S. imports decreased by 4.2% to $264.2 billion, with consumer goods imports hitting the lowest level since September 2020, and industrial goods imports at a new low since 2021 [2] - Exports saw a slight decline of 0.6% in June, indicating a mixed performance in trade [2] Group 2 - The improvement in trade data has led some economists to revise their forecasts for U.S. GDP in the second quarter, suggesting a potential reversal of trade distortions that negatively impacted GDP earlier in the year [2] - U.S. manufacturers are still facing uncertainties due to changing tariff policies, with risks of significant tax increases if agreements are not reached by the upcoming deadline [2] - More comprehensive trade data for June, including the balance of services, is scheduled to be released on August 5 [2]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached intra-day record highs but closed in the red, with the Dow down 204 points (-0.46%), S&P 500 down 18 points (-0.30%), Nasdaq down 80 points (-0.38%), and Russell 2000 down 13 points (-0.61%) [1] - Trade deals are progressing but lack the strength to drive the market higher, with Q2 earnings showing some weaknesses outside of Big Tech [2] Federal Reserve Policy - A new announcement on Fed policy is expected, with the current interest rate of 4.25-4.50% likely to remain unchanged for the fifth consecutive FOMC meeting [3] - Some analysts anticipate dissent among Fed members regarding the need for rate cuts despite current unemployment at +4.1% and inflation at +2.7% [3] Earnings Reports - **Starbucks (SBUX)**: Reported Q3 earnings of $0.50 per share, missing the consensus of $0.65, attributed to a one-time charge of $0.11. Revenues were $9.50 billion, exceeding expectations of $9.30 billion. Same-store sales fell -2% compared to a -1.3% consensus [4][5] - **Visa (V)**: Reported earnings of $2.98 per share, beating expectations of $2.86, with revenues of $10.2 billion surpassing the $9.87 billion forecast. Despite strong performance, shares fell -3% in after-hours trading [6] - **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: Reported Q2 earnings of $55.40 per share, exceeding the $50.59 estimate, with revenues of $6.8 billion above the $6.56 billion consensus. Gross bookings reached $46.7 billion [7] - **Mondelez (MDLZ)**: Reported earnings of $0.73 per share, beating estimates by $0.05, with revenues of $8.98 billion exceeding the $8.88 billion expectation. The company faced challenges from rising cocoa prices and tariffs [8] Upcoming Market Events - The earnings season is expected to peak with reports from major companies like Microsoft and Meta Platforms, along with others such as Ford and Qualcomm [9] - Private-sector payroll data from ADP is anticipated, with a consensus of +64K jobs for July, following a previous decline of -33K [10] - Q2 GDP is projected to rebound to +2.3% from Q1's -0.5%, influenced by tariff policies and economic outlook improvements [10]

After the big tariff announcement, something happened that shocked economists. And it wasn't the stock market dropping. It was the value of the dollar dropping.Usually, in times of market turmoil, it increases because investors are flocking to the US for safety. That national debt was also one of the main reasons the US's credit rating was downgraded soon after. Congress spends more than it brings in through tax revenue.For 20 years, we've had a budget deficit. 2024's $1.8% $8 trillion deficit was added to ...