Group 1 - Tokyo's inflation rate shows signs of slowing for the first time in four months, primarily due to a slowdown in energy price growth and the Tokyo government waiving water fees for some households [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food in June increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly below economists' forecast of 3.3%, while the overall inflation rate decreased from 3.4% in May to 3.1% [1] - Electricity prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, significantly down from 10.8% the previous month, while gasoline prices fell by 1%, contrasting with a 6.3% increase in the prior month [1] Group 2 - Despite the inflation rate retreating, price increases remain above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, raising market expectations for a potential interest rate hike [1] - There are internal divisions within the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for maintaining ultra-low interest rates to assess the impact of U.S. tariff policies, while others focus on rising domestic inflation pressures [2] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its economic growth forecast due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, complicating the timing of the next interest rate hike [2]

美联储卡什卡利：通胀率高于2%，必须将其恢复至2%的目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasizes the importance of taking measures to restore inflation rates to target levels, as low-income households are struggling to cope with the pressures of rising prices [1] Group 1 - The need for action to address inflation is critical for the economic well-being of low-income families [1]

美联储古尔斯比：如果通胀率保持在2%的范围内且不确定性得到解决，美联储将走上降息的路径。 ...

美联储戴利：高度关注将通胀率降至2%的目标。 ...

匈牙利央行：价格限制措施今年可能将通胀率平均降低0.8个百分点。 ...

奥地利经济研究所（WIFO）：预计2025年通胀率为2.9%，2026年为2.2%；预计2025年GDP将增长 0.1%，2026年将增长1.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, despite pressures from President Trump who argues that not lowering rates could cost the U.S. economy billions [6][8]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's statement indicates that the U.S. economy is still expanding, with a stable labor market, although inflation rates have increased. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was at 2.15% year-on-year in April, with core PCE at 2.52%, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [6][7]. Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve is not only maintaining interest rates but also continuing to reduce its balance sheet, which has shrunk from a peak of $8.96 trillion to $6.677 trillion as of June 1, indicating a cautious but hawkish stance on monetary policy [7][9]. Political Dynamics - President Trump's administration is under pressure to have the Federal Reserve ease monetary policy to stabilize financial markets affected by high tariffs and to reduce government financing costs. Trump believes that low interest rates are essential for stimulating economic growth and achieving his policy goals [8][9]. Future Rate Cuts - There is a high likelihood of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, especially if the U.S. economy shows continued weakness. Comparatively, other central banks have lower benchmark rates, which may increase the pressure on the Fed to lower rates [10]. Global Impact - The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy has implications for global markets, providing some stability but also creating challenges for developing countries facing high dollar interest rates. A potential rate cut could alleviate some debt pressures for these nations [10]. China's Position - The direct impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on China is diminishing, as cross-border capital flows are more influenced by China's economic outlook and policies. The stability of the RMB is supported by trade surpluses and the central bank's intervention capabilities, allowing for greater independence in monetary policy [11].

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Australia for May 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, a decrease from the previous three months' 2.4%, and below the market expectation of 2.3% [1][2] - The monthly inflation rate, excluding volatile items like fruits, vegetables, and automotive fuel, is reported at 2.7%, slightly down from 2.8% in April [1][2] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator for core inflation, has dropped from 2.8% to 2.4%, now below the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range midpoint of 2-3% [1][2] Group 2 - Specific price changes in May include food and non-alcoholic beverages rising by 2.9%, down from 3.1% in April; tobacco and alcohol prices increased from 5.7% to 5.9%; clothing and footwear prices rose from 0.8% to 1.3% [1][2] - Housing prices decreased from 2.2% to 2%, with rental prices dropping from 5% to 4.5% and new housing prices from 1.2% to 0.8%; electricity prices shifted from a decline of 6.5% to 5.9% [1][2] - Other notable price changes include furniture and household equipment prices decreasing from 1% to 0.9%; transport prices improved from a decline of 3.2% to 2.5%, with automotive fuel prices declining from 12% to 10% [2]

日本央行审议委员田村直树：美国关税措施可能对日本经济和物价产生压力，但通胀率预计将在2027财 年前后维持在2%左右。 ...