文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ， 国盛证券宏观分析师 朱慧 按 惯 例 ， 4 月 底 将 召 开 经 济 工 作 相 关 的 政 治 局 会 议 ， 基 于 一 季 度 经 济 表 现、 对等关税 进展。 本 文 前瞻 认 为， 会议 总基 调应 会更 加积 极、 更 加扩 张、应会有"真金白银"（实际规模与节奏相机抉择），立足当下、着眼长 远 ， 全 力 " 稳 预 期 、 稳 增 长 、 稳 外 贸 、 稳 就 业 、 稳 股 市 、 稳 楼 市 " 等 各 种"稳"，应会加力推动既定的存量政策落地，也应会推出一批增量政策， 尤其是"更大力度的中央加杠杆、更持续的稳股市稳楼市、更精准的扩内 按惯例，4月底将召开经济工作相关的政治局会议，基于一季度经济表现、对等关税进展，近期总理座谈会、国常会、国新办发布会等系列会议，我们有4 点前瞻： 前瞻1 经济形势上，应会肯定一季度经济起步平稳、开局良好、延续回升向好态势，但应也会直面困难，着重强调"今年的形势比较特殊"，包括外部环境更趋严 峻复杂、外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力、内需增长动力不足等。 一方面，应会肯定经济运行中的积极因素持续增多，如延续 ...

5、 上证报记者从上海商务委获悉，最新发布的 《关于进一步优化上海餐饮企业发展环境的若干措施》 （以下简称若干措施）提出，鼓励金融机构有 效运用大数据和金融科技手段，在风险可控前提下开发有针对性的金融产品， 加大对餐饮企业的融资支持力度 。 6、 22日讯， 首届具身智能机器人运动会将于4月24日至26日在无锡市惠山区举办 。 本次活动包括开幕式、竞技赛/应用赛、主题会议等多个环 节。 其中，竞技赛包括竞速跑、越野跑、足球、篮球、舞蹈等； 应用赛包括搬运、智能抓取、室内救援等。 在无锡（惠山）人形机器人产业园推介 环节，宇树科技、小米人形机器人、乐聚机器人等相关负责人也将参与，就人形机器人关键技术瓶颈与突破路径、人形机器人应用场景的深度挖掘与落 脚难点等展开讨论。 今日导读 1. 多只黄金LOF在近日大涨后提示溢价风险。以易方达黄金主题证券投资基金(LOF)为例，该基金4月22日上午部分时段停牌，但复牌后继续大 涨，午后该基金再度停牌，全天涨幅超过9%。 2. 4月21日，中国人寿保险（集团）公司（以下简称"中国人寿集团"）官网集团领导栏信息显示，李祝用职务更新为该集团党委副书 记、副董事长、总裁，这意味着， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 超捷股份 (Chaojie Co., Ltd.) reported a revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit for the year 2024 [1][2] - The company achieved an operating income of 630 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.98% [1] Group 2 - The automotive industry remains the primary revenue source for 超捷股份, contributing 508 million yuan, which accounts for 80.56% of total revenue [2] - The company is actively exploring new business areas, including humanoid robotics and commercial aerospace, with a dedicated team for humanoid robot fastening components [2] - In the aerospace sector, 超捷股份 generated revenue of 14.71 million yuan, making up 2.33% of total revenue in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The decline in net profit is attributed to a decrease in orders from the subsidiary 成都新月数控机械有限公司 and a rapid increase in sales and management expenses [2]

新能源汽车业务成亮点，但成本压力显著 超捷股份在新能源汽车领域的业务表现亮眼，2024年应用于新能源汽车的紧固件销售收入达到8053.33 万元，同比增长45.43%。公司产品终端客户涵盖特斯拉、蔚来、比亚迪等知名车企，显示出其在新能 源汽车供应链中的重要地位。然而，尽管营收增长显著，毛利润仅为1.36亿元，增幅相对较小，表明公 司在扩大销售规模的同时，面临较大的成本压力。 公司的主要产品包括高强度精密紧固件和异形连接件，广泛应用于汽车发动机涡轮增压系统、换挡驻车 控制系统等关键零部件。随着新能源汽车渗透率的提升，公司在这一领域的市场份额不断扩大。然而， 原材料价格上涨、生产成本增加等因素，导致公司在营收增长的同时，净利润却大幅下滑。 2025年4月22日，超捷股份发布2024年年报。报告显示，公司实现营业总收入6.30亿元，同比增长 27.83%；归属净利润为0.11亿元，同比下降54.98%；扣非净利润为734.09万元，同比增长124.28%。尽 管公司在新能源汽车领域取得突破，但净利润的大幅下滑暴露出成本压力和盈利能力的不足。 研发投入加大，但盈利能力仍待提升 此外，公司的应付票据及应付账款较上年末增 ...

3大瓶颈 万亿赛道 商业航天是指采用市场化机制以获取商业利润为首要目标而开展的航天活动，涵盖卫星制造、火箭制造、卫星应用等领域。大规模太空资源开发成为拉动全球经 济增长的新引擎，与新兴产业深度融合发展，将进一步推动航天市场化、商业化进程。相关数据显示，商业航天产业的直接投入产出比约为1∶2，对国民经济的直 接拉动作用为原始投入的8至14倍。欧洲空间政策研究所报告显示，2040年全球太空经济产值可能突破万亿美元。 从2015年商业航天元年开始，我国商业航天进入蓬勃发展阶段，商业发射次数高速增长，市场规模保持高速增长，但在技术、产业链等方面仍存在三大卡点。 关键技术待突破。 抗辐射FPGA、高精度惯性导航系统仍依赖欧美进口，先进卫星载荷技术等方面与美国存在差距，需要持续加大研发投入以突破技术瓶颈，提 高关键技术、零部件的稳定性和可靠性。 发射成本与运力瓶颈。 我国航天发射市场需求大，运载能力缺口较大，不足未来所需运力的1/5；现阶段我国卫星入轨成本1万美元左右，大推力可重复使用火箭 技术亟待突破。我国卫星研制成本约是Spacex星链的9倍，成本和质量控制是关键挑战。 商业闭环未形成。 商业航天前期研发投入巨大、回 ...

此次合作，双方将整合各自的技术、人才和市场资源，共同投入研发力量，针对商业卫星系统对芯片的 严苛要求，开发新一代高端MCU芯片。该芯片将在低功耗设计、可靠性提升以及AI应用支持等方面实 现突破，打造面向太空场景的高端MCU解决方案。 此次战略合作，标志着双方在技术创新和产业发展上迈出了重要一步。未来，钜泉科技与太湖星云将以 此次合作为契机，不断深化交流与合作，共同探索更多应用场景，为推动商业航天产业的发展注入新的 活力。(厉平) 太湖星云则以"卫星大脑"为核心技术，该技术采用异构架构(MCU+FPGA、MCU集成NPU+FPGA、 MCU+GPU)设计，不仅实现星上AI在轨发现，更将星务管理、测控通信、数据传输和智能数据处理等 功能集于一体，为卫星智能化应用提供了全新的技术路径。 近日，钜泉科技(688391)与太湖星云(无锡)科技有限公司(下称：太湖星云)宣布将围绕商业卫星系统的能 级提升展开战略合作，双方计划共同研发低功耗、高可靠性且支持AI应用的高端MCU芯片。此次合作 旨在融合双方在芯片设计和卫星应用领域的优势，推动卫星智能化技术在轨应用的突破性发展。 资料显示，钜泉科技作为国内智能电网终端设备芯片的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the commercial aerospace industry, suggesting that the sector will continue to experience growth and investment opportunities in the near future [8][10]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of satellite internet constellations and the increasing demand for satellite launches, which will drive the industry's growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for satellite launches is unprecedented, and the application of reusable rocket technology will be a key factor in accelerating industry development [11][55]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies and support for the commercial aerospace sector, which are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth [25][28]. Summary by Sections Recent Events and Outlook - The report discusses the limited direct impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on China's commercial aerospace industry due to the country's advancements in domestic production capabilities and technology [25][26]. - It notes that several policies aimed at regulating and promoting the commercial aerospace industry have been implemented, which will help establish a foundation for accelerated development [27][28]. Investment Opportunities for 2025 - The report identifies several key areas for investment in the commercial aerospace sector, including satellite manufacturing, satellite communication, and satellite navigation, all of which are expected to see significant growth [10][11][12]. - Specific companies to watch include those involved in satellite manufacturing and internet constellations, as well as those intersecting with emerging industries like smart driving and artificial intelligence [9][13]. Market Performance - The report provides an overview of the market performance of the commercial aerospace index, noting a slight increase compared to other indices, indicating a resilient sector amidst broader market fluctuations [19][20]. - It highlights the performance of specific companies within the sector, showcasing significant gains for some while others faced declines [20][52]. Future Developments - The report anticipates that the commercial aerospace industry will continue to grow rapidly, supported by government initiatives and increasing private sector investment [26][39]. - It also mentions the ongoing development of new satellite constellations and the expansion of satellite internet services, which are expected to drive future growth [33][36][37].

Core Viewpoint - China Satellite is facing significant financial challenges, with a revenue decline of 25.06% and a net profit drop of 82.28% in 2024, attributed to reduced new orders and increased competition in the aerospace market [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Satellite reported revenue of 5.156 billion yuan, down from the previous year, and a net profit of 27.91 million yuan, reflecting an 82.28% decrease [2]. - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains fell dramatically by 96.67% to 4.78 million yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The aerospace market is becoming increasingly competitive, with more companies entering the satellite manufacturing and application sectors, leading to a more diversified market landscape [3]. - The rise of private enterprises has intensified competition, particularly in cost and delivery timelines [3][7]. Business Operations - China Satellite's main business includes aerospace manufacturing and satellite applications, with successful launches of 24 small/micro satellites in 2024 [4]. - The company has made strides in satellite internet constellation products and low-altitude logistics applications, positioning itself for future growth in these areas [5]. Technological Capabilities - As a state-owned enterprise, China Satellite possesses strong technological foundations, with a significant portion of its workforce (80.69%) engaged in R&D [6]. - The company has established multiple national and provincial-level innovation platforms to enhance its technological capabilities [6]. Strategic Direction - To adapt to rapid market changes, China Satellite is focusing on digital transformation and product design upgrades to enhance its competitiveness [7]. - The company aims to increase production efficiency and shift towards service-oriented satellite manufacturing to meet diverse market demands [7][8].

Core Insights - The successful completion of the 100th Tianque series rocket engine marks a significant milestone for China's commercial aerospace propulsion industry, indicating a shift towards large-scale application [1] Industry Development - The Tianque series engines are integral to the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket, which successfully completed a 10-kilometer vertical takeoff and landing test last September, showcasing advancements in reusable launch vehicle technology [1] - This achievement is expected to drive high-quality and large-scale development within China's commercial aerospace sector, highlighting its growing capabilities in space exploration [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese government is promoting the large-scale application of new technologies and products in emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, aiming for safe and healthy development [1] - The commercial aerospace industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with advancements in satellite manufacturing and the establishment of a complete industrial chain [3][11] Industry Development - The demand for satellite communication services is increasing due to advancements in computer, data analysis, and artificial intelligence technologies, enabling the rapid and cost-effective production of satellites [3] - A commercial aerospace unicorn in Nantong has achieved a production cycle for satellites similar to that of automobiles, completing the entire process from team formation to market delivery in just over three years [1][3] Investment and Infrastructure - In Chizhou, Anhui, a 2 billion yuan industrial fund and simplified approval processes have attracted multiple commercial aerospace projects, leading to the development of a comprehensive "rocket + satellite + materials" industrial ecosystem [3][5] - The local government is actively promoting the development of low-orbit communication satellite payloads and has established a detailed industrial chain map to facilitate targeted investments [7][9] Technological Advancements - The "Zhishen-1" liquid launch vehicle, developed by a private company, is set for its maiden flight in August 2025, showcasing the rapid advancements in rocket technology [5] - The integration of artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing into the aerospace sector is transforming various industries, with applications ranging from navigation to real-time remote sensing [13] Future Outlook - The commercial aerospace industry in China is expected to reach a mature stage by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan or during the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a significant opportunity for growth [11] - The industry is currently in a rapid and healthy growth phase, with companies overcoming initial challenges and focusing on high-quality development [11]