Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - situation of nickel and stainless steel are generally bearish [1] - The intraday price of Shanghai nickel dropped by 2.1%, breaking below the 120,000 mark, and the short - term cost support may fail [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.02% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,950 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; LME nickel 3M is 15,380 dollars/ton, with a 0.19% change [8] - The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,680 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [9] 2. Management Strategies Inventory Management - When there is a risk of inventory impairment due to falling product sales prices, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks, with a hedging ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% by selling call options [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan; also sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] 3. Market Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - There is an expectation of increased supply in the nickel ore market as the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines gradually weakens, and the price bottom is loosening - The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded. Some large stainless - steel manufacturers in Indonesia have announced production cuts, and the demand in the off - season is pessimistic - The price of the new - energy link has stabilized due to intermediate products, but the short - term impact is limited - The spot market at the current price level has relatively active trading [3] Bullish Factors - China and the US have reached a tariff agreement - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025 [4] Bearish Factors - At the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing - Stainless - steel inventories remain at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement - Multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations - The overall weakness of the new - energy link may drag down the industrial chain [7] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons compared to the previous period - LME nickel inventory is 200,862 tons, an increase of 864 tons - Stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines plans to impose a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances. Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity is accelerating, and prices have significantly declined, weakening raw material cost support. Steel mills are maintaining normal production, cutting 300 - series stainless steel production due to cost - price inversion and increasing 200 - series and 400 - series production, with supply pressure remaining. Demand has entered the traditional peak season, but due to increased macro - market uncertainty, downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced goods, and domestic inventories have slightly increased recently. Technically, it has fallen below the MA10 support, and positions have fluctuated significantly at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, and the 06 - 07 contract spread is - 50 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,963 lots, and the main - contract position is 123,141 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 141,742 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,750 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap stainless steel 304 is 9,850 yuan/ton. The SS main - contract basis is 465 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, and the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 million tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 124,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 945 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.9018 million tons, and the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 656,000 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, the monthly excavator production is 33,200 units, the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 49,900 units, and the monthly production of small tractors is 13,000 units. In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities remained active, but with a high listing volume, "selling at a lower price for higher volume" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline of 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [2] 3.6 Industry News - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed should be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. The Chinese government supports African least - developed countries in using the zero - tariff policy on 100% of tariff items, and from December 1 last year to March this year, China's imports from African least - developed countries reached $21.42 billion, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2]

度较重。近期国内库存小幅回升。技术面，日线MACD低位金叉向上，站上MA10，关注13150阻力。操作 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 不锈钢产业日报 2025-05-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12995 | -85 06-07月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -60 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -18187 | -5918 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 127690 | -4068 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 158715 | -94 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9900 | 100 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 475 | 160 | | | | ...