镍&不锈钢：受印尼暴乱罢工情绪影响上行 9月1日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 9.27% | 1.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-08-20 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the weaker increase in raw material costs. Steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption nears its end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to a recovery in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously积压 orders. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, with the decline in positions and prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see for now. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,820 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts is - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,184 lots, an increase of 4,045 lots. The position of the main contract is 135,764 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units. - In August, the LPR quotes remained unchanged: the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%. [2] Industry News - At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions have increased the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia has accelerated its release, and the output has rebounded significantly. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have further regulated the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curbed low - price disorderly competition. - On August 18, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi. They had positive, constructive, and forward - looking discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of common concern and reached 10 achievements. [2] Key Points to Focus On - No key news today. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The raw material cost support has weakened as the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply and raises costs, but the rapid release of Indonesian ferronickel production capacity has led to a significant rebound in output and a notable decline in ferronickel prices recently [2]. - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel output is expected to increase in August [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, with the optimistic expectation of the peak season from September to October and the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on - demand. The domestic inventory reduction has slowed down, and the spot premium has remained stable [2]. - Technically, with the increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 13,225 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 17,378 lots, an increase of 4,398 lots; the position of the main contract was 135,260 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 103,036 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output was 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output was 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 592,900 tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume was 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators was 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors was 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decline in June. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June [2]. - The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which will consolidate Russia's controlled territory. Zelensky stated that he firmly rejects territorial concessions, and an agreement without Ukraine's participation will be an "invalid plan" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased cost of nickel resources from the Indonesian government's PNBP policy and the accelerated release of Indonesian ferronickel production [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, leading to greater production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may also help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant and less willing to accept high - priced goods, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Domestic stainless steel inventory has entered the destocking cycle, and the decline in inventory has accelerated with continuous production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position volume has decreased, and both bulls and bears are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support level at 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small long position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24,777 lots, a decrease of 1,719 lots. The main contract position volume is 87,475 lots, a decrease of 1,864 lots [2]. - The stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, a decrease of 61 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern [2]. - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [2]. - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release of resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. However, the production of Indonesian ferronickel has rebounded significantly [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the issuance and raises the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the over - supply situation, and stainless - steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, downstream buyers are cautious, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic stainless - steel inventory has entered a destocking cycle, and the inventory decline is accelerating as production cuts continue [2]. - Technically, the positions are decreasing, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has fallen below the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on stainless steel and short on nickel [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,761 lots, an increase of 6,549 lots; the main contract position is 94,448 lots, a decrease of 8,202 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 103,234 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in Beijing in October. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. Two voting members support interest - rate cuts, and Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut [2]. - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government. However, the production capacity of nickel iron in Indonesia has been accelerating, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing pressure of cost - price inversion and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. In addition, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and the production of stainless steel is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased uncertainty in the macro - market and still existing pressure on export demand, downstream buyers are hesitant and have a poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The destocking of domestic inventories is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the destocking performance brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the trading volume and open interest are decreasing, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the M10 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,920 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 33,195 lots, with a daily increase of 1,484 lots. The open interest of the main contract is 103,270 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,143 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,296 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 150 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, with a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, with an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, with a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 28, local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [2]. - The US Treasury Department announced on Monday that it expects to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in net terms in the third quarter, more than $45 billion higher than the estimate announced in April. Excluding the impact of a lower cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, it is $6 billion higher than the April expectation [2]. - US President Trump said that the United States has reached a tariff agreement with the European Union at a 15% tax rate. He also said that the EU will increase its investment in the United States by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly, and the price of nickel iron has dropped recently, weakening the support of raw material costs [2] - On the supply side, steel mills are under increasing pressure of cost inversion and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2] - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and continued pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant, with poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought about by subsequent production cuts [2] - Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short sides. Attention should be paid to the support of MA10, and short - term consolidation is expected. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, a daily decrease of 595 lots; the position of the main contract is 104,645 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,572 tons, a daily decrease of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2] - The daily SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,650 yuan; the national average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 110,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 258,000 units, a decrease of 2,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US PPI in June had a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0% [2] - Trump said that the countries receiving tariff letters are small in scale and trade volume, the US and India are close to reaching an agreement, and there may be an agreement with the EU [2] - Li Qiang proposed to study the implementation of key policies to strengthen the domestic large - cycle and standardize the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in nickel supply cost and the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply side is facing cost - upside - down pressure, leading to increased production cuts by steel mills. Domestic anti - involution measures may help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to further decline. On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and hesitant downstream buyers. Domestic inventory de - stocking is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking performance after production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions, and the MA10 support level should be monitored. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The recommended operation is to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, down 595 lots; the main contract position is 100,817 lots, up 46,026 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,872 tons, down 119 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 0.1%. The increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the negotiations are quite close in principle, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel mills are facing increasing cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, the downstream shows a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought by subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of +5; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, with a change of - 540; the main contract position is 66,494 lots, with a change of - 11,562. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,991 tons, with a change of - 60 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change. The SS main contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231,836,100 square meters, an increase of 53,477,700 square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, with a change of - 10,400 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, with a change of - 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, with a change of - 10,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately easy monetary policy. China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation, and service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand. The EU's Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security said that if the US - EU trade negotiations fail, the EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported goods worth about 84 billion US dollars. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity has accelerated, and the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly recently, weakening the raw material cost support [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-07-10 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy [2]. - The steel mills are facing increased pressure of cost inversion and are in a state of full - line losses, leading to increased production cuts. With domestic anti - involution measures, the over - supply situation may be alleviated, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional off - season of consumption, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure, the downstream market is cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and the impact of subsequent production cuts on inventory reduction should be monitored [2]. - Technically, the long - position is slightly stronger in terms of positions. Pay attention to the support of MA10, and it is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,647 lots, an increase of 9 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,345 lots, a decrease of 2,421 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. The CPI turned positive after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices, and the PPI's month - on - month decline was the same as last month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization [2]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1st, the US will impose a 20% tariff on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The new tariff on Brazil is much higher than the previous 10% [2]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [2].