不锈钢产业日报 2026-01-28 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 14465 | -75 03-04月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | -15 -13718 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -12482 | 2264 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 123373 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 39654 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with the price range between 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 490 yuan/ton; the 02 - 03 contract price difference is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,915 lots, a decrease of 4,552 lots; the main contract position is 145,444 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 413 tons [2] 现货市场 (Spot Market) - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 150,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 7 - 10% ferronickel nationwide is 1,030 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 20 yuan/nickel point [2] - China's monthly chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 产业情况 (Industry Situation) - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 540,500 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 下游情况 (Downstream Situation) - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534,567,000 square meters, an increase of 43,953,100 square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] 行业消息 (Industry News) - In November in the US, retail sales unexpectedly strengthened with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption; energy cost increases pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, with the core PPI month - on - month lower than expected; US existing home sales in December were the strongest since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and house price growth was the weakest in two and a half years [2] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January; voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance; 2025 voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation; Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest - rate cuts: the Trump administration's deregulation [2] - China's foreign trade accelerated its recovery in December. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a record high, rare - earth quotas increased by 32% year - on - year, and annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while coal imports fell by the largest margin in a decade [2] 观点总结 (Viewpoint Summary) - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. In the case of raw material supply contraction, ferronickel production will face pressure to reduce output [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Although it has bid farewell to the traditional peak demand season, the expected decline in production is actually limited, and supply pressure still exists [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezes is starting to be felt. Market procurement willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, there is also not much inventory in the market, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of nickel iron is expected to shrink. Nickel mines in the Philippines face seasonal challenges, and Indonesia plans to cut RKAB quotas, leading to potential production cuts in nickel - iron. Although the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, the supply pressure remains due to limited actual production decline. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, resulting in low market purchasing willingness. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the country is seasonally decreasing slightly. Technically, the stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with attention on the upper resistance level at 13,600 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan/ton. The 02 - 03 contract spread is - 110 yuan/ton, with a change from - 8983 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,457 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots. The main contract position is 63,161 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,387 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 345 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 97,000 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 143,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the country is 930 yuan/nickel point, a daily increase of 10 yuan/nickel point. The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The current expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promoting the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump issued a warning to Venezuela's "interim president". The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stainless steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly. Pay attention to the support at MA5, with an upper target of 13,300 [2]. - Although the stainless steel mills' production profit has improved and the traditional demand peak season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the stainless steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The market procurement willingness is low, but the national stainless steel social inventory maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 13,075 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,898 lots, an increase of 1,477 lots; the main contract position is 106,172 lots, an increase of 5,401 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,580 tons, a decrease of 125 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of stainless steel is 300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 130,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,950 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferro - chrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference plans to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions [2]. - The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, the fastest growth in two years. The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, increased by 2.9% [2]. - In the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention to the resistance at 12,600. The raw material cost has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure has increased as the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved and the expected decline in production is limited. The downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the export volume has decreased, leading to a slight increase in the national stainless steel social inventory. Technically, the short - selling sentiment has decreased as the position is stable and the price has risen [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the spread between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,061 lots, down 3,269 lots; the position of the main contract is 64,258 lots, down 7,223 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,378 tons, down 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the SS main contract is 415 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, up 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, down 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, down 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, up 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, down 12,300 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 490,613,900 square meters, up 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, down 700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, down 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects one interest rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months. The labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected. At the current interest rate, it can wait patiently, and the impact of tariffs is expected to fade next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline in PPI slightly widened. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost has decreased as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, although the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade, while the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains at a high level and the return volume to China is expected to increase [2] - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Despite the end of the traditional peak demand season, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, with the impact of previous export squeezing starting to show. The market's purchasing willingness is low, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance is average, resulting in a narrow increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory [2] - Technically, the position is stable while the price is rising, and the bearish sentiment has declined. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,555 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 120 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,792 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 80 lots; the position of the main contract is 71,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,683 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,498 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 415 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 119,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change [2] - The monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, with a decrease of 12,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, with an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [2] - The monthly production of excavators is 30,900 units, with a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, with a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's employment - related indicator, the JOLTS job openings in October, unexpectedly rose to a five - month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs reached a two - year high [2] - The Bank of Japan governor said that if the economic outlook is achieved, interest rates will be raised, and in special cases, the bond - buying scale will be increased. Japan is gradually approaching the sustainable inflation target, hinting that future interest rate hikes will be "more than once" [2] - Trump said that interest rate cuts are the touchstone for the new Fed chairman, and he will consider two candidates. He may reduce the prices of some commodities by adjusting tariffs. The media reported that Trump will conduct the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, and Hassett is still the best candidate. Hassett said that the Fed has "sufficient room" for interest rate cuts, which means a cut of more than 25 basis points [2] 3.7重点关注 - There is no important news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, and the export volume is decreasing. The national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase. Technically, the short - selling sentiment has declined. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will be adjusted strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spread between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,521 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,872 lots, an increase of 978 lots. The main - contract position is 78,164 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,556 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 12,300 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 490,613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 219,000 units, a decrease of 43,000 units. The monthly production of excavators is 309,000 units, a decrease of 7,000 units. The monthly production of small tractors is 90,000 units, a decrease of 10,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. Next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger - car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. The export in November increased by 52.4%. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the domestic ferronickel plants' raw - material inventory is tightening. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the M300 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12445 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6126 lots, an increase of 1933 lots; the main contract position is 108469 lots, a decrease of 8957 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 62998 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (cut - edge, Wuxi) is 13200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 (Wuxi) is 8850 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The SS main contract basis is 375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29430 tons, an increase of 1120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22900 metal tons, an increase of 1200 metal tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9939.65 tons, a decrease of 18631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905100 tons, a decrease of 180200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 119750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%, national) is 885 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2] - China's ferrochrome output is 757800 tons, a decrease of 26900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597600 tons, an increase of 12300 tons [2] - The stainless - steel export volume is 458500 tons, a decrease of 29500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 490613900 square meters, an increase of 36623900 square meters [2] - The output of excavators is 30900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21900 units, a decrease of 4300 units; the output of small tractors is 9000 units, a decrease of 1000 units [2] Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months. Affected by the high base, the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, a nine - month high [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, the nickel ore grade is decreasing, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron output remains at a high level, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and although the traditional demand peak season is over, the actual decline in output is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [2] - On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the stainless - steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory is showing a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is under pressure, and the short sentiment is weakening [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will rise and adjust, break through the MA10, and the upper target is 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,405 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,124 lots, an increase of 2,425 lots; the position of the main contract is 147,237 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 63,890 tons, a decrease of 492 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import quantity of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import quantity of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 885 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing start - up area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Waller, a top candidate for Fed Chair, is mainly concerned about the labor market and advocates a December rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly, who usually follows Powell, also worries about a sudden deterioration in the labor market and supports a December rate cut [2] - Chinese President talked with US President Trump, stating that "cooperation benefits both, while confrontation hurts both", and emphasizing that Taiwan's return to China is an important part of the post - war international order. The two leaders also discussed the Ukraine crisis [2] - From January to October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased by 43.8% year - on - year, maintaining a warming trend. In the raw material segment, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic nickel - iron plants. However, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The stainless - steel mills' production profit has been repaired. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the stainless - steel mills' production schedule is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - The downstream demand shows the characteristic of a weak peak season, with low market purchasing willingness, average overall inquiry and transaction performance, and the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase [2] - Technically, the position has decreased while the price has stabilized, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened, and there is support at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will rise and adjust, break through the MA10, and the upper target is 12,600 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure is expected to increase as stainless - steel mills are likely to increase production schedules. However, the demand is weak with low market purchasing willingness, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,335 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,655 lots, down 240 lots; the main contract position volume is 183,832 lots, up 6,511 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 68,310 tons, down 485 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, up 20,400 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million in the previous week. Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia. In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing, leading to tight raw material inventories in domestic ferronickel plants. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase [2].