1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply cost is affected by the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, and the premium of domestic nickel ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of several smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the spot premium has risen slightly, and domestic inventories have decreased; overseas LME inventories have increased. Technically, the price is adjusting, and both long and short positions are cautious in trading. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA60. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being and go long with a light position at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is -160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,270 US dollars/ton, down 65 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 45,068 lots, down 5,353 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -30,686 lots, down 1,397 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,900 tons, up 456 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 29,834 tons, up 2,334 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,752 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,536 tons, down 307 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -179.4 US dollars/ton, down 1.57 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,400.11 million tons, up 13.95 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.2 million metal tons, down 0.02 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 55.88 million tons, down 0.52 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate. ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna says the current interest rate level is appropriate, and the central bank is capable of dealing with downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras says the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation in China shows characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and expectations of a new round of policy easing are rising. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, long - short trading is cautious and faces resistance at previous highs. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,425 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton. The main contract's open interest is 66,538 lots, down 4,072 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,541 lots, down 1,273 lots. LME nickel inventory is 224,484 tons, down 600 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,974 tons, down 600 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 26,167 tons, up 1,208 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 185.68 US dollars/ton, down 14.48 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 5.0058 million tons, up 659,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 13.8616 million tons, up 779,300 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, down 13,400 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [3] 观点总结 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and raw materials are in a tight situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase on dips, the spot premium remains stable, domestic inventory increases, and overseas LME inventory accumulates [3]

镍&不锈钢：受印尼暴乱罢工情绪影响上行 9月1日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 9.27% | 1.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. The overall refined nickel output has increased slightly due to the stable production rhythm of leading enterprises and the planned launch of new production capacity. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills have increased production due to improved profits, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles have continued to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices. Both domestic and overseas LME inventories have decreased. Technically, the position has rebounded with rising prices, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold previous long positions, with a reference range of 122,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 123,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,750 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5405 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 105 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 91,963 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2,342 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 25,674 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 5,527 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 209,844 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 26,439 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 504 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,998 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,773 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 132 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 124,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,900 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 124,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,600 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 174.22 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.18 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65.92 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,259.82 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.97 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,018.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.55 million tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.68 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 million tons [2] 6. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and the new order index rose to 49.5. The non - manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerated pace. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded year - on - year to 2.9%, in line with expectations. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [2]

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-20 仓增量价格下跌，多空存在分歧，预计区间宽幅震荡。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考11.95-12 .4。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119930 | -400 09-10月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -130 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15060 | -110 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 50856 | -5111 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -31236 | -512 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 209328 | -1086 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 26962 | 768 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 10008 | -1086 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 22559 | -282 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价( ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121850 | 780 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | 80 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15130 | 75 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 81103 | -4949 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -23562 | -753 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 211212 | -240 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 25750 | 299 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 15852 | -1176 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 20687 | -102 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 50 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 150 | | | 上海电解镍:CIF(提单)(日,美元/吨) | 85 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Authors - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, predicting a short - term wide - range oscillating trend [1] - The research team is the Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The intraday Shanghai nickel bottomed out and oscillated. The news of Indonesia's quota increase to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, and the premium has increased. There is an expected increase in the supply of Philippine nickel ore, and the impact of the rainy season is gradually weakening. The nickel - iron price stabilized during the day. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, mainly affecting the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand in the off - season is sluggish. The nickel salt in the new energy chain declined due to the nickel price. The external market corrected to some extent, and the subsequent trend of LME nickel should be monitored [3] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement and the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Negative factors include the increasing supply of ore at the end of the Philippine rainy season, high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand, anti - dumping investigations by multiple stainless - steel trading countries, and the news of Indonesia's quota increase [4] Group 4: Price and Market Data Nickel - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.01% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 120,480 yuan/ton, 123,000 yuan/ton, 123,150 yuan/ton, and 123,370 yuan/ton respectively. The LME nickel 3M is 15,095 US dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 14.07% to 181,192 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 102,540 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.78% to 22,170 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.8% to - 1,980 yuan/ton [2][5] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless - steel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,690 yuan/ton, 12,875 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, and 12,735 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 20.33% to 139,550 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.13% to 101,554 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1.25% to 131,555 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 21.47% to 990 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,142 tons, a decrease of 720 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7] Group 6: Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the futures market. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] Group 7: Graphical Information - There are graphs showing the trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - disk closing price, stainless - steel main contract closing price, nickel spot average price,上期所镍仓单库存 seasonality, Philippine red - laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price, production profit rate of nickel sulfate by different raw materials, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium over first - grade nickel beans, Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, and Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality, etc. [8][10][12][13][15][17][21][22][23]

| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.02% | 2.8% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 镍&不锈钢：基本面与宏观整体偏空 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy, the supply cost of nickel resources has increased, and the premium of domestic trade ore has been stable. The cost of domestic smelters has steadily increased, and some smelters are facing losses. Meanwhile, the production capacity of nickel - iron in Indonesia has been released rapidly, and the output has rebounded significantly. On the demand side, stainless - steel prices have weakened. With high raw material costs, stainless - steel plants are experiencing profit inversions and there are expectations of production cuts. The spot procurement demand from downstream is weak. Although the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, its impact is limited due to the small proportion. Recently, domestic inventories have declined oscillatingly, while overseas inventories have continued to accumulate. Technically, the trading is cautious with reduced positions, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 124,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 910 yuan; the price difference between the May - June contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 160 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,430 dollars/ton, with a change of 200 dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 67,940 hands, with a decrease of 1,455 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 2,030 hands, with a decrease of 555 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 200,082 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 28,675 tons, with a decrease of 912 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 20,658 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 24,125 tons, with a decrease of 183 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 125,575 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 125,350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 945 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 510 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 193.01 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.88 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 153.52 million tons, with an increase of 38.91 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 685.43 million tons, with an increase of 1.46 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 111.85 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.28 million metal tons, with a decrease of 0.05 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, with an increase of 661.27 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 billion tons, with an increase of 104.6 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 24.75 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 64.67 million tons, with an increase of 0.79 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7. The final value of France's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023. The final value of Germany's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy will increase the supply cost of nickel resources, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore will remain firm [3]. - Domestic smelters maintain normal production with rising output, and the production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is expected to be released faster with a significant rebound in output [3]. - Stainless - steel enterprises resume production after the holiday, but environmental protection maintenance affects output, which is unfavorable for nickel demand; the demand for new - energy vehicles continues to rise, but its small proportion has limited impact [3]. - Recently, the low nickel price has improved the downstream's willingness to purchase and stock up, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory, while overseas inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips with a light position [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 125,770 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,575 US dollars/ton, down 215 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 66,699 lots, up 34,148 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 1,704 lots, down 2,043 lots; LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, down 402 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 30,332 tons, down 262 tons; the total canceled warrants of LME nickel is 23,934 tons, up 4,188 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 2,4842 tons, down 494 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,180 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 207.32 US dollars/ton, up 0.22 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1.5352 million tons, up 389,100 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 6.6389 million tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 129.29 US dollars/ton, down 128.76 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,800 metal tons, down 500 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, up 661.27 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0133 million tons, up 104,600 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.9018 million tons, up 247,500 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 661,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April is 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in April is 48.7 (expected 47.5, final value in March 48.6); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 49.7 (expected 50.5, final value in March 51.0); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 50.1 (expected 50.3, final value in March 50.9) [3]. - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the increase in tariffs in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP; if the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds the current forecast, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027 [3]. - There is hope for the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and Trump's abandonment of the threat to fire the Fed chairman has improved market sentiment; domestic cities have successively introduced a package of policies to expand domestic demand, and Guangdong, Shanghai and other places are planning to introduce the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" [3].