镍&不锈钢：受印尼暴乱罢工情绪影响上行 9月1日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 9.27% | 1.8% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 跌，库存有减值 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 123450 | 1750 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -130 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15405 | 105 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 91963 | 2342 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -25674 | 5527 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 209844 | 300 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 26439 | -504 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 7998 | 18 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 21773 | -132 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 124300 | 1900 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 124200 | 1600 | | | 上海电解镍:CIF(提单)(日,美元/吨) | 85 ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-20 仓增量价格下跌，多空存在分歧，预计区间宽幅震荡。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考11.95-12 .4。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119930 | -400 09-10月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -130 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15060 | -110 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 50856 | -5111 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -31236 | -512 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 209328 | -1086 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 26962 | 768 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 10008 | -1086 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 22559 | -282 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价( ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121850 | 780 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | 80 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15130 | 75 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 81103 | -4949 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -23562 | -753 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 211212 | -240 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 25750 | 299 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 15852 | -1176 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 20687 | -102 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 50 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 150 | | | 上海电解镍:CIF(提单)(日,美元/吨) | 85 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Authors - The report focuses on nickel and stainless steel, predicting a short - term wide - range oscillating trend [1] - The research team is the Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team, including Xia Yingying and Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The intraday Shanghai nickel bottomed out and oscillated. The news of Indonesia's quota increase to 3.2 billion tons needs verification, and the premium has increased. There is an expected increase in the supply of Philippine nickel ore, and the impact of the rainy season is gradually weakening. The nickel - iron price stabilized during the day. Some steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, mainly affecting the output of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel. The demand in the off - season is sluggish. The nickel salt in the new energy chain declined due to the nickel price. The external market corrected to some extent, and the subsequent trend of LME nickel should be monitored [3] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement and the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Negative factors include the increasing supply of ore at the end of the Philippine rainy season, high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand, anti - dumping investigations by multiple stainless - steel trading countries, and the news of Indonesia's quota increase [4] Group 4: Price and Market Data Nickel - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.01% and a historical percentile of 2.8% [2] - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 120,480 yuan/ton, 123,000 yuan/ton, 123,150 yuan/ton, and 123,370 yuan/ton respectively. The LME nickel 3M is 15,095 US dollars/ton. The trading volume increased by 14.07% to 181,192 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.91% to 102,540 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.78% to 22,170 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 29.8% to - 1,980 yuan/ton [2][5] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless - steel main contract, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,690 yuan/ton, 12,875 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, and 12,735 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 20.33% to 139,550 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.13% to 101,554 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1.25% to 131,555 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 21.47% to 990 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 42,389 tons, a decrease of 1,762 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,142 tons, a decrease of 720 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 973.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7] Group 6: Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% [2] Procurement Management - When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the futures market. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] Group 7: Graphical Information - There are graphs showing the trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - disk closing price, stainless - steel main contract closing price, nickel spot average price,上期所镍仓单库存 seasonality, Philippine red - laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price, production profit rate of nickel sulfate by different raw materials, battery - grade nickel sulfate premium over first - grade nickel beans, Chinese 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, and Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality, etc. [8][10][12][13][15][17][21][22][23]

| 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.02% | 2.8% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 镍&不锈钢：基本面与宏观整体偏空 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy, the supply cost of nickel resources has increased, and the premium of domestic trade ore has been stable. The cost of domestic smelters has steadily increased, and some smelters are facing losses. Meanwhile, the production capacity of nickel - iron in Indonesia has been released rapidly, and the output has rebounded significantly. On the demand side, stainless - steel prices have weakened. With high raw material costs, stainless - steel plants are experiencing profit inversions and there are expectations of production cuts. The spot procurement demand from downstream is weak. Although the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, its impact is limited due to the small proportion. Recently, domestic inventories have declined oscillatingly, while overseas inventories have continued to accumulate. Technically, the trading is cautious with reduced positions, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 124,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 910 yuan; the price difference between the May - June contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 160 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,430 dollars/ton, with a change of 200 dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 67,940 hands, with a decrease of 1,455 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 2,030 hands, with a decrease of 555 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 200,082 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 28,675 tons, with a decrease of 912 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 20,658 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 24,125 tons, with a decrease of 183 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 125,575 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 125,350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 945 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 510 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 193.01 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.88 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 153.52 million tons, with an increase of 38.91 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 685.43 million tons, with an increase of 1.46 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 111.85 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.28 million metal tons, with a decrease of 0.05 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, with an increase of 661.27 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 billion tons, with an increase of 104.6 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 24.75 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 64.67 million tons, with an increase of 0.79 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7. The final value of France's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023. The final value of Germany's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy will increase the supply cost of nickel resources, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore will remain firm [3]. - Domestic smelters maintain normal production with rising output, and the production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is expected to be released faster with a significant rebound in output [3]. - Stainless - steel enterprises resume production after the holiday, but environmental protection maintenance affects output, which is unfavorable for nickel demand; the demand for new - energy vehicles continues to rise, but its small proportion has limited impact [3]. - Recently, the low nickel price has improved the downstream's willingness to purchase and stock up, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory, while overseas inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips with a light position [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 125,770 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is - 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,575 US dollars/ton, down 215 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 66,699 lots, up 34,148 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 1,704 lots, down 2,043 lots; LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, down 402 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 30,332 tons, down 262 tons; the total canceled warrants of LME nickel is 23,934 tons, up 4,188 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 2,4842 tons, down 494 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 126,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,180 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 207.32 US dollars/ton, up 0.22 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 1.5352 million tons, up 389,100 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 6.6389 million tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 129.29 US dollars/ton, down 128.76 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,800 metal tons, down 500 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, up 661.27 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0133 million tons, up 104,600 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.9018 million tons, up 247,500 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 661,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April is 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in April is 48.7 (expected 47.5, final value in March 48.6); the preliminary value of the service PMI is 49.7 (expected 50.5, final value in March 51.0); the preliminary value of the composite PMI is 50.1 (expected 50.3, final value in March 50.9) [3]. - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the increase in tariffs in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP; if the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds the current forecast, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027 [3]. - There is hope for the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and Trump's abandonment of the threat to fire the Fed chairman has improved market sentiment; domestic cities have successively introduced a package of policies to expand domestic demand, and Guangdong, Shanghai and other places are planning to introduce the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" [3].