Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed a slight decline due to foreign exchange losses, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 sales volume growth is robust, with a significant increase anticipated in Q4 due to seasonal demand [2] - The company is expected to turn around losses in iron phosphate and increase nickel self-supply, contributing to profit elasticity [3] - Capital expenditures are accelerating, with a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1-3 of 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion, down 16% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue reached 11.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and a net profit of 380 million, reflecting a decrease of 17% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company experienced a foreign exchange loss of 130 million in Q3, which increased by nearly 80 million compared to Q2; excluding this impact, Q3 net profit grew by 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Sales Volume and Production - The company expects Q3 sales volume of ternary precursors and four-cobalt to reach 64,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22% [2] - The anticipated total sales volume for 2025 is approximately 250,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23% [2] - For 2026, the company forecasts a sales volume growth of around 15%, reaching 280,000 to 290,000 tons, with four-cobalt contributing 35,000 to 40,000 tons [2] Group 3: Product Segments - Q3 sales volume of iron phosphate is expected to be 43,000 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, and the company anticipates turning profitable in Q4 [3] - Nickel production in Q3 is projected at 40,000 tons, with an equity contribution of 24,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-supply of 30,000 tons of nickel metal in 2026, increasing the self-supply ratio to over 25% [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditures and Forecasts - Q3 operating expenses amounted to 940 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [4] - Capital expenditures for Q1-3 of 2025 totaled 3.2 billion, down 17% year-on-year, with Q3 capital expenditures at 1.5 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [4] - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.54 billion, 2 billion, and 2.61 billion respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 27x, 21x, and 16x [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production slows down, and domestic production gradually declines. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, the production schedule of stainless - steel mills still increases. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable fiscal investment policies in China, and anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or hold previous long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; the price difference between the October - November contracts is 495 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 110. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 10,699 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 630; the position volume of the main contract is 179,530 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,802. The warehouse receipt quantity is 74,376 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 121 [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the SS main contract is 505 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 935 yuan/nickel point, with a decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with an increase of 200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 267,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 6,900 units, with an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being. The Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on issues such as export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with the Dutch economic minister about issues such as Nexperia. A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines plans to impose a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances. Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity is accelerating, and prices have significantly declined, weakening raw material cost support. Steel mills are maintaining normal production, cutting 300 - series stainless steel production due to cost - price inversion and increasing 200 - series and 400 - series production, with supply pressure remaining. Demand has entered the traditional peak season, but due to increased macro - market uncertainty, downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced goods, and domestic inventories have slightly increased recently. Technically, it has fallen below the MA10 support, and positions have fluctuated significantly at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, and the 06 - 07 contract spread is - 50 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,963 lots, and the main - contract position is 123,141 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 141,742 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,750 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap stainless steel 304 is 9,850 yuan/ton. The SS main - contract basis is 465 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, and the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 million tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 124,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 945 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.9018 million tons, and the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 656,000 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, the monthly excavator production is 33,200 units, the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 49,900 units, and the monthly production of small tractors is 13,000 units. In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities remained active, but with a high listing volume, "selling at a lower price for higher volume" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline of 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [2] 3.6 Industry News - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed should be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. The Chinese government supports African least - developed countries in using the zero - tariff policy on 100% of tariff items, and from December 1 last year to March this year, China's imports from African least - developed countries reached $21.42 billion, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2]