Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department has announced new sanctions against Iran [1] - Russia has become the first country to recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan [1] - The UN Special Rapporteur has called for a comprehensive arms embargo against Israel and a suspension of all trade agreements and investment relations [1] Group 2 - U.S. Middle East envoy Wittekopf plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif in Oslo next week to restart nuclear negotiations [1] - Israel has conducted multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon and intensified military actions against the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza [1] - Israel and Syria held talks mediated by the U.S. aimed at ending border conflicts [1] Group 3 - Iranian Foreign Minister stated that Iran continues to comply with the Non-Proliferation Treaty [1] - Iran is prepared to discuss the scope of its uranium enrichment program with other countries [1] - Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister indicated that Iran does not intend to halt uranium enrichment activities and will not take further retaliatory actions against the U.S. [1] - Most Iranian airports have reopened for flights, and the national airspace is open for international transit flights from 5 AM to 6 PM local time [1]

Group 1 - The core discussion between Presidents Putin and Trump lasted about one hour, focusing on the Middle East situation and Ukraine negotiations [1][2] - Putin expressed Russia's willingness to continue negotiations with Ukraine, while Trump raised the issue of ending military actions in Ukraine [1][4] - The conversation did not address the topic of the U.S. halting weapon supplies to Ukraine, nor did it discuss specific dates for the third round of negotiations in Istanbul [1][2] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized the necessity of direct meetings between Ukrainian and Russian leaders for achieving peace [4] - Zelensky expressed support for Trump's previous unconditional ceasefire proposal, highlighting the differences between the two leaders [4] - Zelensky signed a law allowing mining revenues to be allocated to the Ukraine-U.S. reconstruction fund, which was established in agreement with Trump [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing discussions between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump regarding the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, emphasizing the importance of political and diplomatic solutions [1][3] - Putin expressed Russia's willingness to continue negotiations with Ukraine during the call with Trump, while Trump raised the issue of ending military actions in Ukraine [1][3] - The article notes that there was no discussion about the U.S. halting arms supplies to Ukraine or specific dates for the next round of negotiations in Istanbul [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that direct meetings between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia are essential for achieving peace [3] - Zelensky expressed support for Trump's previous unconditional ceasefire proposal, indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue [3] - The article mentions that Zelensky signed a law allowing funds from mineral extraction to be transferred to a Ukraine-U.S. reconstruction fund, reflecting ongoing economic collaboration [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department finds Iran's decision to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency unacceptable, emphasizing the need for Iran to fully cooperate without further delays [6] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that there is currently no accurate information regarding damage to nuclear facilities, but it appears these facilities are currently non-operational, pending an assessment report on their potential restart [7] - The U.S. Department of Defense reiterated that the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities has delayed the Iranian nuclear program by approximately 1 to 2 years [4] Group 2 - Ongoing airstrikes by Israel in Gaza have resulted in 108 fatalities [1] - Hamas is reviewing a newly received draft for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza [2] - An Iranian official warned of a devastating response if enemies launch another invasion [3] - The Israeli Foreign Minister indicated it is time to reinitiate "sanction countermeasures" against Iran [5]

Group 1: Israel-Iran Conflict - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran poses a significant threat to Israel through its nuclear capabilities and missile power [1] - Iranian Foreign Minister indicated that negotiations with the U.S. will take time, but the door for diplomacy remains open [1] - U.S. officials suggested that Iran may be concealing enough materials to manufacture nuclear weapons [1] Group 2: Military Actions - The Al-Qassam Brigades claimed to have launched several rockets at Israel [2] - The Houthis announced the use of hypersonic missiles to attack Israel [4] - The U.S. Ambassador to Israel threatened to use B-2 bombers against the Houthis [4] - The Israel Defense Forces reported intercepting a missile launched from Yemen [4] Group 3: Mediation Efforts - Qatar has submitted a mediation proposal to Israel and Hamas based on a framework by U.S. Middle East envoy, which includes some nuanced suggestions and modifications [3]

"我们讨论了关税、全球化的未来，以及大家对中东局势的担忧——这些都是当前最受关注的重大宏观 议题。" 在近期举行的2025年夏季达沃斯论坛期间，标普全球评级全球首席经济学家保罗·格伦瓦尔 （Paul Gruenwald）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，今年上半年，全球经济在不确定性加剧的背景下 依然展现出一定韧性，但结构性分化趋势愈发明显。他指出，关税政策对全球经济的影响不仅体现在税 率本身，更在于其带来的高度不确定性。 展望下半年，格伦瓦尔指出，决定经济走向的关键变量之一是政策不确定性的缓解。他预计，美国经济 将在今年实现"软着陆"；欧元区经济则有望逐步回暖；而中国经济"看起来相当稳健"。对于新兴市场， 格伦瓦尔同样持相对乐观态度，表示只要油价保持低位、美元相对稳定，这些市场的表现预计将较为良 好。不过，他也坦言，全球增长将呈现"不平衡"特征——各经济体受制于不同的经济周期和政策环境 等，处境将不尽相同。 谈及人工智能，格伦瓦尔表示，人工智能等新技术的广泛应用，有望成为未来5到10年全球增长的重要 动力。 上调对中国的增长预测 全球财经连线：你对于这次论坛有什么感受？ 保罗·格伦瓦尔：非常忙碌。我们讨论了关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to increase due to fluctuating international crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with specific price adjustments set for July 1 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 30, the reference crude oil price change rate was 5.41%, leading to an expected increase of 235 yuan per ton for gasoline and 225 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel respectively [2]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will rise from 7.14 yuan per liter to approximately 7.32 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will increase from 7.66 yuan per liter to around 7.85 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan. For a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption, the total fuel cost will increase by about 13 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will see an increase in fuel costs of approximately 337 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, primarily influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with a focus on US-Iran negotiations. However, unless a significant conflict arises, oil prices are unlikely to return to previous highs [3]. - Following a decrease in geopolitical risks, oil prices have returned to levels prior to the conflicts, but summer demand in the US is expected to provide support for prices, indicating that international oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the upcoming period [3]. Group 4: Future Price Adjustment Schedule - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open on July 15, 2025, at 24:00 [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for certain areas in northern Gaza [1] - Israel claims to have arrested over 60 Hamas members in the largest operation in the West Bank [1] - According to the media office in Gaza, 580 people have died while receiving food aid at a "US-Israel" assistance center, with the ongoing conflict resulting in 56,500 deaths in Gaza [1] Group 2: Iran-Israel Conflict - Israel's oil refinery is expected to fully resume operations by October 2025 [2] - The flight suspension in northern, southern, and western Iran has been extended until June 30 at 14:00 [2] - Iranian military chief Mousavi expressed strong doubts about Israel's commitment to a ceasefire [2] - Former US President Trump stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed, and if Iran can achieve peace, sanctions will be lifted [2] Group 3: Other Developments - The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, indicated that Iran could still produce enriched uranium within months [3] - The Saudi Defense Minister and the Iranian military chief discussed regional developments and efforts to maintain security and stability [3] - An Israeli court agreed to Prime Minister Netanyahu's request to postpone a hearing [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces reported multiple recent airstrikes in Syria [3]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 美股新高，原油大跌 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 海外经济跟踪周报 20250629 海外市场复盘（6.23-6.27） 本周海外主要股指普遍收涨。一是对伊朗以色列局势的担忧降温；二是因 为个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息和降低油价，令年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次；三是芯片和科技股发力；本周标普和纳指创新高，VIX 指 数下跌。 美元下跌、美债收益率下行。本周个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息、 鲍威尔在国会听证会上继续强调观望但态度开始"端水"；油价大幅回调、 抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅；周五公布 PCE 通胀超预期但超出的幅度有限， 年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次，美元和美债下行。 油价和黄金下跌。中东局势担忧下降，特朗普强调降低油价，令油价在此 前连续 3 周收涨后本周大跌，抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅。地缘冲突风险下 降、美国标普 PMI 等经济数据稳健、经济陷入衰退的概率下降，黄金回调。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储官员密集发声，立场不一。鸽派代表有美联储理事鲍曼，表 示可能支持 7 月降息；鹰派代表有哈玛克、博斯蒂克、柯林斯等。美联储 主席鲍威尔本周在 ...