农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/05/13 | 2180 | 2270 | 2400 | 2370 | -74 | -35 | 273 | 2800 | 2950 | 81 | 8 | | 2025/05/14 | 2180 | 2270 | 2400 | 2370 | -86 | -35 | 290 | 2800 | 2950 | 83 | -132 | | 2025/05/15 | 2180 | 2270 | 2388 | 2380 | -72 | -25 | 291 | 2800 | 2950 | 96 | -142 | | 2025/05/16 | 2180 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/15 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 潍坊 | 锦州 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/05/08 2180 | 2410 | 2270 | 2370 | -95 | -35 | 286 | 2800 | 2950 | 54 | -61 | | 2025/05/09 2180 | 2410 | 2270 | 2370 | -105 | -35 | 294 | 2800 | 2950 | 47 | -61 | | 2025/05/12 2180 | 2400 | 2270 | 2370 | -93 | -35 | 287 | 2800 | 2950 | 50 | 11 | | 2025/05/13 2180 | 2400 | 2270 | 2370 | -74 | -35 | 273 | 280 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/13 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/05/06 | 2110 | 2260 | 2380 | 2360 | -105 | -30 262 | 2750 | 2950 | -46 | -69 | | 2025/05/07 | 2180 | 2270 | 2390 | 2370 | -99 | -35 272 | 2800 | 2950 | -50 | -61 | | 2025/05/08 | 2180 | 2270 | 2410 | 2370 | -95 | -35 286 | 2800 | 2950 | 54 | -61 | | 2025/05/09 | 2180 | 2270 | 2410 | 2370 | -105 | -35 294 | ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/12 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/04/30 | 2110 | 2230 | 2340 | 2330 | -147 | -30 185 | 2750 | 2950 | -53 | -69 | | 2025/05/06 | 2110 | 2260 | 2380 | 2360 | -105 | -30 262 | 2750 | 2950 | -46 | -69 | | 2025/05/07 | 2180 | 2270 | 2390 | 2370 | -99 | -35 272 | 2800 | 2950 | -50 | -61 | | 2025/05/08 | 2180 | 2270 | 2410 | 2370 | -95 | -35 286 ...

| | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/07 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/04/25 | 2080 | 2190 | 2276 | 2300 | -146 | -20 | 98 2750 | 2950 | -44 | -60 | | 2025/04/28 | 2080 | 2220 | 2310 | 2330 | -141 | -20 | 128 2750 | 2950 | -56 | -71 | | 2025/04/29 | 2080 | 2230 | 2320 | 2330 | -125 | -30 | 137 2750 | 2950 | -56 | -71 | | 2025/04/30 | 2110 | 2230 | 2340 | 233 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center on April 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From April 23 - 29, 2025, in Changchun, the price remained 2080; in Weifang, it increased from 2270 to 2320; in Jinzhou, it rose from 2180 to 2230; in Shekou, it stayed at 2330. Corn's basis changed from -144 to -125, and import profit rose from 94 to 137. Starch's basis in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, and processing profit was -71 on April 28 and 29 [2] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short - term, due to tight supply, the spot price will be strong but lacks continuous upward momentum before May Day. In the long - term, insufficient import and domestic grain supply give a strong upward expectation. Future focus will be on supply supplements, new - season planting, and warehouse receipt changes [3] - Starch: The short - term price will stay high due to high procurement costs. In the long - term, limited downstream consumption growth and high inventory restrict price adjustment. It's advisable to short - sell far - month contracts [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From April 23 - 29, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou remained 6260, in Nanning it decreased by 10 to 6210, and in Kunming it dropped by 15 to 6055. The basis in Liuzhou increased by 41 to 324, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil rose by 78, reaching 41 and 226 respectively. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 901 to 32927 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season has started, and the raw sugar price is under pressure. Domestically, the fundamentals are stronger. After July, imports are expected to increase. In the long - term, the raw sugar price will decline with increased Brazilian supply, and the out - of - quota import profit will cap the domestic price [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From April 23 - 29, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 85 to 13790. The import profit of M - grade US cotton was - 309 on April 23 and data was not provided on April 29. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 43 to 12396. The 32S spinning profit increased by 89 to - 404 [7] Market Analysis - Xinjiang's cotton production reached a ten - year high. Poor international trade environment and policy changes affect clothing orders. Weak domestic demand leads to a loose supply - demand situation. Future focus will be on domestic favorable policies, trade war changes, and macro risks [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From April 23 - 29, 2025, egg prices in Hebei and Liaoning decreased by 0.18 to 3.11 and 3.20 respectively. The basis changed from 400 to 331. The prices of substitute products like white - feather broilers, yellow - feather broilers, and pigs were relatively stable [8] Market Analysis - Low egg prices in mid - March led to hen culling and increased consumption. Recently, downstream stocking is almost done, and egg prices in production areas have been reduced. Delayed capacity reduction may be affected by price drops and rising feed costs [8] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From April 23 - 29, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 8200, and that of Shaanxi 70 general apples remained 4.60. The national inventory decreased by 53, Shandong's by 119, and Shaanxi's by 38 [9][10] Market Analysis - Transaction enthusiasm in production areas improved, and the inventory turnover rate increased. Prices in major production areas were stable, and some low - priced products' prices increased. The flowering situation in the production areas is good, and future weather should be monitored [10] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From April 23 - 29, 2025, in Henan Kaifeng, the price decreased from 14.92 to 14.70; in Hubei Xiangyang, it dropped from 14.82 to 14.52. The basis increased from 555 to 770 [10] Market Analysis - After the slowdown of second - fattening, the spot price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure is hard to relieve. The overall strategy is to short - sell on rallies. Wait for opportunities to short - sell unilaterally or conduct reverse spreads [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short term, corn prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation before May Day due to tight supply and weak downstream consumption. In the long term, a potential supply gap may drive prices up [3]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices will stay high due to high procurement costs. In the long term, price adjustment space is limited, and short - selling the far - month prices can be considered [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, raw sugar is under pressure due to the market's anticipation of Brazil's increased production. Domestically, the fundamentals are stronger. After July, imports are expected to increase. In the long term, raw sugar will weaken, and the profit from out - of - quota imports will cap domestic prices [4][5]. - Cotton: With Xinjiang's high yield and poor demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. Attention should be paid to domestic favorable policies, trade - war changes, and macro risks [6]. - Eggs: Although the egg price has rebounded recently, the supply pressure is still large, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - Apples: The trading in production areas has improved, the inventory is moving faster, and the price is stable. Weather during the flowering period should be monitored [11]. - Pigs: The short - term spot price is strong, but the overall idea for 09 and far - month contracts is to short on rallies. Short - term observation is recommended, and 57, 59 positive spreads may still have room [11]. Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while in places like Weifang it increased by 8, and in Shekou by 20. The starch price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are strong but lack continuous upward momentum. Starch has high short - term prices but limited long - term adjustment space [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Liuzhou remained at 6240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 771 [4]. - **Analysis**: International raw sugar is under pressure, while domestic sugar has stronger fundamentals. After July, imports may increase [4][5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 80, and the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 41 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand of cotton is loose due to high yield and poor demand [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Hebei remained unchanged, while in Hubei it increased by 0.06, and the basis increased by 65 [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the egg price has rebounded, supply pressure is large and rebound space is limited [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8200, and the national inventory increased by 29 [10][11]. - **Analysis**: The trading in production areas has improved, and the price is stable. Weather during the flowering period should be monitored [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From April 16 - 22, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 170 [11]. - **Analysis**: The short - term spot price is strong, and the overall strategy for 09 and far - month contracts is to short on rallies [11].