Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) [1] Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 710.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [4] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 is 1.42%, showing a narrowing trend but with a slowdown in the rate of decline in the second half of the year [9] - Non-interest income increased by 5.5% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue growth [10] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.3% and a coverage ratio of 300% [11][12] Revenue and Profitability - The bank's revenue and profit growth accelerated, with revenue growth of 2.3% and net profit growth of 4.7% for the year [5] - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 10.46%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The cost-to-income ratio is 34.4%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Loan and Deposit Growth - The bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The bank's deposits increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits [7] - The county-level business maintained a high growth rate, with loans in this sector increasing by 12.3% year-on-year [6] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The core tier 1 capital ratio is 11.4%, indicating a solid capital position [12] - The bank's risk compensation ability is robust, with a credit cost of 0.55%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous year [11] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased, reflecting effective risk management strategies [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 yuan, respectively [13] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.11 for 2025 [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a current price of 5.10 CNY [1]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 710.6 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.7% [4][5]. - The bank's annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) stands at 10.46%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The bank's net interest income and non-interest income growth rates for the year were 1.6% and 5.5%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for the year were 2.3%, 1.6%, and 4.7%, respectively, with improvements of 1, 0.1, and 1.3 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [5]. - The cost-to-income ratio and credit impairment losses as a percentage of revenue were 34.4% and 18.4%, showing changes of +0.5 and -1.1 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Asset and Loan Growth - By the end of 2024, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year, although these growth rates decreased by 4.6 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of the third quarter [6]. - The bank's loan structure showed a focus on corporate, retail, and bill financing, with significant growth in key sectors such as manufacturing and green loans [6]. Deposit and Liability Management - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 8.2% and 4.7% year-on-year, with total deposits increasing by 1.3 trillion CNY [7]. - The structure of deposits improved, with a notable increase in demand deposits, which accounted for 41% of total deposits by year-end [7]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.42%, narrowing by 18 basis points year-on-year [9]. - Non-interest income reached 129.9 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 5.5%, and the proportion of non-interest income to total revenue decreased slightly [10]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - By the end of 2024, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention rate were 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, both showing slight decreases [11]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 300%, indicating a robust risk mitigation capacity [12]. Capital Adequacy and Dividends - The core tier 1 capital ratio, tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio were 11.4%, 13.6%, and 18.2%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous quarter [12]. - The bank announced a dividend of 84.66 billion CNY for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 30% [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 CNY, respectively [13]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.11 for 2025 [14].

Core Insights - Six major state-owned banks in China reported a combined net profit of 1.4 trillion yuan for 2024, averaging approximately 38.29 billion yuan per day, despite challenges from declining loan market rates and overall market interest rates [1][2] Group 1: Profitability and Performance - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) led with a net profit of 365.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - China Construction Bank (CCB) followed with a net profit of 335.58 billion yuan, up 0.88% year-on-year [1] - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Bank of China (BOC) reported net profits of 282.08 billion yuan and 237.84 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.7% and 2.56% respectively [1] - Bank of Communications (BoCom) and Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) achieved net profits of 93.59 billion yuan and 86.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 0.93% and 0.24% respectively [1] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - The net interest margin (NIM) for the six banks declined, with an average drop of 1 to 19 basis points compared to the previous year [1] - PSBC had the highest NIM at 1.87%, followed by CCB at 1.51% [2] - ICBC, ABC, and BOC had similar NIMs of 1.42%, 1.42%, and 1.40% respectively, while BoCom had the lowest at 1.27% [2] Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Banks are focusing on retail transformation, regional finance, and technology empowerment to achieve differentiated growth despite narrowing NIM and slowing profit growth [2][3] - Management emphasized the importance of stabilizing NIM and enhancing profitability, with strategies including optimizing asset-liability structures and managing loan pricing [2][3] - Looking ahead to 2025, banks anticipate continued NIM pressure but expect the decline to be less severe than in previous years, with a focus on balancing growth and risk management [3]