中国银行业正站在一个新老风险交汇的十字路口。 国信证券于9月29日发布的研究报告《资产质量十五年上市银行不良出清与拨备压力观察》(以下简 称"《报告》")显示，在过去15年中，银行持续进行不良出清，从小微贷款、制造业及批零行业贷款到 后来的房地产开发贷、城投贷款，再到当前的零售贷款。我国银行的不良暴露分摊在较长时期内，而且 是不同领域轮流暴露而非集中爆发，对银行报表的影响被摊薄，实现了软着陆。 《报告》认为，2021年开始房地产行业风险暴露，2023年达到峰值4.42%，而后有所回落，但目前仍处 于较高水平，尚未完全出清。目前包括个人住房贷款、个人消费贷款、信用卡贷款和个人经营性贷款在 内的各类型零售贷款不良率都在上升，零售风险正在暴露当中。 尤为值得关注的是，这一风险轮动的背景下，银行利润表的稳定性并未被轻易打破。报告指出，自2011 年本轮风险周期开启以来，通过各行业不良贷款的"轮流暴露"与出清，叠加银行主动的信贷结构调整和 拨备工具的"削峰填谷"，上市银行得以在不良生成率持续处于0.7%左右较高水平的环境下，维持财务表 现的相对平稳。 一场行业轮动的"压力缓释" 《报告》将2011年定义为本轮银行资产质 ...

以下文章来源于消费方法论 ，作者霍东阳 消费方法论 . 观察者网财经部出品。洞察中国人的消费逻辑。 来源|消费方法论 作者|霍东阳 编辑|张广凯 近日，据澎湃新闻报道，8月底，消费者李先生在大润发沈阳和平店购买的"鑫思琪五仁小月饼"配料表中，赫然标注着食品添加剂"脱氢乙酸钠"。 根据2024年2月发布、2025年2月8日实施的《食品安全国家标准 食品添加剂使用标准》（GB 2760-2024），脱氢乙酸钠已被禁止在月饼、糕点等 焙烤食品中使用。此项禁令有长达一年的缓冲期，意在给足企业调整配方的时间。 李先生将情况反馈给大润发后，超市迟迟未作回复。 直到9月16日市场监管部门介入，大润发工作人员才回应称，问题系员工操作失误所致：今年上架新品时直接复制了去年的产品档案信息，未及时删 除已禁用的添加剂名称，并强调厂家检测报告显示产品中并未添加脱氢乙酸钠。 对于这一解释，李先生仍存疑虑。他当即提出希望对留存的月饼进行检测，但大润发方面后续未再跟进处理。 脱氢乙酸钠作为一种广谱性食品防腐剂，对霉菌和酵母菌有较强抑制作用。但脱氢乙酸及其钠盐会抑制人体内多种氧化酶活性，长期过量摄入可能危 害健康。 《食品标识监督管理办法》 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月29日 资产质量十五年 优于大市 上市银行不良出清与拨备压力观察 不过我们也需要注意，目前上市银行整体的不良生成率边际稳定，但纵 向比较来看，近几年上市银行整体不良生成率在 0.7%左右，仍处于较高 水平，只是比 2015 年的峰值有所回落，并非完全没有资产质量压力。 微观上，不同银行之间资产质量压力、拨备计提压力、存量拨备的利润 维持能力、存量拨备重组情况等表现分化。综合来看，大行及一些城商行 在资产质量和拨备压力方面表现相对更好。 投资建议：我们认为今年是此轮业绩下行周期的尾声，预计明年行业基 本面将有所改善，维持行业"优于大市"评级。个股方面建议关注资产 质量和拨备压力表现较好且估值较低的成都银行、长沙银行、张家港行、 瑞丰银行等。此外，四季度我们从策略角度仍然继续推荐基本面有望率 先走出拐点的优质顺周期个股，包括宁波银行、常熟银行。 风险提示：宏观经济超预期下行可能从多方面影响银行业。 重点公司盈利预测及投资评级 | 公司 | 公司 | 投资 | 收盘价 | 总市值 | EPS | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent investigation of RT-Mart's COO, Guan Mingwu, highlights the internal management issues and the determination of its new owner, Dihon Capital, to implement significant reforms [2][3][6] Company Overview - Dihon Capital took control of Gao Xin Retail (RT-Mart's parent company) approximately seven months ago, initiating a series of reforms including management changes and organizational restructuring to revive the struggling retail giant [5][6] - RT-Mart has faced continuous losses, challenges with its traditional hypermarket model, and difficulties in integrating online and offline operations [5][11] Management Changes - The investigation into Guan Mingwu has caused significant internal upheaval, with multiple store managers being suspended, indicating a systemic anti-corruption effort by Dihon Capital [6][8] - Dihon Capital has replaced key management positions, including appointing new board members and a CEO, Shen Hui, who emphasizes a return to retail fundamentals [9][10] Financial Performance - Under Dihon Capital's management, RT-Mart's financial performance has shown signs of recovery, with a reported revenue of 715.52 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.86 billion RMB for the 2025 fiscal year [19][20] - Despite this improvement, the financial results are closely tied to cost-cutting measures, including the closure of underperforming stores [20][22] Industry Context - The challenges faced by RT-Mart reflect broader trends in the traditional retail sector, where many companies are struggling to adapt to changing consumer preferences and increased competition from e-commerce and new retail formats [17][18] - The retail landscape is shifting towards smaller, more agile formats, with RT-Mart focusing on mid-sized supermarkets and membership stores as part of its transformation strategy [18][19] Strategic Direction - Dihon Capital's strategy involves optimizing the supply chain and enhancing operational efficiency, with a focus on community-centric retail models [10][19] - The company aims to balance cost, efficiency, and service through modern technology and digital tools, while also fostering brand recognition for its new store formats [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its performance in the first half of 2025, with a decline in net profit due to increased expense ratios, despite maintaining mid-single-digit growth in retail [1][2] - The company is focusing on retail transformation and expanding its overseas business, emphasizing consumer-centric strategies and brand health management [3] Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenue of 13,661 million in 2023, with projections of 15,248 million in 2025 and 16,923 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 2.5% in 2023 and an estimated 4.3% in 2025 [1] - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2023 was 1,122 million, expected to decline to 926 million in 2025, with a significant drop of 18.6% year-on-year [1] - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 46.70%, showing a slight increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [2] - **Net Margin**: The net margin for the first half of 2025 was 5.19%, down by 4.05 percentage points year-on-year due to increased expense ratios [2] - **Store Count**: The company opened 540 stores and closed 629 in the first half of 2025, resulting in a total of 8,236 stores by mid-2025 [2] Business Strategy - The company is committed to a consumer-centric approach, focusing on retail transformation and enhancing operational efficiency through improved supply chain capabilities and product development [3] - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with multiple brands entering emerging markets and achieving growth in both online and offline retail channels [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.34, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.4 for 2025, 13.3 for 2026, and 11.4 for 2027 [8]

Core Insights - The rapid expansion of e-commerce platforms like JD.com, Taobao, and Pinduoduo into the Hong Kong market is driving a significant transformation in the city's commercial landscape, centered around the concept of "free shipping" [1] - Traditional shops are adapting by establishing parcel pickup points, which is reshaping consumer habits and the retail environment in Hong Kong [1] E-commerce Trends - Pinduoduo's introduction of free shipping services in Hong Kong has led to a surge in consumer purchases, with one user reporting over 500 items bought, many of which are non-essential [3] - The "free shipping impulse" phenomenon highlights the effectiveness of low-price strategies and emotional marketing in driving consumer behavior [3] - Taobao's "zero-threshold free shipping" policy has nearly doubled user participation since its launch in mid-August [3] Infrastructure Development - The number of parcel pickup points in Hong Kong has surpassed 2,000, covering various traditional business types such as markets and pharmacies [3] - Logistics operators report that private shipping companies charge around 4-5 HKD per kilogram for each package, while e-commerce platforms pay about 2.5 HKD, with pickup points potentially earning up to 18,000 HKD monthly by handling 200 packages daily [3] Business Adaptation - Traditional businesses like "Zheng Ji Fruit Shop" have seen a 50% decline in sales due to reduced tourism, prompting a shift to parcel pickup services, which now account for half of their revenue [4] - The owner of "Zheng Ji Fruit Shop" has diversified by adding a craft beer section to attract more customers through the pickup point [4] - Similarly, a liquor supplier has transformed their warehouse into a pickup point, generating an additional income of 5,000 to 10,000 HKD monthly [6] Retail Industry Challenges - The Hong Kong retail sector is facing deeper challenges, with a projected 3.2% year-on-year decline in total retail sales value for 2024, while online shopping continues to grow [6] - As the growth of online shopping stabilizes, the competition among pickup points is expected to shift towards service differentiation and the conversion of offline traffic into diversified revenue streams [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [8][15]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows steady growth, with white goods domestic sales improving and external tariff impacts becoming evident. Leading brands demonstrate resilience, while cleaning product leaders experience high growth. Increased marketing expenses in discretionary categories have led to a slight decline in profitability. Future outlook suggests that trade-in programs will support domestic demand, and leading brands along with emerging categories will contribute to revenue growth, indicating investment value [4][15]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q2 2025, the home appliance sector's revenue increased by 4.78% year-on-year to 431.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 3.38% to 38.1 billion yuan. The first half of 2025 saw revenue growth of 8.59% to 842.6 billion yuan and net profit growth of 11.23% to 71.2 billion yuan. The cost environment improved due to a decline in raw material prices and shipping costs [19][29]. White Goods - The white goods segment's revenue grew by 4.64% year-on-year to 303.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with net profit increasing by 6.08% to 30.6 billion yuan. Domestic demand is supported by favorable policies and high temperatures driving air conditioning needs. However, external sales showed weakness due to tariff impacts [10][20]. Black Goods - The black goods segment reported a revenue increase of 5.81% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 1.04% to 1.0 billion yuan. The segment faced challenges from fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and varying performance between self-owned brands and OEMs [11][29]. Kitchen Appliances - Kitchen appliance revenue declined by 6.95% year-on-year to 12.4 billion yuan, with net profit down by 16.75% to 1.96 billion yuan. The decline is attributed to sluggish real estate conditions and increased difficulty in subsidy applications [12][19]. Smart Home - The smart home segment experienced a significant revenue increase of 32.09% year-on-year to 12.6 billion yuan, although net profit fell by 12.95% to 1.0 billion yuan due to increased marketing expenditures [13][19]. Traditional Small Appliances - Revenue for traditional small appliances decreased by 0.69% year-on-year to 23.1 billion yuan, with net profit down by 12.44% to 1.3 billion yuan. The segment faced challenges from changing tariff policies and reduced external demand [14][19]. Upstream Performance - The upstream sector saw a revenue increase of 5.07% year-on-year to 29.5 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 12.56% to 2.2 billion yuan. The upstream segment's profitability improved due to better cost management [19][25].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Bank is focusing on retail transformation and risk management in personal loans, achieving significant growth in retail revenue and loan issuance while maintaining asset quality [1][2] Group 1: Retail Transformation - In the first half of the year, Beijing Bank's retail revenue reached 11.081 billion yuan, with net fee and commission income increasing by 8.95% year-on-year [1] - Retail funding scale surpassed 1.3 trillion yuan, growing by 7.28% since the beginning of the year, while savings deposits exceeded 790 billion yuan, up by 6.87% [1] - The bank has actively supported the real estate market, inclusive finance, and consumption recovery, with personal loan issuance nearing 140 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.3% [1] Group 2: Strategic Direction - The bank has outlined a "123456" strategy for the second half of the year, focusing on specialized, intelligent, and ecological development in retail banking [2] - The strategy includes creating a comprehensive financial service model that caters to various life stages, from children's finance to retirement finance [2] - The bank aims to enhance intelligent development through improved channel construction and customer service [2] Group 3: Personal Loan Risk Management - The bank acknowledges that the personal loan asset quality faces temporary pressure, but overall, the non-performing loan level remains controllable [2] - Risk management strategies have shifted from passive responses to proactive defenses, focusing on quality customer selection and real business [2] - The bank employs AI and digital applications to enhance approval efficiency while ensuring quality, alongside effective collection and asset disposal strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector is under pressure, with declining revenue and profit, while retail credit risks are on the rise, prompting banks to explore new transformation paths focused on retail AUM (Assets Under Management) as a key performance indicator [1][2][5]. Group 1: Retail Banking Performance - In the first half of 2025, three banks (Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank) reported retail revenue contributions exceeding 50%, while most banks with a focus on corporate banking had contributions below 40% [2]. - Among 12 sample banks, 10 reported a decline in retail revenue, and 7 saw a decrease in total profit, indicating that the retail business has not yet hit bottom [2]. - Notably, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China CITIC Bank reported significant increases in retail profit, with growth rates of 46.05% and 109.24% respectively [4]. Group 2: Retail AUM Trends - Retail AUM has become a focal point for banks, with the top three banks (ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank) exceeding 20 trillion yuan in retail AUM, and ICBC leading with 24 trillion yuan [5]. - All 13 banks analyzed reported positive growth in retail AUM compared to the beginning of the year, with notable increases from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Ping An Bank [5][6]. - Retail AUM is defined as a comprehensive measure of a bank's retail financial capabilities, including personal deposits, wealth management products, and insurance [5]. Group 3: Wealth Management Strategies - Banks are shifting focus from traditional deposit-based models to wealth management, emphasizing the importance of retail AUM for increasing non-interest income [6][11]. - The growth of retail AUM is expected to support the growth of intermediary business income, as highlighted by China Merchants Bank's strategy to enhance customer retention [9][12]. - Different banks are adopting varied approaches to wealth management, with ICBC focusing on customer coverage and China Bank emphasizing its infrastructure advantages [13][14].

Core Insights - Jiangyin Bank has achieved a "double growth" in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 2.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.45%, and net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to 846 million yuan, up 16.69% year-on-year [1][2] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The significant increase in performance is primarily driven by a substantial rise in investment income, which has seen non-interest income grow for three consecutive years, reaching 999.2 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.26% [2][3] - Investment income alone surged to 882 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an impressive increase of 81.44% compared to the previous year, contributing 36.72% to total operating income [2][3] - The bank's trading financial assets grew from 19.703 billion yuan at the end of the previous year to 25.335 billion yuan by June 2025, reflecting a 28.58% increase [3] Group 2: Challenges Faced - Despite the impressive growth in non-interest income, net interest income has slightly declined by 0.23% to 1.409 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with losses in funding operations widening by 30.71% [4][5] - The bank's fee and commission income also faced pressure, dropping by 35.18% to 50.085 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [5] - Personal loan balances have decreased for two consecutive years, falling to 20.507 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading to a significant decline in personal loan interest income by 18.37% [6] Group 3: Business Focus - The bank's corporate business has also encountered challenges, with corporate revenue declining by 0.76% to 1.051 billion yuan, despite an increase in total corporate assets to 110.586 billion yuan [8] - Jiangyin Bank's corporate loans are heavily focused on the manufacturing sector, which constitutes 31.47% of its loan portfolio, indicating a strong reliance on this industry [8] Group 4: Market Position - Jiangyin Bank's global ranking improved to 506th place, an increase of 26 positions compared to the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of ranking improvement [9] - However, compared to leading regional banks, Jiangyin Bank's retail transformation is lagging, and adjustments are needed in corporate business to enhance support for green technology and innovative enterprises [9][10]