Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in key cities shows a mixed performance in new and second-hand housing transactions, with significant year-on-year growth in transaction volumes but varying price trends across different cities [3][4][5]. New Housing Market - In February 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 30 core cities reached 8.21 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 20.0% [3]. - For the first two months of 2025, the total transaction area was 18.46 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [3]. - The average transaction price for new residential properties in the first two months was 23,769 yuan per square meter, up 7.3% year-on-year [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - In February 2025, the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in 15 core cities was 9.99 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 75.2% [4]. - For the first two months of 2025, the total transaction area was 21.45 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [4]. - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in the first two months was 24,620 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Key Cities Performance - The average transaction price for new homes in key cities for the first two months was as follows: Beijing at 54,385 yuan per square meter (up 21.0%), Shanghai at 77,682 yuan (up 15.7%), Guangzhou at 32,456 yuan (down 13.1%), and Shenzhen at 60,028 yuan (down 5.0%) [5]. - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in key cities was: Beijing at 28,202 yuan per square meter (up 0.2%), Shanghai at 39,150 yuan (up 1.0%), Guangzhou at 27,502 yuan (down 6.2%), and Shenzhen at 58,381 yuan (down 1.8%) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery and growth [4][22]. Core Insights - The new housing market is still in need of recovery, with the investment side being weaker than the sales side. The report suggests that the investment recovery pace will be significantly slower than in previous cycles [4][22]. - The report highlights that the sales side is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of demand recovery driven by proactive policies and urban renewal projects [4][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2025, real estate development investment totaled 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with new starts down 29.6% and construction down 9.1% [5][21]. - The report forecasts a 2025 investment decline of 9.9%, with new starts and completions expected to decrease by 9.7% and 22.6%, respectively [4][22]. Sales Side - The sales area for January-February 2025 was 110 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% [21][33]. - The average selling price increased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in pricing despite overall sales volume decline [32][33]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate developers in January-February 2025 were 1.6 trillion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year, but showing signs of improvement compared to previous months [34][36]. - Domestic loans decreased by 6.1%, while self-raised funds saw a smaller decline of 2.1%, indicating a tightening in funding availability [34][36].