Core Viewpoint - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the importance of improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity in the real estate sector, indicating a shift back to the residential nature of housing as a major consumer good and a necessity for people's lives [2] Group 1: High-Quality Development in Real Estate - The primary focus for high-quality development in real estate is the establishment of foundational institutional frameworks, including independent project development entities and a lead bank system to ensure accountability and financial oversight [2] - The government is actively promoting the current housing sales system, with a projected 30.8% of national housing sales area being current sales by 2024, which fundamentally mitigates delivery risks [3] - A "market + guarantee" supply system is being constructed to address the needs of new citizens, young people, and migrants, who are the main consumers of housing, while also considering their changing income and employment situations [3] Group 2: Quality Standards and Housing Supply - The construction of "good houses" is a key focus, with the implementation of the "Residential Project Standards" that define safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence as essential quality indicators [4] - In the context of a stock market era, the emphasis is on improving operational maintenance quality, including the implementation of housing quality enhancement projects and property service quality improvement actions [5] - A comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is proposed, which includes housing inspections, insurance, and maintenance funds to ensure long-term safety and functionality [5] Group 3: Strategic Shift in Real Estate - The transition to high-quality development in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period has laid a foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on risk prevention and moving away from old models [6] - The real estate sector is expected to play a crucial role in expanding domestic demand, serving as a link in the investment strategy that combines investment in physical assets and human capital [6] - The new supply will be driven by new demands, fostering a positive interaction between consumption and investment, as well as supply and demand, thereby enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic economy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the historical transformation of real estate from being a "urbanization engine" to a "foundation of livelihood," highlighting its significance in the context of improving people's living standards and quality of life [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in real estate policy focus towards enhancing the quality of housing and ensuring it meets the needs of residents, rather than merely expanding supply [4][6]. - The new policy framework includes five specific tasks aimed at high-quality development, including the construction of "good houses" and the establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for housing [1][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market has entered a phase dominated by existing stock, with a shift in housing supply policies from scale-oriented to quality-oriented, addressing the diverse needs of residents [2][6][7]. - Future housing supply policies will be tailored to the capabilities of different cities, with core cities likely to relax restrictions gradually, starting with suburban areas [2][7]. Group 3: Quality and Standards - The introduction of "good houses" as a new standard reflects the need for housing that meets safety, comfort, and sustainability criteria, responding to the evolving demands of various demographic groups [12][13]. - The emphasis on improving housing quality and property services is expected to lead to a more diversified supply system and upgraded product standards [12][13]. Group 4: Lifecycle Management and Safety - The establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is a significant step towards ensuring long-term safety and quality, addressing residents' urgent needs [14][15]. - This system aims to integrate management from design to operation, promoting a proactive approach to housing safety and risk prevention [14][15]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The real estate market is anticipated to experience a contraction in total demand and supply, with a notable increase in demand for improved housing, particularly in high-capacity cities [15]. - The market is transitioning to a phase where second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales, indicating a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing stock [15].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting focus from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to "high-quality development" [2][4] - The plan outlines five key directions for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including optimizing supply, enhancing housing quality, and establishing safety management systems [2][4] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the real estate sector, indicating potential for recovery and growth [2] Key Directions for Development - **New Development Model**: The plan aims to construct a new model for real estate development, focusing on improving regulations around property development, financing, and sales [2][4] - **Optimizing Affordable Housing Supply**: The focus has shifted from merely increasing affordable housing to optimizing its supply to meet the needs of urban workers and disadvantaged families [2][4] - **Increasing Improvement Housing Supply**: The plan emphasizes the need to match existing improvement housing demands more precisely, with a notable increase in larger housing units sold [2][4] - **Quality Housing Initiatives**: The introduction of "good housing" standards aims to enhance the quality and comfort of residential properties, with new regulations set to take effect [2][4] - **Lifecycle Safety Management**: Establishing a comprehensive safety management system for housing throughout its lifecycle is a priority, addressing the safety of older buildings [2][4] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of larger housing units sold, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more spacious homes [7][11] - The urban renewal initiative is expected to accelerate, with substantial investments projected in the coming years [2][4] Policy Implications - The report notes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes measures to clear unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption, particularly in first-tier cities, which may lead to a more favorable market environment [2][4] - The emphasis on revitalizing underutilized land and properties is expected to generate new opportunities in the real estate sector [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of China's real estate development is shifting towards improving people's livelihoods, with "promoting high-quality real estate development" now framed within the context of enhancing and securing living standards [1][11]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new five-year plan emphasizes a strategic upgrade from addressing housing shortages to enhancing living quality and promoting social equity [1]. - The evaluation criteria for the real estate industry will transition from investment and sales scale to meeting people's aspirations for quality housing and better living conditions [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new model for real estate development is prioritized, indicating a necessary shift in the industry [3]. - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters, with the market moving from a focus on new construction to urban renewal [3]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - Comprehensive improvements are needed in the foundational systems of real estate development, financing, and sales [4]. - Key reforms include changes to the pre-sale system, enhancing housing quality, diversifying financing channels such as REITs, and adjusting purchase and loan policies [5]. Group 4: Housing Security - The focus on "housing security" aims to optimize the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic needs of urban workers and disadvantaged families, with over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing planned during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to place greater policy emphasis on the scale, regions, and product structure of affordable housing [9]. Group 5: Market Adaptation - The market is responding to the need for "suitable living conditions," with an increase in the supply of improved housing based on local conditions [10]. - By the third quarter of 2025, the proportion of housing transactions in key cities for larger units (120-144 square meters) is expected to rise to 30%, indicating a shift towards larger homes in the new housing market [10]. Group 6: Industry Implications - Real estate companies must adhere to the principles of "housing security and quality living" by constructing safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, as well as participating in the renovation of old neighborhoods and communities [12]. - The ongoing changes in the market landscape necessitate that the high-quality development of the real estate sector is crucial not only for the companies involved but also for the future living conditions of individuals [12].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: After the rebound, the market will consolidate in the short term [3] Group 3 - Relevant logic: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, proposed to reform and improve real estate development, financing, and sales systems and promote the ready - made housing sales system. From January to September, 24,300 urban old community renovation projects were newly started, and 11 regions completed the annual plan. Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 52.99%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year - on - year; the average start - up rate was 68.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year - on - year [2] - Market performance: Steel products rose first and then fell last week, with the overall center of gravity moving up. The rise was mainly due to macro - level benefits such as the consensus reached in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the macro - level benefits were realized, the fundamentals of the varieties changed little. Although some steel mills in Hebei were restricted due to environmental protection, the weekly supply - demand and inventory changes were neutral, and the low - level downstream situation limited the increase in steel prices [2] - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, which detail six key tasks for achieving this goal [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Six Key Tasks for High-Quality Development - Optimize the supply of affordable housing by establishing a multi-tiered system focused on public rental housing, affordable rental housing, and shared ownership housing, along with a housing guarantee waiting list system [4]. - Promote the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market by creating a mechanism that links people, housing, land, and finance, and optimizing regulatory policies based on population changes [4]. - Reform and improve the systems for real estate development, financing, and sales, including advancing the sale of existing homes and regulating pre-sale fund supervision to mitigate delivery risks [4]. - Implement housing quality enhancement projects aimed at constructing safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, while improving the design, construction, and operational standards of housing [4]. - Enhance property service quality by exploring a model that combines material services with lifestyle services to address residents' everyday needs [4]. - Establish a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing, including safety inspections, management funds, and quality insurance systems [4]. Local Policy Developments - In the past week, 10 provinces and cities have released policies to stabilize the market, covering aspects such as household registration optimization, housing quality improvement, and the revitalization of existing land [5][6]. - Notable local initiatives include: - Xiamen's differentiated household registration policy, allowing for broader access to housing [5]. - Guangzhou's guidelines for "good housing" construction, setting standards for safety, comfort, and environmental sustainability [5]. - Chongqing's innovative approach to revitalizing existing land, allowing for functional changes in commercial office land [5]. - Shenzhen's optimization of non-residential property conversion to affordable rental housing [5]. Policy Trends - The frequency of market stabilization policies has slightly decreased, but the distribution of policy types remains balanced, indicating a potential increase in policies related to affordable housing, urban renewal, and supply-side management [9][10]. - Recent adjustments in housing provident fund policies, such as increasing the repayment ratio from 55% to 60%, reflect ongoing efforts to enhance housing affordability [10][13].

Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities experienced a slight cooling in October after a high performance in September, with a notable divergence in market conditions across different regions [1][2][8] - New home prices showed a slight increase nationally, while the second-hand housing market continued to face downward pressure [5][6] Market Performance - In Beijing, the second-hand housing market saw a significant decline in transactions, with 12,087 units signed in October, down 23.7% month-on-month, while new home transactions were 3,453 units [2] - Shenzhen's total residential transactions (new and second-hand) reached 6,847 units in October, a decrease of 10.3% from the previous month, with new home transactions down 14.1% [2] - Shanghai's second-hand housing market recorded 18,483 transactions in October, a decrease of 9.3%, but showed resilience with a daily average transaction increase of over 10% compared to September [3][4] Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.28% month-on-month to 16,973 yuan per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.84% to 13,268 yuan per square meter [6] - In Shenzhen, the average transaction price for second-hand homes was 58,900 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month [7] - The overall market is experiencing price adjustments, with many cities seeing significant declines in second-hand home prices, particularly in cities like Kunshan and Nanjing [6][7] Market Outlook - The year-end performance of real estate companies is expected to be influenced by increased supply in core cities, which may support new home sales, while second-hand home transactions are anticipated to continue a moderate recovery [8] - The fourth quarter is likely to reveal the effects of market dynamics, with a noticeable year-on-year decline in sales volume for both new and second-hand homes in key cities [8]

Core Insights - The focus of China's real estate development is shifting towards improving people's livelihoods, with "promoting high-quality real estate development" now framed within the context of "enhancing and improving people's livelihoods" [1] - The evaluation criteria for the industry will transition from investment and sales scale to meeting people's aspirations for quality housing and better living conditions [2] Group 1: Industry Direction - The new model for real estate development is prioritized, marking a necessary shift in the industry's evolution [3] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties are expected to be sold, indicating a transition from a focus on new construction to urban renewal and existing housing markets [3] - The adjustment in the market is driven by significant changes in supply and demand relationships, indicating a long-term trend towards balancing new and existing housing [6] Group 2: Policy and Implementation - Comprehensive improvements are needed in the foundational systems of real estate development, financing, and sales [4] - Key areas for development include reforms in the pre-sale system, enhancing housing quality, diversifying financing channels such as REITs, and flexible adjustments to purchase and loan policies [5] Group 3: Housing Supply and Demand - The focus on "guarantee" emphasizes the need for adequate housing, with plans to construct over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing during the "14th Five-Year Plan," benefiting over 30 million people [8] - The "market" aspect aims to increase the supply of improved housing, with data showing that large-sized housing transactions are becoming mainstream in the new housing market [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The inclusion of "high-quality real estate development" in the livelihood guarantee framework determines the main direction for the new model of real estate development [11] - The industry must adhere to the principles of "adequate housing" and "suitable living conditions," as the market dynamics have fundamentally changed, impacting the future of real estate enterprises and individual living standards [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hubei Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued a notice to optimize housing provident fund policies to stabilize the real estate market, including measures such as increasing loan limits and removing restrictions on withdrawals for purchasing homes in different locations [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The notice includes five key measures aimed at meeting residents' rigid and diverse housing needs, such as increasing loan limits and adjusting loan terms [1] - Cities like Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, and Weihai have also introduced similar measures in October to enhance housing provident fund policies [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The real estate market has shown stability in October, with the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities at 16,973 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.28%, while the average price of second-hand homes decreased by 0.84% to 13,268 yuan per square meter [2] - The introduction of policies has created a favorable purchasing environment, leading to an increase in the quality and value of housing options available [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the market, while long-term goals aim for high-quality development in the industry [3] - The end of the year will see real estate companies striving to meet performance targets, with core cities likely to support new home sales through increased supply [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12]. Core Insights - The profitability of real estate companies is currently under pressure due to falling prices of old inventory and unsold properties, making a systemic profit turnaround unlikely in the short term. However, a structural turnaround is anticipated, particularly for new properties post-2022, as land prices have decreased, leading to improved profitability for new inventory starting in 2024. As the peak of old inventory impairment subsides, the proportion of new and recently launched properties in revenue recognition will increase, potentially leading to improved profit margins for some companies by 2027. Despite ongoing market downturns affecting new property sales, there is expected policy support for high-quality developments, suggesting a sustainable structural market for "good properties" [2][10][12]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.88% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.45%. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 12.95%, but still lags behind the CSI 300 by 4.99% [7][15]. Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a one-time personal credit relief policy in early 2026 and has emphasized the need for prudent macro-management of real estate finance. The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines five key directions for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including optimizing housing supply and enhancing the quality of housing and property services [8][17]. Sales Trends - Recent data indicates a widening year-on-year decline in new and second-hand home transactions across sample cities. For instance, new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a rolling year-on-year decline of 35.4%, while second-hand homes in 17 cities declined by 24.3% [9][18]. Structural Market Changes - The current adjustment phase in the real estate cycle is characterized by convergence and differentiation, with some high rental yield cities stabilizing. The profitability of older inventory is under pressure, but new and recently launched properties are expected to see a significant increase in profitability starting in 2024, laying the groundwork for a structural turnaround [10][12].