1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market shows different supply - demand forecasts from various institutions, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market has relatively good consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, but faces challenges from global production increases and potential import impacts. Near - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 - 5600 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. DATAGRO reduced the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, which is much smaller than before. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 260 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient. The 01 contract has significant pressure around 5500 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20 million tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40 - million - ton surplus [4][8][34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: In 2025, as of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons [4][8]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The domestic sugar market shows trends in supply, demand, price, and inventory. For example, the national sugar production, consumption, import, and export data from 2024/25 to 2025/26, as well as the changes in international and domestic sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the main March contract closed down 0.78% to 13.96 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main March contract closed down 0.91% to $412.60 per ton. The raw sugar maintained a volatile market, with a weak rebound as the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries are in the harvest season. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply. The 01 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a reduction of 11,425 positions. The domestic sugar spot price remained flat. The market is waiting for the new sugar to be listed in Guangxi, and there is no obvious bullish or bearish driver for the time being. The rise of Zhengzhou sugar was due to speculative funds, but these funds have started to withdraw, and the previous speculative short - position holders have reduced their positions. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: The SR601 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a position of 370,242 contracts and a reduction of 11,425 contracts. The SR605 contract closed at 5,404 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan or 0.20%, with a position of 122,174 contracts and an increase of 4,427 contracts. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 13.96 cents per pound, down 0.11 cents or 0.78%, with a position of 179,097 contracts and an increase of 6,776 contracts. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.43 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.62%, with a position of 486,827 contracts and a reduction of 1,285 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Market Trends**: The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the London ICE white sugar futures also declined. The raw sugar market is in a volatile state with a weak rebound. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply, and the market is waiting for the new sugar in Guangxi. The rise was due to speculative funds, and now these funds are withdrawing, and short - position holders are reducing positions. It is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesia's Sugar Self - sufficiency Plan**: Indonesia plans to achieve sugar self - sufficiency by 2026, with a goal of consumer sugar self - sufficiency by 2028 and full self - sufficiency including industrial and ethanol demand by 2030. The president has urged the acceleration of this schedule [11]. - **Sugar Mill Start - up in Yunnan**: As of now, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year. The planned design capacity of the started sugar mills is 13,200 tons per day, an increase of 9,700 tons per day compared to the same period last year [11]. - **Global Sugar Surplus Adjustment**: DATAGRO adjusted the global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (starting in October) from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, due to the sugar production reduction in Brazil and India. The sugar production forecast in the central - southern region of Brazil was revised from 41.1 million tons to 40.8 million tons, and the sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was adjusted from 51.6% to 51.2% [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Transaction Data of the Top 20 Seats in the Main Contract of Zhengzhou Sugar**: The total trading volume was 217,607 lots, a decrease of 53,457 lots; the total long - position volume was 250,939 lots, a decrease of 6,309 lots; the total short - position volume was 285,700 lots, a decrease of 12,297 lots [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting a supply surplus. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is relatively resistant to decline compared to the foreign sugar market, and the near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 255 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, foreign sugar prices have been falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar has been relatively resistant to decline. The near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 620,000 - ton surplus (another mention is 750,000 tons), Datagro expects a 153,000 - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420,000 - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115,000 - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Costs**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5,086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.08 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5,679 - 5,708 yuan per ton [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. The fundamentals of raw sugar are weak, and the long - term trend is downward. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [11][12] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for the domestic market, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,403 with an increase of 5 (0.09%), trading volume of 1,703 (an increase of 116), and an open interest of 10,961 (a decrease of 108); SR01 closed at 5,475 with an increase of 18 (0.33%), trading volume of 139,545 (a decrease of 1,192), and an open interest of 373,243 (an increase of 1,282); SR05 closed at 5,405 with an increase of 8 (0.15%), trading volume of 21,900 (an increase of 6,805), and an open interest of 115,922 (an increase of 2,673) [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,730, 5,905, 6,000, 5,760, 6,015, 5,820, and 6,130 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, while others remained unchanged [6] - **Basis**: The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 255, 430, 525, 285, 540, 345, and 655 respectively [6] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 70 (a decrease of 10), SR09 - SR5 spread was - 2 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 72 (a decrease of 13) [6] - **Import Profit**: The quota - within price and quota - outside price for Brazilian imports were 3,952 and 5,002 respectively, with a spread of 728 compared to Liuzhou, 818 compared to Rizhao, and 473 compared to the futures price; for Thai imports, the quota - within price and quota - outside price were 4,007 and 5,075 respectively, with a spread of 655 compared to Liuzhou, 745 compared to Rizhao, and 400 compared to the futures price [6] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India allows 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, lower than the industry's request of 2 million tons, and cancels the 50% export tariff on molasses; the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi starts no earlier than November 30, and enterprises need to abide by relevant regulations; the FAO sugar price index in October was 94.1, down 5.3 points (5.3%) from September and 35.4 points (27.4%) year - on - year, reaching the lowest level since December 2020 [8][9][10] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is at a historically high level, the support of ethanol for sugar weakens, and India's sugar exports may be higher than expected, so the raw sugar fundamentals are weak. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar supply is expected to increase, but the import of syrup and premixed powder is tightened, and the previous pricing cost is relatively high, so the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and be weak in the long term [11][12] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, the international sugar price resumes the downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile, so it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations; for the arbitrage strategy, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for the options strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratio trends in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, basis and inter - monthly spreads of different contract months [16][17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The SR2501 contract is less than 2 months away from the delivery month, showing a premium over the 03 contract. It's stronger than the overseas market due to high old - sugar prices, cost support, and expected future import increases leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the contango of far - month contracts may widen as the crushing progresses. Import pressure may increase unless quota issuance is reduced or imports are restricted [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - Spot prices: Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, and Kunming is 5580 - 5740 yuan/ton [3] - China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, 150,000 tons more year - on - year. The cumulative import in the 24/25 season was 4.63 million tons, 120,000 tons less year - on - year [3] - The 25/26 season's national sugar production is estimated to increase to 1.17 million tons, with Guangxi at 680,000 tons, Yunnan at 260,000 tons, Guangdong at 60,000 tons, Inner Mongolia at 70,000 tons, and Xinjiang at 75,000 tons [3] - Zhanjiang sugar mills in the 25/26 season are expected to start crushing in late November. The first sugar mill in the 24/25 season started on November 30. The sugar cane purchase price in Guangdong may drop by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and production is expected to fall from 654,500 tons to about 600,000 tons [3] International Market - Brazil exported 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, with a daily average of 191,100 tons, a 13% increase from the previous month [4] - In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 3.4037 million tons of sugar cane, a 0.3% year - on - year increase. Sugar production reached 248,400 tons, a 1.25% increase. Ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a 1.17% decrease. The proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% last year [4] - ISMA estimates India's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 3.435 million tons (including ethanol), with 340,000 tons for ethanol [4] Price and Spread Information Futures - On November 10, 2025, the closing prices and spreads of SR contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) are provided, with no price changes on that day [6] Spot - On October 30, 2025, spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, etc., and their price changes and spreads are presented [8] Basis - On November 10, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning, Kunming and SR contracts are given [9][11] Import Price - On November 6, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices from Brazil and Thailand, and their price changes, as well as the spreads with domestic prices are shown [12]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: White Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,390, down 3 (-0.06%), volume 4,309 (increase of 1,685), open interest 11,206 (increase of 1,462) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,448, up 7 (0.13%), volume 155,276 (decrease of 29,200), open interest 372,447 (increase of 4,955) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,388, down 5 (-0.09%), volume 24,379 (decrease of 6,357), open interest 113,419 (increase of 5,455) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,720, Kunming 5,905, Wuhan 6,000, Nanning 0, Bayuquan 6,015, Rizhao 5,820, Xi'an 6,130, all unchanged from the previous day [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 272, Kunming 457, Wuhan 552, Nanning -5448, Bayuquan 567, Rizhao 372, Xi'an 682 [5] Monthly Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -60, down 12; SR09 - SR5: Spread 2, up 2; SR09 - SR01: Spread -58, down 10 [5] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 14.12, premium (0.46), freight 42.25, quota - in price 3,893, out - of - quota price 4,941, spread with Liuzhou 779, spread with Rizhao 879, spread with futures 507 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 14.12, premium 0.89, freight 18.00, quota - in price 3,958, out - of - quota price 5,026, spread with Liuzhou 694, spread with Rizhao 794, spread with futures 422 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - In India, protests in Kolhapur, Maharashtra, over sugarcane prices have escalated, disrupting sugarcane harvesting and transportation, and many sugar mills have not started operations [7] - Some sugar groups in China have completed inventory clearance for the 24/25 and 23/24 seasons, and Guangxi is expected to start the 25/26 sugar - making season next week [7] - Processed sugar prices are stable with average trading volume [8] Logical Analysis - Internationally, major sugar - producing regions are increasing production. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a historically high level, and India may export nearly 2 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak, and the long - term trend is downward [9] - Domestically, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have fallen significantly. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous pricing costs, there is some support for domestic sugar prices. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, prices are expected to be weak but with limited downward space [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have resumed their downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range (sell high, buy low) [11] - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar [11] - Options: Observe [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratios, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, white sugar basis for different months, and Zhengzhou sugar spreads for different contract months [13][14][18]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 6, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with an open interest of 367,492 contracts, a decrease of 1,330 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,393 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 0.75%, with an open interest of 107,964 contracts, an increase of 5,015 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents or 3.00%, with an open interest of 478,904 contracts, an increase of 3,720 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 13.82 cents/pound, down 0.41 cents or 2.88%, with an open interest of 166,382 contracts, an increase of 1,289 contracts [7] Market Analysis - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures fell sharply. The ICE London white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton. Overseas financial markets were volatile overnight. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, leading to a government shutdown, which cast a shadow over the economic outlook. The US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks and commodities generally declined, dragging down raw sugar - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with a decrease of 1,330 contracts in positions. Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,730 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar was quoted at 5,580 yuan/ton. The domestic market fundamentals were stable. Zhengzhou sugar followed the decline of raw sugar, indicating that it was difficult to break through the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level. From a capital perspective, speculative short - sellers significantly increased their positions [7][8] 3. Industry News Brazil - Conab reported that from 2024 to the first half of 2025, adverse climate conditions such as water shortages, unstable rainfall, and high temperatures in the sugarcane - growing season in central - southern Brazil affected the 2025/26 sugarcane production - In 2025/26, Brazil's sugarcane planting area is expected to be 8.97 million hectares, a 2.4% increase from 2024/25. However, the average yield per hectare is expected to be 74.26 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. The increase in planting area cannot offset the loss caused by the decline in yield per hectare - The estimated sugarcane production in the current season is 666.4 million tons, a 1.6% decrease from 2024/25 and a 0.4% decrease from the previous forecast of 668.8 million tons. Despite the decrease in sugarcane supply, Conab still expects sugar production to be 45 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase, which would be the second - highest in history after the 2023/24 season's 45.68 million tons - The total production of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 36.2 billion liters, a 2.8% year - on - year decrease. The decrease is mainly due to a 9.5% reduction in sugarcane ethanol production (expected to drop to 26.55 billion liters), while corn ethanol production is expected to increase by 22.6% to 9.61 billion liters. Among the total, anhydrous ethanol is expected to be 13.58 billion liters, and hydrous ethanol is expected to be 22.16 billion liters [9] India - On November 4, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the first sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons. After deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [10] 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][13][14][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international raw sugar market has a weak fundamental outlook with a downward trend due to high sugar production in Brazil, a lower support level for sugar from ethanol as Brazil cuts oil prices, and potentially higher - than - expected sugar exports from India [10]. - The domestic white sugar market has a weak fundamental situation as well, but considering factors such as sugar mills starting to crush and tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [11]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for the domestic market, an arbitrage strategy of shorting foreign sugar and going long on Zhengzhou sugar, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,393 with a decline of 42 points (-0.77%), SR01 at 5,441 with a decline of 40 points (-0.73%), and SR05 at 5,393 with a decline of 38 points (-0.70%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of white sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan decreased to varying degrees. The basis between spot and futures prices was positive in all regions [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of 2, the SR09 - SR5 spread was 0 with a change of - 4, and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 48 with a change of - 2 [6]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - in price was 3914, the quota - out price was 4968, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were 752, 852, and 473 respectively. For Thai imports, the quota - in price was 3979, the quota - out price was 5053, and the corresponding spreads were 667, 767, and 388 [6]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India's 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 3435 million tons (excluding ethanol use) and 3095 million tons (net production after ethanol use), with potential exports of nearly 2 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is slightly higher than the previous estimate, while the ethanol production shows mixed changes [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to high production in Brazil and potential high exports from India. Domestically, although the fundamentals are weak, short - term price fluctuations are expected [10][11]. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Trade within a range for the domestic market [12]. - Arbitrage: Short foreign sugar and go long on Zhengzhou sugar [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The part includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, and various basis and spreads [14][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The long - term divergence between domestic and international sugar prices is unsustainable. There is significant pressure above 5500 for the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar. The probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases, suggesting a short - term volatile and bearish outlook [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 3601.6 million tons of sugar in the current season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply: Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a surplus of 277 million tons; ISO expected a supply gap of 23.1 million tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. In 2025, China's sugar - related data showed a complex situation: by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons, while the import of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 13.51 million tons to 15.14 million tons. Overall, the fundamental situation is bearish [4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, with a basis of 249 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, a neutral situation [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include increased global sugar production, expected supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecasts**: Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply. For example, the ISO in September 2025 predicted a supply gap narrowing to 20 million tons; StoneX in the same month expected a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow in August 2025 forecast a surplus of 620 million tons (also mentioned 750 million tons elsewhere); Datagro in September 2025 predicted a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics in August 2025 expected a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus in July 2025 forecast a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool in July 2025 predicted a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, China's sugar - related data such as sugar - cane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are relatively stable. The import volume is expected to be 500 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 1590 million tons in 2025/26. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [44]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In early October, the progress of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil slowed down significantly, indicating a weakening production rhythm in the later stage of crushing [2]. - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is 174,500 tons, and the import volume is expected to decrease month - on - month. Affected by news such as syrup and premixed powder, there is support at the lower level. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position is 368,822 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,432, a decrease of 30; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,848 lots, an increase of 2,894 lots [2]. - The total forecast of valid warehouse receipts for sugar is 1,586, an increase of 1,000 [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,057 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,139 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.52%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.32%, an increase of 0.08% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.46%, an increase of 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, a decrease of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a total of 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.22 cents, or 1.50%, to settle at 14.65 cents per pound. The sugarcane harvest in northern Brazil is progressing slowly, while sugar mills in the central - southern region are still gradually shutting down [2]. - In the first half of October 2025, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year [2]. - As of October 16 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 524.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].