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金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251222
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 01:57
金属期权 2025-12-22 金属期权策略早报 | 表1:标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2602 | 93,560 | 840 | 0.91 | 17.27 | 1.27 | 23.77 | 0.64 | | 铝 | AL2602 | 22,245 | 205 | 0.93 | 22.56 | 3.72 | 31.51 | 2.09 | | 锌 | ZN2602 | 23,090 | 70 | 0.30 | 8.84 | 0.20 | 8.64 | 0.26 | | 铅 | PB2602 | 17,005 | 155 | 0.92 | 5.65 | 2.52 | 6.22 | 0.65 | | 镍 | NI2602 | 117,430 | 1,170 | 1.01 | 16.58 | 10.28 ...
波动率数据日报-20251219
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:43
波动率数据日报 永安期货期权总部 更新时间:2025/12/19 1、金融期权隐含波动率指数反映截止上一交易日的30日隐波走势,商品期权隐含波动 率指数通过主力月平值期权上下两档隐波加权所得,反映主力合约的隐波变化趋势。2 隐波指数与历史波动率的差值,差值越大反映隐波相对历史波动率越高,差值越小代 表隐波相对历史波动率越低。 70 -300股指 IV -- 300股指 HV IV-HV美 IV-HV美 - 50ETF IV - 50ETF HV 20 BO IV-HV差 -- 1000股指 IV -- 1000股指 HV - 500ETF HV - 500ETF IV V-HV 70 10 20 10 白银 IV IV-HV美 IV-HV旁 nt IN HT HV STSNIF 60 -豆粕 IV 空期 HV IV-HV差 -王米IV 玉米 HV IV-HV差 30 50 20 30 40 10 D 10 TO 10 40 10 30 40 日糖 HV 三 # IV 75 30 5 棉花 IV 棉花 HV IV-HV差 25 20 20 20 10 15 UI 0 10 TO 10 20 15 5 UT 30 ...
震荡末期如何布局?能负成本建仓,双向获利的波动率策略——Short Butterfly Spread卖出蝶式价差 (第二十二期)
贝塔投资智库· 2025-12-19 04:00
你是否遇到过这些交易困境: 判断会有大波动,但买入跨式组合(Straddle)成本太高? 预感股价会突破,但不知道向上还是向下? 点击蓝字,关注我们 错过了低位建仓,现在横盘不知如何布局? 本文介绍的Short Butterfly Spread,正是为这些场景量身定制的解决方案。同时实现了负成本(建仓时就有现金流),双向盈利(涨跌都赚), 高灵活性 (到期前可拆腿调整)。 卖出1个较低行权价(X1)的Call, 获得权利金(C1) 卖出1个较高行权价(X3)的Call,获得权利金(C3) 买入2个 中间行权价(X2)的Call,支付权利金2*C2 行权价关系上: X2 = (X1 + X3)/2 卖出蝶式价差Short Butterfly Spread - 搏股价小幅波动 策略组成: 同时涉及到3种期权的交易: 即买入期权的行权价为其它两个卖出期权行权价的平均数 初始权利金 净收入 = C1 + C3 - 2*C2 注意交易数量比: Call1(卖出) : Call3(卖出): Call2(买入) = 1: 1: 2 所有期权 到期日相同 策略特点 1、盈亏比较低、但是胜率较高的中性策略(见后文实例讲解)。 ...
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251219
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 00:07
Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report - Core Viewpoints: Build different option strategies for non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals based on their market trends and option factors [2] Group 2: Market Overview Futures Market - The non - ferrous metals showed a mostly upward trend, the black metals maintained high - volatility trends, and the precious metals rebounded [2]. - Specific futures prices, trading volumes, and position changes of various metals are provided in Table 1 [3]. Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR: The PCR values of different metal options are presented in Table 2, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the underlying asset markets [4]. - Pressure and Support Levels: The pressure and support levels of different metal options are shown in Table 3, determined by the strike prices of the maximum call and put option positions [5]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility data of different metal options are provided in Table 4, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Fundamental Analysis: The inventories of the three major exchanges increased by 11,000 tons month - on - month [7]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai copper showed a bullish trend with support below [7]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the historical average, and the position PCR indicated strong support below [7]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. Aluminum - Fundamental Analysis: The aluminum ingot inventory decreased, while the bonded area inventory increased [9]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a bullish trend with rapid declines [9]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the historical average, and the position PCR indicated strong pressure above [9]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. Zinc - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures and overseas inventory data are provided [9]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai zinc showed an upward - biased trend with pressure above [9]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the historical average, and the position PCR indicated a short - term strong trend [9]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. Nickel - Fundamental Analysis: The global nickel apparent inventory increased, and the demand for intermediate products weakened [10]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai nickel showed a weak - biased volatile trend with pressure above [10]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was above the average, and the position PCR indicated a weak - biased trend [10]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a short - biased delta and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. Tin - Fundamental Analysis: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and the raw material supply for smelting enterprises was tight [10]. - Market Analysis: The price of Shanghai tin showed a short - term high - volatility bullish trend with support below [10]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a high historical level, and the position PCR indicated strong support below [10]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Analysis: The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [11]. - Market Analysis: The price of lithium carbonate showed a bullish trend with large fluctuations and strong support below [11]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility increased rapidly and remained at a high level, and the position PCR indicated increasing bullish strength [11]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. Precious Metals Silver - Fundamental Analysis: The de - stocking of COMEX silver slowed down, while the LBMA silver inventory increased [12]. - Market Analysis: The price of silver showed a bullish trend with rebounds after declines [12]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a high historical level, and the position PCR indicated strong support below [12]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [12]. Black Metals Rebar - Fundamental Analysis: The total inventory of rebar decreased, with a decline in both social and factory inventories [13]. - Market Analysis: The price of rebar showed a weak - biased volatile trend with pressure above [13]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was below the historical average, and the position PCR indicated strong short - side pressure above [13]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a short - biased delta and a spot covered - call strategy [13]. Iron Ore - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased, and the daily discharge volume decreased slightly [13]. - Market Analysis: The price of iron ore showed a weak - biased volatile trend with support below and pressure above [13]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was below the historical average, and the position PCR indicated short - term support below [13]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamental Analysis: The weekly output of manganese silicon was stable, and the apparent inventory was at a high level [14]. - Market Analysis: The price of manganese silicon showed a weak - biased trend with a rebound [14]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a low historical level, and the position PCR indicated a weak market under short - side pressure [14]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. Industrial Silicon - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of industrial silicon increased, including factory, market, and registered warehouse receipt inventories [14]. - Market Analysis: The price of industrial silicon showed a weak - biased volatile trend with pressure above [14]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was around the average, and the position PCR indicated a weak - biased volatile trend [14]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [14]. Glass - Fundamental Analysis: The inventory of float glass decreased, including the national and Shahe area inventories [15]. - Market Analysis: The price of glass showed a weak - biased trend with a rebound after over - selling [15]. - Option Factor Analysis: The implied volatility was at a high historical level, and the position PCR indicated a weak market [15]. - Strategy Recommendations: Build a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251218
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 02:24
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 - Report Summary: The report provides an analysis of the metal options market, including the performance of various metal futures, option factors, and trading strategies [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The有色金属 sector is expected to move upward, and a neutral volatility strategy for sellers is recommended [2] - The黑色系 sector is expected to maintain high volatility, and a short volatility strategy is recommended [2] - The贵金属 sector is expected to rebound, and a bull spread strategy is recommended [2] Group 4: Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2601): The latest price is 92,680, up 380 (0.41%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 6.63 million lots, down 3.58 million lots, and the open interest is 13.65 million lots, down 0.93 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2601): The latest price is 21,985, up 145 (0.66%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.34 million lots, down 2.73 million lots, and the open interest is 12.40 million lots, down 0.85 million lots [3] - Zinc (ZN2601): The latest price is 23,045, up 135 (0.59%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 12.06 million lots, down 1.80 million lots, and the open interest is 5.92 million lots, down 1.40 million lots [3] - Lead (PB2601): The latest price is 16,825, up 55 (0.33%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.02 million lots, down 0.05 million lots, and the open interest is 2.69 million lots, down 0.28 million lots [3] - Nickel (NI2601): The latest price is 113,300, up 570 (0.51%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 13.96 million lots, down 1.77 million lots, and the open interest is 9.41 million lots, down 1.15 million lots [3] - Tin (SN2601): The latest price is 334,240, up 9,230 (2.84%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 16.68 million lots, down 5.58 million lots, and the open interest is 3.21 million lots, down 0.02 million lots [3] - Alumina (AO2601): The latest price is 2,573, up 23 (0.90%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 19.30 million lots, down 9.09 million lots, and the open interest is 18.04 million lots, down 1.05 million lots [3] - Gold (AU2602): The latest price is 982.48, up 5.18 (0.53%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 27.59 million lots, down 1.80 million lots, and the open interest is 19.71 million lots, up 0.09 million lots [3] - Silver (AG2602): The latest price is 15,594, up 589 (3.93%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 162.71 million lots, up 5.57 million lots, and the open interest is 38.90 million lots, up 2.49 million lots [3] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2602): The latest price is 106,900, up 7,560 (7.61%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 3.36 million lots, up 2.37 million lots, and the open interest is 3.36 million lots, down 0.06 million lots [3] - Industrial Silicon (SI2602): The latest price is 8,480, up 50 (0.59%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.29 million lots, up 1.59 million lots, and the open interest is 9.10 million lots, down 0.06 million lots [3] - Polysilicon (PS2602): The latest price is 62,175, up 2,490 (4.17%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.47 million lots, up 1.45 million lots, and the open interest is 3.58 million lots, down 0.19 million lots [3] - Rebar (RB2601): The latest price is 3,130, up 35 (1.13%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 6.27 million lots, down 1.26 million lots, and the open interest is 22.66 million lots, down 1.52 million lots [3] - Iron Ore (I2602): The latest price is 793.00, up 12.00 (1.54%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 0.55 million lots, down 0.03 million lots, and the open interest is 7.18 million lots, down 0.02 million lots [3] - Manganese Silicon (SM2602): The latest price is 5,744, up 2 (0.03%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 1.65 million lots, up 0.06 million lots, and the open interest is 2.96 million lots, down 0.09 million lots [3] - Silicon Iron (SF2602): The latest price is 5,428, up 50 (0.93%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 5.39 million lots, up 0.50 million lots, and the open interest is 3.79 million lots, up 0.22 million lots [3] - Glass (FG2602): The latest price is 1,013, up 17 (1.71%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 2.90 million lots, up 0.59 million lots, and the open interest is 4.11 million lots, up 0.05 million lots [3] Group 5: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Implied Volatility - The implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of the future volatility of the underlying asset [6] Group 6: Strategy Recommendations Copper Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [7] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value returns [7] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [7] Aluminum Options - Directional Strategy: None [9] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [9] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [9] Zinc Options - Directional Strategy: None [9] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [9] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [9] Nickel Options - Directional Strategy: None [10] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [10] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a covered call strategy by holding a long position in the spot market and selling call options [10] Tin Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [10] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value returns [10] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [10] Lithium Carbonate Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [11] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [11] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [11] Silver Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [12] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [12] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [12] Rebar Options - Directional Strategy: None [13] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [13] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a covered call strategy by holding a long position in the spot market and selling call options [13] Iron Ore Options - Directional Strategy: None [13] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [13] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a long collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [13] Manganese Silicon Options - Directional Strategy: None [14] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value returns [14] - Spot Hedging Strategy: None [14] Industrial Silicon Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy using put options to obtain directional returns [14] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [14] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [14] Glass Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy using put options to obtain directional returns [15] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [15] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a long collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [15]
能源化工期权:能源化工期权策略早报-20251218
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 02:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For selected varieties in each sector, the report provides option strategies and suggestions based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [10]. - The general strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 427, with a price increase of 3 and a price change percentage of 0.73%, trading volume of 9.47 million lots, volume change of 4.62 million lots, open interest of 3.91 million lots, and open interest change of 0.45 million lots [5]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The report shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties. For instance, the trading volume PCR of crude oil is 0.88, with a change of 0.05, and the open interest PCR is 0.73, with a change of - 0.05 [6]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - It provides the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various option varieties. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540 with an offset of 0, and the support point is 400 with an offset of - 40 [7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.75%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.19% with a change of 0.34% [8]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions for Different Varieties 3.5.1 Energy Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent decline in oil prices, shale oil production has changed little. Refineries have strengthened the diesel output rate due to arbitrage demand, and the overall on - balance - sheet inventory remains healthy. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, Libya's exports have recovered rapidly, CPC Terminal's exports remain weak, and Russia's exports are not hindered. The crude oil market showed a weak trend in December after a rebound in November [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates below the average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 540 and the support point is 430 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional gains, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Energy Options: LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The number of LPG warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week. The supply side has seen a slight increase in the arrival volume, and port inventory has accumulated. On the chemical demand side, the start - up rate of PDH has increased this week, but there are rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand is weakening. The LPG market showed a weak and volatile downward trend in December [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuates around the average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 4500 and the support point is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional gains, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Last week's inventory was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of production enterprises is 35.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month, and at a low level year - on - year. The methanol market showed a weak trend with a rebound and then a decline [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 2300 and the support point is 2000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Other Varieties - Similar analysis and strategy recommendations are provided for other varieties such as ethylene glycol, PVC, rubber, PTA, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea, including underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [12][13][14][15].
金属期权策略早报-20251217
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 00:39
1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Metal Option Strategy Morning Report" dated December 17, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers [2] - For the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, construct a short - volatility combination strategy [2] - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread combination strategy [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - It shows the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different metal options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the option underlying are presented [5] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - It includes the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of different metal options [6] 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metals 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and also a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] 3.3.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - option combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy; for glass, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [14][15]
金属期权:金属期权策略早报-20251216
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, they are trending upwards, and a neutral volatility strategy for sellers is recommended; for the black series, the market shows significant fluctuations, suitable for constructing a short - volatility combination strategy; for precious metals, they are rebounding, and a bull spread combination strategy is advisable [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different metal futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, copper (CU2601) has a latest price of 92,390, a decline of 180 (-0.19%), a trading volume of 18.34 million lots, and an open interest of 16.58 million lots with a decrease of 2.28 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.59 with a change of 0.21, and the open interest PCR is 0.80 with a change of - 0.09 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different options are analyzed. For example, the pressure point of copper is 94,000 and the support point is 90,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 16.98%, and the weighted implied volatility is 21.44% with a change of - 0.11 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are proposed [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy are recommended [10]. - **Tin**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy are advised [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [11]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. 3.3.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot covered call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are proposed [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, a short - volatility strategy is recommended; for industrial silicon, a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy are advised; for glass, a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [14][15].
能源化工期权:能源化工期权策略早报-20251216
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 02:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios with a focus on sellers and using spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented, including details on their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 432, down 6 with a decline of 1.26%, trading volume of 3.30 million lots (down 0.33 million lots), and open interest of 3.18 million lots (up 0.37 million lots) [5]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) are used to analyze option - underlying market trends. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil is 0.72 (up 0.12), and the volume PCR is 0.79 (down 0.11), which helps describe the strength of the option - underlying market and potential turning points [6]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option - underlying assets are determined based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540, and the support point is 430 [7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 23.27%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.19% (down 3.17%) [8]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Crude Oil**: - Fundamental analysis shows stable and rising demand from US refineries, with little change in shale oil production during the recent price decline. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, and Libya's exports have recovered rapidly [9]. - Market analysis indicates a weak overall trend, with a sharp decline in October, followed by a rebound, and then a significant drop in December [9]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 540 and 430 respectively [9]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **LPG**: - Fundamental analysis shows a slight increase in warehouse receipts and port inventories, and the demand may weaken due to potential maintenance plans and current losses [11]. - Market analysis shows an overall downward and volatile trend, with a sharp drop in December [11]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is around the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4200 and 4000 respectively [11]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Methanol**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in inventory due to a decline in arrivals [11]. - Market analysis shows a weak overall trend, with a rebound and then a decline [11]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2300 and 2000 respectively [11]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decline in polyester load and an increase in port inventory [12]. - Market analysis shows a continuous weak and downward trend since August, with an accelerated decline in December [12]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is above the average and rising, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3800 and 3600 respectively [12]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **PVC**: - Fundamental analysis shows an increase in overall inventory [12]. - Market analysis shows a continuous downward trend since July, with a short - term rebound after an over - decline in December [12]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility has decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 6200 and 4100 respectively [12]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Rubber**: - Fundamental analysis shows normal demand for all - steel tires and weakening demand for semi - steel tires in the European market. There is a transformation from explicit to implicit inventory [13]. - Market analysis shows a weak and volatile trend [13]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is approaching the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 16000 and 15000 respectively [13]. - Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination for time - value and directional returns [13]. - **PTA**: - Fundamental analysis shows a low overall load and little change in domestic installations [13]. - Market analysis shows a weak trend with a slight rebound and then a decline [13]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 4850 and 4600 respectively [13]. - Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination for time - value returns [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: - Fundamental analysis shows an increase in the average utilization rate of large - scale caustic soda enterprises [14]. - Market analysis shows a continuous downward trend since August [14]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is at a high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2320 and 2000 respectively [14]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in factory inventory [14]. - Market analysis shows a weak and volatile trend since mid - September [14]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 1300 and 1100 respectively [14]. - Strategies include constructing a bearish spread, a short - volatility combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Urea**: - Fundamental analysis shows a decrease in enterprise inventory and an increase in port inventory [15]. - Market analysis shows a short - term weak trend, with a decline in December after a rebound [15]. - Option factor research reveals that the implied volatility is below the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 1700 and 1640 respectively [15]. - Strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15].
Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Labcorp Holdings Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-12-15 15:01
Investors in Labcorp Holdings Inc. (LH) need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Feb 20, 2026 $135 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.What is Implied Volatility?Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future. Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other. It could als ...