Core Insights - Brazil's central bank president, Gabriel Galipolo, indicated that China is exporting "disinflation or even deflation" to Brazil through a surge in low-cost imports, which is easing inflation in the short term [1][3] - The increase in Brazilian imports from China, coupled with falling prices, is seen as a response to deeper imbalances in global trade [1][3] Economic Impact - Galipolo noted that the influx of cheaper Chinese goods is offsetting potential negative impacts on Brazil's current account deficit and inflation [2] - Disinflation and deflation are viewed as signs of weakening demand, which can discourage investment and spending, potentially harming economic growth [3] Trade Dynamics - China's industrial oversupply, resulting from a shift in investment from property construction to manufacturing, has led to factories producing more than domestic demand [3][4] - The trend of lower-priced imports from China helps restrain inflation in Brazil, allowing the central bank to maintain stable interest rates, but it also poses challenges for local manufacturers who struggle to compete on price [4] Policy Response - In response to the influx of low-cost imports, Brazil introduced the "blouse tax" in 2024, which imposes a 20% tax on international purchases under US$50, along with a state value-added tax of about 17% [5] - The government aims to level the playing field for domestic retailers and increase revenue, although critics argue it may make online goods unaffordable for low-income consumers [5][6] E-commerce Adaptation - Major e-commerce firms, such as Shopee, have had to adapt to the new tax regime by building distribution centers in Brazil and sourcing most of their sales from local sellers [6]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Capital Expenditure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, specifically the **nominal Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**, which is experiencing a significant contraction. This trend raises concerns among investors regarding the implications for deflation and overall economic health [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Contraction of Nominal FAI - China's nominal FAI is broadly contracting, with notable declines in the **real estate**, **manufacturing**, and **infrastructure** sectors. The FAI growth rate for real estate has dropped to **-24.1%** year-on-year as of October 2025, while infrastructure and manufacturing also show significant downturns [5][10][31]. Future Scenarios for FAI - Three potential scenarios for the future trajectory of nominal FAI are outlined: 1. **Baseline Scenario**: Infrastructure investment rebounds, exports improve moderately, and consumption receives some support, leading to a slight alleviation of deflationary pressures [10][48]. 2. **Weak FAI with Strong Exports**: Nominal FAI remains weak, but a strong recovery in global demand boosts exports significantly, potentially stabilizing the economy [49]. 3. **Continued Weakness**: Both nominal FAI and exports remain weak, with no substantial consumer stimulus, leading to deeper economic slowdown and increased deflationary pressures [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Infrastructure FAI**: The growth rate has sharply declined to **-12.1%** year-on-year as of October 2025, marking a significant downturn compared to previous periods. This decline is attributed to a reduction in fiscal deficits and slower issuance of local government bonds [17][19][21]. - **Manufacturing FAI**: The slowdown is driven by a combination of weak non-tech exports and "anti-involution" measures, which have led to more cautious capacity expansion in the manufacturing sector [25][27]. - **Real Estate FAI**: The share of real estate FAI in total nominal FAI has decreased from a peak of **24%** in 2021 to **14%** currently. The sector is facing a severe contraction, with sales and prices declining significantly [31][32][41]. Economic Implications - The contraction in FAI is seen as a necessary adjustment to address overcapacity, but there is concern over the lack of effective consumer stimulus measures. The report emphasizes the need for policies to support consumption to manage overall demand and social stability risks [12][12][48]. Additional Important Insights - Investors are particularly focused on the broad and rapid decline in nominal FAI over recent months, with concerns about potential data underreporting in certain sectors targeted by anti-involution policies [11][12]. - The report highlights the importance of addressing the macroeconomic landscape through strategic investments and consumption support to mitigate deflationary risks [12][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of China's capital expenditure, emphasizing the challenges and potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming years.

Beijing’s campaign to rein in price wars and blunt deflation has done little to lift third-quarter earnings, leaving investors short on catalysts https://t.co/fwdfmvtHP8 ...

No Deflation EnjoyooorsSTAND UP! https://t.co/CgHHq2aFOCEasy (@EasyEatsBodega):I did the research.The biggest issue here tho is that the ballon has to appear “deformed” or taken out of the parade due to the deflationNone of that has happened with these incidents.The chance is near 0.Cold weather is the biggest factor and it will be between 36 https://t.co/sYAEStOOKg ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Asia Pacific economic outlook, particularly the transition from technology-driven growth to a broader recovery encompassing non-tech sectors [3][5][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **External Demand Recovery**: Easing trade tensions and recovering US domestic demand are expected to support external demand recovery, particularly benefiting non-tech exports [5][20]. 2. **US GDP Growth Forecast**: The US real GDP growth is forecasted to recover from -0.2% in Q4 2025 to 2.1% in Q4 2026, indicating a positive trend [6]. 3. **Asia's GDP Growth**: Asia's real GDP growth is projected to increase from 4.3% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, with specific country forecasts showing varied growth rates [10][12]. 4. **Nominal GDP Growth**: Asia ex China's nominal GDP growth is expected to accelerate, while China's nominal GDP growth is anticipated to recover modestly but remain subdued [14][16]. 5. **Exports Performance**: Asia's tech exports have been strong, but non-tech exports have remained flat since Q4 2024, indicating a need for diversification in export strategies [17][20]. 6. **Capex Momentum**: An expected recovery in non-tech exports and earlier rate cuts are anticipated to revive capital expenditure (capex) momentum, with gross fixed investment projected to grow from 2.0% in Q3 2025 to 4.4% in Q4 2026 [24][25]. 7. **Labor Market Conditions**: A turnaround in exports and capex is expected to improve labor market conditions and discretionary consumption, which have been negatively impacted by weaker labor markets and higher real rates [27]. 8. **China's Economic Outlook**: Deflationary pressures in China are expected to ease, with a clear exit from deflation projected for 2027, supported by infrastructure investments and a recovery in non-tech exports [31][32]. 9. **India's Economic Growth**: India is forecasted to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia, with a projected growth rate of 12.0% in 2026, driven by various easing measures and a potential trade deal with the US [36][39][40]. 10. **Japan's Fiscal Policy**: Japan's expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support a gradual rise in core CPI, with fiscal concerns likely overplayed due to a healthy starting point of the fiscal deficit [41][45]. Additional Important Insights - **Risks to Outlook**: Potential risks include a mild recession in the US affecting Asia's non-tech exports and the possibility of accelerated rebalancing efforts in China leading to better nominal GDP growth outcomes [47]. - **Inflation and Rate Cuts**: The outlook suggests more room for central banks to cut rates than what the market is currently pricing, with inflation forecasts being lower than consensus due to persistent disinflationary pressures from China [46]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts presented during the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region and specific countries within it.

I did the research.The biggest issue here tho is that the ballon has to appear “deformed” or taken out of the parade due to the deflationNone of that has happened with these incidents.The chance is near 0.Cold weather is the biggest factor and it will be between 36 and 40 degrees tomorrow in NYC.I like the “no” for deflated balloon in the parade.Easy (@EasyEatsBodega):PLEASE QUICKSOMEONE GIVE ME THE # OF DEFLATIONS PER MACYS DAY PARADE OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. https://t.co/gDlENR4H3G ...

PLEASE QUICKSOMEONE GIVE ME THE # OF DEFLATIONS PER MACYS DAY PARADE OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS. https://t.co/gDlENR4H3G ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China** economy, specifically analyzing the **nominal Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** trends and their implications for deflation and economic growth [1][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Declining Nominal FAI**: China's nominal FAI is experiencing a broad-based contraction, with significant declines in real estate (14%), infrastructure (30%), and manufacturing (37%) sectors [4][10]. 2. **Investment Scenarios**: Three potential scenarios for the future of nominal FAI and economic growth are outlined: - **Base Case**: Policy measures boost infrastructure FAI and stabilize labor markets through non-tech exports, leading to a moderate easing of deflation [10][54]. - **Weak FAI with Strong Exports**: Nominal FAI remains weak, but a strong recovery in exports could sustain GDP growth and ease deflationary pressures [10][55]. - **Weak FAI and Exports**: Continued weakness in both nominal FAI and exports could exacerbate labor market issues and intensify deflation [10][56]. 3. **Investment Momentum**: The report highlights a significant deceleration in investment momentum across various sectors, raising concerns about the macroeconomic setup and the need for consumption-boosting measures [13][14]. 4. **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure FAI growth has sharply declined to -12.1% year-on-year as of October 2025, with expectations for modest acceleration in 2026 due to additional local government bond issuance [20][22][23]. 5. **Manufacturing Sector Challenges**: The slowdown in manufacturing FAI is attributed to a decline in non-tech exports and anti-involution efforts, with expectations for a recovery in non-tech exports beginning in Q1 2026 [29][30]. 6. **Real Estate Sector Contraction**: Real estate FAI has seen a significant decline, with growth at -24.1% year-on-year in October 2025, and a continued contraction expected in 2026 [34][35][40]. Additional Important Insights - **Fiscal Deficit**: The augmented fiscal deficit has narrowed by 1.2 percentage points in the past three months, indicating a tightening fiscal environment [21][24]. - **Policy Measures**: Policymakers are considering a mortgage interest subsidy program to support the real estate market, but details on its implementation remain unclear [36][39]. - **Sectoral Performance**: The manufacturing sector is facing broad-based slowdowns, with specific sectors like energy storage expected to perform better due to government focus [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on investment trends and their implications for deflation and growth.

Summary of the Conference Call on Mortgage Relief in China Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese housing market** and the potential for **mortgage relief** measures to stabilize housing prices and listings [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Housing Market Conditions**: - Housing prices in China have seen a significant decline, leading to a feedback loop of "higher listings/lower prices" which exacerbates deflationary pressures [3][10]. - A deeper downturn in the housing market poses risks to the forecast of shallower deflation in 2026 and lowflation in 2027 [3][10]. 2. **Proposed Policy Measures**: - The Chinese government is considering **interest subsidies** to reduce mortgage costs without negatively impacting banks' net interest margins (NIM) [4][10]. - This approach is seen as a targeted rate cut that avoids the limitations of conventional rate cuts [4][10]. 3. **Cost Implications**: - A broad-based 100 basis points (bps) subsidy could cost approximately **Rmb 400 billion** annually, while a targeted subsidy for new mortgages would cost around **Rmb 100 billion** per year [6][10]. 4. **Policy Design Considerations**: - The effectiveness of the subsidy program will depend on its **scope** (whether it covers new or existing mortgages), **magnitude** (the size of the subsidy), and **duration** [5][10][11]. - A sufficiently broad and generous program could support new home sales and alleviate pressures in the secondary market, helping to stabilize prices [10][12]. 5. **Potential Impact**: - If implemented broadly (covering all mortgages) and generously (100 bps for five years), the program could significantly boost new home sales and ease supply pressures in the secondary market, thereby reducing price headwinds [12][10]. - This would align with the expectation of narrower deflation in 2026 and a clearer exit from deflation in 2027, particularly as housing prices stabilize in higher-tier cities [12][10]. 6. **Risks to Monitor**: - A narrow scope of the subsidy (only covering new mortgages) may lead to limited improvements in new home sales, failing to offset secondary market listings and providing minimal support to prices [13][10]. - Delays in execution and entrenched expectations of falling prices could undermine the effectiveness of the policy [13][10]. Other Important Considerations - The program's design and implementation details remain unclear, making immediate action unlikely [10][11]. - The policy direction is consistent with the forecast for "less deflation" in 2026 and a transition towards lowflation in 2027 [10][12].

RT Flaming.hodl ₿ (@flaming_hodl)@meeDamian @NickSzabo4 The government has been stealing efficiency gains out of the economy through money printing. Efficiency should make everything less expensive through deflation but instead the government prints enough money to keep inflation at 2%. With 3% deflation means they are taking 5%. ...