Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the industry, indicating a projected performance within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next 12 months [53]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the U.S. with a combination of inflation rebound and strong employment, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [3][15]. - In Europe, economic fundamentals are improving, but the European Central Bank is likely to continue a gradual rate cut approach due to ongoing uncertainties [4][25]. - Domestic consumption is expected to continue its recovery trend, with significant growth in retail and service sectors during the Spring Festival period [28]. - The export sector is showing resilience, supported by increased container throughput at ports and a recovery in the semiconductor supply chain [29]. - Inflation is anticipated to be influenced by seasonal factors, with CPI expected to decline post-Spring Festival due to the normalization of prices [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2024 was revised to 2.3%, with consumer spending remaining strong despite some downward pressures from non-residential investment [13]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q4 2024 was adjusted to 0.1%, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs, although disparities among major economies persist [24]. 2. Domestic Economy - Consumption during the Spring Festival saw a 10.8% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, with significant growth in both goods and services [28]. - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with construction activity not yet returning to pre-holiday levels [29]. - Export growth is expected to maintain resilience, aided by a recovery in global manufacturing and proactive export strategies [29]. 3. Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with potential adjustments post the National People's Congress [6]. - Fiscal policy discussions during the upcoming meetings are likely to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting new productivity initiatives [45].

如果第一次调整没有跑掉时，你会去找各种看多的理由，期待价格再涨回去，而当上涨后，你就会很害怕上次的回撤再次发现，所以，你又开始主动收集 一些利空的消息，生怕再来一次。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250303— 2025"弱现实"能否再现（+资金面转松+股市表现偏弱-2月PMI略超预期=小下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展970亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2925亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1955亿元。 月初资金面如期转松，资金价格回落，DR007下至1.85%附近。 今天看到一个数据：截至2024年底，北上广深房租都已经跌回了2014-2017年。房租背后反映的是就业和收入状况，是一个慢变量，不知近期汹涌澎湃的 科技浪潮何时能冲到工资卡里？ 【今日盘面】 240011 1.7400/1.7400/1.7075/1.7100 -1.75 240215 1.7875/1.7875/1.7550/1.7600 -1.25 2400006 1.9250/1.9300/1.9050/1.9090 -0.60 -------------------------- | | | | 银行间资金 | ...

特朗普作为美国新一届总统，"不当家不知柴米贵"，财政问题将是其新任期的重要考量。本文试图从财政角度，审视特朗普提出的新一届任期 的政策。 特朗普的四大节流方向：医改、停战、DOGE、非法移民。 从节流的角度来看，财政支出中国防和卫生健康方面的占比较高，可能是省钱的 重点。因此，一是可能对奥巴马医改进行重大改革，降低联邦政府对于医保的支出。二是通过停战，降低美国对外军事援助的费用。三是整顿 吏治，成立政府效率部，通过提高政府效率来削减预算开支。四是驱逐非法移民，拜登期间大规模非法移民的涌入造成了财政负担，控制非法 移民进入可能会缓解相关的财政压力。 若开源和节流进展不顺，特朗普有Plan B——加密货币。 如果前述财政举措落地不顺，财政赤字仍然明显上升，可能会对美元信心及其全球地 位带来冲击。那么不排除特朗普可能会借力比特币来对美元进行增信。近期特朗普已经表达了对比特币的支持，并称会让财政部持有比特币。 风险提示： 美国政策不确定性，地缘政治风险，全球经济金融风险 。 正文 特朗普2.0的政策重点——财政 特朗普2.0政策围绕财政问题展开，其中，财政刺激主要体现在对内大规模减税。根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO） ...

对于同一件传闻和新闻的利用，"只有再一再二，没有再三再四"。就是说，对于同一件事，效果最好的是第一次，第二次效果还算行，但第三次效果就几 乎没有了，至于第四次，再强烈再轰动，市场也早已麻木了。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20241025— 财政盲盒即将揭晓（+央行大额净投放+人大会议议程暂未涉及财政+资金面宽松=小下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行今日公开市场开展2926亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1084亿元逆回购到期。此外，央行开展7000亿元MLF操作（此前10月16日 MLF到期7890亿元）。合计净投放8842亿元。 适逢月末及税期走款，但在央行呵护下，资金面整体宽松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 10. 25) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) ...