西方国家近期以启动"快速恢复制裁"机制相要挟，要求伊朗继续履行伊核协议，包括与国际原子能机构 恢复全面合作、按照伊核协议限制核发展规模等。伊朗外长阿拉格齐对此表示，欧洲无权讨论或执行伊 核协议，包括"快速恢复制裁"机制。 （文章来源：新华网） 根据2015年签订的伊朗核问题全面协议，伊朗承诺限制其核计划，国际社会解除对伊制裁。联合国安理 会随后通过第2231号决议，对伊核协议加以核可。该决议包含"快速恢复制裁"机制，允许协议签署国采 取措施应对伊朗的违规行为，这一机制的有效期至今年10月18日。 据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台25日报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在 瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。 巴加埃表示，此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表 通话的后续行动。会谈除讨论解除制裁和核问题外，还将讨论联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走 向。 ...

Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled out the possibility of direct negotiations with the United States, accusing Washington of seeking Iran's "surrender" [1] - Khamenei's remarks come amid increasing domestic pressure in Iran to change its approach and seek a friendly relationship with the U.S. [1][2] - The Iranian Foreign Minister revealed that there had been contact with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who proposed resuming negotiations, coinciding with a rise in reformist voices within Iran [1][2] Group 2 - Reformist politicians believe that diplomatic engagement could lead to significant economic and political reforms, while hardliners have reacted strongly against this notion [2] - Khamenei has expressed support for the reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, urging the public to back those serving the nation and dismissing calls for Pezeshkian's removal [2] - The recent conflict between Iran and Israel resulted in over 1,000 civilian deaths and heightened public anxiety, with ongoing concerns about a potential resurgence of hostilities [2] Group 3 - Despite increasing pressure, Tehran remains unwilling to curtail its nuclear program, with discussions ongoing between E3 countries and the Iranian Foreign Minister regarding the potential activation of a sanctions "snapback" mechanism [2][3] - The deadline for utilizing this mechanism is October 18, but E3 must initiate the process weeks in advance [3] - Iran has rejected E3's threats and is not inclined to resume negotiations with the U.S. or cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been suspended since the June conflict [3]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif publicly criticized Europe for lacking the authority to discuss or enforce mechanisms related to the Iran nuclear deal, particularly the "snapback sanctions" mechanism, highlighting the complexities of the Middle East nuclear issue and Europe's relatively passive role in international affairs [1][3][4] Group 1: Iran's Position and Strategy - Zarif's statement reflects Iran's firm stance on its sovereignty and nuclear technology development, indicating that any attempts to manipulate or reinstate sanctions will be deemed invalid by Iran [3][4][6] - The joint letter from France, Germany, and the UK to the UN threatening to reinstate sanctions if Iran does not reach a diplomatic solution by a set deadline may escalate tensions, as Iran prioritizes its national interests over external pressures [3][4][9] - Iran's rejection of European intervention signifies a shift towards a more assertive and independent foreign policy, positioning itself as a key player in the regional power dynamics [6][9] Group 2: Implications for International Relations - The current situation underscores the limitations of multilateral mechanisms in addressing conflicts of national interest, particularly when faced with a resolute state like Iran [4][7] - The renewed focus on the Iran nuclear issue increases uncertainty in the Middle East, as European attempts to enforce the deal through sanctions may not yield the desired outcomes and could exacerbate regional tensions [6][9] - The evolving dynamics suggest that traditional diplomatic tools and mechanisms are facing significant challenges in the new geopolitical landscape, necessitating a reevaluation of strategies to achieve a balanced and pragmatic resolution [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Europe has no authority to discuss or enforce the Iran nuclear deal, including the "snapback sanctions" mechanism [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Iran Nuclear Deal - The 2015 Iran nuclear deal required Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions [1] - The UN Security Council approved the nuclear deal through Resolution 2231, which includes the "snapback sanctions" mechanism [1] European Position - France, Germany, and the UK sent a letter to the UN indicating that if Iran does not reach a diplomatic solution by the end of August, they will restore sanctions against Iran [1] - Zarif criticized Europe's "zero enrichment" stance as contradictory to the nuclear deal, asserting that Europe cannot discuss any part of the agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - France, Germany, and the UK have indicated their readiness to reinstate sanctions on Iran if a diplomatic resolution regarding its nuclear program is not reached by the end of August 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Diplomatic Actions - The foreign ministers of France, Germany, and the UK sent a joint letter to the UN Secretary-General, stating their position on Iran's nuclear negotiations [1] - The letter emphasizes that if Iran does not reach a diplomatic solution by the specified deadline, the three countries are prepared to activate a rapid reinstatement of sanctions [1][2] Group 2: Background and Context - The three countries are signatories of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and have expressed concerns over Iran's actions since 2019, which they believe violate the agreement [1] - The "snapback sanctions" clause in the 2015 agreement allows signatories to respond to Iran's violations, and this clause is set to expire in October 2023 [2] - A recent meeting in Istanbul between Iran and the three European countries discussed the possibility of extending the deadline for sanctions reinstatement if Iran cooperates with the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency [2]

Group 1 - The UK, France, and Germany have sent a letter to the UN indicating that if Iran does not reach a diplomatic solution regarding its nuclear issues by the end of August 2025, they are prepared to reinstate sanctions [2] - The letter emphasizes that the three countries have legitimate reasons to reimpose sanctions due to Iran's violations of the nuclear agreement since 2019 [2] - The "snapback sanctions" clause from the 2015 nuclear agreement allows signatories to respond to Iran's non-compliance, and this clause is set to expire in October 2023 [2] Group 2 - In late July, discussions took place in Istanbul between Iran and the UK, France, and Germany, where the European representatives proposed extending the deadline for the "snapback sanctions" mechanism if Iran agrees to resume negotiations with the US by September [3] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that the three European countries lack legal or moral grounds to initiate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism, and if they persist, Iran may exclude them from future nuclear negotiations [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced sanctions against a shipping network controlled by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hossein Shahriari, involving over 50 entities and individuals, as well as more than 50 oil tankers and container ships [1] - This is the largest scale of sanctions implemented since the U.S. government's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran began in 2018 [1] - The shipping network is responsible for transporting Iranian and Russian oil, oil derivatives, and other goods worldwide [1] Sanctions Details - The U.S. State Department also announced sanctions against 20 entities involved in the trade and transportation of Iranian oil and petrochemical products, and froze assets of 10 ships [1] - The sanctions are part of a broader context following the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, which led to the reimposition of various sanctions against Iran [1] Negotiation Context - Since April, there have been five rounds of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions [1] - The sixth round of negotiations, originally scheduled for June 15, was canceled due to an Israeli attack on Iran [1] - During the military conflict between Israel and Iran, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities [1]

Group 1 - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) may visit Iran in the next two weeks to discuss technical issues and explore continued cooperation [1] - Iran will continue to advance its nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, and is awaiting a report from the IAEA regarding the status of its nuclear facilities [1] - The Iranian parliament approved a bill on June 25 to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, which prohibits IAEA observers from entering Iran for inspections unless certain conditions are met [1] Group 2 - The 2015 nuclear agreement required Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, with the UN Security Council adopting Resolution 2231 to endorse the agreement [2] - The "snapback" mechanism included in Resolution 2231 allows signatory countries to respond to Iran's violations, and this mechanism is effective until October 18 of this year [2] - Western countries have threatened to invoke the "snapback" mechanism to compel Iran to comply with the nuclear agreement, including restoring full cooperation with the IAEA and limiting the scale of nuclear development [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (white star, suggesting short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific rating given [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has continued the inventory - building trend since the peak season in Q3, with a 0.6% reduction in crude oil inventory and a 1.7% increase in refined oil inventory. There is always a supply - demand surplus pressure under the OPEC+ production - increase path. Oil prices are mainly under oscillating pressure, but geopolitical factors may bring support at the end of August and early September [1]. - The fuel oil futures showed strong performance among oil products today. The high - low sulfur spread was under pressure again, and the rebound strength of FU cracking needs further observation. The LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but with a smaller fluctuation range and under pressure on cracking [2]. - The asphalt 09 contract rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day, with low inventory supporting the price, but the upside space is limited before the actual improvement in demand [2]. - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic LPG market. Domestic chemical demand is strong in the short term, and domestic gas is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, and the futures market is mainly weak [3]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC09 contract up 1.71% during the day. The oil market has continued the inventory - building trend since Q3, with a 0.6% reduction in crude oil inventory and a 1.7% increase in refined oil inventory. The US government may allow Chevron to operate in Venezuela, which may lead to a recovery of about 200,000 barrels per day in Venezuelan crude oil exports. Before the final implementation of trade agreements, there are still bearish risks related to trade wars. Oil prices are mainly under oscillating pressure, but geopolitical factors may bring support at the end of August and early September [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures showed strong performance among oil products, with FU leading the gains. The high - low sulfur spread was under pressure again after two consecutive days of rebound, and the FU cracking rebounded slightly from a low level. The Singapore diesel cracking dropped slightly from a high level. The LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but with a smaller fluctuation range and under pressure on cracking [2] Asphalt - The 09 contract rebounded after hitting the bottom at 3593 yuan/ton during the day, with a small increase at the close but a relatively weak increase among oil products. Chevron is allowed to continue operating in Venezuela, which may increase Venezuelan oil production. The August refinery production plan decreased significantly compared with July. Affected by the widespread rainfall, demand recovery was slower than expected. The inventory of refineries decreased, and the social inventory remained flat, with the overall commercial inventory decreasing month - on - month. Low inventory supports the price, but the upside space is limited before the actual improvement in demand [2] LPG - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic LPG market. The increase in Middle East sales and high - level inventory accumulation in North America continue to suppress the market. Domestic PDH has resumed production rapidly, with good short - term chemical demand. The refinery's external supply volume has decreased slightly, and domestic gas is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, strengthening the delivery discount pressure, and the futures market is mainly weak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Ministry asserts that the UK, France, and Germany lack the authority to initiate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism and emphasizes that the current negotiations aim to correct the European countries' stance on Iran's nuclear program [1] Group 1 - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismail Baghaei, stated that the three European countries do not have the qualifications or rights to activate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism [1] - Iran considers discussions on extending UN Resolution 2231 to be meaningless and unfounded [1] - The current round of negotiations is seen as an opportunity to rectify the non-constructive actions of the UK, France, and Germany, which have harmed Europe's credibility and negotiating position [1]