在金融市场摸爬滚打三十多年后，我对市场运行方式和人性多少算是摸出点基本规律。其中一条就是： 只要能让人赚大钱，人类几乎什么都愿意相信。 这解释了这些年来种种荒唐的金融故事，也解释了为 何市场普遍倾向于把美联储的政策决定往"更有利风险资产"的方向去解读。有时这种逻辑在稍后的市场 表现中被证明是对的，有时则不然。与此同时，债券市场在"收益率曲线趋陡压力"和"抢收益"这两只怪 兽之间左右为难。这两种力量中，前者最终应该会占上风。长债收益率虽然看起来快触及5%这个"诱人 水平"，但如果放在我们当前所处的政策周期背景下，其实并没有那么吸引人。 如今，美联储的声明就像罗夏墨迹测验：你能看到的东西很大程度上取决于你的视角。这部分源于决策 层那边可分析的东西太多：除了政策声明本身和利率决定，还有经济预测和鲍威尔记者会。正如周三笔 者所指出的，经济预测和点阵图所隐含的反应函数相比过去一年更偏向鹰派，而鲍威尔似乎在暗示，在 政策利率接近中性利率区间上端之际，美联储可以等待数据引路，再决定下一步政策行动。 股票和债券市场都给出了更偏鸽派的解读。当然，正如昨天说的，这不算新鲜事：历史上债市定价通常 会在几周后回归到和美联储反应函数相 ...

Core Viewpoint - A class action lawsuit has been filed against CarMax, Inc. and certain senior executives for securities fraud following a significant stock drop attributed to potential violations of federal securities laws [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - Investors have until January 2, 2026, to request to lead the case, which is pending in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland [2]. - The lawsuit asserts claims under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on behalf of CarMax investors [2]. Group 2: Company Performance and Stock Impact - CarMax reported disappointing financial results for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, including a 5.4% decline in retail used unit sales, a 6.3% decline in comparable store used unit sales, and a 2.2% decline in wholesale units [5]. - The company's net income for Q2 was approximately $95.4 million, down from $132.8 million the previous year, attributed to a "pull forward" in demand due to U.S. tariffs [5]. - Following the financial report, CarMax's stock dropped $11.45 per share, or roughly 20%, from $57.05 on September 24, 2025, to $45.60 on September 25, 2025 [6]. - An unexpected departure of CEO Bill Nash on November 6, 2025, and a weak preliminary Q3 outlook led to an additional stock drop of over 24% [6]. Group 3: Company Background - CarMax is a leading retailer of used cars, emphasizing a seamless customer experience and strong demand for its vehicles [3]. - The law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP, which is representing the plaintiffs, has a strong track record in securities class actions, having recovered significant amounts from other companies [10].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with expectations, marking the third rate cut since September[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days to maintain adequate reserve supply[2] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding rate cuts have increased, with three voting members opposing the decision, the highest dissent since 2019[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed significantly raised its GDP forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - Unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 remain at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, with slight adjustments made to future years[6] - The PCE inflation rate forecast for 2026 was lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%[4] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The Fed maintains expectations for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in the coming year, with a target federal funds rate of 3%-3.25% by year-end[1] - Future rate adjustments will depend on economic data and evolving risks, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The potential for rate hikes in the second half of next year is limited, as the economic conditions may not warrant such actions[1]

中国商务部：注意到有关报道，将密切关注墨方措施落地情况，并进一步评估相关影响。本次审议通过的提案在9月基础上做了部分调整，部分汽车零部件、轻工产品和纺织服装等产品的提税税率有一定幅度下调。但总的来看，有关措施一旦落地仍会实质性损害包括中国在内的相关贸易伙伴利益。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):墨西哥国会众议院不理中方及国内商业团体反对，通过法案，对中国及其他没有与墨西哥签署贸易协议的亚洲国家（印度、韩国、泰国及印尼等）加征最高50%的关税。法案仍需参议院通过。 ...

"汉语盘点2025"活动日前发布"年度字词"评选各组前五位年度候选字和前五位年度候选词。 "汉语盘点2025"活动由国家语言资源监测与研究中心、商务印书馆、新华网等单位联合主办，11月20日 在京启动。据主办方介绍，活动启动后受到社会广泛关注和全民热情参与。12月19日，在综合网友推荐 和专家评议基础上，活动将从以上各组前五位年度候选字和前五位年度候选词中，各揭晓一个字和一个 词，作为"2025年度字词"。（记者杨湛菲） 前五位年度国内候选字为"韧""创""融""智""通"，前五位年度国内候选词为"十五五""深度求索 （DeepSeek）""九三阅兵""苏超""具身智能"；前五位年度国际候选字为"税""抢""界""谈""硬"，前五位 年度国际候选词为"地缘政治""无人机""稀土""草台班子""关税"。 ...

墨西哥国会众议院不理中方及国内商业团体反对，通过法案，对中国及其他没有与墨西哥签署贸易协议的亚洲国家（印度、韩国、泰国及印尼等）加征最高50%的关税。法案仍需参议院通过。今次通过的法案较原本的建议具弹性。对汽车、汽车零件、纺织品、服装、塑胶和钢铁等大部份商品的关税税率为35%。有执政党的众议员指，加征关税不会影响通胀。法案最后在众议院获281票赞成、24票反对及149票弃权下通过。有分析认为，墨西哥政府希望在检视美墨加贸易协定取悦美方。 ...

墨西哥国会众议院不理中方及国内商业团体反对，通过法案，对中国及其他没有与墨西哥签署贸易协议的亚洲国家（印度、南韩、泰国及印尼等）加征最高50%的关税。法案仍需参议院通过。今次通过的法案较原本的建议具弹性。对汽车、汽车零件、纺织品、服装、塑胶和钢铁等大部份商品的关税税率为35%。有执政党的众议员指，加征关税不会影响通胀。法案最后在众议院获281票赞成、24票反对及149票弃权下通过。有分析认为，墨西哥政府希望在检视美墨加贸易协定取悦美方。 ...

美国贸易代表格里尔表示，鉴于与加拿大和墨西哥这两个邻国的贸易关系存在差异，分别与这两个邻国讨论贸易问题是有意义的。格里尔表示，特朗普首任期内谈判达成的美墨加贸易协定，在协议规定的2026年审查中可能被退出、修改或重新谈判。“所有这些选项都在考虑范围内。”外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普公布了一项针对美国农民的120亿美元援助计划。特朗普表示，这项援助计划的资金将来自于关税收入，目的是支持这一重要的投票群体。特朗普当天还威胁要对墨西哥额外征收5%的关税，指责其违反水资源共享条约。特朗普警告称，如果他认为有必要，将对来自加拿大的化肥征收高额关税。 ...

Core Insights - Republican lawmakers are urging President Trump for additional farm relief and support for agricultural equipment manufacturers due to the adverse effects of his tariff policies on farmers and the equipment industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Farmers - Farmers are experiencing financial strain due to Trump's tariff policies, which have negatively affected their reliance on exports, particularly to China [2] - The combination of low commodity prices and high input costs, such as fertilizer, has forced farmers to reduce spending, impacting their ability to purchase new equipment [2][3] - The demand for new equipment has decreased, leading to layoffs at major manufacturers like Deere [2] Group 2: Manufacturer Perspectives - Deere's agriculture division president noted that the U.S. market is under significant pressure due to trade flow disruptions and escalating internal costs [3] - The Association of Equipment Manufacturers expressed concern that high tariffs on essential parts could inadvertently harm farmers and increase costs for consumers [3] Group 3: Legislative Actions and Proposals - Senator Chuck Grassley has communicated with the White House and relevant departments, advocating for targeted relief from tariffs for equipment manufacturers [4] - Other Republican senators, including John Hoeven, have discussed the need for aid to farmers regarding equipment costs during meetings with Trump [5] - Trump has suggested reducing regulatory burdens on equipment manufacturers to lower costs, contingent on those companies reducing their prices [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - There is skepticism about the feasibility of increasing farmers' income to enable them to purchase new equipment, given the already tight margins in farming operations [7][8]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前通胀水平超出2%目标的主要原因，是特朗普总统推行的进口关税上 调。"当前通胀超调，主要就是由关税引起的"。他重申，关税对通胀的影响很可能是一次性的价格上 扬，而非持续性的通胀压力。 ...