Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The urea market is in a state of obvious oversupply in China, with high daily production and operating rates, and weak domestic demand. Although the international price is strong and export profits are increasing, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures market is expected to be volatile today [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, the urea market returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and inventories are accumulating again. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is declining, and agricultural demand is also expected to fall. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, but the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in capacity, production, and consumption. The capacity growth rate has fluctuated, reaching a high of 15.5% in 2020. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate also fluctuated, with a peak of 17.9% in 2020. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Quotes - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product and Shandong and Henan spot prices are all 1810, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2748 [6]. - **Futures**: The 01 contract price is 1747 (-9), the UR05 contract price is 1788 (-8), and the UR09 contract price is 1726 (-1). The basis is 63 (+9) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, dragged down by domestic demand, but the downside space is small. The market will experience weak consolidation on the disk due to the impact of the parade with some upstream and downstream shutdowns [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened lower and moved higher, closing flat at the end of the day. The spot price rebounded from the low level. The daily urea production is around 190,000 tons, with a narrow fluctuation. Industrial demand has resilience, but the downstream in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be affected by the parade, and the inventory in factories is rising. The market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, and the disk will be weakly sorted [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,725 yuan/ton, closed flat at 1,726 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume decreased by 16,955 lots to 74,908 lots. In the 2601 contract, long positions decreased by 10,346 lots and short positions increased by 13,304 lots [2] - Spot: The market trading atmosphere has not improved. Upstream factories have lowered prices to attract orders, but the effect is average. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market mainstream quotation rebounded, while the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 13, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,700 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.19% [12] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from last week, a month-on-month increase of 6.86%. The pre - sale order days were 6.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 3.68% [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a volatile and relatively strong trend. However, the trading atmosphere in the market has not improved. Upstream factories have started to cut prices to attract orders, but the effect is mediocre. The urea plant equipment has experienced multiple temporary inspections, and the daily production is currently fluctuating around 190,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease but still being high year - on - year. There is an expectation of a short - term increase in production. On the demand side, affected by the military parade, downstream melamine production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be shut down one after another, and the operation of compound fertilizer plants will also start to decrease. The finished product inventory in the plants is rising, and the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. The inventory in the plants has decreased slightly this period, and it is expected to continue to decrease in the short term. Although the downstream has no intention to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being, the demand has resilience. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer plants, the downside space for urea is limited. Affected by the military parade this month, downstream demand will weaken in the short term, and the market will be mainly in a weak consolidation state [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher, with a volatile and relatively strong trend. The trading atmosphere has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. Urea plant equipment has had multiple temporary inspections, with daily production around 190,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month but high year - on - year. One enterprise is expected to resume production this week, with a short - term production increase expected. Downstream demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be affected by the military parade, and the probability of concentrated purchases is low. The plant inventory has decreased slightly and is expected to continue to do so in the short term. The demand has resilience, and the downside space for urea is limited. The market will be in a weak consolidation state in the short term due to the military parade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1722 yuan/ton, moved higher, and closed at 1727 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 91,810 lots, a decrease of 17,964 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 11,492 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,616 lots. Rongda Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,045 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 756 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 2,198 lots, and Hongyuan Futures' net short positions increased by 2,066 lots. On August 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,823, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day, with 200 more from Liaoning Fertilizer [2] Spot - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,660 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable and slightly weak today, while the futures closing price increased slightly. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.62% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China. The recent urea futures market has been oscillating, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is increasing, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR futures will oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The daily production and operating rate of domestic urea are still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has increased again. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand has continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to continue to fall. The overall over - supply situation in the domestic urea market is still obvious, while the export profit is strengthening, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 59, and the premium - discount ratio is 3.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic over - supply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is that the international price is strong; the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Market Conditions | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1810 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1810 (-23), and the FOB China price is 2750 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1751 (unchanged), the basis is 59 (+10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1790 (+6), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1722 (-6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 3623 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.019 million tons (-77,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 440,000 tons (+59,000 tons) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [10] |

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. The current daily production will fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In August, many previously shut - down plants are expected to resume production, and some new capacity plants are expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers continues to increase, but the downstream dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is insufficient, and the finished product inventory still faces great pressure. In the short term, the high inventory of autumn fertilizers suppresses the production enthusiasm of enterprises, and the support for the procurement demand of urea raw materials is weak. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market should pay attention to the support level performance around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton on the disk [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase [4]. - **Demand**: The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down, and the urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The domestic urea spot market price was weak this week. Supply pressure is expected to increase, while demand is constrained by high inventory. The futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4]. 02 Variety Details Decomposition - **2.1 This week, the domestic urea market price changed from strong to weak**: There are price trend charts of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8]. - **2.2 On August 4, the lowest CFR price of the Indian tender on the east coast was $532/ton**: There are charts showing international urea prices, price differences between FOB China and other regions, and export price differences from 2019 - 2025 [10][11][12]. - **2.3 Supply - In August, many plants are expected to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase**: The weekly urea production was 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea production (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea production (+5.92%), with an average daily production of 194,000 tons. There are also plans for plant overhauls and historical data on overhaul losses [16][20][23]. - **2.4 Inventory - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: The urea enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,700 tons. The port inventory was 483,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), and some goods were shipped out of the port. The mainstream advance receipt days of urea enterprises were 6.53 days (+6.7% week - on - week), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises increased slightly [27][31]. - **2.5 Demand - The start - up of autumn fertilizers has increased, but the finished product inventory pressure is still large**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.50% (+2.82%), and the finished product inventory was 800,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 23,200 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline [33][34]. - **2.6 Raw Material - The upward trend of coal prices has slowed down**: There are price trend charts of various types of coal such as Yulin thermal coal, Yangquan bituminous coal fines, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [36][37]. - **2.7 Profit - The urea profit decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis**: There are charts showing the production gross profit of urea fixed - bed devices from 2021 - 2025 [42][43]. - **2.8 Spread Analysis - The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the change in the 09 basis was limited**: There are charts showing the 9 - 1 spread and 09 basis from 2021 - 2025 [45][46][47]. - **2.10 Urea - related Product Spreads**: There are charts showing the price differences between liquid ammonia and urea, urea and ammonium chloride, etc. from 2021 - 2025 [53][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The urea market shows a mixed picture. The domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation with high daily production and falling demand, while international prices are relatively strong. The report expects the UR contract to trade sideways today [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamental factors: The urea futures market has been trading sideways recently. The previous increase in raw material prices caused by anti - involution sentiment has started to reverse. Domestic supply, including daily production and operating rates, remains at high levels, and inventories are rising again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both falling, and agricultural demand is also in a seasonal slump. The overall domestic urea market has a significant oversupply, and the export policy has not been liberalized more than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 43, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.4%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 147.7 million tons (+4.6), which is bearish [4]. - Futures market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main positions: The net position of the UR main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is trading sideways. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will trade sideways today [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Bullish factors: International prices are strong [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - Main logic: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1800 (-10), and the Henan spot price is 1780 (0). The FOB China price is 2908 [6]. - Futures prices: The price of the 09 contract is 1737 (-13), the UR01 contract is 1757 (-10), and the UR05 contract is 1793 (-9). The basis of the 09 contract is 43 (-7) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.9% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, and apparent consumption have also generally increased. For example, in 2018, production was 1956.81, net imports were 448.38, and apparent consumption was 2405.19. By 2024, production reached 3425, net imports were 360, and apparent consumption was 3785 [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-7 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差50，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差28，升贴水比例1.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+50），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差67，升贴水比例3.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, August 4, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy Chemical R & D Report [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The urea futures market rebounded after a decline, and the spot market prices were stable with improved low - price transactions. The overall supply is abundant, while the domestic demand is limited. The new Indian tender has a certain positive impact on market sentiment [3][5] Group 4: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 1733 (+19/+1.11%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory - gate prices were stable, and low - price transactions improved. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Important Information - On August 4, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.47 million tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operation rate was 82.24%, 2.59% higher than 79.65% in the same period last year [4] Group 6: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was fair, and the factory - gate quotes in mainstream regions were temporarily stable. Low - price transactions improved [5] - Supply: Some plants were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 19 million tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 5.38 million tons to around 91.73 million tons, remaining at a high level overall [5] - Demand: The new Indian tender was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared with the previous one. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the relaxation of export policies had a certain positive impact on the domestic market sentiment. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was low, and the demand for raw materials was weak [5] - Price Forecast: In Shandong, the factory - gate quotes are expected to increase; in Henan, they are expected to remain stable; in areas around the delivery zone, they are also expected to remain stable [5] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Close short positions and wait and see [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]