Group 1 - The latest economic indicators in the US show a slight increase in initial jobless claims, rising from a revised 226,000 to 240,000, which is above the market expectation of 230,000 [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter has been revised down from a contraction of 0.3% to a contraction of 0.2% [1] - Following the release of this data, US Treasury yields experienced a significant decline, reversing an earlier upward trend [1] Group 2 - The current yield on the 10-year Treasury note is reported at 4.471%, while the 2-year Treasury yield stands at 3.978% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of various asset classes in financial markets, highlighting the recent unusual behavior of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's status as a safe haven, alongside the rise of Bitcoin as an alternative investment [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields are inversely related to bond prices, which explains the recent rise in yields as investors sell off U.S. debt [3]. - The yields serve as a benchmark for global asset pricing, influencing the valuation of various risk assets based on their credit and liquidity risks [6][7]. - Changes in U.S. Treasury yields reflect market expectations regarding the U.S. and global economic outlook, with rising yields indicating anticipated economic growth and inflation [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - U.S. Treasury yields are closely tied to Federal Reserve monetary policy, with changes in the federal funds rate directly impacting short-term yields [9][10]. - Market expectations of future Fed actions, such as rate hikes or cuts, are quickly reflected in Treasury yield movements, affecting the entire yield curve [11]. Group 3: Impact on Currency and Capital Flows - The relative level of U.S. Treasury yields significantly influences the value of the dollar, as higher yields attract international investors seeking better returns [12][13]. - Conversely, lower yields may lead to capital outflows, putting downward pressure on the dollar [14]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Investment Decisions - Rising U.S. Treasury yields enhance the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially leading to a shift of funds from equities and real estate to the bond market [14]. - In stock valuation models, Treasury yields are used as a discount rate, where increasing yields can lower the present value of future earnings, potentially leading to declining stock valuations [14]. Group 5: Importance of Monitoring Treasury Yields - For participants in global financial markets, understanding and tracking U.S. Treasury yield dynamics is essential for effective trading and investment strategies [15].

美国国债收益率持续上升；10年和30年期收益率升至本周高点。 ...

新华财经北京5月21日电周二（5月20日），国际金价开盘3229.11美元，最高3295.72美元，最低3204.21 美元，收盘报3289.29美元。全天波幅91.51美元，上涨60.16美元，涨幅1.86%，日K线呈现长阳线形 态，突破震荡区间有望进一步延续上行。 基本面上来看，中东地区动荡局势及美元回落为金价上行提供动力。以色列国防军发布消息称，当天早 些时候，以军打死黎巴嫩南部真主党曼苏里基地的一名指挥官。英国外交大臣拉米表示，以方对加沙的 行动"不可容忍"，英国政府将宣布暂停与以色列的贸易协议谈判，就以色列扩大加沙军事行动召见了以 色列大使。美国表示，以色列可能正在准备对伊朗核设施发动打击。目前地缘局势紧张，如果确定发生 突发打击事件，或再次推动金价避险买盘。 此外，美国国债收益率持续攀升，30年期收益率接近5%，美元指数连续多个交易日整体震荡回落，从 102附近再次回撤至100整数位，也为金价强势反弹形成支撑。 短线走势来看，银价在受百日均线以及布林带下轨的双重支撑作用下，多次在32美元一线及下方获得支 撑并止跌回升，该位置仍是当前及未来一段时间的重要支撑区域，布林带中轨以及短期多条均线汇集于 3 ...

新华财经纽约5月20日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国信用评级遭到下调和贸易谈判可能涉及汇率对美元带 来打压，20日美元兑一揽子货币全面走低，美元指数在隔夜市场走低，当日早间一度有所上涨，随后持 续走低，尾盘时美元指数下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.31%，在汇市尾市收于100.119。 瑞银集团外汇策略师瓦西里·谢瑞布里亚科夫（Vassili Serebriakov）表示，穆迪日前下调美国主权信用评 级是此前美国国债收益率上涨和美元走低的刺激因素。现在，美国国债收益率已经从高点回落，但美元 仍旧在走低。 荷兰国际集团全球市场负责人克里斯·特纳（Chris Turner）表示，笼罩外汇市场的是贸易协议的讨论将 包括一些货币因素。如果确实如此，那将对美元构成利空。因为美国希望美元兑亚洲货币走弱，以缩小 亚洲对美国的贸易顺差。 日本财政大臣加藤胜信（Katsunobu Kato）20日表示，他与美国财长贝森特任何关于汇率的会谈都会基 于双方共同的观点，即过度汇率波动不可取。两人预计本周将在加拿大举行的G7国家财长会议期间见 面。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，美元兑日元汇率连续 ...

美国国债收益率持续攀升，30年期国债收益率接近5%。 ...

智通财经5月20日电，美国国债收益率继续攀升，30年期国债收益率逼近5%。 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies and rising U.S. debt have led investors to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a safe haven asset for global investors [1][3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting rising government debt and interest payment ratios significantly higher than similar sovereign nations [3][4] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 12 basis points to 5.02%, while the 10-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.54% [1] Group 2 - The House Budget Committee approved Trump's tax and spending proposal, which is expected to increase the deficit by trillions, raising investor concerns about U.S. debt trends [4] - Moody's indicated that the current fiscal proposals are unlikely to lead to significant long-term reductions in spending and deficits [4] - The proportion of mandatory spending, including interest payments, is projected to rise from approximately 73% in 2024 to about 78% by 2035 [4] Group 3 - Despite heightened risk aversion, some analysts believe Moody's downgrade will not have a lasting impact on the market, as it was largely anticipated [5] - The cost of U.S. government debt default insurance, measured by five-year CDS rates, slightly increased to 55 basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, attributing it to rising budget deficits and concerns over U.S. economic policies, which may lead to increased volatility in financial markets [4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the expansion of budget deficits and lack of signs of reduction [4]. - The downgrade is expected to heighten concerns in the U.S. sovereign bond market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields could increase government interest expenses, complicating the government's ability to cut spending and potentially raising loan rates for mortgages and credit cards [7]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with expectations that it will rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]. - Despite the downgrade, some analysts believe it will not significantly impact Congress's voting behavior or lead to forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, gold prices opened higher, while U.S. stock index futures and oil prices experienced declines [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields [6]. - Foreign demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of aversion to U.S. debt despite recent concerns [8].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to potentially exceed 5%, reflecting a decrease in recession concerns and investor worries regarding the U.S. budget [1] Group 1: Yield Predictions - BlueBay Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, suggests that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has room to break above 5% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is considered reasonable at 4.5% but may rise higher [1] - There is a greater risk of long-term Treasury yields increasing [1]