Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields have slightly decreased during the European session, but may rise again ahead of the Jackson Hole conference, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday [1] Group 1 - Exness financial market strategist Inki Cho indicates that if recent investor bets on Fed rate cuts diminish, yields could increase [1] - Cho suggests that if Powell's tone implies a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts, yields may further climb [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US inflation data for July met expectations, alleviating concerns about potential inflation from Trump's tariff policies, and Invesco maintains its forecast for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The recent mild inflation data, combined with weak employment data from the previous month, supports the rationale for easing monetary policy [1] - The market is closely watching Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which is traditionally seen as an indicator of the Fed's policy direction in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds has become steeper since the release of the July CPI data, contrary to expectations that rate cut forecasts would lead to lower long-term yields [1] - Concerns about Trump's escalating criticism of Fed Chair Powell and the potential for Powell's replacement could increase market risks [2] - The recent appointment of E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics raises questions about the historical independence of the Fed, potentially disrupting the market [2] Group 3 - Even if the Fed resumes rate cuts later this year, long-term US Treasury yields may still rise, especially if the cuts are less than the approximately 125 basis points currently priced in by the market [2] - A similar situation occurred last year when the Fed only cut rates by 100 basis points, while the market expected nearly 200 basis points, leading to an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield from about 3.7% in September to approximately 4.6% by year-end [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in U.S. Treasury yields has sparked speculation in the market regarding its causes, with some attributing it to a potential technical error and others suggesting it may be related to interest rate hedging for corporate bond issuance [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities experienced a sharp increase, particularly from two-year to thirty-year bonds [1] - Analysts indicated that the spike in yields could be a result of large-scale selling in the futures market [1] - A significant trading error was suggested, where a trader intended to sell 8,000 contracts of 10-year Treasury futures but mistakenly sold 80,000 contracts, a volume 20 times the normal size [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell nearly 15 basis points, reaching a daily low of 4.2237%, after briefly rising to a daily high of 4.4060% just ten minutes before the U.S. non-farm payroll report was released [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped approximately 24 basis points, hitting a daily low of 3.7124%, and remained around the 3.95% level prior to the non-farm payroll report [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.2%, settling at 98.67 points [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 1.74%, while the Dow Jones dropped 684 points, reflecting a 1.54% decrease [1] - The Nasdaq fell by 495 points, marking a 2.34% drop, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index decreased by 3.13% [1] - The Russell 2000 index also saw a decline of 2.39% [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. 2 to 7-year Treasury yields fell by at least 10 basis points following the release of the July non-farm payroll report [1] - Spot gold prices increased by approximately $30, currently reported at $3,334.34 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by about 100 points, now at 99.23 [1] Currency Movements - Non-U.S. currencies experienced a broad rally, with the euro rising nearly 1% against the dollar [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.45% against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.6% against the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on U.S. 2 to 7-year Treasury bonds has decreased by at least 10 basis points during the day [1] Group 1 - The decline in Treasury yields indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - This movement in yields may reflect broader economic concerns or changes in monetary policy expectations [1]

美国国债收益率目前进一步下跌，10年期国债收益率最新下跌4.2个基点，至4.336%；2年期国债收益率 降至3.928%。 ...

每经AI快讯，7月31日，美国国债收益率目前进一步下跌，10年期国债收益率最新下跌4.2个基点，至 4.336%；2年期国债收益率降至3.928%。 ...

Core Points - The yield on US Treasury bonds continues to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.2 basis points to 4.336% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield has decreased to 3.928% [1]

来源：智昇财论 黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元/盎司，创下6月30日以来新低。美联储维持利率不 变、鲍威尔鹰派讲话打压降息预期，以及美国公布的超预期经济数据，共同构成了金价下挫的"完美风暴"。与此同时，美元指数强势上涨约1%， 达到5月29日以来最高点99.99，进一步加剧了黄金的压力。周四（7月31日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅反弹，目前交投于3281.76美元/盎司附近， 投资者还将关注国际贸易局势和美国6月份PCE等数据，周五还将公布非农就业报告。 美联储"鹰爪"撕裂黄金多头 美联储在7月30日的会议中以9:2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，这是连续第五次维持利率稳定。然而，会议结 果中两位理事的反对票成为市场焦点。特朗普任命的金融监管副主席鲍曼和理事沃勒明确表示支持降息25个基点，这不仅是30多年来反对票最多 的一次，也反映出美联储内部对政策路径的分歧。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上进一步浇灭了市场对9月降息的期待。他明确表示，美 联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定，并强调将根据未来经济数据谨慎行事。鲍 ...