尽管与特朗普关系密切的美联储理事米兰表示，当前利率远高于中性水平，并称自己会迅速降息150个 基点以达到该水平，但美国两年期国债收益率仍反弹至3.60%以上。瑞讯 银行高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，这类言论过于脱离现实，难以真正影响市场预期。一个明证就是两年期国债收益率 反而继续走高。这表明如果降息的幅度和速度缺乏合理依据，那么降息未必能有效降低长期借贷成本。 她强调，现实情况是，美联储不可能像在派对上发糖果一样随意降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to disappointing job growth in August, which has strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the two-year yield decreasing by 6.2 basis points to 3.529% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield dropped by 6.7 basis points to 4.109% [1] - The job growth in August was significantly below expectations, influencing market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading around $3556.29, with a slight increase of 0.15% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Recent data shows an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., reaching 237,000, which is above market expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [2] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated that labor market pressures remain a significant reason for supporting interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in September now nearly 100% [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum after a period of adjustment, successfully reaching previously set bullish target prices [3] - Despite a recent failure to maintain upward momentum, the overall bullish sentiment remains intact as long as prices do not fall below the 5-day moving average [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3700 and $4000, while support levels are at $3500 and $3447, providing potential entry points for investors [3]

Group 1 - Liz Truss criticizes the independence of central banks, suggesting they should be accountable to politicians, indicating a shift in the traditional view of central bank autonomy [1][3] - Truss supports Donald Trump's interventionist stance on the Federal Reserve, claiming that a "clearing moment" for global central banks is approaching [1][2] - The Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, is considering reclaiming some of the Bank of England's powers, reflecting a growing sentiment against central bank independence in the UK [3][4] Group 2 - Trump's potential legal battle over the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could lead to a more dovish majority in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), impacting U.S. monetary policy [2] - Market reactions to Trump's influence on the Fed include a decline in the U.S. dollar and a drop in short-term Treasury yields, indicating increased uncertainty regarding monetary policy [2] - The criticism of central banks is linked to rising concerns over economic management, with Truss highlighting the negative impact of bureaucratic decisions on housing affordability for young people in the UK [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the US dollar index and the surge in gold prices are primarily driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Friday, spot gold closed up $33.05, an increase of 0.98%, reaching $3,371.51 per ounce [1]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold priced in dollars relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [2]. - Following Powell's remarks, the two-year US Treasury yield dropped by 10 basis points to 3.69% [3]. Group 2: Powell's Speech Insights - Powell indicated that while he did not commit to a rate cut, changes in risk conditions may necessitate a policy adjustment [3]. - He emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment stability and inflation management, acknowledging the risks posed by tariffs on consumer prices [3]. - Powell's comments opened a potential pathway for a rapid rate cut in September, positively impacting various asset classes, including gold [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders currently estimate an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% before Powell's speech [4]. - Market analysts suggest that if the belief in a continued rate cut cycle solidifies, the US dollar is likely to weaken further [4]. - The importance of upcoming employment and inflation data before the Fed's decision-making meeting on September 16-17 is highlighted [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 4.7 basis points, reaching a daily high close to 4.34% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose over 4.6 basis points, surpassing 3.8% [1] - Cleveland Fed President Hammack indicated that based on current data, the FOMC may not lower interest rates in September [1] Summary by Category - **Interest Rates** - The 10-year Treasury yield hit a high of nearly 4.34% after a rise of about 4.7 basis points [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield exceeded 3.8% following an increase of over 4.6 basis points [1] - **Federal Reserve Insights** - Cleveland Fed President Hammack, a voting member for the 2026 FOMC, suggested that the FOMC is unlikely to cut rates in September based on existing data [1]

Group 1 - The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell by 25 basis points to 3.71% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Following the release of employment data, the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note fell to a one-month low of 3.8% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the two-year Treasury yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment regarding interest rates and economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields continued to decline following the release of the employment report, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 14 basis points to 3.813% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the two-year Treasury yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment following economic data [1] - The employment report may have influenced market expectations regarding future interest rate movements [1] - A decrease in Treasury yields often reflects increased demand for safer assets, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors [1]

Core Points - The yield on US Treasury bonds continues to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.2 basis points to 4.336% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield has decreased to 3.928% [1]