格隆汇2月20日｜周四（2月19日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌0.96个基点，报4.0731%，北京 时间22:00以来持续走低。两年期美债收益率涨0.62个基点，报3.4657%；30年期美债收益率跌0.29个基 点，报4.7030%。2/10年期美债收益率利差跌1.161个基点，报+60.530个基点。10年期通胀保值国债 （TIPS）收益率跌1.29个基点，至1.7747%，02:00披露美国财政部30年期TIPS发行结果时出现一波跳水 行情；两年期TIPS收益率跌2.04个基点，至0.7315%；30年期TIPS收益率跌0.77个基点，至2.4717%，30 年期TIPS拍卖结果出炉时从2.4950%跳水至2.47%。 ...

摩根大通Jay Barry牵头的利率策略师们表示：鉴于市场对美联储2026年降息力度和降息时间的预期太乐 观，倾向于"战术性地做空"美国两年期国债。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest data indicates that the resilience of the U.S. economy is strengthening, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday showed a significant upward surprise, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - Despite employment and inventory remaining in contraction territory, the rebound in the employment sub-index indicates that labor constraints on the economy may be easing [1] - Overall, these data reinforce the narrative that U.S. economic growth remains resilient [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - According to Tradeweb data, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 1.4 basis points to 3.582% [1] - The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury increased by 1 basis point to 4.286% [1]

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国10年期国债收益率短线波动超1个基点，刷新日高至4.26%上方，两年期美债收益率短线波动超1.5 个基点，刷新日高至3.59%上方。 标普和道指跌幅略微扩大至超过0.1%，现货黄金持稳于5270美元一 线，涨幅超过1.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the December CPI data in the US shows stable inflation, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, which is below the market expectation of 2.7%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3% [1] - Following the CPI report, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although the market still expects the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% during the upcoming policy meeting [1][2] Group 2 - The December CPI report is significant as it provides a comprehensive assessment of inflation trends after previous data was affected by measurement errors due to the government shutdown [2] - Despite a slowdown in inflation compared to previous years, prices for essential goods like food and insurance remain significantly higher than usual [2] - Market analysts noted that the core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% is relatively mild, especially considering the expected price rebound in December [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increase in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and expectations regarding interest rates [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.38 basis points to 4.1750% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.86 basis points to 3.4694% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw a rise of 1.33 basis points, reaching 4.8630% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes decreased by 0.285 basis points to +70.357 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield increased by 1.17 basis points to 1.8804% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield rose by 0.36 basis points to 1.0971% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield increased by 1.12 basis points to 2.6272% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the mixed performance of U.S. Treasury yields on December 30, with notable increases in some maturities and a decrease in others [1][2]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.56 basis points to 4.1258%, showing a significant increase around 20:00 [1][2]. - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.61 basis points to 3.4484%, remaining stable after the release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes at 03:00 [1][2]. - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 1.31 basis points to 4.81% [1][2]. - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 2.176 basis points to +67.539 basis points [1][2]. - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 0.36 basis points to 1.8651% [1][2]. - The 2-year TIPS yield fell by 1.39 basis points to 1.1423%, while the 30-year TIPS yield increased by 0.28 basis points to 2.5961% [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline on Monday, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.1121% [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.56 basis points [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.63 basis points, reaching 3.4627% [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 1.21 basis points, settling at 4.8019% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements on December 23, with the 10-year yield increasing slightly while the 30-year yield decreased [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.39 basis points to 4.1667% [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.13 basis points to 3.5280% [1] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield went up by 2.29 basis points to 3.7356% [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.02 basis points to 4.8272% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in U.S. Treasury yields, highlighting a decline in the 10-year yield and variations in other maturities, indicating market reactions to economic conditions and inflation expectations [1]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.78 basis points, closing at 4.1763% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 2.07 basis points, settling at 3.5015% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 0.31 basis points, reaching 4.8476% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread and Inflation-Linked Securities - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 1.278 basis points, now at +67.257 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 1.08 basis points, to just below 1.8965% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 1.64 basis points, reaching 1.1272% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield saw a rise of 1.47 basis points, now at 2.6180% [1]